September, 2011

Winds will increase & temperatures will drop!

September 29th, 2011 at 8:20 am by under Weather

This is the time of year for ups and downs… we tend to see some pretty wild swings in weather!  That’s just what we’ll see over the next 24-hours!  After some morning fog, we’ll enjoy a little sunshine today!  Winds will increase… but it’s a southerly wind today.  The combination of sun and that southerly flow will help temperatures climb to near-normal values this afternoon… with a forecast high near 70.  Then the cold front drops in:

This will bring the chance for showers– and even some thunderstorms– to the area after 5pm or so.  This rain will start in the northwest Miami Valley and spread southeast through the evening hours.  Any thunderstorm that gets going along the initial line will have the potential to produce some stronger wind gusts:

Be sure to check back with Brian Davis later today if you have evening plans.  He’ll have your forecast and will analyze the situation on Live Doppler 2X beginning right at 5pm.  (he’ll also let you know if any warnings have been issued for the area!)

Behind this cold front, MUCH cooler air will work in for Friday and the weekend.  Highs will only be in the mid-50s Friday afternoon, with lots of clouds and occasional showers.  Not only will it be cool, but the wind… the WIND!  It will be quite gusty, coming in from the west northwest.  Brace yourselves!

Overnight lows through the weekend now look even colder.  Winds will be lightest on Sunday morning, as high pressure settles in right over us.  If skies are indeed clear, we could see temps drop into the mid-30s:

Patchy frost is still in the forecast for Sunday morning… gardeners take note!

I am taking a long weekend, so Tara Hastings will be with you Friday & Monday.  I am so excited to be hanging out with my high school girlfriends this weekend!  Woo-hoo!  :)    I hope you all enjoy your day and weekend… see you next week!



Sending this low packing!

September 28th, 2011 at 7:19 am by under Weather

The stubborn low that has been hanging around for days will finally get outta dodge by Thursday!  Today is the last day it will really impact our weather.  We’re pretty much expecting a carbon-copy of yesterday here in Dayton, with lots of clouds, cool temperatures (highs in the mid-60s), and a chance of showers.  It appears showers will have better coverage than yesterday… meaning more people will see the rain today.  But it still won’t be a wash-out, as we’ll see lots of dry weather in there, too.

Thursday, we may start off with some lingering showers in the early morning as the low departs, but we should see drier conditions mid-day, with some sunshine across the area.  With the sun and breezy southwest winds, we’ll warm into the lower 70s.  This all happens ahead of a cold front, which will bring the chance of showers–even a few thunderstorms–back into the area by Thursday late afternoon/evening:

Then the bottom drops out!  Notice on the map above, I’ve broken out the “Old Man Winter” icon… as we’ll get our first REAL taste of temperatures that may have you reaching for that winter coat.  Winds will shift in from the west/northwest on Friday, and be quite gusty at times.  All this, with clouds and the potential for showers… so highs will only make it into the 50s both Friday and Saturday.  And that’s not all!  Both Saturday and Sunday morning now look to be even colder with the potential for patchy frost, especially Sunday:

So protect any plants you want to save!  If we can make it through the weekend, we’ll be in for a real treat next week.  By Sunday the sun will be in full force as a ridge of high pressure takes over at the surface and aloft.  I’m expecting some delightful fall weather with bright blue skies and highs in the 70s next week.  Nights will still be cool, as we dip into the upper 40s.  This is ideal weather for good fall color… so hopefully we’ll get a great show as the leaves continue to change.  Our ash tree is always the first in the neighborhood to drop it’s leaves, and we’ve already done at least one psudo-raking.  My little 1 year old started walking not too long ago, and he LOVES walking around the driveway, crunching the leaves… he is so cute!  Just wait till he sees snow!  :)


Low won’t go…

September 27th, 2011 at 7:16 am by under Weather

The cut-off low is still there!  This morning, it’s spinning in northern Illinois… and shows up really nicely on the satellite loop.  Click on the image below to see the current loop:

We expect this feature to drift into Indiana today… and through Ohio on Wednesday.  That means two things for us:  continued cool temperatures (highs in the mid-60s)… and the chance for scattered showers.

FINALLY, on Thursday, that low will be east of us, and we’ll see a rebound in temps, with highs back into the lower 70s.  BUT it doesn’t last long!

