The atmosphere continues to heat up this afternoon with all of the Miami Valley experiencing temperatures in the upper 70′s as of 1:00 PM and even an 80 degree reading in Springfield! If you’ve been outside lately, you can actually feel the increase in moisture and humidity and it even feels somewhat “sticky” out there. Here is a look at the current surface map and temperatures. You can see the increase in temperatures in the warm sector across Indiana and Ohio.

Storms are developing across portions of Illinois and these storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity as they spread into portions of Indinaa. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the outlined areas (portions of Illinois and Western and Southern Indiana) for a potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Our latest run/update of one of our high resolution forecast models has a line of thunderstorms, likely strong or severe, knocking on the Indiana/Ohio line by 7:00 p.m. this evening. This line will spread across the Miami Valley during the mid to late evening hours with a threat for damaging winds and possibly large hail. The atmosphere also has plenty of moisture to work with, so heavy rainfall is definitely a possibility.

Stay with 2 News & Storm Team 2 throughout the afternoon & evening for the latest on the severe weather and of course we’ll bring you the latest watches & warnings at WDTN.com.

Brandon

A meandering frontal boundary and several waves of energy aloft this week will keep us with the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It won’t be a wash-out, but keep the umbrella handy now through Wednesday morning as periods of rain affect the area.

We did have a few early morning thunderstorms pop across our northern counties today, as a warm front is moving into the Miami Valley.  We’ve been running almost 10-degrees warmer than we were 24-hours ago:

And even warmer readings are on the other side of that front.  As the front moves north of us this afternoon, winds will increase from the southwest and highs will climb back above normal.  We should make it into the mid-70s in Dayton–a little cooler north of town, and a little warmer south of town.

Much of the day looks to be dry in the “warm sector,” but the rain chances then increase late this afternoon and into the evening as a cold front approaches from the west:

Any thunderstorm that moves in later today will have the potential to be strong to severe, and the Storm Prediction Center has included us in an ELEVATED risk for severe weather today:

The front will be just south of us on Tuesday… and lift back north as a warm front through Wednesday morning.  While we start Wednesday with the chance of rain, we will dry out and REALLY warm up on the other side of that front during the afternoon.  Expect 80s for the second half of the week!

Jamie
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After our warm March many wondered if April would follow suit – however it didn’t.  Although April has been on the cooler side overall the monthly temperature is about average.  One thing that sticks out in my mind about April’s weather is the chilly nighttime temperatures.  The National Weather Service kept issuing freeze warnings and frost advisories because for five mornings during the month the temperature was at 32 degrees or lower.  I would like to *hope* we’re done with the freezing temperatures but once we get past Mother’s Day I’ll feel a little more confident.  This might be because I’ll have planted my flowers and vegetables.

As far as precipitation we could have used a little more rainfall.  April ended up being below normal for precipitation and we’re still below normal for the year.

One thing I am looking forward to is the increase of daylight.  (of course sunlight late in the evening isn’t great when I have to fill in on the morning shift) It’s always great to see (and hear) the kids playing outside enjoying the day.
I took a look at the sunrise and sunset times for April and May – there’s quiet a big difference!

I hope this is something we can all look forward to!
Tara
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I took my first vacation of the year last week and went to my favorite place – my grandfather’s farm.  Nestled in western Kentucky off an old gravel road is a place I have been going to all my life.  My grandfather bought this property more than 30 years ago and retired here.  He actually grew up across the road so he knows the lay of the land like the back of his hand.  The two bedroom farm house sits about a quarter mile away from the road.  I started to smile and turned off the radio when I hit the lane to hear the sound of the gravel on my tires.  Seeing the dust in the rear view mirror brought back so many great memories from my childhood.

There’s no internet, no 3G phone service but there’s no need for either.   Swinging on the front porch reading a book, watching the horses graze or counting the cars pass by on the road can entertain you for hours.

I spent so many summers here as a child: feeding the cows, riding horses, cutting the grass (a riding lawnmower makes it so much more fun as a kid), fishing, riding four wheelers and just listening to the birds chirp.  I feel like this is and will always be my home.
There’s so much history on this land as well.  Buildings and trees have weathered many storms and there are so many stories to tell.  I noticed the old barn that has been there all my life is on it’s last leg.  It was built around 1900 and it has seen better days.

