This time of year is pretty quiet in the Miami Valley.  The heat (not this year!) begins to loosen its grip and slightly cool, the severe storms of the spring are past us, and the winter snows are still months away.  However this year with our cool summer the only type of advisory anywhere close to us is a Frost Advisory.  Not to normal for August but still a sign of whats to come in just another month or two for us.

While the weather remains tranquil in our part of the country things are beginning to pop to our south.  In the Atlantic an area of disturbed weather has been identified as a “probable” area for development.

While the system is pretty far south for a tropical cyclone it appears to have a trajectory to the northwest.  With any luck this system will take the same path as Bill and stay out to sea.  The only problem is that the trough that protected the eastern seaboard from Danny and Bill looks like it will break down by the end of the week.  With the water in the Carribean still extremely warm this system will have to be watch closely. 

In the Pacific Hurricane Jimena has its eye set on the Gulf of California.  While the system is a powerful category four storm the mountains around the Gulf will weaken this system before it makes it into the US.  The only problem maybe an enhancement of the Monsoons over the southwest.  Areas in New Mexico and Arizona could see some solid moisture from this system leading to possible flash flooding later this week.

As we head into the last days of August, we’ll be feeling more like fall!  Today is the last warm/humid day in the forecast for awhile!  We have a front just south of us this morning, with a surface low located out near St. Louis:

Thursday evening and overnight we had some heavier rainfall in parts of the Miami Valley, while others missed out.  One of the highest amounts was in the Beavercreek Township area:

As the surface low tracks along the front, we still have a good shot of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight.  Any thunderstorm that develops will have the potential to produce that heavier rain again.  It may be wet under those Friday night lights!  It looks like there will be rain in the area for kickoff, with the activity tapering off as the games go on.  So be prepared and take along the rain gear!

The weekend looks mainly dry, with just a 20% chance of a spotty shower or sprinkle both Saturday and Sunday.  The big weather story over the weekend will be the COOLER air moving in!  Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 70s, and on Sunday… we’re talkin’ upper 60s!  As you send the kids back to school Monday morning, they’ll probably need pants and jackets vs. today’s more summery outfits!

Enjoy this taste of fall, and have a great weekend!
Jamie

As a front is stalled out across the Miami Valley, we are seeing quite a bit of fog this morning.  Here are some images from the northern Miami Valley, which has the thickest fog:

7:30 am

7:30 am

There could still be some showers in the area as Operation Football kicks off Friday evening.  Your best bet:  watch Chief Met. Brian Davis before you head out to the game… he’ll have all the details on 2 News Friday beginning at 5pm!  Another handy thing… on your cell phone you can look at Live Doppler 2X by going to www.wdtn.com.  You will be the hero of the football game when people around you are asking, “is this going to be a game-ender… or will the rain stop soon?”  You’ll have the answer! 

Another refreshing start today, with temperatures in the 50s.  We’ll be a bit warmer this afternoon, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s across the area.  We’ll see similar conditions on Wednesday, before that cold front drops in.

It looks like the front will hang around a few days before moving through over the weekend:

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

Then, the models look cooler for Sunday and next week, with another trough over the Great Lakes:

Not surprised, as this has been part of the weather pattern all year:  The long-term longwave trough over the Great Lakes!  What will the winter months bring?  We will have a better idea in Oct/Nov, as the new pattern sets up.  It does look to have an El Nino influence, which we’ve talked about before.  That can bring mild temperatures to our area over the winter months.  But will it?  Stay tuned…

There is an area worth watching in the tropics this morning.  It has a good chance of developing into the next named storm, which would be Danny:

Jamie

Today looks like a great day for late August!  We started the day with morning lows in the 50s across the area… sort of felt a little like fall:

This afternoon, we’ll see a lot of sunshine and some fair weather clouds.  The sun will help to warm us into the upper 70s.  Pleasantly warm!

High pressure will move off to our east on Tuesday, allowing winds to shift in from the south-southwest.  This will usher in warmer air, and we’re expecting highs in the low-to-mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

There’s no great rain chance this week, although a cold front will be dropping down late Wednesday:

There is not a lot of moisture with the front, so precip will be scattered at best.  Keep watering!

In tropical news, Bill is now a Tropical Storm, and it continues to move away from the US… back out to sea.  It’s losing the characteristics of a tropical cyclone, but winds are still up around 70 mph.  Over the weekend, Bill’s strong winds churned up waves that were blamed in the deaths of at least two people on the East Coast.

