Here we are at the end of February, and once again we’re talking about the potential for severe weather rather than snow chances.  It certainly has been the Year Without a Winter!  Yesterday, temperatures got out of control!  With breezy conditions, and full sun, we were able to climb into the mid-50s… 54° to be exact!  Colder air has settled into the Miami Valley this morning, and most spots are a good 15-degrees colder than yesterday morning.  We’ll also be a bit cooler this afternoon… but highs will still run above normal.  We’ll be close to 50-degrees.

We start bright, but clouds roll in and thicken through the course of the day.  A warm front pushes in from the southwest late tonight, and that’s when our rain chances start.  It looks to be around/just after midnight, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we head towards the Wednesday morning drive:

So you may get an early wake up, as thunder will be rumbling through the Miami Valley early Wednesday.  There is the potential to see some stronger thunderstorms, too, with damaging winds being the main threat.  Take a look at the wind speeds at about 5000 feet–this is for Wednesday morning:

The low level jet will be in the range of 60 to 80 knots, which will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development.  We will keep an eye on this, with Chief Meteorologist Brian Davis in this evening… and I will likely be coming in extra early tomorrow morning to track these storms.  We have you covered, so stay with us on-air and online for any watches or warnings issued.  You can always sign up for TEXT ALERTS… this is where you can choose the county you want to receive warning information for, and any alerts will be sent right to your cell phone as a text message.

Outside of any thunderstorm, it will still be a windy day.  We’re expecting southwest winds in the range of 15-25 mph, with gusts near 35 mph.  At least the winds will bring in mild air… and it will certainly feel springlike Wednesday, with a forecast high of 63°!  Things cool off a bit behind this storm system for Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s and the return of dry weather.

Jamie
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Today a weak cold front will move through the Miami Valley.  This feature will bring a few clouds to the region, but it will pass through dry.  We’ll  still see plenty of sun today, along with above-normal temps.  Highs will be similar to yesterday–in the upper 40s–but they will likely occur earlier in the day.  Temperatures will drop a bit in the later afternoon hours, turning chilly by this evening.

As high pressure settles in tonight, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.  Good news if you want to head out and check out the beautiful night sky.  I was coming home with the family around 7pm yesterday, and my little 20-month old is pretty obsessed with the moon.  As he pointed it out in the sky, we saw two VERY bright stars near the moon.  I figured they were plants, and upon checking & also reading Tara’s blog from yesterday, this was confirmed!    Jupiter and Venus both shine in the western sky, right along with the crescent moon.  Venus was particularly bright.  You can see them together again tonight, but the placement will be a bit different.  Here’s what it will look like:

Tuesday morning will be a lot colder than this morning, but as the high shifts east of us during the afternoon, we’ll see a nice rebound.  Highs should be near 50-degrees, with a mix of sun and clouds.  Tuesday night, a warm front will lift our way, bringing in the chance for rain.  YES, once again we will be on the warm side of the storm system, so it’s rain we will see rather than snow.  And we could even hear some thunder… something we’ll watch closely for the potential for some stronger wind gusts with any thunderstorm.  Wednesday starts wet, with rain for the morning drive:

But it will be a breezy, mild day, with highs in the lower 60s!!  We are certainly on the wrong side of these winter storms if you want snow.  Remember the storm that brought us the strong winds on Friday?  It was also responsible for that heavy, wet snow in northern Illinois.  I just checked out snowfall totals from that event, and the highest I saw was 9.3″… wow!!  Here is a list of other totals… NORTHERN ILLINOIS SNOWFALL.  So why did they get snow, and we didn’t?  We were simply in the wrong spot.  The best place to see heavy snow is northwest of the low’s track.  Here is a good general rule:

*With a winter mid-latitude cyclone the heaviest snow is 100 to 300 kilometers to the left of the cyclone track. The heaviest snow is often in a narrow band. This region has the greatest combination of cold air and uplift. Snow in association with upper level lows (700 to 500 millibars) tend to be more directly below the low track.

So we were in the wrong spot Friday… and we’ll be in the wrong spot again Wednesday.  The track of the mid-week storm also keeps the cold air northwest of us… as is clearly seen on this morning’s watch/warning map:

I drew the rough forecast low track on the map, too, so you can see the placement.  So Ohio is the wrong spot for snow… but if you DON’T like snow… I guess it’s the RIGHT spot.    We can still get snow in March, but MOST often it’s not much.  I pulled up the past several years, and this is what I’ve found:

So one year out of the last four we got dumped on in early March.  Right now, the planning forecast is calling for a little snow on the backside of a storm–this is at the beginning of the weekend.  It does not look like much at this point.