It is now leaning well to the right and I’m afraid a strong wind gust will likely bring it down one of these days.  Luckily several years ago my grandfather built a new one for the horses and his tractors.

This is a close up view.  My grandfather told me a story that his father (my great grandfather) helped the owner repair the barn after a strong wind storm damaged it in the early 1900′s.  I’m not sure there’s much left to repair.  I do remember my grandfather stored bales of hay, his tractor and even brought the horses in this barn to saddle them up for a ride.  Now he’s a afraid to go in there and everything he needs is now out of it.
Here’s what the backside of it looks like.

The weather finally warmed up a bit on Thursday so my grandfather and I went on a four wheel ride.  It’s my favorite thing to do there.  While I know the property inside and out it’s always great to see how things have changed since I’ve been there.  My grandfather no longer has cattle but he rents his land out to another cow farmer so we always have to stop to open and close the gates.

We rode all around and ended up stopping at my favorite tree.  I have no idea why I love this tree so much but I do.  I guess it’s because the tree sits several hundred feet away from the main tree line and it’s so unique.  I’m not 100 percent sure  but my grandfather tells me he thinks it’s a weeping cedar tree.  Very rare and it might be the only one in the county.  He just told me while I was on my visit a newspaper reporter from Louisville came out before he bought the property and did a story on this tree.  I’m planning on doing a little more research to see if I can find an article.  However the fact that it was written in the 60′s or 70′s might prove to be a little difficult but I like a challenge

A large ice storm hit western Kentucky a few years ago and the weight of the ice really took a toll on the branches however I’m glad to see it survived and is still thriving. Seeing this tree makes me wonder where did it come from? Why did it grow away from the main tree line? How old is it?  I’m not sure I’ll get the answers to these questions but that’s ok – I’ll just enjoy the view.

I had such a great time visiting family and enjoying the peace and quiet of the farm.  It’s great to get away every once in a while, leave the technology behind and enjoy the view.  I hope you have a similar place that brings you happiness.

Tara
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Beginning on April 25th, 2011 a multi day multi state tornado violent tornado outbreak would begin to impact portions of the Plains, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and primarily the South. Over the course of 4 days, from April 25th, 2011 through April 28th, 2011, 358 tornadoes would be confirmed in 21 states.

The worst of the outbreak would begin to unfold on April 27th, 2011. The Storm Prediction Center had issued it’s rare high risk for portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia. A moderate risk and slight risk was outlined for a large area stretching from Arkansas and portions of Florida all the way to the Miami Valley and even up into portions of New York.

A very powerful weather system developed and moved towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by the morning of April 27th. An unusually strong jet stream combined with the strength of this system and very warm and moist air out ahead of the system would lead to an unusually dangerous atmosphere, particularly across portions of the South.

A strong squall line with embedded tornadoes impacted a large portion of Alabama and Mississippi during the early morning hours of April 27th, 2011. This intense squall line left thousands of people without power and also knocked out power to numerous outdoor weather warning sirens in the area (this is why we believe so strongly in having multiple methods of receiving weather warnings). This line of storms also took out telephone lines and caused several NOAA weather radio transmitter sites to go offline.

As the squall line shifted out of the area by mid morning hours, the atmosphere had ample time to heat up and destabilize. By the mid afternoon hours, the atmosphere was a ticking time bomb across portions of Mississippi. Storms began developing as early as 2:00 PM and there was so much rotation and wind shear in the atmosphere, every storm began to rotate and take on a hook echo characteristic. You can see that visually by looking at this radar loop from later in the day as tornado producing storms moved towards Central Alabama.

By 3:00 PM CDT, the tornado outbreak was in full progress with a large damaging tornado, later rated an EF4, moving into the City of Cullman, Alabama. The tornado did extensive damage in Cullman, a city with nearly 20,000 people. The tornado in Cullman damaged 867 residences and 94 businesses! Here is a picture of the tornado as it moved into Cullman captured via local television outlet’s tower cam.