A 7-year-old girl died in Maine after she, her father and a 12-year-old girl were swept into the water Sunday off Acadia National Park’s Thunder Hole, where tourists often gather to watch waves crash into a crevasse and make a thundering sound while splashing high in the air.

In New Smyrna Beach along the central Florida coast, a 54-year-old swimmer died after he was washed ashore unconscious near rough waves fueled by Bill. The man, was pronounced dead at a hospital.

Jamie

From our collegues at the National Weather Service…

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
703 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009  
   
..EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR GREENVILLE IN DARKE COUNTY OHIO  
  
LOCATION…2 W GREENVILLE IN DARKE COUNTY OHIO  
DATE…AUGUST 19 2009  
ESTIMATED TIME…630 PM EDT  
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING…EF0  
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED…65 TO 70 MPH  
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…20 YARDS  
PATH LENGTH…0.10 MILES  
BEGINNING LAT/LON…40.1081 N / 84.6736 W  
ENDING LAT/LON…40.1087 N / 84.6723 W  
  
* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO  
  CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS  
  STORM DATA.  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH HAS CONFIRMED A  
TORNADO 2 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE IN DARKE COUNTY OHIO ON AUGUST 19  
2009.  
  
BASED UPON INFORMATION AND PHOTOGRAPHS RECEIVED FROM  
EYEWITNESSES…IT WAS DETERMINED THAT A BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO  
TOUCHED DOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD 2 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE NEAR  
STATE HIGHWAY 502.   
  
SINCE THIS TORNADO OCCURRED IN AN OPEN FIELD…NO CROP OR  
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS REPORTED.  
  
THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT  
WEATHER.GOV/ILN.  
  
FOR REFERENCE…THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO  
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:  
  
EF0…WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.  
EF1…WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.  
EF2…WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.  
EF3…WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.  
EF4…WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.  
EF5…WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.  

Finally, some less humid air is working into the Miami Valley today!  this morning, a cold front is coming through:

Behind the front, dew points are dropping into the lower 60s… and eventually upper 50s.  MUCH more comfortable air, and cooler temperatures are on the way, too!  We’ll be in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday!

BUT the weekend doesn’t look completely dry at this point.  We’re going to see some upper level features play a role in bringing us some sprinkles/light rain showers Saturday afternoon.  See an upper low dropping right over Ohio:

That should help kick off light precip… but that’s the keyword:  light!  And we don’t expect a wash-out at this point.  Just be ready to dodge a sprinkle or two!  Even though it will keep our weekend a tad unsettled, that trough is doing good things for the East Coast… it will help to steer Hurricane Bill back out to sea!  We are not expecting any landfall here in the US!

So what are your weekend plans?  The Great Darke County fair kicks off today… I hear it’s amazing!  And Summerfest at the Fraze in Kettering:

And I know UD students are moving in this weekend!  The weather looks cooler & comfy for all weekend activities!  Enjoy!

Jamie

Yesterday evening, we had some strong thunderstorms pass through the Miami Valley.  One particular thunderstorm had numerous reports of funnel clouds with it.  The definition of tornado is “a violently rotating column of air (coming from the base of a severe thunderstorm) that is in contact with the ground“.  Yesterday’s reports were strictly funnel clouds… ie, not touching the ground.  Here are some locations that saw this phenomenon:

ROSSBURG, DARKE COUNTY… FUNNEL CLOUD.  (Reported by a county official)
SIDNEY, SHELBY COUNTY… FUNNEL CLOUD.  (Reported by the public and law enforcement)
BELLEFONTAINE, LOGAN COUNTY… FUNNEL CLOUD.  (Reported by a trained spotter)
POTTERSBURG, UNION COUNTY… FUNNEL CLOUD.  (Reported by law enforcement)

There were lots of errie lowerings of the cloud base, as you can see from these pictures:

David Stanislaw took this near Greenville

Rhett Dziech took this in Newport, Shelby Co

When we have a good amount of moisture in place at the surface… like we have the past few days, with dewpoints around 70-degrees… thunderstorms, in general, will have lower cloud bases.  It can look very threatening when these cloud bases start to rotate, being so close to the ground.  The National Weather Service issues Tornado Warnings for certain thunderstorms that have the POTENTIAL to produce tornadoes.  That is why we may not actually GET a tornado, but the conditions are still favorable, and one could happen at any moment… without warning.