Oh, and Meteorological Spring begins Thursday. 
Jamie
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We started off the day with a few snow showers and lots of clouds but skies will begin to clear tonight.  Which is fantastic because there’s a neat show you can see for free!  All you have to do is look at the sky tonight.  Look west and you’ll be able to see Jupiter and Venus nearby.  Here’s a sky map

Well see a lot of sunshine for Sunday!  Temperatures will start off chilly in the morning but with all that sunshine we’ll gradually see highs climb into the 40′s.

Notice off to the west in Indiana where temperatures will be in the upper 40′s and even 50′s.  That warmer air is heading our way.  I’ll show you what’s happening at the surface here on Future Trac.

Sunday evening high pressure is going to be featured east of us and low pressure west of us.  That difference in pressure is going to produce windy conditions here in the Miami Valley.  The winds aren’t going to be as strong as what the were on Friday but look for south winds around 10-15mph with gusts near 20mph.

As we start the new work week clouds begin to increase on Monday but rain is not far behind.  Clouds increase on Tuesday as a storm system approaches.  Temperatures are going to rise into the middle and even upper 50′s by Wednesday!  But along with the warmer temperatures comes the rain.  Take a look at Future Trac – on Monday evening a storm system is gaining energy to our west.  It will continue to move eastward for the first half of the week.

Keep the umbrella handy for Tuesday and Wednesday.  And for you winter weather lovers – doesn’t look like we have any big snow storms in the forecast.  There’s a chance for some snow to mix in late Friday – something we’ll have to watch.

Tara
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The strong storm over the Midwest is cranking winds up over the region.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire Miami Valley today:

Winds will be sustained 15-25 mph, with gusts reaching 40-45 mph.  Secure the trash cans, lawn furniture, and garden ornaments!  These strong winds will be ushering in colder air, too.  See the complex set-up on the morning surface map:

The cold front is through, but there is a secondary push of cold air to the west.  That gets here this afternoon, and we will be down into the mid-30s for the drive home… as the winds continue to howl!  With the cold air moving in, any rain showers will transition to snow showers through the course of the day.  Since we’ll be above freezing during the daylight hours, we won’t see any snow accumulation.  But this evening temps will dip below 32, and that means a dusting will be possible in spots.  Also, any roads wet from the melting snow will get a little slick!  So use caution while traveling this evening/overnight.

I have been watching snow bands over Northern Illinois in awe this morning:

So close… and yet so far.  Areas up there have picked up snowfall up to 5-7 inches already!!  It’s a heavy wet snow, so they may have problems with tree limbs coming down, or power outages.  And it won’t be fun to shovel!  The heavy snow stays north of us, but if you want a winter wonderland… it’s just a day-trip away!

Cold weather will continue for us on Saturday with breezy conditions and highs in the mid 30s.  We’ll start off with a few flurries, but will get some breaks in the clouds late-day, as high pressure takes control.  This means nicer weather on Sunday, with some sunshine and temps back in the mid-40s.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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We’re starting off with above normal temperatures again this morning.  But because of scattered clouds in the region–some places are much warmer than others.  Check out the temperature spread here in the Miami Valley:

The places that are at/below freezing will start off with some frost, which may be quite thick if you live in the northern counties.  That’s where we’ve also had some fog issues this morning.  A Dense Fog advisory is in effect for Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby and Logan counties through 9am for visibilities at a quarter of a mile or less in spots.  As the fog mixes out, we’ll see clouds on the increase.  Scattered showers will develop for the early afternoon hours… but that’s all it will be… scattered showers.

There is a chance we’ll see actual thunderstorms this evening, although not a sure bet. Any thunderstorm that DOES develop will have the potential to become strong to severe–quite springlike!  Upper level dynamics/wind fields look good for this to materialize… but we are lacking instability, so we’ll have to see how things play out.  The best shot at thunderstorms will come after 6pm:

As the main storm moves through this evening/overnight, we will see winds really increase.  Gusts to 30-35 miles are possible tonight and even into Friday.  Cold air works in on the backside of the storm, and Friday’s highs will come early–upper 30s in the morning, with steady or falling temperatures in the afternoon.  Add to that scattered snow showers, and winter has returned!  We’ll see lows back down into the 20s Saturday morning, with a high remaining below-normal, in the mid-30s.  But as has been the case all season, the cold air is short lived, and Sunday will feature sunshine and 40s.

