Next Storm Already Taking Shape…
February 8th, 2010 at 7:53 am by Jamie Jarosik under Weather
We got a few days to dig out of the Friday/Saturday storm… but now another system is organizing to our West, and will move in late tonight. A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect from midnight tonight through Wednesday at 6pm. Let’s take a look at this storm in detail.
First, a check at the 500mb forecast:
The image above is valid at 1pm on Tuesday. You can see a vigorous storm just to our west, and it’s heading our way. Ahead of the storm, snow will develop across the area… say after 1 or 2am tonight. By the Tuesday morning commute, we could have 1 to 3 inches of snow on top of what’s already out there.
Now we check the 700mb level, where we track relative humidity and lift:
Click to enlarge
The dark green color represents 90% relative humidity, and the dark red line with a -5 represents an area of pretty good lift. With that much moisture and lift, it’s a good bet snow will continue through the afternoon hours. Once again, there is some concern as to how far north an area of warmer air will surge. Futuretrac is showing the surface map for the commute home early Tuesday evening:
You can see the “rain” area (green color) is moving closer to our southern counties. This same thing happened with the last storm, and that really held down the snowfall totals across the south. While areas north of I-70 saw over a foot of snow, some locations south and east of town only saw 3 to 4 inches. So we’ll have to keep an eye on how long any rain will mix in, because that would mean less snowfall south… and more to the north again. On average, however, we are expecting storm totals by Wednesday morning in the area of 4 to 7 inches…. {based on new data in this morning}
So accumulating snow will once again be the main impact with this system. However… another impact may be just as high. The wind. Winds will increase behind the storm on Wednesday, gusting to 40-45 mph at times. This is really going to cause blowing and drifting of snow… and travel will still be impacted even after the storm is past us. We will continue to keep you posted on the trends with this system, both on air and online! Stay safe!
Jamie
hi Jamie I’m going with 6-9 inches of snow on friday i only called for 6-9 inches but got 13 inches out of that storm so we’ll see what happens. I do think that with the weight of the snow that we already have powerlines and tree limbs could come down since the winds will be strong.
New data out this morning… higher amounts. 4 to 7″ would be a good estimate. The heaviest will come Tuesday afternoon… and we’ll def have to watch the power outages on Wed with the winds increasing.
Maaaaaaaaaaan. I hope March isn’t bad. Two snow storms within the first week of February…wooo.
This is delightful! Hoping for another snow day tomorrow
My back isn’t looking forward to shoveling out again though! Thanks for the update Jamie.
Sarah,
Thankfully this snow will be lighter… so that may help save your back!
if i go with historical memory, I foresee less than expected snow for south of 70. I have watched the snow here for almost 30 years that I can remember and a much greater than 50% of the time the predicted snow fall amounts for south of 70 are bloated figures. it starts out as (example) 6-9 inches and the when all is said and done there may be 2. personally i enjoy the snow. build character behind the wheel. it separates the bad drivers (GET OFF THE PHONE) from the experienced drivers. Have Fun!!!
Josh, where are you located south of I-70? Much of Montgomery County had over six inches from the last storm… we had 8″ in Kettering. We forecasted 6 to 9 for this area, which wasn’t exaggerated. But I guess if you’re in Greene Co, that was the exception, as they really only saw around 4 inches.
I already have reports closing in on 3″ for parts of Greene Co this time around! Let me know what you end up with!
When I cleared off my driveway of my condo in Washington Twp, I had between 6 and 7 inches—at least removing this snow was easier than the weekend’s snow was!