November, 2011

Falling back this weekend

November 5th, 2011 at 7:04 pm by under Weather

So we are falling back to standard time this weekend.  Tonight or more specifically at 2am Sunday, clocks will suddenly change to 1am.  Well…at least our cellphones, computers and other electronic devices.  I think I would freak out a little if the hands on my wall clock moved back automatically.
On a side note – I often go through the house and change the clocks all at once.  While it’s a pain it’s not like I work in a clock shop.  Can you imagine having to change ALL those clocks twice a year?
Ok – back on track….

So Daylight Saving Time is ending which means it will be lighter and darker earlier.  Here’s a look at the sunrise/sunset differences between Saturday and Sunday.

That’s going to be an adjustment coming home and it’s already dark.  Although I feel for those parents whose children will still wake up at the same time and not give mommy and daddy that extra hour of sleep.

One part of this time of year that drives me nuts is grammar.  Now I will fully admit I am not great with spelling or grammar, which is why I am a scientist.  However I seem to remember little things, for example it’s pronounced and spelled Daylight Saving Time not Daylight Savings Time.   We are saving time or time is saved…not savings time.

I hope you enjoy the weekend and enjoy the extra hour.  For me I’m going to be snoozing when the clocks change :)
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Wonderful weekend weather…

November 4th, 2011 at 7:25 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Our storm system dumped significant rainfall to our southwest… check out these totals from yesterday/overnight:

Cincinnati set a daily record for rainfall yesterday, with 2.26″… and that additional .01″ picked up overnight.  That beats the old record of .65″ set back in 1961.  It also pushes their yearly rainfall total to 60.69″, so their wettest year on record continues to get even wetter!  There were some flooding concerns down in Butler and Hamilton Counties for awhile overnight with the heavy rain in place.  But thankfully, it’s a thing of the past… as the storm pulled away early this morning, and we’re back to dry conditions.  Clouds will break up during the late morning hours as high pressure builds in.  This will set us up for a sunny afternoon… and all that brightness will continue right through the weekend.

We’ll see high pressure not only at the surface:

But also aloft, which will mean bright blue skies:

It also means a slow warming trend for the area.  We’ll be cool both today and Saturday, with highs in the mid-50s… but expect upper 50s Sunday, and 60s early next week.  We now look to stay pretty quiet at the beginning of next week, with the rain chances increasing for Wednesday/Thursday.  And something interesting on the models… might we see some snowflakes mixing in by Thursday/Friday?

It certainly looks cold enough in the latest model runs!  It’s still a long way off… but we’ll keep an eye on it.  We’re having my 4-year-old daughter’s birthday party this weekend.  Wish me luck… as I will be consumed with kids and princesses :)   Thankfully, we get an extra hour as we FALL BACK Saturday night.  I will be spending my extra hour cleaning up from the party… because you know young children don’t participate in Daylight Savings (ie, they don’t let you enjoy an extra hour of sleep… lol).  I hope you enjoy your extra hour and your weekend!

In space news, there has been another increase in solar activity.  A big solar flare occurred yesterday, sending waves of ionization towards Earth… but the CME, or coronal mass ejection that brought us the beautiful Northern Lights not too long ago is actually heading towards Mercury and Venus.  But the active region on the sun is now turning toward Earth, so there is potential for another sky show here in the coming days.  You can stay updated on this by checking with SPACEWEATHER.COM… and by keeping an eye to the sky over the weekend.

See you Monday!

Jamie
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Rain today, then back to sun!

November 3rd, 2011 at 7:40 am by under Weather

An area of low pressure will head our way today, bringing in the chance of rain by this afternoon.  Even though it’s not raining this morning… it’s a good idea to have the umbrella handy, as most will see some showers by the drive home.  Rain chances really increase beyond 2pm, with the approach of this system… here’s a little more on the TIMING:

And now for coverage.  The 40% chance is for the Dayton area, but depending on where you live… you may have a better–or even lesser shot at seeing rain.  The storm system will pass to our southwest, so the highest rain chances will be in our southern and western counties.  Here’s a look at who is most likely to see the most significant rainfall today:

In the northeast counties, rainfall amounts will be lesser… maybe a tenth of an inch, with closer to .25″ in the south & west.

With the storm moving through, we’ll be cooler–but near normal–with highs in the upper 50s this afternoon.  High pressure then builds in behind the system, so that means a return to bright blue skies by Friday afternoon!  In a slightly cooler airmass, temperatures will hold in the mid-50s for highs Friday, but then modify over the weekend.  Saturday looks delightful with near-normal temps again… and Sunday, we’re back in the 60s!