Jamie
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One of my favorite parts of my job is visiting classrooms.  Each school I go to I have a different experience and Wilder Intermediate School will be one I always remember.

As I walked into the room I instantly noticed the bright peacock NBC log – what a welcome sign!

Courtesy of Mike Ullery Piqua Daily Call

I should also mention that I had a reporter and photographer from the Piqua Daily Call doing a story on my school visit.  I’m the one normally doing the stories so it was interesting to have someone do a story on me.  Here’s a link to the story via the Piqua Daily Call website.  Please take a look!

I spoke to two different groups of fourth graders for about an hour each.  We talked about how I get all of my weather information, cloud types and radar.  Here I am talking about how the radar works.

Photo from Merrianne Thompson 4th grader science teacher

We also talked about tornado safety.  I was so impressed with this group of kids.  They knew what to do and where to go.  I encouraged them to practice a tornado drill at home just like they do at school.

Photo from Merrianne Thompson

These students had GREAT questions and asked everything from weather to television.  I explained how the green screen worked and where I get all of my weather information from.

At the end of the first group I was able to meet a girl named Shelby.  She gave me a paper saying “I am your number one fan. “  Her teacher Mrs. Thompson came up and told me that Shelby wants to be a meteorologist.  My eyes got wide and I had a huge smile on my face.  I ended up taking a picture of Shelby and can’t wait to see what the future holds for her.

After a long day and lots of GREAT questions from the fourth graders it was time for me to head back to the station.  But before I left the teachers and students gave me a big card (this is the biggest I’ve ever had from a classroom!)

A big thanks to Mrs. Thompson, the fourth graders at Wilder Intermediate and the Piqua Daily Call.   I had a blast yesterday and I am so happy I was able to bring weather into the classroom.

Tara
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We’re starting off with a few clouds this morning… and I actually drove through a brief sprinkle on my way to work this morning… but most spots will be dry for the first part of the day.  Later this afternoon, a better chance for a few sprinkles and/or light showers moves into the area.  Highs will continue their upward trend, and we should be right around 50-degrees this afternoon.  After a few showers this evening, we dry out overnight and Thursday will start off dry.  We will be breezy and mild again Thursday afternoon, with highs in the mid-50s ahead of a cold front.  That front brings in the chance for scattered showers again during the afternoon and evening:

Behind the front, much cooler air will build in for Friday and Saturday.  Both days look chilly–if not cold–and a few snowflakes are also possible.  We’re not expecting much if any accumulation once again, and highs will be in the mid-upper 30s.  Snowfall is running about 9.5″ below normal for the season, and temperatures are 4.4° above normal.  Our non-winter continues!

Jamie
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Yesterday was another amazing February day!  We started off in the teens, and climbed into the low 40s for highs with plenty of sunshine.  A 22-degree jump–not bad at this time of year!  Today, we are starting off about 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday.  You can see a push of relatively warmer air ahead of an approaching cold front:

This storm is going to do two things:
1) Bring scattered showers to the area today
2) Increase the winds, making for some gusts this afternoon

As the precip starts this morning, there could even be a brief period where we see some sleet or snowflakes mix in.  But as temperatures are above freezing, we’re not expecting much–if any–accumulation or icy spots.  Just wet roads for the morning drive.  Any precip changes to all rain through the course of the morning, and we may see some scattered light showers linger into the early afternoon.  Dry conditions build back into the area this evening and overnight.

The storm really doesn’t bring a push of cold air–in fact, tomorrow and Thursday look even warmer than today!  Along with the warmer temperatures, the week will continue to be active.  We have showers in the forecast each day through the start of the weekend, as a trough will be in place over the Great Lakes allowing disturbances to continue to swing through.  Expect highs in the 50s both Wednesday and Thursday, but with afternoon rain from time-to-time.  Early Friday, a stronger cold front moves through.  There are still some timing differences in the models, but it does look to be a chilly afternoon with rain showers ahead of the front… changing to a few snow showers in the colder air behind it.  Saturday is the coldest day of the next seven… with highs in the 30s and a few flurries.