A strong cold front will move through late Thursday, the chance for rain does not really leave the forecast just yet.  There could be a few showers, perhaps a rumble or two of thunder Thursday afternoon or evening.  Then, we turn colder just in time for Friday night football!  You’ll need the stadium blankets for high school football games, as our high will only be near 60 degrees… and temps will drop into the lower 50s during the evening.

Camping this weekend?  Extra warm sleeping bags are a must, as we’ll have some cold nights ahead.  Some spots could even see the first frosty morning of the season!  Low temperatures will be near 40 degrees Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings.  There is a good chance some will dip into the upper 30s as high pressure builds right over us, providing perfect radiational cooling… clear skies & light winds:

Today I am going to give a weather talk on the Van Wert tornado.  Do you remember that storm?  It was back in November 2002… a tornado moved through seven Indiana and Ohio counties, leveled homes and businesses, injured 26 people and killed four people in all.  It was strongest as it moved through Van Wert, Ohio… gaining F4 strength, with winds up to 260mph.  Probably the most memorable part of this event, is the damage the tornado did to the local movie theater:

Thanks to a NOAA weather radio, a manager at the movie theater heard the alert… and acted quickly!  They were able to usher patrons to a safe place as the tornado hit.  Thankfully they didn’t stay seated in the actual theater, as you can see cars took their place!  Amazingly, no one was injured at this location… probably the best example as to why a NOAA weather radio is so important.  Van Wert was, and still is, a storm-ready community.  Their severe weather action plan has been used as a model by other cities around the country.

I was working in the forecast center, tracking the storm that afternoon.  I also got to visit Van Wert six months after the tornado hit to see the re-building progress.  Even after half of a year, there was still a lot to be done.  This makes me think of–and feel horrible for–the communities that were devastated by the powerful tornadoes earlier this year.  Joplin, MO… Birmingham & Tuscaloosa, AL… etc.  It’s easy for the rest of us to forget about what happened in these cities, while it is still very real for the people living there.  The memories of that day… the fear… the loss of life as they knew it… and for some, the loss of life completely.  I’m actually traveling to Birmingham in October, and will be sure to bring back some pictures/stories of the tornado aftermath.


Rainy records broken

September 26th, 2011 at 8:04 am by under Weather

Heavy rain worked in overnight along a cold front, and has lingered into the morning hours.  Here are some rainfall totals as of 7:30am, with rain still falling… first the Doppler Estimates:

Now some actual measurements:

Dayton Airport: 3.41″
Wright Brothers’ Airport (south of the Dayton Mall):  2.91″
Eaton:  2″
Troy: 2.8″
Maustown (Butler Co): 4.46″

We’ve already set a daily rainfall record, with today’s 3.11″ smashing the previous record of .90″ set back in 1915.  And that’s not the only rainfall record we’ve set today!  We’re now in the wettest September on record, with a monthly rainfall total of 10.31″… that beats the old record of 7.37″ set back in 2005.  Wow!

This morning’s rain has been training over the same locations, causing some flooding problems, too.  High water in low-lying spots and ponding of water on roads have lead to numerous accidents.  All of this moisture has been surging northward along a cold front crossing the area.  The good news, the back edge of the rain will work from west-to-east through the remainder of the morning.  And by lunchtime, a little drizzle may linger, but the measurable rainfall should be over.  There may even be a few breaks in the clouds later this afternoon as the front moves east of the area:

But notice there is still a low to our west.  Remember last week when we were talking about the cut-off-low?  Yep, that’s it.  It’s STILL near the area.  It will slowly move east over the next couple of days, keeping us with rain chances.  We won’t see the heavy/steady rain we saw this morning… it will be more showery… and there will be lots of dry weather both Tuesday and Wednesday.  But temperatures will cool slightly as the low moves closer… highs will be in the 60s.

There are signs of another big cool-down by next weekend, and it looks like some spots could be looking at patchy frost believe it or not!  And wet snow across parts of the Great Lakes (although not quite here… yet).  :)


Beyond the forecast – Women’s Friendship

September 24th, 2011 at 7:02 pm by under Weather

I had no idea before college what a sorority was and didn’t understand it much more when I began my freshman year.  However a friend of mine knew a lot about greek life and encouraged me to check out the different groups.  Kappa Delta Sorority at Valparaiso University stood out and more importantly the women wanted me to join their circle.   I wasn’t aware by accepting this invitation in college there would be a huge impact not only during my college career but my adult life as well.

