Expect more unsettled weather today, as a front is stalled across the southern Miami Valley.  Here is a look at our weather conditions at 9am this morning:

Along the front, we’ve seen fog… reducing visibilities to almost zero in spots.  But the fog is quickly breaking up, good news for those traveling south and east today!  We’ve also had a few spotty light showers working along the front this morning… but most locaitons have been dry.  Yesterday, some areas received some pretty good rainfall, while others missed out:

Don’t worry, though… if you didn’t get enough, more rain is possible this afternoon and overnight.  A wave of low pressure located to our southwest will ride along the front today, reaching the Miami Valley late tonight:

That will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.  We will see dry conditions through the noon hour, but anytime after noon… overnight… into early Friday morning, we could see spotty showers and thunderstorms.

Friday afternoon, the storm will pull away, and drier, less-humid air will work in.  It looks like a great start to the weekend!

Jamie

We are well on our way to a record cool July!  We’re still running about 5 degrees below normal, with an average monthly temperataure (highs and lows averaged) of 69.3 degrees.  Amazingly, only TWO days this month we have been slightly above average.  Yesterday we were 2 degrees above average… and back on the 16th we were one degree above average.  We hit our normal right on the button on the 10th:

But all of the other days have been crazy cool!  This is supposed to be the hottest time of the year!  Here is a look at our normal high temperatures for the month of July:

Most of this month we’ve been in the 70s and low 80.  We’ve also managed to steer clear of any opressive humidity.  (Although today is a bit humid, as we are in a southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front.)  The front is moving slowly, and will keep us with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon.

Rain should taper off through the evening hours, and we’ll be dry overnight.  The first half of Thursday also looks dry, but the front stalls south of us, and will lift back north late in the day.  So showers and thunderstorms return–especially Thursday night into early Friday morning!

So we’ve been cool… but at least we’re still getting rain!
Jamie

We’re off to another nice start today… but as we head into the afternoon, things could change a bit.  High clouds are around this morning, but we are expecting some cumulus to again develop as we get warmer.  Daytime heating may be enough to spark some spotty showers/thunderstorms as we head into the afternoon hours.  Our airmass is becoming increasingly unstable as warmer and more humid air is advected in ahead of a cold front.  That slow-moving front is still well to our northwest:

Wednesday, that front will be moving through the Miami Valley, bringing us an even better chance of rain.  We’re not really expecting severe weather… just some good soaking rain… probably between a quarter of an inch to a half-inch.

Most of Thursday looks dry, but late in the day, another front will approach us:

So Thursday night into early Friday also looks wet.  The good news… right now the weekend looks dry and warm!

Have a great Tuesday!
Jamie

Today, we are in-between weather systems.  There is a cold front to our east, and one off to the northwest:

The one northwest of us will slowly work in our direction, and will start to affect us late Tuesday.  Most of Tuesday looks dry, with a slight chance of a spotty shower late in the day.  A better shot of rain will be Wednesday, as the front comes through.  Some locations could pick up a good soaking.  Here are the models’ forecast:

GFS Forecast Rainfall

NAM Forecast Rainfall

Both models have parts of the Miami Valley getting up to a half-inch of rain.  With the clouds and the rain around, it will also be cooler Wednesday afternoon… with highs in the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees.  So much for those normal late-July temperatures!

Jamie

Through the morning fog… I see a very nice afternoon for the Miami Valley!  At times this morning, visibility has been reduced to almost zero in spots.  Here is a picture of downtown Dayton taken from Miami Valley Hospital this morning:

Thanks to Bruce for sharing.  The fog should continue to mix out through 10am.  Then we’ll see plenty of sunshine!  And the sun will help warm temperatures across the area.  We should see highs near 83 this afternoon.  Finally, back in the 80s!

As of yesterday, our average monthly temperature is 68.9 degrees.  The coolest July on record is 69.2, so we are on pace to set a new record!  But will we?  Over the next week or so, temperatures will be closer to normal.  So we may end up evening out.  But it will still likely be *one of* the coolest Julys on record.

A cold front will approach on Saturday afternoon.  We’ll be warm and more humid ahead of the front… and it will be a breezy day:

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms… some could be strong.  We are in a slight risk for severe weather, with damaging winds and hail being the main threat:

Sunday looks nice… a lot of dry weather… but also the potential for a spotty shower/t’storm in the afternoon.  Not a wash-out weekend by any means… just keep an eye to the sky! 

Hope you have a good one!  High fives for FRIDAY!!