As if one large violent tornado hitting a large population center was not enough, the day would only get worse with a very long tracked and long lived supercell producing violent tornadoes in Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and tracking all the way into North Carolina. This violent supercell originated in Newton County, Mississippi at 2:54 PM CDT and traveled 380 miles before finally weakening in Macon County, North Carolina at 10:18 PM CDT. Here’s an amazing image with radar captures overlaid of the entire track of that intense supercell.

The National Weather Service Offices did an amazing job on April 27th, 2011 issuing hundreds of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings stretching from New York all the way to the Gulf Coast. Here is a look at the most concentrated portion of the outbreak and the numerous warnings that were issued across portions of the South. Red boxes indicate tornado warnings, yellow severe thunderstorm warnings and green flash flood warnings.

The multi day tornado outbreak left 346 people dead, 325 of those deaths being caused by tornadoes. The April 27th tornado outbreak was really a worse case scenario with multiple large and violent, long lived tornadoes impacting large metropolitan areas.

Could another large tornado impact the Miami Valley or impact a large metropolitan area in Ohio? The answer to that is that it is absolutely possible. At some point in time, another large tornado will strike a metropolitan area in the Ohio Valley. That is why self preparedness is so important. We learned valuable lessons following the April 27th tornado outbreak, and one of the most important lessons was that all of us need multiple methods of receiving weather warnings. We can’t just rely on outdoor weather warning sirens, we can’t just rely on NOAA weather radios. A combination of multiple devices and methods to receive weather warnings is the best practice. If you don’t own a NOAA weather radio, they can be purchased at most retail stores and they can and do save lives!

Brandon
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Or as Jim Bucher would say when it’s ME giving the forecast, “Krummy start to the weekend…” in reference to my maiden name, Krumheuer.  Do you remember when he used to call me Krumcake??  He still does… just not on-air

Anyway, today high pressure is building down from Canada.  It has brought a very cold morning, as many spots have dipped into the lower 30s.  A Freeze Warning continues for the northern counties (Darke, Shelby, Logan, Mercer and Auglaize) through 9am.  The Dayton Airport dipped to 33-degrees… and there was some light frost in spots.  Here are 8am temps:

The one good thing about today: the sunshine.  We’ll see plenty of it as we head into the afternoon.  While temperatures will be running about 10-degrees below normal, it will feel pleasantly cool with the sun.  Clouds will be on the increase tonight, as the next storm moves in.  By Saturday morning, an area of rain will be moving in from the west:

Periods of rain will continue on and off on Saturday, with the best chance in the morning, and then again in the late afternoon and evening.  It will be a rainy (at times), breezy and chilly day!  Check out the forecast highs… much cooler as you go north:

The record low HIGH temperature Saturday afternoon is 45-degrees in Dayton.  We’ll be close.

Sunday will start with clouds, and if we can get them to break in the afternoon (which we have a good chance of doing)… it will be a really nice day.  Highs should make it into the lower 60s Sunday afternoon, with 70s on the way for much of next week!

Today is April 27th–the anniversary of the Super Tornado Outbreak.  Our own Brandon Redmond will be doing a detailed blog about this later today.  I did a summary after attending a conference in Birmingham, AL last year… you can read it HERE.  More to come this afternoon!

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This morning, it was quite loud and stormy in parts of the Miami Valley!  I had a 1:30am wake-up call from Mother Nature, as a non-severe thunderstorm moved through Montgomery County.  Between then and about 5am… there really weren’t any severe storms.  But as storms moved into Miami and Shelby Counties shortly after 5am, we started to get some warnings.  Hail was the main problem with these thunderstorms, and I’ve seen several reports of anywhere from pea sized right up to 1″ hail–the size of quarters.  Here are where the larger hail reports were:

The storm system is moving through the area right now, as you can see on the morning surface/temperature map:

Once it passes (by 10 or 11am) we will be in the clear–no more rain.  We won’t LITERALLY be in the clear, though, as clouds will hang around–just a little sun.  The winds increase from the northwest as the storm moves away this afternoon, so it will become breezy.  It will also turn colder, and the northern counties are under a FREEZE WATCH tonight into Friday morning:

High pressure builds in for Friday, so dry conditions will continue for us.  It will be cooler, though, with highs in the mid-50s… about 10-degrees below normal.  The weekend will start with some miserable weather.  We have not had much luck with Saturdays lately!  Expect rain chances to be pretty high through the day with lots of clouds, breezy conditions, and chilly temps.  Highs in the northern Miami Valley will likely be in the 40s, with a high near 50-degrees in Dayton.  Ick.

