With all the warm weather this season, I’ve had MANY questions lately on whether or not this is a record warm winter.  Or is it one of the least snowy winters on record?  I chatted with our friends at the National Weather Service in Wilmington yesterday… and they shared some historical statistics with me.  First, yes, it has been an above normal season.  If you recall, December ended above normal temperature-wise… and this month follows suit:

December:  +5.2°
January:  +2.4°

Despite this, December 2011 and January 2012 didn’t even make the top 10 warmest months!  Here’s a look at the warmest January’s on record:

So… no… not a record warm winter so far.  And as for least snowiest winters on record… we DO crack the top-10 on this list:

And all of this while we’ve been WAY above-normal in precip… we’ve had lots of RAIN!  For the month of January, we are almost two inches above normal.  And we have more rain in the forecast as a cold front heads our way.  Ahead of the front this morning, we’re starting off very mild, with temperatures a good 20-27 degrees above the normal low for the day:

The afternoon looks unseasonably mild again, too… with highs in the upper 50s to right around 60 degrees.  It will be another breezy one, however, so expect a little wind resistance if you’re out for a walk or jog.  This becomes especially difficult when pushing two kids in a double-baby jogger. 

A cold front moves in tonight, bringing in the chance of rain after 9 or 10pm.  Any precipitation will be pretty light, and most of it will be gone early Wednesday.  There is still a slight chance of morning showers in the southern and eastern counties.  Clouds may hang on for awhile Wednesday afternoon, but high pressure brings the return of sunshine for Thursday.  There is not a big push of cold air behind this front, either.  Highs remain in the mid-upper 40s as we finish the week.

The next storm still looks like it will affect us over the weekend.  The computer models have been ALL over the place with this one, and the latest runs look to bring more warm air into the picture.  So this may end up being a rainy storm rather than a wintry mix one.  We will continue to watch it, as the storm really hasn’t even developed yet, and thus a change in track, timing, etc is totally possible.  Stay tuned!

Jamie
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What month is it again?  Yeah, sure doesn’t feel like the end of January.  We are coming off what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year, and we have 50s in the forecast this week!  Unseasonably mild… with highs in the UPPER 50s, even.  This morning’s surface map shows high pressure shifting east of the area, and a warm front moving through:

This will set up breezy southwest winds this afternoon… and help to boost highs into the upper 40s.  The front has also brought a band of clouds to the area this morning, and this has helped temperatures rise a bit already.  If you’ve looked at Live Doppler 2X, you may have  noticed the snow showing up in the northern counties:

This is likely not making it to the ground… maybe a few flurries out of it, but mostly “virga“.  This is when snow (or rain) is falling aloft, but evaporating before it reaches the surface… because it moves into a layer of dry air.  You can see that dry layer on the Skew T below:

This is a vertical profile of the atmosphere; the bottom of the image is near the surface of the Earth, and as you go up on the picture, you get higher into the atmosphere.  This can be difficult to read, but I will describe what you are looking at:  The red line is the actual air temperature as you go up (the diagonal lines show where that temperature is… I’ve highlighted the 0° line).  To the right of the 0° line, it is warmer… to the left, it is colder.  SO, near the surface, when this sounding was taken… it was close to 0°, and as you gain elevation, it got colder.  Now what about that green line?  That is the dew point temperature.  The closer the red & green lines are, the more saturated the atmosphere is.  Here, they are quite far apart, showing us there is quite a dry layer in place.  Thus, the snow not making it to the ground!  I hope that makes some sense

The clouds should break as we get into the “warm sector” of the storm system this afternoon.  (That’s the spot south of the warm front and east of the cold front).  Tuesday looks dry, breezy and unseasonably mild with highs near 57-degrees!  The cold front moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing scattered RAIN showers to the area.  Then cooler air will move in Wednesday afternoon, but temps remain above normal even behind the front for Thursday and Friday.

There is a storm to keep an eye on that has the potential to bring wintry weather into the Miami Valley over Super Bowl weekend.  If you’re traveling to Indy, or even if you’ll just be out and about here in the Dayton area… you’ll want to keep tabs on what’s going to happen.  Right now, it looks like mixed precip or snow, but we’re still a long ways off.  Will keep you posted!

