It’s a chilly start this morning, as temperatures are in the upper 40s across much of the Miami Valley.  Tomorrow morning, however, will be even colder!  In fact, by early Thursday, we will likely see the coldest temperatres since April!

The National Weather Service has issued a FROST ADVISORY for our area tonight, as patchy frost is possible:

The reason?  We have a cooler fall airmass in place, and as high pressure builds right over us tonight, that will allow winds to die down and skies to clear:

These are perfect conditions for radiational cooling.  Any heat of the day will *really* be able to escape back out into the atmosphere.  The coldest spots will be the lower-lying areas, and locations away from buildings, trees or other objects.

Thursday afternoon looks great, however.  After that cold start, we’ll warm up into the upper 60s with lots of sunshine.  You may notice some clouds increasing towards the end of the day, however, as our next storm approaches.  That will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area on Friday.

Jamie

It is fall, it is fall.
The leaves are falling everywhere!
That means it’s fall!

That is a song from my daughter’s favorite childrens’ educational programming!    It is so funny as she gets older, she is starting to sing these songs… and do the dance moves, too!  She also sings songs I don’t know, which she must get from her friends at “school”.  I did decipher the “Baby Bumble Bee” song… but there is another one that goes, “How, how… how, how”… and I have NO idea what she is saying!  Lol…

Anyway, back to the original song… it is DEFINITELY feeling like fall today!  Morning temperatures range from the mid-40s to low-50s across the region.  I have been calling this “cool”… but I’ve had a few viewers chime in on Twitter/Facebook… they think it’s actually cold!  Well, if today is cold for you… it’s going to be a looong winter!    We will actually be even cooler on Thursday morning, as an area of high pressure builds right over us:

Skies will be clear, and winds will be light.  Combine that with our already cool fall airmass… and we have a recipe for patchy light frost!  Thursday morning’s temperatures will likely be in the mid-to-upper 30s… so some locations just might see the first frost of the season.  If you have vegetation you would like to save, that is the morning tender plants will be in jepordy!

Jamie

A strong cold front is moving through the area this morning.  Wow, it’s going to really bring us some strong winds today… a skirt-alert!  Not one of those days to wear a skirt… or you could get into some trouble.    If you’re a hat person, you’ll need to hold on to it  tight, too!  The good news:  we won’t have to worry about inside-out umbrellas, as the rain for the most part has come to an end. 

Here is our morning weather map, cold front moving through:

Notice the cooler air behind the front… I circled Indianapolis, with a temp in the upper 50s this morning, and winds already gusting up near 30 mph.  We will see our winds generally sustained 20-30mph, with gusts as high as 40-45 mph this afternoon.  Secure the law furniture!  Bring in the trash cans!  And as you’re driving around, watch for things flying across the streets! 

We have a WIND ADVISORY in effect for most of the Miami Valley today… it expires at 2am tonight:

Not a good day to be driving a high-profile vehicle!  The winds will tend to die down a bit tonight (although it will still be breezy).  Then, the winds increase again for Tuesday afternoon, but not quite as *gusty* as today.  Highs Tuesday will only be in the upper 50s!

Wednesday… finally, the winds die down.  Then we’ll see a slow warming trend towards the end of the week.  But not before some locations dip down into the upper 30s!  Our first real taste of fall!

Jamie

Generally July, August, and most of September tend to be pretty cool as most of the northern hemisphere is mild to warm and there is little relatively little contrast in temperature from Canada to Mexico.  But as the fall presses on and the daylight hours fade, enough cool air builds up to start causing a little action across the states.  That’s exactly what we have going on tonight.

Our first powerful cold front is taking shape in the plains and is rapidly headed this way.

This line of showers and thunderstorms out to our west is the first beast we have to face tonight.  According to the S.P.C.  (Storm Prediction Center).  We are under a slight risk for severe weather tonight.

While I feel the showers and thunderstorms that move the the area will be relatively weak (little lightning, low chance for hail… rain only moderate to heavy for a very short period.)  The severe threat is with the wind.  Since winds tend to be a little faster higher up in the atmosphere, these showers / storms tonight have the potential to bring some of these higher winds down to the surface.  (So this may be one of those scenarios where we have a severe thunderstorm warning issued when the system does not even contain lightning!).

Then you have the winds directly behind the system.  At 9pm on Sunday evening the gusts have decreased just a hair.  But you can clearly see the front where the wind picks up and the barbs change to the Northwest.  Those winds will be enough to throw some lawn furnature and a few garbage cans around, perhaps even bring down a few old trees.

As the low pressure moves this way it looks as if those winds will be high and steady through much of Monday, so the weather service issued a wind advisory for us with a few high wind warnings up around the Great Lakes.