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As Jamie mentioned in the blog entry this morning, the Miami Valley has been placed in an “Elevated Risk” for severe storms this evening and tonight.

A light band of rain showers is currently moving through the Western portions of the Miami Valley. This area of rain is associated with the warm front which is currently moving into the Miami Valley. Warmer air can be seen behind the front across portions of Central Indiana.

Temperatures across Indiana have climbed into the 60′s with 70 degree readings showing up across far Western Indiana and Illinois. In Fact as of 1:00 PM, Terre Haute, Indiana had climbed to 72 degrees. As the warm front lifts north, the low clouds will give way to some temporary sunshine and temperatures should continue to climb into at least the middle 60′s and possibly the upper 60′s depending on how much sunshine and heating we are able to get.

As temperatures begin to warm this afternoon, the atmosphere will become unstable across portions of Illinois and Indiana and showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop. These storms will push into the Miami Valley late this evening and overnight tonight. While the threat for severe weather does exist with any storm that develops, a few of the factors needed for severe weather are not quite coming together as earlier thought and therefore the severe weather threat does not appear to be as great as earlier thought. The main threats with any strong or severe storm will be the potential for gusty winds and hail.

Chief Meteorologist Brian Davis will have the latest on the storm potential on 2 News at 5 p.m. and of course we’ll have any watches and warnings posted online at WDTN.com.

Brandon
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We’re starting off as a Miami Valley divided!  Check out the temperature spread this morning:

Readings are warmer closer to–and especially on the other side of–a warm front:

Most of the day will be dry, with mild readings in the mid-upper 60s.  If you want to get outside, the best chance will be now through early afternoon… then the chance of rain returns by late afternoon.  Showers will move in from the northwest, riding in right along the warm front.  As we head through the evening and into the overnight, rain chances will actually increase even more.  The Storm Prediction Center has us in an Elevated Risk for severe storms tonight:

Be sure to check back on Channel 2 with Chief Meteorologist Brian Davis–he’ll have an update to storm chances in our 90-mintues of news beginning this evening at 5.  And a look at any ongoing severe weather with Live Doppler 2X at 10 on the CW and 11pm on Channel 2.  We will also keep you posted of any watches or warnings online, at wdtn.com.

Thursday will start off with some showers in the area, but the rain moves out by afternoon.  Today: not as windy… but Thursday does look a little breezy, behind the storm system.  We should still make it into the mid-60s Thursday… and then turn cooler for Friday, with highs in the upper 50s.  Late Friday, another warm front lifts in, and that will bring in the chance of rain again.  Saturday looks quite soggy still, with the boundary setting up right over the Miami Valley.  We will continue to keep you posted, as the models have looked different each day this week.  We’ll get a better feel for the weekend forecast as we get a little closer.

Jamie
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We have one more breezy day to get through before winds die down a bit… and warmer air returns.  Yesterday was quite gusty, with the highest gust topping out at 44 mph.  This did cause some power outages and limbs down in parts of the Miami Valley.  Today, winds will be coming in from the northwest, and will still be up there– 15-20mph sustained… with gusts near 30mph.  Not *quite* as gusty as yesterday, but still breezy.