Jamie
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This week looks quite active weather-wise… today being the exception!  High pressure has built in, and while some (especially those in the eastern counties) may start off with some lower clouds around… the afternoon looks quite bright for all!  Temperatures will also be slightly warmer than yesterday.  We made it to 37-degrees Sunday afternoon… today we climb just above normal, with a high of 42.

Overnight, we’ll see clouds increase and the chance for showers is not far off.  Early tomorrow morning, precip will be moving into the area.  Most will see rain, but there is a chance that at least initially, a little snow or sleet will mix in.  This would most likely happen along/north of I-70.  Temperatures Tuesday morning will be right around the freezing mark, so while a few slick spots will be possible… I don’t think it will be a huge concern.  During the afternoon, any precip changes to rain as the atmosphere warms.  Highs will be in the upper 40s, but the winds also increase!  So it will be cool, but on the breezy side with scattered showers:

And the rest of the week will continue to be active as a trough sets up over the Great Lakes:

Disturbances will swing around the trough, keeping us with the chance of showers each day.  And it will be RAIN rather than snow, as temperatures will be warming!  On Friday, the trough deepens, helping to bring a stronger cold front into the region:

It will be turning cooler with rain–possibly changing over to snow.  Stay tuned for more on that.  But in the meantime, we are expecting highs near 50 on Wednesday and into the mid-50s Thursday!

Jamie
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We missed out on all the snow.  Parts of Kentucky and Tennessee are using shovels tonight to clear the sidewalks and driveways.  All we saw today were breezy northeast winds and lots of clouds.  But one state away it was a different picture.

This photo is of the snow in Jamestown, TN.  It was sent to us from Margie Taulbee.

A snapshot of Live Doppler 2x at 6:15pm shows the snow is now moving eastward.

The clouds we’re seeing from this system are going to break up tonight.  That means a clear but chilly evening across the Miami Valley.  High pressure moves over the area for President’s Day.  How perfect is that?  Look for lots of sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures for Monday.  If you have the day off the weather will be perfect to take the kids out to run errands or to the park.

Of course the nice weather isn’t going to last long.  Notice that area of low pressure near Denver?  Well that’s going to move right over our area for Tuesday.  There’s a good chance of rain for much of the day.

The weather pattern for much of the work week is going to be unsettled.  Keep the umbrella handy because scattered showers are in the forecast for much of the week.  It looks like most of them will be rain but enough cold air will move in for the end of the week to see a chance for a few snow showers.

Tara
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Don’t worry about breaking out the shovels this weekend – like much of this winter the snow is going to miss us.  This time it’s going to stay to our south.  An area of low pressure will move from the southwest to the northeast and stay far enough south to bring Kentucky snow but miss much of Ohio.

The storm has already produced winter weather advisories and warnings for parts of eastern Kentucky and West Virgina.  Here’s a look.

So we aren’t going to see any snow but you will notice the clouds from this system tonight and Sunday.  Because of the clouds it’s also going to be much cooler tomorrow than what it was today.  Look for highs only in the low to middle 30′s.

Here’s a look at where the northern fringe of the snow will be…notice we’re staying dry but cloudy.

Most of you are asking where is winter?  We have seen a couple of small snow events along with one ice event.  (I remember that one because I forgot to buy a new ice scraper and had to use my broken one to scrap my windshield.  Since we haven’t had too much winter weather since I may just wait a little longer – maybe I can get one on sale?!?! )

Dayton is  well below normal for snowfall this season.  Here’s a look at where we stand today.

Almost nine inches so far this season but we’re down that much as well.  No major snow storms are in the immediate forecast but we’ll have to see if we can squeeze something out before February ends.