Valparaiso University – Kappa Delta 1998

These women shown above and I shared so many laughs and were always there to lend a shoulder to cry on.  This small group and the other women in my chapter encouraged me to run for president my senior year.  Through this leadership role I learned a lot about confidence and ever loyal friendship.

Kappa Delta Convention – 2011

Whenever I have moved to a different city I ask myself “Are there any Kappa Delta’s that live here?”  Some of these women have helped me find a safe neighborhood, taken me to lunch and invited me out when I first move to town.
I now serve as a volunteer on Kappa Delta’s National Leadership Team.  I mentor four chapters from different colleges across the country.  I help them with recruiting new members, philanthropic events and confidence building.   I love working with college women but sorority life doesn’t end after college.

Dayton Alumnae Chapter – September 24, 2011

Today this group of women and I celebrated International Women’s Friendship Month.  Kappa Delta Sorority created this event to celebrate the friendships we have with other women.  It’s not just for the members of Kappa Delta – this is for women who wear all greek letters or those who wear none at all.

Many of my girlfriends were right beside me during my parents divorce, deaths of relatives, illness, a new job and a broken heart.  Some of those friends were my sorority sisters while others were friends from high school or those I met through the years.

High school friends Shannon & Lori September 2011

So this September I celebrate my numerous friendship’s with the women who have touched my heart.  You have been and always will play a special part in my life.  Thank you for being my friend.


In between systems today…

September 22nd, 2011 at 7:19 am by under Weather

A cold front moved through Dayton overnight, and has left us in a slightly cooler airmass this morning.  Most locations have dropped into the 50s behind the front, with partly cloudy skies.  Along and ahead of the front (mainly south and east of town), there are areas of dense fog.  Clinton County is part of a Dense Fog Advisory that will be in effect until 9am.  Click here –> SCHOOL DELAYS for the latest info on any closings/delays across the area.  (there are a couple this morning!)  If you’re heading down that way, be aware that visibilities will drop to a quarter of a mile or less in spots.  And even outside of Clinton County–southern Montgomery, Greene, Clark and Warren counties may see some fog.  So give yourself a little extra time out of the gate!

In between weather systems, this afternoon will actually be one of the nicer ones this week!  We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds, with pleasant temperatures.  Highs will be in the lower 70s.  Enjoy it while it’s here… because we’re still expecting that drop-off in temperature as we head into the weekend.  So the first day of fall will feel like… well, fall!

The upper low we’ve been talking about will drop in and hang out for days… models are in pretty good agreement that it will sit near/just west of us through the beginning part of next week.  So that means it will be cooler than normal, with rain chances each day Friday through Tuesday.  The good news, at this point it does not look like a wash-out on any given day.  We’ll just continually have the chance for light rain on/off throughout the weekend.  So don’t cancel any plans, just be prepared to deal with a little wet weather.  We’ll also have a better idea on the timing of any rain closer to each day.  So right now Friday’s rain chances look to be timed like this:

Best chance in the morning, and another elevated chance by peak-heating later in the day.  It’s one of those weekends to keep the latest forecast handy–and with today’s technology, you can easily do that!  We can always be with you… just download our 2 News App for your iPhone, Droid or Blackberry!

I am off tomorrow to celebrate the first day of Fall (also to host the in laws, haha), so Tara Hastings has your Operation Football forecast bright and early!  See you next week!


Showery today & a real fall-like weekend ahead!

September 21st, 2011 at 8:17 am by under Weather

A cold front is moving into the region from the northwest today.  Ahead of the front, we’ll see breezy southerly winds, with high temperatures close to normal, in the low-mid 70s.  Lots of clouds will be around, however, and if you’ve gone outside at all this morning, you know rain will be too.  If you don’t have rain falling now, you probably at least  have damp or wet streets.  Some heavier downpours are embedded within the showers, and the airport has already picked up over a half-inch!  One of our NWS storm spotters reported minor street flooding in New Carlisle with some of the heavier rain (thanks, Michael!)  Here are some doppler estimates of the rainfall so far:

There should be a break in the activity shortly after lunch, but more showers and even a few thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon as the cold front drops in.  The front moves through tonight, and that means we dry out… and cool down a bit.  Highs on Thursday will be near 70-degrees… with a mix of sun and clouds.  We can’t rule out an isolated shower late-day, but most spots will not see rain Thursday.