A warming trend starts tomorrow, with highs back in the mid-60s for a couple of days.  A warm front southwest of us will lift in late in the day, and the next chance of rain comes with that front Wednesday evening and overnight.  There will likely still be some showers and thunderstorms around for the Thursday morning drive, with a cold front moving in:

Some of these storms will have the potential to produce some hail, so we’ll have to watch that.  Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has an elevated risk of severe storms just south of Dayton… including Butler, Warren and Clinton counties:

After starting Thursday a bit stormy, we should see some dry weather during the afternoon.  But rain chances actually increase again on Friday, as the front moves back north as a warm front.  And… it looks to stall out, so we could potentially be QUITE rainy Friday… and even into Saturday… and possibly even Sunday morning.  Yes, it looks like quite the unsettled period for us!  A nice soaking rain looks likely for most of the Miami Valley–models are showing anywhere from 3/4″ up over 1.5″.  Let’s see how they trend over the next couple of days…

Jamie
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A major storm system has really strengthened east of us this morning.  Heavy, wet snow is expected in spots… with the highest accumulations expected in parts of New York and Pennsylvania:

Some of the higher elevations could get even more snow… up to a foot or so.  Eeek!  We are starting off with some clouds in our eastern counties… on the back edge of that storm system, as you can see on the satellite/radar image below:

But the clouds will not bring us any precip… we stay dry today.  What we WILL see is another cool (if not chilly) day, with highs in the 50s… AND very windy conditions as we head into the afternoon.  Winds are expected to strengthen from the northwest– 15-25mph sustained with gusts 30-35 mph today.  So secure any loose objects outside of your home… and hold onto your hat!

The breeze stays up there this evening, so expect a chilly Dragons game:

Overnight, we’ll drop into the low-mid 30s again… but the breeze will help to prevent frost formation.  Some spots could get close to freezing by early Tuesday morning, so it’s another night to protect plants.  A bit of a warming trend develops beyond tomorrow morning… upper 50s Tuesday afternoon, and back into the mid-60s Wednesday and Thursday.  But the chance of rain also returns by mid-week.  Right now it looks like the best shot is Wednesday night into early Thursday.  We will continue to keep you posted!

Enjoy your Monday!
Jamie
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Just when you thought the chilly air was out of here another blast comes hurtling down from Canada.  Yep folks we have another freeze warning in effect until 9am Monday for the Miami Valley.

If you have any plants that can’t handle the cold make sure you cover them up or if you can bring them indoors.  This isn’t the first time we’ve seen temperatures fall at or below the freezing mark this month.  April 10-12th temperatures dipped near or below freezing.

I did some research and found out that it’s not unusual to have freezing temperatures this late in April.  The “average” date of the last 32 degree temperature in spring is April 19th.

So what’s causing this chilly air?  Well a large area of low pressure along the east coast is drawing in colder air from Canada.  Here’s how it looks in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The storm along the east coast is going to stay far enough way from us on Monday so it’s not going to give us any precipitation.  However it will bring us cooler temperatures for Monday and pretty breezy winds. But it could be worse – areas east of us are under winter storm warnings.

Snowfall amounts in the higher elevations could amount anywhere from 5-10 inches!  For us the winds switch direction Monday and increase.  Look for some sunshine but breezy conditions for Monday afternoon.

We’ll stay dry until late Tuesday when another storm system brings us a chance for rain.  Until then make sure you keep the jacket around for the next several mornings.

Tara
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Last weekend I told everyone that it was going to be cooler this weekend with highs in the 50′s.  I was prepared for it (as I hope you were too) however not seeing the sun today and being outside with highs in the lower 50′s was a shock to the system.

I spent the morning putting up blue pinwheels around Christ United Methodist Church on Shroyer road in Kettering.  My sorority’s (Kappa Delta) Dayton alumnae chapter volunteered to put them together and “plant” them around the church for Prevent Child Abuse America, our sorority’s national philanthropy.  I dressed in layers and brought my rain jacket but forgot gloves.  The rain had stopped but I’m glad it did rain because the ground was a little softer.  The pinwheels went into the ground a little easier because the ground was wet.  (Although I did break two pinwheels while trying to put them in the ground – apparently I should scale back the weight training) Here’s a photo from this morning.

Today we made it into the lower 50′s and I’m afraid the rest of the weekend isn’t going to be sunny and warm.