Tara
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We’re starting this High-Five Friday with dry conditions here in the Miami Valley!  BUT we have had a little fog rolling through the region.  Check out the images I captured from the Preble County Sheriff’s office.  You can see there was no fog initially, but in less than an hour it really dropped visibility:

Not everyone is going to see fog like that, but if you do come across a foggy spot, expect visibility to drop down to a half-mile or so.  Any fog should burn off by 9 or 10am.  High pressure is with us today, and this will bring about a delightful February afternoon!  Expect sunshine and above-normal temperatures… with highs again in the mid-40s.  Most of the weekend looks dry, but clouds will be on the increase… and there are two features we’re watching.  The first is a cold front, which will drop in late Saturday:

Ahead of the front, we’ll still make it into the 40s… but the winds will increase a bit.  The front is lacking moisture, so the rain chance is only about 20% Saturday afternoon.  Chilly air filters in behind the front for Saturday night and Sunday.  Sunday morning, lows will dip into the mid-20s… and the afternoon high will be about 10-degrees colder than Saturday’s… as we only make it into the mid-30s.  There is a bigger storm system that will pass south of us on Sunday.  Most of the moisture should stay south of our area, but there is a slight, slight chance of snow across the far southern counties:

The “zone” that will see snow with this storm is a narrow band to our south, so it’s a tricky forecast for Southern Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia.  We will keep an eye on it and keep you posted if the storm trends farther north… because that would definitely mean changes for us!  You can see we’ll literally be sandwiched between high pressure to the north and the low/storm to the south.  This means the winds will be a little gusty on Sunday, and will make for a brisk, blustery afternoon.

Jamie
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We are starting the day with some light to moderate rain moving through the Miami Valley.  This will continue through the morning drive, and a few showers may linger in the area as late as lunchtime.  But all of the rain moves off to the east for the afternoon hours, and we will return to dry conditions.  So far, rainfall has been pretty light–with most locations at .1″ or less.

High pressure builds in for tonight, allowing clouds to break up a bit.  It will be a colder night, too, behind the storm system.  We’ll dip into the upper 20s, so watch for slick spots late tonight and early Friday, as any moisture will freeze up.  Friday afternoon will bring the return of sunshine, and it should be a pretty nice end to the week.  We’ll once again see above-normal temperatures with highs in the mid-40s–which will feel even better with the sun shining:

Let’s hope low clouds don’t bust this forecast.  Yes, that has happened more than once this winter, lol.

Over the weekend, a storm system will move south of the Ohio River.  Most of the precip looks to stay way south at this point… but it’s certainly something to watch.  There is also energy that will cross the Great Lakes, and we have a slight chance of a rain or snow shower in the forecast for Saturday to cover this.  Temperatures will cool a bit for Sunday on the back side of this, with highs near normal in the upper 30s.  Beyond this, the next storm will affect us mid-week.  Looks like a good bet of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday… and possibly some snowflakes on Thursday.

Yesterday, I got to play in the brand new kitchen of our lifestyle show “Living Dayton”.  I joined hosts Nathalie and Zuri to cook one of my family’s favorite dinners… it was so fun!  I absolutely loved sharing the recipe–it’s one that has been in my family for three generations.  And I specifically picked this one because it’s so simple!  You probably already have all the ingredients in your home–there’s no weird herbs or anything.    I hope you will check out the segment and the recipe!  Here’s the link:

JAMIE COOKING ON LIVING DAYTON

I want to leave you with a *lovely* photo sent in by Amy McGill.  She works at a local school, and when a fellow employee was treating the parking lot with salt, he turned around and drove off.  What he didn’t realize was that his tire tracks left two hearts in the snow:

And, yes, this happened on Valentines Day!  Awesome picture, Amy!

Have a great day,
Jamie
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Yesterday, the morning commute turned white, as snow showers moved across the region.  Just as forecast by Storm Team 2, snowfall totals were on the low end of the ruler.  Here are the totals across the area, as reported by our Weathercheckers:

A little drizzle even fell during the afternoon as temperatures warmed into the mid-30s.  Clouds are already streaming into the Miami Valley this morning ahead of our next storm system.  The clouds and a southerly breeze are holding temperatures up this morning.  Yesterday’s high temp hit 36 degrees… and we are sitting at 34 at six o’clock in the morning.  With the (relatively) mild start, it shouldn’t be hard to get into the low 40s for highs today.  It will be a mostly cloudy day, however, so a chilly 42 it will be

Tonight, rain spreads in from west-to-east… generally after midnight.  It looks like a pretty good rain for everyone, but not out of control, with anywhere from a quarter inch to half inch in the forecast:

The Thursday morning commute will be wet, but as the storm pulls away during the afternoon, we will dry out.  And there’s not a huge push of cold air behind the system, so highs will still be in the 40s as we finish off the week and head into the weekend.  On Saturday, another front approaches the area… but it’s lacking in moisture/support, so we won’t have a big sensible weather change.  Just a few degrees cooler for Sunday.