Look for winds to gradually decrease as we head through the night time hours on Monday… but still on the breezy side Tuesday.

Then to top it all off temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.  If we see enough clearing Tuesday or Wednesday night some locations may even see their first 30s of the season!

-Erik Zarnitz

Hello,  Bloggers!

I was out yesterday with a little girl who had Croup!  I know of at least two other children that had/have it, so it is going around.  There is a LOT going around, and it’s only going to get worse as the weather gets colder… and we start spending more and more times couped up indoors with eachother.  Just remember that hand washing!!

Today, a frontal boundary is stalled out to our south.  This is keeping us in a mild, moist flow… and will keep the chance of rain through tonight:

Most of the rain will come in the form of light showers, but we may also see a few isolated heavier pockets.  I do not expect any thunderstorms, but it will continue to be pretty muggy.

Right now, Friday looks relatively dry, but we can’t really rule out a spotty shower.  The rain chances will be going up, unfortunately, for Friday night football games.  We’ve had such a good stretch of high school football weather, hopefully most games will not see any rainfall!

Here is our cutoff low today… still out there:

And here is it Saturday, FINALLY coming through… bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the Dayton area:

Then, a stronger cold front will affect us on Monday.  After that, it will REALLY feel like fall!

Jamie

As you know there are many types of web browsers- Internet Explorer, Safari, Google Chrome, Firefox and Opera.

Which is your favorite?  I prefer Firefox and Safari. ( I am a mac guy and that is what turned me onto Safari for PC)

And by the way WDTN.com performs great on all the latest versions of these browsers.

How is WDTN is way ahead of the other media outlets in Dayton?
1. YouTube
2. Mobile
3. iPhone
4. Social Media platforms (Facebook, Twitter)
5. Weather coverage. (Check out all of our weather maps and radar loops)

Today Fall will begin at 5:18pm.  But as we’ve been discussing… it is going to feel more like summer!  Here is why:

There is a front to our west… nearly stationary over the Central Plains:

That front will move LITTLE over the next few days, leaving the Gulf Open!  Humid air will continue to dominate our forecast as we head through the second half of the week.  We won’t see big changes until the weekend, when the main storm is finally forecast to move through.  That storm is a ”cutoff low, weatherman’s woe” sitting over Colorado this morning:

This storm has actually brought snow to parts of Colorado!  It will eventually start to head our way by the end of the week.  Friday looks like a relatively dry day… still warm and humid.  Then the storm moves through our area on  Saturday, with another chance of rain, followed by cooler temperatures.  Next week should feel much more like fall!  We’ll continue to tweak the forecast as the situaiton evolves… again, cutoff lows can be very difficult to forecast!

We’ve been talking a lot about flooding problems in the Southeast on Channel 2 over the past several days.  Six people are confirmed dead because of the torrential rainfall.  The rain totals are amazing… one of our Weatherbug stations received 14.02″ of rainfall in one day!  That was at Stone Mt., Georgia… unbelieveable!  Notice today, there are still many flood warnings in that region:

We are not expecting rainfall quite like that, but any thunderstorm that develops over the next few days will have the potential to produce a pretty good downpour. 

Have a good day!
Jamie

After a very quiet week last week, things are looking more active!  This morning, we’re tracking some showers through the area… and the chance of scattered showers (and even a rumble of thunder) will continue through the afternoon.  The set-up at the surface is a little complex… there is a surface low near Chicago, along a stationary front:

Notice another cold front across the Central Plains.  This front will eventually make it here Wednesday… until it comes through, we will remain unsettled.  Expect humid conditions ahead of these features, with dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s.  Today the rain chances are the highest, and with the cloud cover and potential for rain, our high temps will only reach the mid-to-upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday we’re running a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, but I do think we’ll see more sunshine.  So temperatures will be warmer these days–climbing into the lower 80s.  We’ve got a summer-like airmass in place as we head into fall (it starts Tuesday at 5:18pm!).

Have a great day!
Jamie

Another great weather day across the area!  This seems to be the story of the season!  We are usually saying, “we don’t get to many perfect days like this”… but it seems like this summer, it’s all we’ve had!  Summer, by the way, officially ends next week.  We will welcome fall on Tuesday the 22nd at 5:18pm.  Then it will be fun to watch the new fall/winter  weather pattern set-up!