Our normal high is 64 and we won’t see that until at least the middle of the week.  So be prepared for some chilly nights with lows in the 30′s.  If you live in a spot that is usually several degrees colder than the airport you may want to cover up some of your plants because there could be some patchy frost.

Even with a little sunshine on Sunday temperatures are going to stay in the middle 50′s.  This is due to a big area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Our jet stream or storm track is going to dive south and bring the chilly air with it.  This pattern is going to stick around until late Monday.

Winds begin to pick up Monday out of the northwest as a storm system rides along the east coast.  The precipitation is going to miss us -notice I said precipitation and not rain.  That’s because the air is just cold enough to bring snow – yes snow to parts of the northeast.  Geez – can you imagine after the March we had to see snow at the end of April?!?!?  Here’s what things look like on Monday evening.

Hopefully those folks haven’t put away their winter weather gear just yet.  Enjoy the weekend chill.

Tara
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Today is our last day in the 70s for awhile.  A cold front will move in late-day, bringing in the big changes for the weekend!  We’re starting off mild, with morning temperatures already climbing into the 60s… and we should push into the mid-70s for highs today, very similar to yesterday afternoon.  It will be a bit windier, and winds will shift in from the northwest after the front comes through.  Here’s Futuretrac’s forecast for late afternoon:

It’s about a 30% chance of spotty showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon–after 4 or 5pm.  A severe weather EVENT is not expected… but there could be some stronger winds in any thunderstorm that develops.  The window of opportunity for this is small, however, just a couple of hours… between 4 and 6pm.

Then rain activity will taper to showers after the front comes through, but showers could linger into early Saturday morning.  High pressure builds in for the afternoon, and the clouds will break up later in the day.  MUCH cooler air moves in for the weekend behind this front… you can see the lower temps to the northwest:

Back into the 50s for highs Sat/Sun, but at least we’ll be dry for most of the weekend.  That storm really strengthens over the East Coast states & will bring some heavy rain to locations from Florida to the northeast–even snow possible in spots…wow.  Back home, we’ll see a bit of a warm up as we head through next week, but the chance of rain on any given day is still up in the air.  Right now, it looks like at least low rain chances as the warm air returns.  Stay tuned!

I was lucky to have a great job shadow today!  Bryan–who works in meteorology, but not in TV–came in to see what this job is all about!

You can follow Bryan on Twitter: @bryanwx … he has GREAT weather info there, local and national!!

Enjoy the cooler weekend!

Jamie
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As high pressure moves east of the Miami Valley, we’ve seen a southerly wind develop today.  That, combined with sunshine, will push afternoon highs a little more than 10-degrees above normal!  Both today and Friday we’ll climb into the mid-70s… awesome!  Today, winds will be light… and they’ll increase a bit Friday for a breezy afternoon.  Expect dry weather both days, too… but by Friday evening, rain chances will be increasing as a cold front approaches:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night, and a few showers may linger early Saturday.  But the BIG story over the weekend will be the COOLER air that moves in.  Highs will only be in the mid-50s, with lows dipping into the upper 30s for a couple nights.  If you are fortunate enough to be attending the Mix 107.7 Time Warp Prom (sold out), you’ll need to bring your jean jacket!

Next week will feature another warm-up… and we should be back above normal by mid-week.  Until then, enjoy the 70s… and hang in there through the 50s. 

I just received an email from my farmer friends up in Fort Loramie.  Amy tells me this is the time of year that our local farmers get VERY picky about the weather.  It’s been dry lately, so they’ve had plenty of time to get work done–working the ground, doing other maintenance things around the farm.  Some have planted, some have not… they’re waiting till it’s a little later in the season, fearing another frost or freeze.  Most of the rain that fell this past weekend ended up in the southern half of the Miami Valley.  So the farmers in our northern counties are looking for some rain right about now.  Again, we will get some Friday night… but amounts look to be relatively light… around a quarter of an inch will be possible.   I always find it so interesting to know what’s going on on our local farms, and I hope you like reading the updates throughout the season.  Thank you to Amy for keeping us in the loop

Last, I have to give a shout out to the 4th graders at Helke Elementary in Vandalia!!  I was there yesterday giving a weather talk–the kids were great, and the staff too!  Wonderful questions… what a smart bunch!