Then the upper low drops in on Friday.  This thing will hang out a little too long… and by the end of it all, I think we’ll be happy to see it go.  Check out the s-l-o-w movement between Friday:

And Monday:

Rain chances will even linger into Tuesday before the low lifts east and we dry out mid-week.  All the while, temps will be running cool, with highs in the 60s.  The clouds will actually keep temperatures up overnight, however, so lows will only dip into the upper 40s/low 50s.

So you work with someone long enough, and I guess you start to think alike.  Check out how Karrie Rossmiller and I showed up to work today:

Yikes.  That’s scary.  Unplanned, and even an off-shade of pink!  We’re certainly on your side with weather and traffic every ten minutes! :)



A dreary start, but a nicer afternoon…

September 20th, 2011 at 7:37 am by under Weather

We’re starting the day with cloud cover, fog and drizzle across the Miami Valley.  The fog has been thickest across the northern counties this morning, prompting a couple of school delays.  Here is the full link of school delays… something to keep handy as we approach the colder months… yep, we’ll need to check for snow days before long!

Miami Valley School Delays

Fog and drizzle will lift by lunch, and we’ll start to see some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon.  Southerly winds and a little sunshine will have temperatures climbing higher than they did yesterday afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 70s, and the rest of the day will be dry.

Beyond today, however, rain chances show up in each of the next seven days!!  Yes, it’s quite the active period for us.  Wednesday’s rain-maker is a cold front that will drop in late in the day.  This will kick off a few scattered showers and thunderstorms… mainly in the afternoon and evening:

Beyond Wednesday, energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere will move in for the end of the week and the weekend.  This will end up cutting off from the main flow, and you know what we say, “cut off low, weatherman’s woe”… as these types of systems tend to meander and not move much day-to-day:

Underneath a cut off low, the weather can be generalized as cool and unsettled, and that’s exactly what we’ll see right through the weekend, even into early next week.  Fall officially begins at 5:05 am on Friday, and it will certainly feel like it with scattered showers and highs only in the mid-60s!  It won’t be long before these cut-off lows do bring us flurries and light snow!  Eeek!


Rain is back!

September 19th, 2011 at 6:29 am by under Weather

Showers and even a few thunderstorms will be possible today, as a slow moving cold front crosses the area.  We’re starting off early this morning with just a few showers moving across the northern counties.  But between now and mid-morning, the rain will be increasing in coverage, and more locations will see it.  Keep the LIVE DOPPLER 2X link handy throughout the day… as on & off showers/t’storms will be possible at any time.  With an abundance of clouds and some rain around, our temps won’t climb very much today.  We’ll start the day in the 60s… and likely stay there throughout the afternoon.

The cold front will be moving through this evening:

And as it heads east and weakens, it will take the rain with it.  By Tuesday morning, most will be back to dry conditions, although we’ll start the day with lots of cloud cover.  The sun will increase during the afternoon, as high pressure builds in.  This will bring us a really nice day, with highs back near-normal, in the mid-70s.  Expect a slight warm-up on Wednesday, ahead of our next cold front.  This next front is lacking in a lot of moisture… so at this point, there is just a low chance for showers late Wednesday.

There is some question about a possible upper level low pressure center that may decide to hang out over the Great Lakes as we head toward the end of the week/weekend.  So low rain chances will continue for a few days, with cooler-than-normal temperatures during the afternoons.  We’ll keep you posted on this developing weather as the week goes on!


Coldest morning since May!

September 16th, 2011 at 8:36 am by under Weather

This morning has been our coldest morning since May–which is the last time we dipped into the lower 40s.  Some outlying spots, as expected, even reached the upper 30s.  Here’s a look at the 5am readings:

This afternoon will be another cool one, with highs in the lower 60s.  The good news: it won’t be as windy today!!  So it will be a bit more enjoyable to be outdoors.  The sky will not be as blue, however… with high clouds drifting through the region.  You can see the extensive cloud cover on this morning’s satellite imagery:

These high cirrus clouds were pretty thin early this morning, and if you were out early, you might have noticed a ring around the moon.  This is caused by the ice crystals way up in these clouds.  They act as prisims, and refract the moonlight (which is actually reflected sunlight).  The ice crystals are a hexagon shape, and they bend the light at a 22-degree angle… causing a halo 22-degrees in radius.  I always get phone calls and emails asking to explain this phenomenon when it happens!