We use our radar, Live Doppler 2X, to track the thunderstorms through the area.  We also look at the wind fields within a storm, called velocity data.  It can show us if a storm is rotating.  Green colors are winds moving toward the radar, and red colors are winds moving away from the radar in the example below (we call this gate-to-gate shear).  You can see how that alerts us to the “rotation” in a storm:

We also had some very heavy rain in these thunderstorms.  Our Weatherchecker in New Carlisle reported 2.7″ of rain, as did another viewer calling in from Tremont City… which is just northeast of Springfield in Clark County.

Today, we are expecting more showers, thunderstorms… with the potential for heavy rain.  And we’re also in a slight risk for severe weather.  It looks like we’ll see the start of all of this around 9am or so, with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing over our area.  This first round of rain does not look like it will become severe, but we’ll have to watch how the atmosphere recovers later this afternoon and into the evening.  The SPC still has us in their Slight Risk today:

We’ll keep you posted on air and online!
Jamie

Our warm, muggy and unsettled weather pattern will continue through the end of the week.  I know I sound like a broken record this morning… mid 80s, humid, and scattered showers and thunderstorms… but this is going to continue until Friday.  Then things will change, and just in time for the weekend!  Here’s what’s going on…

First, a slow moving cold front is approaching us today:

That front really never brings relief, because a warm front will lift back through the area tomorrow:

Then, on Thursday night, a stronger cold front will move through… thanks to a pretty good storm at 500mb (18,000ft):

The SPC has placed us in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather late Thursday through early Friday as that front comes through.  It’s still 3-4 days out, but we’ll keep an eye on it.  And at ANY time over the next few days, we’ll have the chance to see some heavier rainfall.  Part of the remnants of Claudette will be with us, keeping this possible.

Speaking of the tropics, Hurricane Bill strengthened to a Category 2 storm overnight, and could become a major hurricane (Cat 3+) over the next couple of days.  Here is Bill’s forecast path.  Right now, it’s not expected to make landfall along the east coast, but should bring some rough seas:

Enjoy your day!
Jamie

Tropical storm Claudette is about to make landfall in Florida and as of 9pm on Sunday night its top winds are 45 knots or about 50 mph. 

While winds and storm surge from the ocean aren’t typically large problems with a system of this magnitude, flooding rain is.  The circulation brings in deep tropical moisture and if it is a slow enough mover can cause extreme flooding.

Right now the path for this system takes it into the Tennessee Valley.  Even though the system will be much weaker then it is currently, with the amount of humidity around and temperatures generally in the 80’s the lingering left over circulation will be a bulls eye for heavy rain.  While the path from the National Hurricane Center stops at Tuesday 1Am we can extrapolate a little further.

Usually a system of this size will follow the 500mb flow.  As you can see from the wind barbs this system has some forcing to the west pushing the low north and east.  Right now I would put Kentucky and West Virgina as the main track for the remnants of Claudette but we can’t be ruled out of the equation.

Things can change however… with no real strong current in place right now this system may decide to twist and turn a little more along the Gulf before moving northwards.  So continue to watch the forecast!  We’ll have to continue to monitor this situation.

It’s stretches of boring summer weather like this that keep the blogs short this time of year!  Our big ridge of high pressure is keeping things quiet for us.  The jet stream is north of us, and that is where the storms will be tracking:

We’re still expecting a slow warming trend over the weekend, but it does look like we’ll stay in the upper 80s.  Humidity will not be out of control, so it should be somewhat comfortable (especially in the shade!).  We have a lot of events going on this weekend:  the Miami and Mercer County Fairs start tonight, and so does the GermanFest Picnic!  One of our bloggers mentioned the picnic… so here you go, Brin, your own personal forecast:

Here’s more info on the PICNIC and the FAIRS.

Well, Tropical Depression #2 has weakened, and the National Hurricane Center is no longer putting advisories out for that area of disturbed weather.  There are still a few features to watch in the Atlantic, you can see them shaded in on the map below:

While it is quiet now, it only takes one major hurricane making landfall to put the hurricane season in the record books.  So we’ll wait… and watch…

I hope you have a wonderful weekend!
Jamie

We’ll see a slow warming trend over the next few days, with plenty of sunshine, too!  A very good stretch of summer weather for the local pools and splash parks (which I will likely visit!)