Jamie

After a good soaker yesterday (see rainfall totals above)… we are still dealing with light precipitaiton across the Miami Valley this morning.  Fog, mist and drizzle have all been reported.  And Live Doppler 2X is even tracking some sprinkles through Darke, Preble and Montgomery Counties.  It looks like the low-level moisture will hold strong until the afternoon hours, when we should start to see some improvement.  Possibly even some peeks of sunshine later today. 

High pressure is building in at the surface:

That usually means drier conditions, but not today.  We have to look at more than just one level of the atmosphere!  Up at about 18,000 feet, we are still in a trough… which means clouds/unsettled weather (and cooler than average temps):

So as we get into the afternoon, and the sun tries to peek out a little… this could help fire up more showers and thunderstorms.  Even into the evening!  Overnight we should dry out and see partial clearing.  There could be more patchy fog around Friday morning.  But we are in for a pretty nice Friday afternoon… with highs back in the 80s again!  Come on already, Summer!

Jamie

Soggy, rainy July day.

Welcome to Seattle…. I mean Dayton!  Overall this summer has been cool, but for the year we are still below average when it comes to rainfall.  So while we may want some warmer temperatures the rain is still nice.  Wednesday around 9:10 am this is what the radar looked like.  Nothing really heavy… but a nice swath of steady rain.  The kind that the soil can really absorb.  Often times in the summer we will see short bursts of heavy rain with long periods of dry weather.  This kind of precipitation doesn’t help out our gardens, farms and yards to much as most of the rain runs off into streams and rivers.  What we are getting today… slow and steady, really helps the soil and all the plants around.

I posted a few of the model runs below to give you a better idea of how much rain will fall.  The NAM has scaled things back slighly…. but as you can see the GFS is still shooting for a solid 1.5 to 2 inches of rain.  Personally… think 2 inches is a little much with this system… but if thunderstorms form this afternoon you cant even rule that out.  So for the Miami Valley it looks like a solid 1-2 inches of rain!  Enjoy

What a cool weekend!  Here are the official high temperatures recorded:

SATURDAY:  69… new record low maximum temperature
SUNDAY:  73

Today should be a bit warmer than yesterday, but still below normal, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s.  We continue to be cooler than average because of a cold pool of air/upper low that will be right over us today:

As we get a little daytime heating, we expect to see spotty showers and even a few thunderstorms develop during the afternoon today.  Just looking at what happened yesterday across Indiana, we could see some heavier rain in spots this afternoon.  Indiana also had several “cold air funnels” reported yesterday.  Here’s a picture of one of them from our sister station in Indianapolis:

You can see the funnel in the center of the image, just above the roof of the house.  Cold air funnels occur in a cool shallow airmass, unlike tornadoes… which spawn from severe thunderstorms, typically in warm and humid airmasses.  A cold air funnel rarely comes into contact with the ground, and are usually short-lived… although they can look threatening!   Watch for these today… send photos if you get them…  weather@wdtn.com.

As the week goes on, the upper low will slowly pull away.  So temperatures will begin to warm back into the low-mid 80s… especially by the 2nd half of the week.

Pam Elliot and Karrie Rossmiller from 2 News Sunrise went out to the Air Show Parade on Friday, and got to drive around a nice set of wheels!  Here are some pictures of their fun outing:

Pam Elliot

Karrie Rossmiller

Have a good day!
Jamie

Fall is in the air!  We’ll definitely be feeling more like fall than mid-summer as we head through the Air Show weekend!  Today, a cold front will move through during the afternoon hours… keeping us with cloud cover, and scattered showers.  We could hear a rumble of thunder, but real instability is lacking.  There may be come peeks of sun after the front comes through… say after 3pm.  Then clouds will roll back in for the overnight.  It does look like it will be dry for the Air Show Parade, which starts at 7pm up in Vandalia.  If you are planning to head out, check in with Chief Meteorologist Brian Davis before you do so… he’ll be live on the air beginning at 5pm with Live Doppler 2X!

The clouds and potential showers will keep temperatures in check today… and even though we may see  a little sun late today, cooler air will be spilling in behind the front.  So highs will be well below average… in the upper 70s.  It might even be a little chilly for you if you will be out late tonight!  Our lows will drop into the lower 50s.

Then on Saturday, check out the upper low:

We are right in the cold pool of air.  Our highs look to be limited to the upper 60s!  Who would have thought that on the 3rd weekend of July, we’d be this cool?!  We could even set a new record low high temperature for the day.  Does that make sense?

The coolest high temperatuare ever recorded on July 18th is 75 degrees.  We’re forecasting 68… which would be a new record!