I am very excited to be appearing on our new lifestyle show “Living Dayton” this afternoon!!  I am going to be in the kitchen, cooking one of my family’s favorite dinners–one that has been passed down through generations.  It’s simple–you probably already have the ingredients in your kitchen!  (those are my favorite meals)  It’s a dish that  I know everyone will eat–even the picky 4 year old!  The show starts at noon… I hope you will join us!!  They will post the recipe on the Living Dayton website later today… I hope you like it!

Jamie
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We’re starting off Valentine’s Day with scattered snow showers in the Miami Valley, as expected!  Temperatures have been right around freezing this morning, so we don’t have any huge icy issues by any means… but there are some slick spots out there!  The northern counties–Mercer, Auglaize, Darke, Shelby, Logan–have picked up the most snow so far.   A lot of locations have seen over a half-inch… and some spots closer to one inch already.  This is where we’ll see the highest totals through the day:

Southern counties will be lucky to see much more than a half-inch… as temperatures warm this afternoon and rain mixes in, amounts will be cut down significantly… and whatever falls will melt.  Then a warming trend sets up as we head through mid-week.  Forties are back in the forecast Wednesday through Friday.  As temperatures warm, we’ll see rain rather than snow for Thursday’s storm system.  Right now, the timing of that event looks to be in the morning–so the drive to work may be a little slow.

Over the next week or so… no big snow storms are showing up, as our mild winter continues.

Jamie
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As expected, winter returned over the weekend, with some light snowfall Friday into Saturday… and bitter cold temperatures.  Wind chills dipped below zero at times, and morning lows were in the teens, with afternoon highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s.  Most spots picked up anywhere from a half inch up to two inches of snow, pretty much what we were thinking.  But as has been the case all season, the snowfall was not as much as it could have been because of a little melting.  The sun returned Sunday, and we’re starting today with a little sun… but the next storm system will move in tonight.

You can see the storm to our west on the morning Satellite/Radar imagery:

Ahead of this storm, we’ll see the clouds increase today.  So by the drive home from work this afternoon/evening… we’ll be mostly cloudy.  The daylight hours look dry, with snow then developing tonight.  It looks like it will spread in from the west between 10 and midnight.  Snow continues through the morning rush, and by the time you head out to work Tuesday, we could have up to an inch on the ground.  Scattered snow showers continue into Tuesday afternoon, and as temps warm during the day, we may even see a little rain mixing in across the south.  This would help to cut-down snow totals there.  So depending on how this plays out, total accumulations could range from a half-inch up to two inches.  Another light event, go figure!  But stay tuned to the forecast, as things could always change a bit.  We’ll keep you posted.

Beyond this storm, temperatures actually warm through the middle part of the week.  Highs will be in the 40s by Wednesday, and Thursday’s storm looks to be mainly rain, with the warmer air in place.

Jamie
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We’ve been waiting for a long time for winter to arrive and it appears it’s here.  An arctic cold front pushed through the Miami Valley last night and brought with it some of the coldest air we’ve seen this season.

Not only are we feeling the cold but also saw a little snow.  Here are a few snowfall totals from some of our weather checkers.  Click here to see more snowfall totals from the National Weather Service.

We have seen several small snow events but we’re still running below average for the year.

We have a little snow on the ground and it looks like it will be sticking around through the weekend.  Temperatures with this air mass aren’t going to move very much.  Lows tonight will be in the single digits and wind chills will drop below zero.

The cold is stretching all the way to the gulf coast.  While they won’t see temperatures in the single digits it’s cold enough to have freeze watches and warnings in effect.

Stay warm tonight and throughout the weekend.  This chilly air mass will be here through Monday morning.