Jamie
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Today’s peak wind gust was 43 mph at the Dayton International Airport, and other communities saw even higher gusts… with an estimated 50 mph reading up in Urbana.  The reason for this, is we have a tight pressure gradient over the area.  The pressure gradient force is the force produced when air with different pressures are placed next to each other– high and low pressure.

There is a strong Low northeast of us, and an area of high pressure to our southwest.  Air flows clockwise around high pressure and towards low pressure.  So our winds are from the west.  This will continue into Sunday… and even be enhanced by a cold front moving through the region through early Sunday afternoon:

This will kick off a few more scattered snow showers, but as has been the case lately… accumulation will be light.  A half-inch will be possible in spots–especically in the northern counties.  We are right back to dry weather for Monday, but it does look like we’ll once again see lots of clouds this week.  Along with the clouds comes warming temperatures, however.  We’ll see mid-40s on Monday, and readings near 50 for Tuesday and Wednesday!

Of course, as it warms you know we’ll see a chance of RAIN before long.  Yes, rain… not snow.  Our mild and wet year continues!  Miami Conservancy District’s dams are already storing water this year… and in fact, they set a new record last year.  Here is the info:

For the first time this year, all five Miami Conservancy District (MCD) dams are storing floodwaters that otherwise could flood cities along the Great Miami River. Piqua, Troy, Tipp City, Dayton, West Carrollton, Miamisburg, Franklin, Middletown, and Hamilton are protected from flooding by MCD’s integrated system of dams and levees.

Storage at the dams as of 2:30 p.m.

·       Germantown Dam: 34.73 feet (storage begins at 12 feet); peaked at 35 feet 1 p.m. today; dam height 100 feet

·       Englewood Dam: 24.16 feet (storage begins at 11.5 feet); still rising; dam height 110 feet

·       Lockington Dam: 16.15 feet (storage begins at 12 feet); peaked at 16.31 feet at 9 a.m. today; dam height 69 feet

·       Taylorsville Dam: 17.13 feet (storage begins at 15 feet); still rising; dam height 67 feet

·       Huffman Dam : 13.72 feet (storage begins at 11 feet); still rising; dam height 65 feet

Huffman Dam is expected to peak this evening while Taylorsville and Englewood dams are expected to peak on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

In 2011, concurrent storage of the five dams occurred on seven different occasions – a new record for MCD. Previously, the largest number of annual high-water events resulting in concurrent storage at all five dams was four.

The MCD flood protection system is designed to protect to the 1913 levels plus 40 percent. During the Great Flood of 1913, the region received between 9 and 11 inches of rain between March 23 and 25.

Have a good Sunday!
Jamie
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Quite the rainfall event, with a good soaking for most, as expected!  Rainfall amounts were a little higher in spots than initially thought… here’s a look at the rainfall totals from around the region:

Area rivers, streams and creeks are running high, and some local roads are closed–mainly the ones that typically have high-water problems when we get a lot of rain.  The only Flood Warning in our area is for the Little Miami River in extreme Southwest Greene Co & extreme Northeast Warren County.

Now we turn our attention to two fast-moving weekend systems.  The first rolls in tonight, with a chance of snow as we head into the early morning hours of Saturday:

Accumulation looks light–generally an inch or less.  But we’ll have to watch for slick spots, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s.  Again on Sunday, some scattered light snow showers will be possible.  I really feel like a broken record with our snow events lately.  An inch here, an inch there.  We never have cold air in place when a high-moisture content storm like yesterday’s moves through.  I’ve been getting a lot of questions about WHY it’s been so mild this winter… and a couple reasons for this weather pattern include La Nina… but more importantly, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Strong positive phases of the NAO are often associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States… something we’ve seen each month this winter.  The NAO forecast for snow-lovers isn’t looking too promising.  We have had one of the most positive on record, although just within the past few days it has dipped into negative status:

The graph above shows us the observed & current NAO.  The red lines are from the GFS ensemble runs, forecasting out about two weeks.  It looks like the negative phase will be short-lived by this… it is likely that we won’t see a big blast of cold air or a big snowstorm in the near future.  There’s always hope for February, right?  My thought right now is that mid-month is the period to watch.  Stay tuned.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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Overnight, we had rain falling across the Miami Valley.  There were spots that saw some freezing rain and sleet, as expected, and that resulted in a thin layer of ice– maybe a tenth of an inch or so– mostly on elevated objects.  When I came to work around 3am, temps were hovering right around freezing with slick spots.  The worst areas were bridges and overpasses, where black ice was common.  But within two hours of getting here, the temperature at the Dayton International Airport climbed from 31-degrees to 34-degrees… as was the case throughout the Miami Valley.  So any ice began to melt, and this caused some slushy spots, too… also slick.  Be sure to take it easy out there this AM if you are heading out early.

Temperatures will continue to rise as the day goes on, so the threat of ice will be less and less.  In fact, we should pop up near 40 this afternoon as the storm system helps to push warm air north:

With the storm moving just south of us, on and off rain will occur today.  The heaviest is still expected in our southern and eastern counties:

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Butler, Warren and Clinton counties until late tonight, as these areas stand the best chance to see excessive rain.  Some may get more than an inch or so.  The ground is already saturated, and this additional heavy rainfall will likely cause some flooding concerns.  Remember, if water does cover a road… “turn around, don’t drown!”  You may not know how deep that water really is.

There could be a few light snow showers on the back side of this system late tonight and early Friday.  During this time, temperatures will again drop just below freezing… so watch for icy patches once again.  Friday afternoon will be chilly, but the SUN should come out!!  That will certainly be glorious after quite a gray week.

Jamie
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Here we go again… another soaker is shaping up for the region.  This storm is already affecting us, as we’re seeing the clouds move BACK into the picture after finally clearing out a bit overnight.  Expect another overcast afternoon, with temperatures similar to yesterday–in the mid 30s for highs.  By the late afternoon and evening, rain chances will be increasing for our southwest counties, and that will then spread northeast through the evening/overnight.

As temperatures drop this evening, there will be areas that see freezing rain.  The good news, is that we’ll be hovering RIGHT around the freezing mark, so icing is not expected to be significant.  The bad news, yes, slick spots will be possible–especially watch the bridges and overpasses.  We could see a little sleet or a few wet snowflakes mix in across the far north tonight, but no real accumulation is expected.

Warmer air at the surface and aloft will be pulled into the region as the storm gets closer on Thursday.  This will change any wintry precip to rain, and it looks like we could see some heavier pockets.  The areas that will see the most rain are south and east of town, as shown by the NAM model:

An inch or even a little more may fall in these spots, with lesser amounts as you travel northwest.  The rain will come to an end by Friday, and we’ll see dry conditions as the sun finally returns!  Temps will be knocked down a bit for the end of the week, with highs back in the upper 30s Friday afternoon.  Again, STILL above normal!!  Saturday looks pretty seasonable, but we’ll turn much colder Sunday as a front comes through.  Our high will only be near 28 degrees, with the chance of a few snow showers.

Jamie
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We are right back to dry and quiet weather here in the Miami Valley, but it is a colder day.  Despite the drop in temperature, we are actually STILL running above normal.  Today’s high will be near 38 degrees (the normal is 35), and tonight’s low dips to 24 (the normal is 20).  And as you know, the entire season has been above normal, on average…

November:  4.4° Above Normal
December:  5.2° Above Normal
January:  2.1° Above Normal

We’ve got lots of clouds around this morning… and they may have a hard time breaking up this afternoon:

High pressure is building in, so that will help… the southern counties may have a better shot at more sun today, while the clouds hang on longer across the north.  It will also be a little breezy today.  While not as gusty as yesterday, it will still add a chill to the air.

Tomorrow  looks pretty similar to today, as quiet and chilly weather coninutes.  But we should start the day with a little sun, and clouds will thicken as we head towards the later afternoon hours.  By the time the evening arrives, we could see some rain or snow showers… overnight even a little freezing rain is possible.  But temperatures will be RIGHT around freezing for lows, so it may not be too much of a travel problem.  We will continue to monitor it.