The cirrus clouds will filter the sunshine at times today, so we won’t quite have the bright blue sky we enjoyed yesterday.  But we’re not expecting rain, and it looks like we’ll stay dry through most of the weekend!  There’s also a warming trend in store for the area, with temps coming back up to normal values (mid-70s) by Sunday.  It’s another weekend jam-packed with fun events!  Here’s a rundown/forecast of just a few… Enjoy!

Good luck to all the runners & walkers… and gooooo Karrie Rossmiller!!!!  :)


Fall is in the air!!

September 15th, 2011 at 8:08 am by under Weather

Here we are, firmly in a fall-like airmass this morning.  Readings have dipped into the 40s across much of the Miami Valley, and it feels damp with overnight/early morning rain exiting the area.  The airport picked up about a quarter of an inch of rain… and that seems like a good average rainfall amount for the area.  Some did see a little more, and some a little less… but right around there.

The clouds will be breaking up later this morning, allowing for plenty of afternoon sunshine!!  The sun won’t be enough to warm us much, though.  With a brisk northerly wind, we’ll only make it up to 60 degrees for the afternoon high.  Some of the northern counties will likely only reach the upper 50s.

Tonight, high pressure builds in and will be sitting right over us tomorrow morning:

This means mostly clear skies and light winds overnight… which will allow for good radiational cooling.  Radiational cooling is basically the cooling of the Earth’s surface at night…. as heat from the day radiates back out into the atmosphere.  It’s more pronounced when you have a clear sky, because there’s nothing to get in the way :)

Lows Friday morning will be down near 40-degrees, and some of the outlying sheltered areas (especially across the North) could dip into the upper 30s.  If you live in one of those spots that tends to get a little colder… you might want to protect your plants just in case, as we can’t rule out some patchy light frost.  Most in town should be ok, though.

Friday afternoon will feature pleasantly cool conditions, with lots of sunshine and less wind.  What nice fall weather Friday and over the weekend!  Saturday morning will start chilly, but it should be pretty nice for those participating in the Air Force Marathon:

A warming trend kicks in as the high moves off to our east.  This will put our high temps in the upper 60s Saturday and lower 70s on Sunday.  I hope you enjoy the ups and downs of Fall… which officially begins just after 5am next Friday, September 23rd!


The tale of two cold fronts

September 14th, 2011 at 8:26 am by under Weather

One cold front came through overnight… and another will move through tonight!  The result behind each of them is cooler temperatures!

So while we reached 86° Tuesday afternoon, today we’ll only be in the lower 70s.  Clouds are on the increase this morning, and we’ll definitely see more cloud cover today than we did yesterday.  The combination of cool air behind the front and the cloud cover will make it feel cool… as we won’t have the sun shining as bright.  We do even have a slight rain chance as we head into the afternoon hours… and notice how it increases this evening:

That is because cold front #2 will be moving in!  We will likely see some scattered showers this evening and overnight as that front passes through… should probably get some better rain coverage, meaning more spots will see it.  This is the front that will have us reaching for the jackets by Thursday and Friday mornings!  And I don’t just mean a light jacket… you might want something a little more substantial for the kiddos as they head to school–especially Friday.  That is when we’re forecasting lower 40s in town, and some of the outlying areas (especially across the north) could even dip into the upper 30s!!  Are you ready for this?  It’s coming…

I wanted to share some updates from a Miami Valley farm.  Our friends in Fort Loramie continue to tend to their corn crop–doing corn silage.  Here are some pictures of their work this week…

First, they move through the fields and chop the corn, stalks and all.  That’s their shredder on the left… with the tractor and wagon on the right.  You can see the corn silage being shot overhead and into the wagon.

The corn is then dumped into a pile, and then packed down with a tractor (you can see the tire tread marks in the shot above).  That’s a big pile of corn silage… the silos in the background are 80-feet tall.

Now the corn will get covered (they are hoping for light winds to do this) so it can ferment.  The corn is used to feed the cows… as they are a dairy farm.  So you could be indirectly consuming corn from Fort Loramie through your milk! :)


Get ready for a roller coaster ride this week!