Here’s your Air Show Forecast:

I hope you have a great fall weekend. 
Jamie

A cold front is moving through this morning, but you’d never know it!  It’s passing through dry… and we won’t be much cooler this afternoon.  In fact, today will probably be a few degrees warmer than yesterday!  We should, however, feel the humidity decrease as drier air works in.  Morning dew points are in the mid-60s… so it’s a muggy start:

But by this afternoon, those 50-degree dew points to the northwest will move into our area… more comfortable readings.  Afternoon highs, with plenty of sunshine, will be in the mid-80s.

Our next weather system is a closed low that will be dropping south for the weekend.  You can see it way up in Canada this afternoon (behind our banner):

But then the upper low moves over us for the weekend, keeping things unseasonably cool:

We’re still expecting highs on Saturday to be only near 70 degrees.  Some spots could be stuck in the upper 60s, if there is a lot of cloud cover.  Overnight lows in the low 50s, with outlying areas dipping into the upper 40s.  Yeah, that’s more like September than July!  With daytime heating, there could be some spotty showers Saturday afternoon, but they would likely dissipate as we head into the evening/overnight.  An isolated shower is possible again Sunday afternoon, but we expect mostly dry weather for the 2nd half of the weekend.

Temperatures are already running more than 4-degrees below average for the month of July.  Today will only be our second day in July, with temperatures in the mid-80s!  Do you believe it?  The only other day was back on the 10th… we reached 86-degrees.  This weekend (and even most of next week) will only help re-inforce the cooler conditions.   Don’t worry, though… summer’s not over yet.  A warm-up (even though it’s not showing up right now) should move in in the next couple of weeks.

Jamie

Our streak of bright blue skies and comfortably warm temperatures is ending today, as the clouds are increasing ahead of a cold front.  The front will move through tonight, and until it is east of us… we’ll continue to have the chance of rain.

This morning, there has been an ongoing complex of thunderstorms to our west.  You can see it working across Indiana at about 9am:

Click here to see the most current radar loop

That area of rain will continue to weaken as it moves into our more stable/drier airmass.  But it looks like we could see some rain in the western Miami Valley after 11am or so.  Another shot of thunderstorm activity will be possible as we head into the later afternoon/evening hours.   But it looks like the severe weather threat will be limited, as the morning rain will help stabilize our atmosphere. 

The front will be through by Thursday… so it looks like we return to dry, warm weather.  But not for long!  Remember a couple of blogs ago, I mentioned the possibly REALLY cool weekend?  It still looks like it could happen.  Showers are possible both Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 70s.  One particular model has Sat. only in the upper 60s!  The reason… an area of low pressure sitting over the Great Lakes:

850mb temps on Saturday could only be in the single-digits (in degrees Celsius)  That will be quite the refreshing air show forecast!  Hopefully the clouds/rain won’t hold back any of the flying…

Jamie

Hello, Im Kristine the weather intern. I attend the University of Toledo and have always had a facination with weather. I will be a senior this year and will be graduating in the spring with my bachelors degree in communications!

Looks like El Niño is making a return for the rest of 2009 and into 2010.

According to NOAA, over the next couple of months the water over the central and eastern tropical Pacific waters will be gradually warming causing a significant impact on global weather. El Niño influences the weather pattern, and its impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. This year, it will be expected to last through winter 2009-10. Should we be worried? El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niño’s have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

It’s not all bad! On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida. So for kid’s in our area, it could mean bad news for the much anticipated snow days. 

This is a picture of El Niño back in 1997 taken from space. The large white area represents a mass of warm water 30 times greater than all the Great Lakes!

Here are some facts about the phenomenom.

Temperatures are still running about 4 degrees below normal for the month!  It’s been a rather cool July, and with lower humidity, too.  This week, the below-average temps will continue… keeping things very comfortable!  Even through the upcoming Air Show weekend!  Do you believe it?!

Here is what’s going on this week.  Today and Tuesday… high pressure will be in control.  It’s building in from the North, so it’s brining in the comfortable airmass.  You can see the airflow around high pressure is clock-wise… so we’ll have a northerly wind: 

From this, we can expect warm days (low 80s) and cool nights (50s).  A cold front will approach on Wednesday, bringing the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It will not be a wash-out, but some of the thunderstorms in the afternoon could be a little strong:

The front quickly moves away, and we will get a reinforcing shot of “cool” air for the rest of the week.  Over the weekend, and upper low will sit over the Great Lakes, keeping temps in check.  We could end up with quite  a bit of cloud-cover (and maybe a few showers) over the weekend… especially on Sunday… if the low is where forecast models are hinting:

That would mean highs only in the 70s!  Is it really July?? 