Thursday, we’re right back to warmer air… and are expecting another potential soaker.  Periods of rain are likely, here are what the models are forecasting… heaviest south:

We’re below normal on snowfall for January by about an inch.  That deficit will continue to grow, with yet another storm being too warm to support snow!  Keep the umbrellas handy!

Jamie
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A line of strong thunderstorms moved through the Miami Valley early this morning–perhaps the rain, thunder or wind woke you a little too early!  I woke up about 1:45am to thunder, and was of course to excited to go back to bed.  I came into work a bit early, where Tara Hastings was monitoring the overnight activity.  Thankfully, we were on the extreme northern edge of the line, and the storms even weakened as they moved through.  We did get some very heavy rain and winds gusted around 40 mph, but no significant damage was reported.  Here’s a look at regional rainfall:

And storm reports:

You can see how the storm damage comes right into Central Indiana, and as the storms moved into Western Ohio they fizzled out.  The storms were a lot stronger to our south–parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama were hit by tornadoes.  Information is still coming in this morning, but a large, strong tornado ripped across the Birmingham metro area between 5 and 7am.  There are reports of significant structural damage, including reports of a town–named Paradise Valley of all things–being completely destroyed.  Reports of fatalities are also coming in… I fear these will increase throughout the day.  Please keep the people of Alabama, and all affected communities in your prayers.

Our weather focus shifts from thunderstorms to wind this afternoon.  A WIND ADVISORY is in effect for the entire Miami Valley from 10am-6pm today.  Winds are expected to gust to 40-45 mph as a cold front moves through… and this is what we could see:

It will also make driving difficult for those with a large vehicle.  If you do get any wind damage today, send us some pictures… reportit@wdtn.com.

Temperatures will also be falling as the day goes on.  We’ve hit early highs near 50-degrees, and as you head home from work during the late afternoon/early evening, we’ll be in the 30s by that time! And highs Tuesday will be in the 30s, too.  The ups & downs of this crazy winter continue!

Jamie
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Well it’s not like we haven’t seen thunderstorms in January before but it is very unusual.  There is a large wave in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  This meteorological term is called a “negative trough” I have highlighted what I am talking about in red.

This basically means there is a lot of energy in the middle layers of the atmosphere and storms will fire along the base of this trough.  When the trough leans more NW to SE this means it has taken on a “negative tilt”  We usually see this during a spring type severe weather pattern but apparently the weather pattern isn’t aware it’s January.

Watches and warnings have already been issued along the base of the trough.  There’s a tornado watch in effect seen here in the yellow box.  Notice our area is highlighted in brown.  This is because we have a wind advisory in effect for Monday.  More on that later….

We have a very strong cold front off to our west.  Expect temperatures to warm later tonight ahead of the front.  I expect thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front tonight and then gather together in a large line in central Illinois.  This line of thunderstorms will race eastward overnight toward the Miami Valley.  Some of the storms may be on the stronger side containing very strong winds.  I have put our Severe Weather Index in the “Elevated” category because these storms require some extra attention.

Notice the best chance of severe storms will be south of Indy and into western Kentucky.

Now onto timing.  All of our computer model guidance is showing these storms will be here between 3-5am.  One concern I have is the speed of this line.  If it really gets moving the storms could be here before that time frame.  It’s something I am watching closely.  Here’s a look at our FutureTrac model and where the storms will be at 4am.

I will be here monitoring the situation and I have already alerted Jamie Jarosik.  Stay safe and we’ll be here!

Tara
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This has definitely been a strange winter around the Miami Valley.  Ice/snow to start this weekend and we’ll end it with a chance of thunderstorms.

First let’s start with some photos and reports of the ice/snow event.  Freezing rain, sleet feel mostly in the central and southern Miami Valley while northern areas picked up the most snow.  Click here for totals from the National Weather Service.