September 12th, 2011 at 7:35 am by under Weather

It’s one of those weeks that makes me love this time of year… we’ll experience a huge temperature swing that will have you in summer gear to start… but reaching for the jeans and jackets by the time we hit Thursday!  This will be thanks to a cold front moving through Tuesday night… which will also bring a slight chance of rain.

Today, high pressure is in control, meaning lots of sunshine and pleasantly warm temperatures for the area.  Afternoon highs will climb up near 80-degrees… which is now just above normal.  On Tuesday, southerly winds will increase ahead of the cold front, and that will help highs climb into the mid 80s:

By the time we hit 4 or 5 o’clock in the afternoon, we’ll start to see the chance of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms as the front moves in.  This will start in the northwest Miami Valley & spread southeast as the evening wears on.  Not everyone will see the rain, however, as there’s not a whole lot of moisture with this front.  Many of the models are actually bringing it through dry.

Behind the front, Wednesday will be a “transition” day.  There will still be a slight chance of some showers, mainly across the far south.  It will be cooler, but not quite AS cool as Thursday & Friday.  That’s when it may feel chilly to you… with highs in the mid-60s, and lows in the mid-40s!  It will certainly be a cool morning for the Air Force Marathon, and right now it looks dry:

Enjoy the ride this week!

September to remember

September 10th, 2011 at 7:59 pm by under Weather

Only ten days into the month and we’ve already seen a 36 degree temperature swing with our highs!  Tha’ts one big weather mood swing!! Here’s a look at Dayton’s high temperatures so far this September.

Those three string of 90′s did smash one record that has been holding on tight for almost a century.

Now our normal high for this time of year is right around 79°.  This month we’ve either been well above that or well below that.  It looks like the next few days we’ll be pretty close to normal as far as high temperatures go.

But our cool high temperatures did leave a mark on the Miami Valley as well and will go down in the record books.  Three record low maximum’s were set.  Basically the high temperature didn’t climb all that much and it was the ‘coolest’ high temperature on record.

So we’ve been through one extreme to another.  I’m looking forward to ‘normal’ September weather for the rest of the month :)


Low moves west, rain chances lower… but still there…

September 9th, 2011 at 7:56 am by under Weather

The remnant low that’s been affecting us for days have moved off to the west this morning.  We’re starting off with no showers in the area, but there still could be a little mist or drizzle early on today.  And the chance for showers goes up again as we head into the afternoon.  It doesn’t look like a wash-out today… we will, in fact, have a lot of dry weather.  But with some daytime heating, a few passing showers could pop-up this afternoon.

Lots of clouds will continue to affect the area, but we’ll also have a few breaks… allowing for peeks of sunshine.  This should be enough to push afternoon highs into the lower 70s.  A slow warming trend will continue through the weekend with mid-70s on Saturday… and upper 70s on Sunday.  Both days will continue to feature a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but there will be stretches of dry weather, too.  Pretty good conditions for all of the festivals this weekend… and there are a lot of them!!






Did I miss any?  If you know of any other festivals this weekend, feel free to post the link in the “comments” section!  I love this time of year.  The only problem is trying to decide which one to visit :)

We should be back near 80 degrees for the first part of next week, with generally dry conditions by that time.  A mid-week cold front will drop temps once again for the 2nd half of the week.

In global-weather news… it appears La Nina is back!  The opposite of El Nino, La Nina is characterized by cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures… and this influences–not drives–global weather patterns.  La Nina definitely had an influence on the extreme weather across the country during the first half of the year.  It’s not really a shocker to see it re-emerging, either… as back-to-back episodes are fairly common.  When we’re in a La Nina pattern, it can mean a wetter-than-average winter.  Oh joy.  ;)   Here is NOAA’s site for more reading on LA NINA.

Have a great weekend!!  Don’t forget about the special on WDTN… “9/11, Ten Years Later”.  This will air Sunday at 6pm on Channel 2.  And check out for a look back at our local coverage on that fateful day.