Tara
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It’s not a bad Friday morning for mid-February!  We’re starting the day with temps in the mid-upper 20s and dry conditions.  But clouds are thick, and we’ll eventually see some snow fall out of them later this afternoon.  It looks like we’ll be dry through lunchtime, but really any time after 3 or 4pm, scattered snow showers are possible.  Then, the snow increases in coverage through the evening/overnight.  As the snow initially starts to fall, temperatures will be just above freezing, so roads will be mainly wet… but will get worse after sunset:

We can expect around a half-inch through the evening hours, with steady light snow continuing overnight.  By Saturday morning, here’s a look at what to expect:

Most will be between 1-2″, but some isolated spots could be closer to the 3″ mark.  I’ve had many people ask why Butler, Warren and Clinton counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory… and the rest of us aren’t.  We’re all going to see similar snow amounts–possibly even some higher measurements across the northern counties.  BUT advisory criteria for the northern counties is a bit more than the southern counties.  Here’s the break down on how much snow must be forecast to get a watch, advisory or warning:

I know it can be confusing, but the cut-off has to be somewhere… and it just so happens to fall across this area.  Anyway, as the winds increase tonight and stay up there Saturday and Sunday, blowing and drifting snow will also be an issue.  Untreated roads will continue to be slick all weekend, as highs will only be in the 20s and lows dip into the teens.  Sunday morning looks to be the coldest morning, with some spots dropping into the single-digits… wind chills will also be sub-zero at this time.  Again, the blast of cold air is expected to be over by next week.  We should be above freezing again Monday afternoon, and 40s are still in the forecast by mid-week.  There are a few storms to watch next week, too… best chances for precip right now look to be Tuesday and Thursday.  Could be some mixed precip, too… will get a better feel for it as we get closer.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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High pressure settles into the region today, bringing the return of dry weather and sunshine.  Skies cleared out overnight for most of us, but there are low clouds to our south:

You can see on the morning temperature map, how low clouds can act as a “blanket”… as temperatures are “warmer” under the clouds… and colder where clearing has taken over:

In the far southern counties, you may be dealing with some of the low clouds early on.  But we do expect a lot of sunshine this afternoon.  That will help to push our highs into the upper 30s.  While it’s chilly, these numbers are right around the normal high for this time of year, which is 37-degrees.

High pressure shifts east of us on Friday, and an Arctic cold front heads our way.  Clouds will increase ahead of this feature, and snow showers will develop shortly after lunch Friday afternoon.  We’ll continue to see scattered snow showers through Friday night:

Accumulation once again looks light, with most spots getting an inch or less.  Nevertheless, things could be slick for the Friday evening commute, so plan accordingly.  The big story will be the COLD BLAST for the weekend.  Highs will only be in the mid-20s on Saturday, with overnight lows near 10-degrees by Sunday morning.  Wind chill values will also be sub-zero during this time frame!  BUT, you know how hard it’s been to get cold air to STICK this Winter, and once again, all of this is short-lived.  We’ll see a warm-up starting at the beginning of next week.  We should be back in the 40s by Wednesday!

Jamie
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The title of this blog pretty much sums up the rest of the week!  We’re starting this Wednesday with scattered snow showers across the Miami Valley.  As expected, the heaviest/steadiest is falling in our southeastern counties.  But I use the word “heavy” loosely.  Most locations will see under an inch of snow accumulation.  Here is the 7am image of Live Doppler 2X:

Click HERE to link to the current loop.

We will keep an Elevated Winter Weather Index through the rest of the morning, as temperatures are right around freezing, and slick spots will remain possible.  The snow moves out of here shortly after the lunch hour, with dry conditions returning this afternoon.  The clouds may break a bit late-day, but it will be chilly right through the drive home, with highs in the mid-30s.

As high pressure builds back into the area Thursday, we’ll see plenty of sunshine once again.  It will still be a chilly–but near-normal–day, with highs in the upper 30s.  Back in the upper 30s on Friday ahead of an approaching Arctic Cold Front.  When I was doing radio on Mix 107.7 this morning, I decided I need an echo effect every time I say “Arctic Cold Front” on-air… that would be awesome   Anyway, this front will send temperatures plummeting over the weekend.  Lows will be in the teens, with highs in the 20s both days.  Sunday morning, some locations may even dip into the single digits.  But, as has been the case all winter, the cold won’t last much longer THAN the weekend.  We’ll be back near normal as we head into the new week.

Remember, you can always catch my forecast on 2 News Today… not only on TV, but also streaming LIVE on wdtn.com every morning from 4:30am-7am.  2 News at Noon has been replaced with our new Lifestyle show, Living Dayton.  We are going to start including a short weather segment at the beginning of the show, to keep you updated.  Have a great day!

Jamie
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