Many area roadways were a a little rough to travel on.  Many viewers sent us photos to our reportit@wdtn.com email account.  Here are a few:

Chris Sweeney                                                                                                           Emily Zengel Camp Kern

Jared Thrush, Huber Heights                                                                                Jared Thrush, Tipp City

Kristie Caldwell, Beavercreek                                                                         Russ Wheeler

Now that this winter event is over we flip back to spring.  Highs on Sunday will be in the middle 40′s ahead of another storm system.  This one is going to bring us warmer air and will give us rain and even the risk of thunderstorms late Sunday night and early Monday morning.

Here’s what’s happening with our jet stream or storm track.

This pattern is what we call negatively tilted.  This means there is lots of “lift” in the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms.  The Miami Valley is on the northern fringe of where the stronger storms may set up.

At the surface we have a cold front racing through the Midwest Sunday.  This front passes through overnight Sunday in the wee hours of Monday.  Here’s a look at how one of our computer models times the front out.

Now this may need to be shifted by several hours if computer models pick up on the cold front slowing down or speeding up.  Right now be prepared to see or “hear” heavy rain and rumbles of thunder very early Monday morning.  To put another spin on the forecast (as if seeing thunderstorms in late January wasn’t odd enough) there’s a chance some of the storms may be on the stronger side.

The Storm Prediction Center has put the southern sections of the Miami Valley in a “slight” or what we call here “elevated” risk.

I will be watching the situation closely of the next 24 to 36 hours and have already communicated with Jamie Jarosik.  Please stay tuned to the forecast on tv and online.

Tara
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The system that moved through yesterday brought light snow to the area.  Just as we forecast, amounts were heavier across the northern counties, with 1-2″ on average.  Southern areas received a dusting up to an inch.  Here is a look at the snowfall totals called in by our Weathercheckers:

No additional snowfall this morning, but it has been the coldest morning of the year and season!  We officially dipped to THREE degrees at the Dayton International Airport.  Here is a look at other morning temperatures from around the region:

Now we look to our next storm, already set to impact the area over the next 24-hours.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for all of the Miami Valley from this afternoon through Saturday morning. It is a very complex forecast, as we will see a range of precipitation across the Miami Valley.  Here is what we expect to see…

NORTH:  Mostly snow
CENTRAL:  Snow, sleet and freezing rain
SOUTH:  Mostly freezing rain

The central and southern Miami Valley will see the most significant ICE accumulation:

And the northern counties will see the most significant SNOW accumulation:

This is a changing situation, however… so these amounts are not set in stone!  We will know much more this evening, as the storm system continues to develop and head our way.  So tune in to 2 News beginning at 5pm… now streaming online!  The perfect place to go to check road conditions before you head home from work, or perhaps out to dinner tonight…  www.wdtn.com is the place to go!  You’ll see the link to the live streaming show right at the top of the page, when we are on-air.

Totals set aside, the main thing to take away from this forecast is that it’s going to be a mess out on the roads this evening… deteriorating overnight and into Saturday.  Here’s the road condition forecast:

We will stay below freezing on Saturday, so untreated surfaces like sidewalks and driveways will continue to be slick.  Park in the garage if you can, so you don’t have to scrape the car!  We’ll continue coverage of this storm with some local weather hits on Saturday morning.  Watch the Today Show from 8-10am Saturday for a look at current conditions.

Fast melting on Sunday… with highs in the 40s, and some thunderstorms even possible Sunday night and Monday morning.  Eeek!

Jamie

A short blog today, as I am heading to Sidney this morning to give a weather presentation!  But there is a lot to talk about, so let’s get right to it…

A couple rounds of winter weather will affect us as we finish off the week.  The first moves in today, bringing snow showers to the area.  The snow will develop first in the northwest and then spread southeast–generally between 9 and 11 am.  We should see some accumulation by the time we get to the evening hours, with the higher amounts across the north as usual:

Snow tapers off tonight, and dry conditions return for the overnight hours and into the first half of Friday.  As we approach Friday late afternoon and evening, the chance for more snow enters the picture.  We may see some light accumulation as this initial energy works in, but it will be minor.  As the night wears on, warmer air aloft enters the picture, and this will help to melt the snowflakes as they’re falling.  So at some point we’ll see the snow mix with sleet–and eventually change to freezing rain:

Friday night and Saturday morning look to have icy conditions, so stay tuned to this forecast if you have to be out on the roads during this time period.  The northern counties may not see as much mixing… so higher snowfall amounts could occur up that way.  We’ll have a better idea of this storm tomorrow, and will keep you posted.  This type of situation is always a tough (and changing!) forecast, as a shift in the storm’s track by just 20-50 miles will have a big impact on any snow/ice accumulation.