Gentle soaking showers here, flooding east

September 8th, 2011 at 8:31 am by under Weather

A steady light to moderate rain fell most of the day Wednesday, and we have more showers in the forecast today.  We’re starting off with an active Live Doppler 2x.  And the way the radar looks this morning will be the trend as we head into the afternoon:

The northwestern Miami Valley will stand the best chance at seeing the most rain coverage… with more showery activity (more breaks in the rain) south and east of Dayton.  You can get the latest radar view by going here:  LIVE DOPPLER 2X.  Very handy to have… I check it every time I leave the house! :)

So far, the Dayton International Airport has received .56″ of rain.  My farmer friends up in Fort Loramie are happy with their .6″… and heavier amounts have occurred in isolated spots… WPAFB recording 1.23″ in the past 24 hours.  But overall, the rain has been slow and steady… which is the best kind of rain for the crops, grass and gardens.  It’s been a different story in the Northeast, with devastating flooding once again.  Remember hurricane Irene left quite a mark with an abundance of rain… and now the remnants of Lee have set up a repeat performance.  Here is a look at some of the 2-day rainfall totals.  Keep in mind, that some of this has fallen in a very short period of time… so not only do they have river flooding, but also extremely dangerous flash flooding:

Binghamton, NY is right in the bullseye of the heaviest rain. Massive evacuations are on-going across parts of the region, as about 10,000 people in Binghamton are under mandatory evacuation.  The Susquehanna River is going to reach record levels today, with a forecast crest in Binghamton at 26.2 feet by this evening.  (At 25.6 feet, the river will overtop downtown Binghamton’s flood walls.)  A dam along the river in northeast Pennsylvania is at risk of “imminent failure”.  With more rain falling today, flood warnings and flash flood warnings are up for most of this region.  Big cities not immune, either, as flooding threatens a large area from Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey through New York.

Upper level energy left over from Lee will continue to slowly drift WEST across the Miami Valley today, so we will remain not only showery, but cool, too.  Yesterday we broke yet another record for the coldest HIGH temperature ever on that date:

That’s the 2nd one this week… thanks to the upper low.  We’ll also come quite close to doing this again this afternoon.  The upper low finally will be west of us tomorrow, allowing for temps to warm a bit more.  We should be into the low-mid 70s Friday & Saturday.  But the low is still close by, so the threat of (mainly afternoon) showers is still there.  Instability increases a bit over the weekend, meaning we may even see some thunderstorms with daytime heating.  But at least it doesn’t look like quite the wash-out we saw yesterday!!  Cabin fever, anyone?!


Lee is here… as a remnant low

September 7th, 2011 at 7:24 am by under Weather

The remnants of tropical storm Lee have arrived, and we are starting the day with scattered showers in the area.  As we head through the afternoon… into tonight… on and off showers will continue!  In between areas of rain, there may also be a little drizzle, lots of clouds, and definitely cooler temperatures.  Normal highs this time of year are near 80-degrees… and we’re forecasting 65 for today.  A good 15-degrees below normal!  Add to that a brisk northeast wind, and it might even feel chilly at times.

It’s one of those situations where we have the rain moving from east-to-west across the area.  Typically, our weather moves the opposite direction–from west-to-east.  So when this current “backwards” set up occurs, people always contact me wondering how out of the ordinary it is.  It can actually happen a few times each year… it’s already happened one or two times this year… I remember blogging about it.  It has to do with the circulation around low pressure… and exactly where that low is situated in regards to our area.  Remember that air flows counter-clockwise around low pressure.  So if the low is southeast of us, you can see just why the rain is moving from east to west:

The upper low, itself, will actually “retrograde” over the next few days.  That means IT will move from east to west!  Check out where it’s forecast to be on Saturday:

You can see this upper low is cut-off from the main flow, and hurricane Katia in the Atlantic will further slow down it’s movement.  Katia has weakened into a Category 1 storm this morning, with winds at 90 mph.  Katia is still expected to stay out at sea over the next few days.

But we now have another tropical feature to watch:  Tropical Depression 14 has formed, and it is likely to become Tropical Storm Maria later today:

Notice the region circled in the Gulf of Mexico.  Another stormy area to keep an eye on for strengthening.  It has a pretty good shot, at 40%… we are almost at the very peak of hurricane season!


Touch O’Fall!

September 6th, 2011 at 7:53 am by under Weather

It sure seems like Fall has settled in across the Miami Valley!  On Friday and Saturday, we had high temperatures in the upper 90s, and this morning we’re down near 50-degrees.  That’s an almost 50-degree temperature swing over the weekend… amazing!  This week, temperatures will continue to be below normal… with lots of clouds and even some rain.  Here’s what’s going on…

We will be impacted by the remnants of what was Tropical Storm Lee, now an “extratropical” cyclone.  This basically means that Lee has lost it’s tropical characteristics… and will now be sustained by temperature differences.  There is still a lot of tropical moisture moving north with this system, and as it moves into our cooler airmass, the potential for heavy rain will be there starting tonight. 