Have a good one!!
Jamie
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Yesterday’s temperatures were very close to normal… so it really was  a typical April day!  Here’s your almanac:

While we’re looking at numbers… let’s check out rainfall.  Until this past weekend, we had only picked up a trace of rain for the month… and we were about half-way through.  A nice rain event on Saturday caught us up a bit… as we picked up about three-quarters of an inch at the airport.  Areas south of there actually saw more… some over one inch!  We remain more than an inch below normal for the month and year:

We will continue to see dry conditions, under the influence of high pressure for the next two or three days.  Today looks pleasant, with highs in the upper 60s… just above normal.  As winds shift in from the south Thursday, we’ll see highs push into the mid-70s.  A nice warm up for the second half of the week!  The rain we’ve been watching for this time frame looks like it will stay just north of the area Thursday, as seen on Futuretrac:

But by Friday evening, a cold front will approach the area.  Ahead of the front, we’ll once again be into the 70s for a beautiful afternoon.  Then, evening and overnight showers and even a few thunderstorms will roll in.  The rain hangs around for the weekend–best chance on Saturday, with a few lingering showers on Sunday.  Big changes in temperatures here… with highs about 5-10 degrees below normal:

It will feel even cooler, with limited sun and some rain.  There is some model disagreement for next week… so I’ve lingered a slight chance of showers into Monday, with a slow warming trend beyond that!

Have a great Wednesday… we’re half-way to the weekend!
Jamie
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We’ve dropped into the low and mid 40s behind the cold front this morning, and this afternoon we’ll only make it into the lower 60s.  While cooler than we have been, this is actually right around normal for this time of year–the normal high is 63, and the normal low is 42.  Good news today: we won’t be nearly as windy as we were yesterday!  For awhile winds were gusting over 40 mph… here’s a look at hourly observations:

This morning, winds are light and we’ll stay in the 5-10 mph range through the day, with high pressure building in from the north.  A system south of us will STAY south of us, but we will get the clouds from this feature from time to time.  So we’ll call it a partly sunny 2′s Day.  Like that?  Dan Edwards came up with it last week… and I think it’s quite catchy. 

Anyway, as the high shifts east of us Wednesday, winds will start to come in from the southeast… and this will start a warm up for the area.  Mid-week highs will be in the upper 60s, with 70s on the way for Thursday and Friday.  Rain chances remain low until we get to Friday evening/overnight.  The next system moves in then, bringing a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Rain will likely linger into Saturday… and we can’t rule out something on Sunday.  The big story for the weekend will be the COOLER air moving back into the Miami Valley.  Highs will only be in the 50s, and lows will drop into the upper 30s.

Until then, enjoy the warm-up
Jamie
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What a wild weekend in the central United States.  As expected, a tornado outbreak occurred on Saturday, and you can read more about this in Meteorologist Tara Hasting’s blog here:  WEEKEND TORNADOES

Storm Team 2′s newest meteorologist, Brandon Redmond was in Kansas storm chasing this event.  He had a very close call, as his chase vehicle came right into a tornado Saturday evening.  You can see the scary moments here:  METEOROLOGIST BRANDON REDMOND’S LOOK INSIDE A TORNADO

Thankfully, Brandon and his team members are ok.  We want to stress that storm chasing is NOT something you should do if you are not properly trained.  As you can see, it can be extremely dangerous, even for experienced chasers.  This team of chasers was VERY lucky to have made it through that experience alive.  I know it can seem cool and exciting when you watch the storm chase reality shows, and see the images/video on TV… but we do NOT recommend this.