The cutoff low we discussed yesterday has not moved at all:

It will likely retrograde (move West) and then become absorbed as stronger energy moves in from the northwest:

That means we stay with quiet conditions as we head into the weekend!  Another great Friday night for high school football!  This is three weeks in a row with dry, comfortable conditions.  Here is your Operation Football Forecast:

Saturday also looks dry for the Air Force Marathon:

And finally, the chance of rain moves in on Sunday.  That bigger storm will eventually affect us with some showers and even a few thunderstorms.  But the problem then becomes another cutoff low!  Yes, this system is also forecast to become detached from the main flow:

This is why next week’s forecast is not set in stone… we have to see what happens with this main storm.

Have a good one!
Jamie

A cutoff low has been sitting over the same area for days, bringing flooding problems to parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee.  First, here is the low… which has been in virtually the same spot for a few days:

And notice the extent of the flood warnings in that area:

That low pressure center will weaken as it lifts northeast slowly over the next two days.  It will get pretty close to us on Friday:

It will bring moisture just south of us on Friday; perhaps as far north as Cincy.  So it’s something to watch, but right now it does look like we should remain dry through the first half of the weekend.  Then things will change on Sunday as a stronger storm heads our way.  This one looks to bring a better shot of rain as we remain unsettled through the first half of next week!

If you’d like to interact more with us, be sure to follow us on Twitter!

And become a fan on Facebook… we have 2 pages, 2 News Sunrise and WDTN.

Have a great day!
Jamie

Gooood Morning, Bloggers!  It is good to be back.  I was away the past couple of days… at Camp Joy, with the Kettering Leadership Academy.  What a fun experience!  I bonded with eleven strangers, learned a lot, and had some very fun adventures!  I am really looking forward to this exciting year in the KLA.

As for our weather… well, that’s not QUITE as exciting!  There are no big storms heading our way, so rain chances are rather slim for awhile.  Today will be another warm afternoon, with temperatures running above normal.  Highs will be in the low-to-mid 80s, much like they were on Monday.  But notice a weak cold front off to our northeast, running from Maine through Wisconsin:

This is what we call a “backdoor” cold front, because it comes in from the Northeast, rather than from a westerly direction.  The front looks to come through overnight with an increase in cloud cover… but no big rain chance.  We will be slightly cooler on Wednesday behind the front, and the pleasant weather will continue as we head through the second half of the week!

I hope you continue to enjoy a very comfortable September!
Jamie

While it isn’t very likely… it’s still something we are all keeping a close eye on.   And if you’ve been watching the US Open already know about it.  It’s the low pressure system just off the coast of Delaware and New Jersey.  These systems normally move off to the north and east… (this common movement and the strong northeasterly winds at ground levelis actually why these kinds of systems are called Nor’easters!)

However in this case it looks as if the system is going to weaken and retrograde west… basically meaning that it may get close enough to the region to give us a chance for some rain on Saturday.

While computer models are starting to indicate that this will happen.  In my experience it may get close, even effect eastern Ohio.  But for it to get this far west of the mountains is a real task.  We’ll still have to watch it, and that’s why I put in a 10% chance for rain on Saturday… but I still don’t buy it just yet.

After a couple of mornings with dense fog across the region, things looked a lot better today.  Winds were a bit higher, and that helped to “mix” the air, preventing any fog from getting too thick.  We also have an easterly wind, which is typically a “drying” wind… and that helped out, too!

As we head toward a weekend full of “fall fun”… the weather is improving!  That pesky slow-moving Low Pressure center will continue to pull away through Friday.  Today, it is off to our East… as are the *best* rain chances.  However, we are right on the edge of a 30% chance to see a spotty shower or two across the area today:

Dark green=higher rain chances… Light green=slight chance

On Friday, the chance of rain will be even lower!  We’re expecting mostly dry weather… with just an isolated shower possible.  Then, Saturday and Sunday look fabulous for all the weekend fun.  Let’s see… we have the Italian Fall Festa, the Greek Festival, the Richmond Fall Festival, the OSU game, the Popcorn Festival… what to do, what to do?! 

Jamie

Most of the holiday weekend was great, but then the upper low moved in on Labor Day.  This low is cut-off from the jet stream, so there are no strong winds aloft to “carry” it through our area.  As a result, we have a very slowly moving system… keeping our weather a little unsettled.  The low is visible on the 500mb chart… about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere:

The showers and thunderstorms that form under this low are also slow-movers!  That has meant areas of heavier rain in spots… and we’ve had a handful of flooding problems over the past few days.  On Tuesday, our Weatherchecker in Cedarville out in Greene County reported 1.7″ of rain in just 45 minutes!  Another spot with high water problems… the city of Springfield.  Route 72 was flooded on RaMar Drive.

Watch for similar problems today, with heavy/prolongued rain in any given thunderstorm that fires up.  The best chance for rain will be after the noon hour, as we get that daytime heating.