During most of the day today, we will stay dry, with the best shot at rain being in our southeastern counties.  But by late afternoon/evening… everyone will stand the chance at seeing some rain.  And the chances remain high tonight/Wednesday, as the low moves right over Kentucky and Southern Ohio:

As Tara mentioned yesterday, a trough sets up over us and will hang out throughout the week, keeping us cool and unsettled.  It won’t move much at all, because of hurricane Katia in the Atlantic Ocean… this will really slow down any eastward movement of our trough.  The energy of the trough will weaken towards the end of the week, but rain chances really remain quite high through Friday.  Here you can see Katia out at sea on Thursday…with our trough still in place:

Katia is currently a Category 3 storm, with sustained winds of 125mph.  It’s forecast to remain off-shore of the US East Coast… but will still bring dangerous rip-currents.  Right on Katia’s heels… there is another area of disturbed weather that has a high liklihood of developing into a tropical cyclone.  We could have Tropical Storm Maria within the next two days.


Labor Day forecast and Lee

September 5th, 2011 at 8:33 am by under Weather

Wow what a difference today compared to 97° on Saturday!  We’ll see lots of clouds on this Labor Day, cooler temperatures and breezy winds.  Our normal high for this time of year is 80° and we’re not even going to break 70° today.

Not only will it be cool but it’s going to be breezy as well which is going to put a bite in the air.  Here’s the reason why we’re seeing these cooler conditions today.  The cold front that brought us rain over the weekend is now east of the area and high pressure is off to our west.  These two features are funneling winds out of the north.

We may see a little sunshine on Tuesday before the remnants of Lee move northward and impact the Miami Valley weather. Here’s a look at Lee right now – it is a tropical depression.

Lee moves northward by the middle of the week and the upper level wind pattern shows a trough forming over Ohio.  This means very unsettled weather for us – clouds, showers and below normal temperatures.  This patter is going to stick around until the end of the week.


A hot start, but a cool end to the holiday weekend

September 2nd, 2011 at 7:46 am by under Weather

If you thought it was hot yesterday, brace yourself for another scorcher!  We made it up to 96-degrees just after 4pm on Thursday, and today we will actually be flirting with record heat.  The record high for this date is 99 degrees, set back in 1953… and today we’re forecasting 98!  This could even be the warmest day we’ve had all year if we make it up to that 98 degree mark (we hit 97 degrees a few times this summer, but no higher).  Today’s heat index values will be up between 99-102, and for that reason, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire Miami Valley through this evening.

Another hot day is on tap for Saturday, with highs again well into the 90s.  The good news, is that a cold front will be dropping into the region Saturday night and Sunday.  This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the area… followed by much cooler temperatures.  There is so much going on this weekend!!  Alter Fest in Kettering will be HOT to start… but will end COOL on Labor Day:

And if you’re heading to any of Kettering’s Holiday at Home events on Labor Day, get ready for the cooler air that will be in place.  There could be a spotty shower or two around early Monday morning, but we’ll dry out in time for the Parade down Far Hills Ave:

So the only umbrellas we should see will be those from the DLM Umbrella Brigade!  :)   HOWEVER, the front still could slow down a bit, and possibly be influenced by a tropical system to the south, so be sure this is not the last forecast you see… watch Channel 2 over the weekend for the latest info.  :)

So now MORE on that tropical system… As expected, we now have Tropical Depression 13 in the Gulf of Mexico! 

Winds are sustained at 35mph this morning… once they get to 39mph, it will become Tropical Storm “Lee”.  This is an extremely slow-moving storm, and is forecast to dump extreme rainfall over parts of the Gulf Coast.  Particularly threatened is New Orleans, which sits below sea level… and has had previous problems with the levee system (hurricane Katrina).  Ten to 15 inches of rain is possible, with isolated spots getting up to 20 inches through next week.  This will be a huge weather story over the weekend and early next week.

Hurricane Katia has weakened into a Tropical Storm again this morning.  This storm will likely become a hurricane again as it slowly moves west-northwest.  It won’t impact the US through the beginning of next week, but beyond Tuesday… it has the potential.  All eyes will be on the east coast again.

Enjoy the holiday weekend!!