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Yesterday morning we had thunderstorms rumbling across the Miami Valley, and picked up near-record daily rainfall, as we officially recorded 1.08″ at the Dayton International Airport (Cincinnati DID hit a record at 1.37″).  Here is what fell in some of our local cities, as reported by our network of Weathercheckers:

And the region was not without severe weather, either.  Thankfully, we missed out here… but check out all the storm reports around:

Remember, I mentioned yesterday some tornado warnings to our southwest… well several tornadoes have been confirmed as of this morning.  Southern Indiana and northern Kentucky got these storms, with portions of metro Louisville getting hit.  They were EF0-EF1 strength, with estimated winds 80-95 mph.  We lucked out missing these twisters!

But, even outside of the thunderstorms… as expected… the winds did howl!  Gusts were particularly strong in the few hours the cold front moved through.  We had a peak wind gust of 49mph at the Dayton International Airport.  Hopefully your trash cans are still in your possession!  And the cold front also did a number on our temperatures… dropping these numbers significantly.  We are 29-degrees colder at 8am than we were at this same time yesterday.  Here’s a look at how the past 24 hours went:

Flurries/light snow showers have still been falling early this morning, but will continue to taper off as we head into late morning.  Winds die down, and morning clouds will give way to some afternoon sunshine as high pressure builds in.  But don’t let the sun fool you!  It will still be cold, with highs struggling to get up to 30-degrees.  The quiet weather doesn’t last long, with the next storm dropping in late tonight and into Thursday.  There could be a few light snow showers across the northern counties late tonight, and the rest of us will see scattered snow tomorrow:

Accumulations look light at this point–maybe an inch or so on average.  We’ll have a better idea tomorrow!

Jamie
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It is 7am on January 17th… and we are currently sitting at 50-degrees in Dayton!  Amazingly mild temperatures overnight, with windy conditions.  The southwest winds will continue ahead of the approaching cold front, and we will remain unseasonably warm through early afternoon.  This is called the “warm sector” of the storm system:

Even thought we’ll be well into the 50s today, we’re not expecting to break any records.  The normal high is 35… we’re forecasting 54… and today’s record high is 63.  Notice back behind the storm, temps are in the 30s in Illinois.  That is also headed our way!  Before the cold air arrives, we’ll continue to see scattered showers–with heavier downpours at times.  Thunderstorms are also possible, and we’ve even had some severe warnings in Indiana this morning, including a tornado warning in the southwest part of that state.  The main threat with any thunderstorms will be WIND as we head through 9am.  You can always check LIVE DOPPLER 2X to see where rain and thunderstorms are right now.

Once the front comes through–between 2 and 4pm–we’ll see very gusty winds and a wind shift.  This will allow that colder air to surge in.  That means falling temperatures during the later afternoon hours.  Most of the moisture will move east with the front, but there still could be a few post-frontal showers.  As the cold air takes over, any lingering rain showers will transition over to snow showers during the evening hours.  We won’t see any accumulation, but things could get slick overnight as temperatures DROP to near 20-degrees for the low.  Watch for ice late tonight and Wednesday morning.  The rest of the week looks colder, with highs near freezing right through Friday.  Over the weekend, there will be some warming… but exactly how MUCH warming is still in question!

In national weather news, the big story is a big SNOW forecast for the Pacific Northwest.  Seattle could get 6 to 14″ of snow through Wednesday!  Wow… jealous. 

Jamie
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I woke up this morning and wanted to stay in bed because it was so cold outside.  The mercury dropped to 6 degrees this morning which is the coldest reading we’ve seen here since early February 2011.  We did see some sunshine today which helped to warm temperatures up a little.  Take a look at the temperature trend.