Winds also increase on Sunday as another storm system cranks up across the central part of the country.  A frontal boundary will set up over the area next week, and that could put us in a pretty favorable position to see some more significant rainfall.  Where that front sets up will determine who will see the most rain… so it’s something we’ll watch closely as we head into next week.  Right now, the chance of showers is there for Monday and Tuesday… with an increasing likelihood on Wednesday and Thursday.

I’m excited as the fall/winter weather pattern is setting up right now.  Awhile back, I mentioned the LRC–or Lezak’s Recurring Cycle.  it’s a theory developed by Meteorologist Gary Lezak, who I worked with when I was in Kansas City.  It maintains that every year between October 1st and November 15th, a new weather pattern sets up and then cycles throughout the next nine months or so.  The pattern and cycle length are different each year, but long-wave troughs and ridges set up in “long-term” positions.  I was introduced to the LRC back in 2004, and I have followed along with it each year… it is amazing to watch, and a great forecasting tool.  I have been talking with Gary, and I am going to do a more in-depth story on the LRC as it continues to set up!  We’re getting a better idea of what this winter will be like for our area, and we’ll also share this.  The story will air on Channel 2 sometime in the near future… of course I’ll let you know when that is as we get closer!

Jamie


Fall roller coaster

November 2nd, 2011 at 7:31 am by under Weather

The ups and downs of the season will be in full effect over the next several days.  We’ll go from mild to cool… and then back to mild… followed by a return to cool :)   Got that?  If you’re a visual person… here ya go:

Frequent temperature swings like this are normal for this time of year.  And speaking OF normals, let’s take a look at our monthly round-up for October.  You will see that it was a pretty normal month, just ever-so-slightly cooler than normal, with near-normal precip:

Today’s blog will be a stat-geek’s dream, as the numbers continue (my husband would love this!)  :)   During the month of November, we see considerable cooling.   Right now, the normal high is 58 degrees, and the normal low is 39 degrees.  Check out the change in the normal high temperature by the end of the month:

So it won’t be long until the cold wins out!  And winter weather is in full effect this morning out in Colorado.  Blizzard warnings are in place just east of Denver.  Snow is expected to fall at the rate of 2″ per hour here, with windy conditions and low visibility.  Denver is closing in on 4″ of snow already this morning, with higher amounts in surrounding communities.  The highest amount I’ve seen this morning is in Elizabeth, CO (slightly higher elevation than Denver):  11″ and counting.  This is already the second big snow storm to hit the area this season!

That same storm system will head our way tomorrow, but we will remain on the “warm” side of things–just rain in the forecast, no snow.  Some of the models continue to trend this system south… check out our in-house computer model, looking much farther south than yesterday’s run:

The best shot of rain will be along and south of I-70 on Thursday… and the afternoon/evening will be the best time to see any precip.  We’ll continue to keep an eye on it!

Have a wonderful Wednesday!  And happy birthday to my sweet, sweet daughter <3
Jamie :)
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November sunshine…

November 1st, 2011 at 6:36 am by under Weather

High pressure built into the area overnight, bringing about a cold morning.  Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to cool pretty efficiently… with morning readings in the 30s across the entire Miami Valley.  If you’ve parked outside, you’ll need to scrape a little frost off the windshield early this morning, and there’s also the potential for some fog… which gets thicker as you travel east, towards Columbus.

Dry conditions are expected for the next two days, and it will be pretty bright around these parts!  Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected this afternoon, and plenty of sun again for Wednesday.  A slow morning trend will also ensure, as we climb to near-normal values today (highs in the upper 50s), and above normal on Wednesday (lower 60s).  Things change Thursday as another storm rolls our way:

The chance of showers increases for Thursday afternoon and evening especially.   The models differ slightly on the track of this storm, as the GFS is trending farther south than the model above; this would mean a slightly lower chance for rain.  We’ll keep an eye on the trends, but at this point it does look like we’ll at least see some activity over the area, with cooler temperatures to go along with it.

We’ll be back to dry conditions for Friday and Saturday, with another warm-up expected as southerly winds increase this weekend.  Whenever we warm-up like this, you know a storm/cold front is on the way!  That moves in Sunday, followed by another dip in temps early next week.  Ahh, Fall! :)

There are some signs that next week could be quite active, with the potential for a front to set up over the region with some heavier rain possible.  It’s still a long way out, so let’s see how things evolve.

I wanted to share this picture of my kids with you… here you see Dorothy and the Cowardly Lion, ready for Trick or Treat:

Is the Lion happy, or trying to get that hood off his head?  LOL, they had a great time, and the weather was perfect.  Hope you also enjoyed your Halloween!  Have a good day!