A big ridge of high pressure is back, and will have temperatures on the rise:

We should be up right around 90-degrees Saturday afternoon.  Then the humidity will set in.  A return to sticky weather is in the works… we’ll notice it a little bit Saturday, but definitely on Sunday.  The next good shot at rain will come starting Tuesday, so it looks like we need to start watering again!

TD #2 is still a Tropical Depression, but it looks like it still has potential to become Tropical Storm Ana in a couple of days. 

Enjoy your day!
Jamie

The cold front is to our east now, and high pressure is building in.  This has shifted our winds in from the north, and more comfortable humidity levels are with us.  Dew points are about 10 degrees lower this morning than yesterday, and that feels refreshing!

This high will provide quite a bit of sunshine over the next few days, and dry conditions.  But as it slowly moves off to our east, we will see a slow warming trend!  By the weekend, the door opens wide for Gulf moisture to spread back into the area:

That means higher humidity again!  Overall, the weekend looks dry, but we can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two in the afternoon hours.  Most locations will stay dry, and if you do get any rain, it will be brief!  So don’t cancel your outdoor plans… just have a temporary shelter planned

In tropical news, we’ve been watching an area of unsettled weather off the coast of Africa for the past few days.  It has now formed into Tropical Depression #2, and could become the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season!  It would be “Ana”.  There are also three other areas of interest to keep an eye on:

Finally!  Some tropical action!  The last time hurricane season was off to this late of a start… it was the year of Hurricane Andrew.  Erik and I looked back at the 500mb charts during 1992 (the year of Andrew)… and the pattern was similar to what we’re in right now.  Interesting.  Here is the forecast path of TD2 as of this morning:

Have a good Wednesday!
Jamie

You can definitely feel the moisture in the air this morning!  Our dew points are up right around 70 degrees, and it feels sticky/uncomfortable out there!  We’ll continue with muggy and warm weather today, ahead of an approaching cold front.  We’ve had this big ridge of high pressure controlling our weather the past couple of days:

That has kept us dry, hot and humid!  We’ll see some changes as a wave aloft moves in for Tuesday:

That will help push a cold front through our area on Tuesday.  So the chance of showers and thunderstorms is there beginning this afternoon!  We could see some isolated severe storms today, and the SPC has placed us in a Slight Risk for severe weather:

Tuesday, the severe risk shifts to our East, but we could still see some spotty thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon hours.

Wednesday looks dry and, finally, less humid!  Temperatures will also be a bit cooler, with highs in the mid-80s.

Have a great week!
Jamie

Today will be the last day with pleasantly warm temperatures and low humidity.  A warm front will move through tonight, increasing our clouds, and ushering in the hot and humid weather we expect this weekend.  Most of the forcing will stay to our north, so there’s not a huge threat of showers/thunderstorms as the front moves through.  A few sprinkles are possible, however.  The stronger thunderstorms will be up in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest:

And on the other side of that front the heat and humidity will build in over the weekend!  We’ll see highs near 90-degrees on Saturday, and we should be into the lower 90s on Sunday.  The humidity will also be high, so heat index values could be into the mid-90s.  It will definitely feel more like summer!  If we hit 90 degrees for three days in a row, it would be considered a “heat wave”. 

Stay hydrated, and remember:  WATER is best!
Enjoy your weekend!
Jamie

High pressure is building in today, and will bring us a very nice afternoon.  We started off cool this morning, with temperatures down into the 50s.  Winds were light, and skies clear… the perfect viewing conditions for our full moon.  Here’s a picture of the moon setting early this morning in Oakwood:

This is the Full Sturgeon Moon… named after the large fish found in the Great Lakes.  The fishing tribes caught a lot of sturgeon during this month, hence the name.  This moon is also known as the Full Red Moon, the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon to other tribes.

Humidity levels stay low today, so we’ll have a comfortably warm afternoon with lots of sunshine.  It will also be another good sleeping night to keep the windows open tonight… but perhaps the last one for awhile.  Heat and humidity will increase as a warm front moves through our area Friday night.

The weekend still looks HOT, with highs in the 90, and dew points well into the 60s.  Here comes Summer!

