Rain today, then back to sun!

November 3rd, 2011 at 7:40 am by under Weather

An area of low pressure will head our way today, bringing in the chance of rain by this afternoon.  Even though it’s not raining this morning… it’s a good idea to have the umbrella handy, as most will see some showers by the drive home.  Rain chances really increase beyond 2pm, with the approach of this system… here’s a little more on the TIMING:

And now for coverage.  The 40% chance is for the Dayton area, but depending on where you live… you may have a better–or even lesser shot at seeing rain.  The storm system will pass to our southwest, so the highest rain chances will be in our southern and western counties.  Here’s a look at who is most likely to see the most significant rainfall today:

In the northeast counties, rainfall amounts will be lesser… maybe a tenth of an inch, with closer to .25″ in the south & west.

With the storm moving through, we’ll be cooler–but near normal–with highs in the upper 50s this afternoon.  High pressure then builds in behind the system, so that means a return to bright blue skies by Friday afternoon!  In a slightly cooler airmass, temperatures will hold in the mid-50s for highs Friday, but then modify over the weekend.  Saturday looks delightful with near-normal temps again… and Sunday, we’re back in the 60s!

Winds also increase on Sunday as another storm system cranks up across the central part of the country.  A frontal boundary will set up over the area next week, and that could put us in a pretty favorable position to see some more significant rainfall.  Where that front sets up will determine who will see the most rain… so it’s something we’ll watch closely as we head into next week.  Right now, the chance of showers is there for Monday and Tuesday… with an increasing likelihood on Wednesday and Thursday.

I’m excited as the fall/winter weather pattern is setting up right now.  Awhile back, I mentioned the LRC–or Lezak’s Recurring Cycle.  it’s a theory developed by Meteorologist Gary Lezak, who I worked with when I was in Kansas City.  It maintains that every year between October 1st and November 15th, a new weather pattern sets up and then cycles throughout the next nine months or so.  The pattern and cycle length are different each year, but long-wave troughs and ridges set up in “long-term” positions.  I was introduced to the LRC back in 2004, and I have followed along with it each year… it is amazing to watch, and a great forecasting tool.  I have been talking with Gary, and I am going to do a more in-depth story on the LRC as it continues to set up!  We’re getting a better idea of what this winter will be like for our area, and we’ll also share this.  The story will air on Channel 2 sometime in the near future… of course I’ll let you know when that is as we get closer!

Jamie

2 Responses to “Rain today, then back to sun!”

  1. Lisa says:

    The LRC sounds fascinating and I can’t wait to hear the predictions for the winter!! I’m hoping for a couple of big snowfalls! :)

  2. Jamie Jarosik says:

    It’s still coming together, but you might be in luck… right now, it looks quite active!

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