We are going to warm up for the first half of the new week however we’re going to see some rain with the warmth as well.  A large storm system to our west is gaining strength and will begin to bring us clouds by mid-morning on Monday.  Winds increase out of the southwest later tonight and tomorrow boosting temperatures to near 40.  Here’s a look at where the storm will be by early Monday morning.

First the clouds will increase and then a few showers will develop by later in the afternoon.  The rain will become steadier and may even be heavy at times late Monday night and Tuesday.  Rainfall amounts will vary but computer models are suggesting around a third to as much as a half an inch of rain.

Cold air dives into the area by late in the day Tuesday.  This will change the precipitation over to snow.  However accumulations will be on the lighter side because a lot of the storms main energy will be east of the Miami Valley.  After the cold front moves through the temperature drops!  It will be chilly once again on Wednesday with highs only in the 20′s.

At least we’ll see some sunshine on Wednesday but it looks like the roller coaster of temperatures this winter continues for another week.

Tara
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Apparently winter has slapped us in the face and it doesn’t look like it’s going to let up this weekend.  Our high on Saturday was 23° which is more than 10 degrees below normal.  Here’s a look at how high the mercury really moved today.

Yep that’s it.  Tonight’s lows will be in the lower teens once again.
Our jet stream or storm track is driving cold air from Canada toward the Miami Valley.

This pattern will continue for Sunday but will change on Monday.

On Monday the cold air heads back north and winds begin to pick up out of the southwest.  This allows warmer air to shift northward.  Our highs on Monday will be near 40.  But with the warm up will also come a chance for rain.  A cold front brings breezy southwest winds on Monday and the chance for showers by the late morning and early afternoon time frame.

Guess what happens once the cold front moves through on Tuesday?  Yep – another cold blast of air.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20′s.
Try to stay warm!
Tara
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As forecast, Winter is BACK!  I got new gloves for Christmas, and I am excited to finally be able to break them in today. Maybe the winds kept you up overnight… they’ve been gusting to 40mph this morning, and these conditions are expected to continue as we head through the afternoon hours.  Overnight, snowfall across the region was on the light side… with most locations seeing a half inch to an inch… and some isolated higher amounts:

Mad River Mountain picked up 2″ of natural snow overnight, and made another 6″.  So they are now 100% open, and are expected to stay that way through the holiday weekend!  Today we will continue to see on and off snow showers, with some light accumulation.  Generally, an inch or less in the Dayton area, and slightly higher amounts possible across the north:

Blowing and drifting snow will continue, and that will cause problems for travelers.  It will be especially tricky on the open roads.  Watch for slick conditions throughout the day with temps barely getting into the lower 20s.  Wind chills are below zero at times this morning, and will be in the single digits all day long:

Tonight we’ll drop down to a frigid 12-degrees, but thankfully the gusty winds die down a bit.   Over the weekend, we’ll remain below normal, with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.  Saturday evening/night, a quick-moving Clipper system will affect us, bringing us the slight chance for light snow.  Right now, accumulation looks minimal.  A bigger storm to affect us Mon/Tue.  It still looks to draw in some warmer air, so rain will be the initial precip form… but we could see a change-over to snow as cold air wraps in late Tuesday.

Enjoy the weekend!!
Jamie
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This morning we are actually starting off pretty nice, with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s around the Miami Valley.  There are some areas of drizzle, but rain is really not accumulating, as the heavier stuff has moved off to the east.  Here is where we stand after yesterday’s/overnight rain:

The roads are just WET this morning, with the drizzle.  We’ll likely see roads remain WET through most of the afternoon.  But as we move beyond sunset… things will be changing fast!