Speaking of Summer… yeah, this is also Hurricane Season!  You’d never really know it, as the Atlantic hasn’t even had a named storm yet!  In fact, we’ve only had one tropical depression.  But people living along the coast can’t let their guard down just yet.  Back in 1992,  Hurricane Andrew formed in mid-late August.  It became a tropical storm on August 17th…  and ended up as a hurricane on the 22nd.  Andrew finally made landfall in Southeast Florida as a Category 5 storm.

As of now, there really aren’t any big areas of interest showing up, but it’s something the National Hurricane Center is watching closely.  The peak of Hurricane Season is from mid-August to late October.  Here is this year’s name list: 

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Anyway, enjoy these next two nice days… before it gets quite hot and sticky!
Jamie

After yesterday’s heavy rainfall across the region, we’ll get some time to dry out before more rain moves in at the end of the week.  Here are the final rain totals for our area:

The northern Miami Valley really missed the heavy rain, with just over a few one-hundredths of an inch reported in Greenville.  The southern counties perhaps had too much of it, with almost 3″ in Middletown!  The cold front is moving through this morning:

That will keep us with the slight chance of a spotty shower or thunderstorm, mainly south of Dayton, this afternoon.  Then an area of high pressure will build in behind the front for tonight and Thursday.  We could see some patchy fog develop tonight.  Then lots of sunshine is in the works for Thursday afternoon.  It looks pleasantly warm, with lower humidity!  Enjoy it, because it’s not going to last!  The heat will certainly build in this weekend… highs in the 90s.  Yep, summer is finally here!

Jamie

We’ve had some very heavy rainfall already this morning.  A handful of Flood Advisories have been in effect, mostly for the southern counties.  Warren County also had a Flash Flood Warning, when very heavy rain trapped people in their vehicles in between Dearfield Township and Morrow.  Here are some initial rainfall totals… this rain fell between 4:30am and 10:30am:

Cedarville:  .53″ in a half-hour, with pea-sized hail
Centerville:  .9″
Fairborn:  .2″
Kettering:  1″
Middletown:  2.75″
Tipp City:  .7″, with penny-sized hail
Vandalia:  .59″
Xenia:  1.48:
Hamilton:  .72″

Indianapolis storm spotters report 6 to 10 inches of water over a number of roads downtown!

And Louisville beats us all… a Flood Emergency:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=30150&source=0

It’s a stormy start this Tuesday morning!  Finally, some severe weather!  It’s been a very boring severe weather season for weather fans… but it’s quite active today!  We’ve had reports of severe hail… Hagerstown, IN had 1″ hail, and our Weatherchecker up in Tipp City called in with penny-sized hail, as well.  It is a real lightning show right now with some extremely heavy rain.  If you have to go out in this… you’re going to get drenched!  I will post some morning rainfall totals after the thunderstorms move out of our area.

But it won’t be over just yet, as more thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.  We could once again see severe thunderstorms, with hail being the main threat.  But we’ll also have to watch for damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.  We’re in a slight risk, per the SPC:

Humidity has also returned today, as a southwesterly flow is pumping in the warmer, moist (and unstable) air.  Summer is finally here!  And we’ll really be feeling it as we head into next weekend.  Take a look at the heat that will build into our area.  Frist, you can see hot air located in the West/Southern Plains on Thursday:

Then, over the weekend, it all expands our way:

Well be hot and humid, with highs near 90 both Saturday and Sunday.  Unfortunately, just in time for 2-a-days. 

Have a good one!
Jamie

While much of the west coast has been breaking record highs left and right (Portland, Seattle, Spokane),  We here in the east have been dealing with the exact opposite… Chilly temperatures!  The numbers are in for the month of July and while we got close… we were just off of the mark for the number one spot of coldest July on record.

Here are the numbers from Dayton….   The numbers are a little different from what we were posting about a week ago, the records however have now been corrected.

1.  69.2  1947

2.  69.6  2009

3.  69.9  1984

4.  71.6  2007

5.  71.9 2000

Over all this July came in as the second coolest on record.  The reason for it… a large east coast trough, you can see it in the picture below.

With the jet stream to our south cooler air from Canada has had an easy time getting down into the Midwest and Northeast.  While this pattern will continue to hold firm this week… there are a few bubbles that will briefly push the jet northward for a few days.  The first will come on Monday and Tuesday allowing temperatures to get to about average.   The second will take place Friday and go into the weekend.  Right now it looks like some of the warmest air this season could push numbers as high as the lower 90s by the time Saturday and Sunday roll around.  Of course forecasts can change… but it looks like some August heat is on the way.