Have a good week!
Jamie

The heat and humidity will be increasing today, as  a warm front pops north of us.  Expect temperatures to climb into the upper 80s, with dew points in the lower 60s.  That should feel more like July!

A cold front will begin to head our way tonight… bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.  For the overnight period, it looks like the best chance of rain will be after midnight, and in our Northern Counties:

Rainfall forecast through 8 am Saturday

A better shot of showes and thunderstorms for everyone comes on Saturday, as that front moves through:

Surface forecast, valid 8am Saturday

Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.  The SPC has highlighted us in a Slight Risk:

There could be a little rain in the morning, but the best chance for any severe weather would be in the afternoon and evening.  We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings on-air and online!  I hope you have a good Friday and a great weekend!

Jamie

Some of you may have seen the rainbow in the Western sky this morning!  I got quite a few phone calls… and some even sent in some pictures.  If you missed it… here it is…

Sorry for the missing Monday blog… we had some internet issues here at the station yesterday!

I hope you had a nice 4th of July holiday!  We got a lot of dry weather in over the weekend… unfortunately, the rain came ON the 4th of July.  So it wasn’t the best situation for cookouts/fireworks.  Thankfully the rain was light enough in the evening that most firework displays got underway without a hitch.  Just a little damp!  I’ve heard people talking about a lot of cool fireworks… from those that actually formed letters (in Troy)… to those that formed shapes (think Space Invaders).  Overall, an awesome display in many communities this year!

Some of us from Channel 2 went down to the Cityfolk Festival at Riverscape over the weekend.  I posted some pictures at the end of this blog!

A weak cold front will be passing through today:

That front will come with the chance of a few isolated showers really at any time, but most locations will stay dry.  HOWEVER… we are in a Northwest flow aloft.  

Whenever we are in a Northwest flow… we have to watch for areas of rain that develop TO our Northwest.  These could ride into our area, if they hold together.  Overnight, the models are forecasting an area of rain to move JUST to our west, across Indiana.  We’ll have to watch it… see the forecast path below:

So rain is not out of the question this week… but most of the week does look dry.  We need the rain.  July has been dry so far… we’ve only received .04″ of rain this month, and that puts us almost 3/4 of an inch below average already.  Our next chance of a good soaker won’t come until the weekend… so we’ll need to water water water!

July has also been a cool month so far… 6.5 degrees below average!  But I am expecting a big warm-up as we head towards week’s end.  Temperatures will be pushing 90 degrees by Friday… it could be our first 90-degree day of the month!

Now for those Cityfolk pics…

Have a good one!

Jamie

An upper level low is the reason temperatures have been so cool all week… its also the reason why July 4th was so cool with rain.  However temperatures look to get much warmer as we head through the week as our pattern begins to reverse shoving a ridge right into the heart of the United States.

Below is a posting of the 2oomb maps showing the location of the Jetstream by Thursday evening.  While it has moved to our north by this point it is close enough to let in some much warmer weather.  the 850 mb chart also has a plot of temperatures showing how the warmer air is working in aloft.

The raw data is posted above…. posted below is the 850 temperature chart with some embellishments.

I circled Ohio (in black) so that it would be a little easier to see… but that huge ridge in the middle of the country is going to gradually build in.  With that system humidity levels will rise and temperatures will warm back into the upper 80’s and low 90s.  Right now the models only have the heat building in temporarily with another cool front moving through by next weekend, but the further we get into July and August the shorter our cool downs will be.

The pesky upper low is pulling away… and that leaves us with a drier forecast today!  No more sprinkles/light showers!  We will still be running below average, but temps will be warmer this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s.  Lots of couds are lingering, too.  This morning, the back edge of the cloud cover is close–just about 100 miles away!  But it’s not making much eastward progress… so they’ll be around for awhile:

But things look good for Cityfolk Fireworks at Riverscape this evening!

All week, we’ve had about a 20% chance of a spotty shower in the forecast for the holiday weekend.  And now the latest data in overnight has the storm coming farther north… which puts us in a wetter situation for Saturday:

The good news for outdoor plans… we’re forecasting mainly showers… with just a SLIGHT chance of a rumble of thunder.  So while it may be a little wet… it at least won’t be as dangerous!  Check back with EZ tonight on Channel 2 beginning at 5pm… on the CW at 10pm… and back on Channel 2 at 11pm for the latest info. 

Tomorrow, if you are heading out, the best thing to do is check LIVE DOPPLER 2X to see where the rain is.  There is also the option to “loop” the radar, so you can put it in motion and see where the rain is heading!  The northeastern Miami Valley has the best chance of staying dry…

Happy 4th of July!  Enjoy the weekend!
Jamie