An Arctic airmass arrives during the later afternoon hours, and this will do three things:

DROP the temperature:  We will quickly fall into the 20s during the evening hours
CHANGE rain to snow:  Beyond 2 or 3pm, we’ll see the switch
INCREASE the winds:  Winds will be gusting close to 40 mph tonight and tomorrow

So brace yourself for these changes… let all your friends and family know it’s coming!  We don’t want to catch anyone off guard here   The roads will become SLICK this evening.  With the drop in temperature and the increase in winds, our wind chill values could be just below zero at times Friday morning.  It might be a good morning to drive the kids to school, so they’re not standing out at the bus stop in the bitter cold–cold that we’re not used to since it’s been such a mild Winter.  That is… IF school is on-time… the roads could be messy Friday morning.  Not only will there be some light snowfall accumulation by that time, but blowing and drifting of snow will be an issue.  You can always check school closings or delays here:  WDTN SCHOOL CLOSINGS/DELAYS

Here’s what we’re thinking in terms of snow accumulation through Friday…

Generally, an inch or slightly more in the Dayton area… with closer to 2-3″ across the north.  But, again, blowing and drifting may make it difficult to measure any accumulation.  Frigid conditions will remain in place through the weekend, with highs in the 20s for three days straight–our coldest stretch yet this winter.  Overnight lows will be in the teens.  A weak disturbance may bring a few more snow showers to the area Saturday night, but accumulation doesn’t look to be much.  Another storm rolls in early next week.  Right now, that one looks to bring in some warmer air… so rain would fall.  We’ll keep watching it!

Jamie
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After a period of fabulous winter weather… things are changing!  Our stretch of sunshine and 40s comes to an end today… on what we’re calling “Transition Wednesday”.  There are two features that will affect us over the next two days:

One is the storm system to our southwest, which will bring today’s rain.  The second feature is the one that will bring winter back–a strong cold front over the northern Plains this morning.

We’re already feeling the effects from feature #1… as the southern storm is spreading rain into our southwestern counties at 7am:

Click HERE to see the most current loop.

Everyone will get wet as we head through the afternoon, with periods of rain likely.  A few srain howers will linger tonight, and even through the first half of Thursday.  It looks like the cold front will blast through shortly after lunch… sending temperatures tumbling tomorrow afternoon.  We’ll see early highs in the upper 30s, and then plummet into the 20s for the second half of the day.  The winds will also increase, so it will be downright blustery.  Here’s the temperature/wind chill forecast for THURSDAY:

Once the front comes through, rain will change to snow… with the roads initially being just wet.  But as the sun sets and temps continue to drop Thursday evening… snow will accumulate a bit, and slick conditions will develop on untreated surfaces.  Snow showers will continue Thursday night into Friday… and you might need a little extra time to get where you’re going Friday morning.  By the time it’s all over, 1 to 2″ of snow is possible, with some spots potentially seeing a bit more than that.  This is a changing forecast… please check back with us on air and online at Channel 2, and we’ll tweak the forecast later today as more data becomes available!

Get ready for the return to Winter!!
Jamie
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Yesterday was certainly a delightful weather day in the Miami Valley.  Our high hit 46-degrees… which is just over 10-degrees above the normal high of 34.  This afternoon, we’ll make a run at 50 again… but it does not look like we’ll be breaking any records:

Enjoy today, because changes roll in tomorrow.  A storm system will approach us from the southwest, bringing rain to the area:

Yes, once again, we’ll be on the “warm side” of the storm… so it’s rain, rather than snow that will fall on Wednesday.  Ironically, this same storm just helped Midland, TX break a snowfall record!  They were actually on the “cold” side of the storm, and got dumped on yesterday with 10.6″ of snow.  That makes the seasonal snow total for Midland 19.5″… which makes it the snowiest season ever there.  Wonderful… snow in Texas… rain here in Ohio.  Sorry, snow lovers!

We will get a taste of winter, but not quite the serving size folks in the Lonestar State got.  Rain on Wednesday will change to snow as we head through the day Thursday.  We’ll hit early highs in the mid-30s… and then the winds will increase… temperatures will drop… and it will feel much more winter-like.  Snow showers are even possible, but any accumulation looks to be on the light side.  The travel concern will be Thursday late afternoon/evening–as temps drop, wet and untreated surfaces may ice up.  So keep that in mind.

Friday morning will feature a few snow showers, then we’ll dry out for the afternoon.  We’ll still be dealing with the cold, however.  Morning lows in the teens, and afternoon highs only in the 20s!  Temps should remain *just* below normal through the weekend.  There is a storm system to WATCH for early next week.  We will keep you posted–stay with Channel 2 on air and online!!

Have a good Tuesday!
Jamie
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