Another thing this upper low is bringing:  cold air funnels!  Erik did a great story on them yesterday.  You can read more about his report… and see some video of a cold air funnels here:

COLD AIR FUNNELS

Rain chances will taper off as the low pulls away this weekend!  Enjoy the day!
Jamie

Picnicular is a word created by one of our Facebookers!  It perfectly descirbes today’s lunch hour forecast.  75 and partly to mostly sunny!  What a great day for a picnic!  If you are on Facebook, be sure to join the “2 News Sunrise” and “WDTN” fan pages!

We’re seeing a little bit more cloud cover today– it won’t be the crystal clear blue sky of the past 2 days.  The reason:  there is an upper level disturbance moving across Kentucky.  The rain won’t affect us here, but the cloud cover will.

Beyond this, more sunshine and comfortable temps for most of the upcoming holiday weekend.  There is just a slight chance of a few spotty showers on Monday afternoon, as the humidity starts to come up a bit.    Then, most of next week we keep a chance of a spotty shower… the best chance coming towards the end of the week.  Short and sweet today… not much going on!

Remember, we’re not only blogging and on FB, but we are also on Twitter!  You can find a list of us Tweeters here:

Have a great weekend!
Jamie

Good morning, Bloggers!

I hope you enjoyed reading about Darren’s summer in Oklahoma!  He may pop-in sometime when he is on break over the winter.  But we wish him well in his last year of studies in Athens! 

After a very cool July, August also ended on a cool note.  Temperatures continued to run below normal.  Here are the official August 2009 Statistics:

That “coldest” temperature reading was taken a couple of days ago, and it was actually the coldest August temperature recorded in TWENTY-TWO YEARS!  With this cool summer, you may think Global Warming is a bunch of talk… but check out the rest of the world… it’s been a warm summer in most other places.  Take July for example… here’s what it looked like:

You can see, the US had the BIGGEST cool anomaly!  With the exception of a few other places, most of the world experienced a warmer than normal July.

Anyway… Wow, this week is one of the best weeks of the year!  There is a big area of high pressure that is anchored over the Great Lakes.  It’s not budging!  Here’s what the surface looks like today:

Pretty tranquil!  And here’s a look at the forecast for Saturday:

Still there!  That is good news for all of the fun festivities on this “last weekend of summer”.  Kettering has the Holiday at Home events, Piqua has a fun festival, the Rennisance Festival kicks off in Waynesville, and the Montgomery County Fair will be in full swing.  The weather looks to be cooperating… attendance will likely be high. 

The tropics are quite active, as well.  We have Hurricane Jimena in the Pacific… affecting the Baja Penninsula:

This storm will bring 1o to possibly 15 inches of rain to that area, as it slowly makes it’s way northward.  They could use the rain in California (bcs of the wildfires) but it doesn’t look like much of this moisture will make it there.

Another storm to watch is Tropical Storm Erika.  This is in the Atlantic today, near the Leeward Islands:

It is forecast to remain a Tropical Storm as it makes its way toward the Bahamas.  Let’s keep an eye on this one, as well.  It is an exciting time of year, as hurricane season is nearing it’s peak activity!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Hey bloggers! It’s Darren, the intern from last summer. I stopped in today to pay a visit to the 2News Weather Team. Jamie let me write today’s blog, so I’ll go over my summer in Oklahoma.

I spent 10 weeks at the Storm Prediction Center, the agency that issues severe weather watches and outlooks. I completed some research concerning significant severe wind (75 mph+) and hail (2″+) during my internship. My advisers, a lead forecaster and mesoscale assistant forecaster, started the project studying significant tornadoes (EF-2+), and I did the null-case, or non-tornadic, aspect of it. I took over 1200 reports of wind and hail, and I downloaded model data for the location and time of each report. Then, I was able to make spreadsheets and graphs showing temperature, dew point, and wind speed at different levels of the atmosphere (surface, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb). I compared my findings to those of my advisers, and here are some of the main points: 1) The wind speeds are higher for tornadoes than hail and wind events, especially at 850mb (500mb speeds are higher as well); 2) Dew points at the surface are lower for hail events while air temperatures are lower for wind events; 3) There is not much difference in temperature at 700mb and 500mb. There are some variations in each finding due to seasonality and geography, but in general, tornadic environments are warmer, moister, and windier.

There is still some work left on the project, however. The next couple months, I plan on looking at radar images at the time of the report to determine if a supercell or bow line caused the report. I also plan on making a poster of my presentation and take it to Atlanta in January for the American Meteorological Society annual conference. Well, I’m off to Athens to complete my last year of undergraduate study at Ohio University. Take care!

Darren