Today, we are getting the “left overs” from the weekend storm system.  The atmosphere has lost the ingredients for severe weather, so instead of strong thunderstorms, we’re starting the day with a weakening area of rain.  The chance for showers will continue through lunchtime, but then dry weather returns for the mid-late afternoon.  It is going to be a windy day, however.  A WIND ADVISORY is in effect for the entire Miami Valley from 10am-7pm today.  Winds will gust 40-45 mph, and downed tree limbs as well as spotty power outages will be possible.  Here’s a look at current wind gusts as of 8am:

Ahead of a cold front, our winds are coming in from the south, so it’s been a very mild morning with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.  But you can see back in Illinois, the winds shift direction a bit closer to the cold front.  This reaches us later today, and with the change, cooler air will filter in.  So by evening, it looks like we’ll dip back into the low 60s, and overnight all the way down to 42-degrees for a chilly start Tuesday morning.  It will also be a cooler afternoon tomorrow, with highs in the lower 60s… but we won’t have the strong wind to deal with, and it looks like we’ll also see a lot of sun.

Then, we expect a warming trend Wednesday into Thursday before the next front/rain chance on Friday!  We hope you have a great week!

Jamie
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I explained in yesterday’s blog how violent the severe weather was in the plains.  Now that it’s light we are able to see just how bad and how many tornadoes touched down Saturday.  Reports are beginning to come in that five people died last night in Oklahoma.  Here’s a link and another link with more of the details.

Here’s a look at some of the tornado reports from Saturday.  Now some of these are duplicate reports (people calling in seeing the same tornado from different locations) but you get the idea that there were several large tornadoes on the ground.

I’m not sure I have seen so many red dots in one location!  I took off the wind and hail reports but here’s another image from the Storm Prediction Center.

One of our own meteorologists Brandon Redmond was in the thick of things yesterday.  He and his SWAT (Severe Weather Alert Team) team was in Kansas and was able to see several tornadoes touch the ground.  Here are a few photos.

Brandon’s team decided to get into a safe position on a storm exiting Oklahoma and heading toward Wichita.   They lost radar data and facing poor road connections they ended up INSIDE the tornado.  While driving they saw debris starting to circle their vehicle and slammed on the breaks.  They covered their heads and had to ride out the storm.  Brandon told the car was lifted a little and they sustained minor damage to the windshield.  Luckily no one was hurt.  He mentioned he didn’t want to be in the heart of the storm and wanted to get on the safe side of the storm to see if they could view the tornado.  Instead poor road networks and no radar data left him stuck and blind.  He and his team have learned from this experience and are going to take precautions the next time they are out chasing at night.

A camera mounted on top of the vehicle captured the terrifying moments.  As soon as our newscast is over and the video is on our website I will share the link.

One thing I did hear from last night’s tornado event.  Some of the OUTDOOR warning sirens weren’t going off because power was out.  So again I’ll preach – you need a NOAA weather radio and make sure there are batteries in it.  It’s a great idea to have several ways to get warnings in case the power goes out.

More severe weather is expected today.  I am hoping we don’t have more deaths and that everyone heeds the warnings.

Tara
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The big weather story here in the Miami Valley has been the much needed rain but farther west a large tornado outbreak is in progress.  Our own Brandon Redmond is chasing with SWAT (Severe Weather Alert Team)  Here’s a LINK to the live video feed.

First our weather:   Today we had heavy downpours and lots of lightning.  I was also amazed at how loud and long some of the thunder lasted.  Our weathercheckers around the Miami Valley picked up anywhere from a half to more than an inch of rain.

Showers wind down tonight and we’re in store for a nice Sunday.  Our risk of severe weather is low and I am keeping our Severe Weather Index in the low category.

However the same system that brought us the rain is producing severe weather in the plains.  Here’s a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) rare HIGH risk of severe weather.  (I’m not sure I’ve seen a high risk this large before)

Several tornado watches have been issued – but these watches are not ordinary tornado watches.  SPC has issued several PDS or Particularly Dangerous Situation watches.  Here’s a look at the PDS watches in effect in yellow – the small red boxes are tornado warnings.  **This is as of 8pm eastern**

Meteorologist Brandon Redmond has been out with SWAT chasing these storms in Kansas.  His team has already captured a funnel cloud and are on another storm right now.  You can check out the live feed by clicking here.  (Be aware – due to data connection issues there may be a delay – sometimes there are dead spots on the country roads.

The large area of low pressure is going to move eastward – as it does a warm front is going to lift north of us – this means lots of Sunday, warm and breezy winds for the Miami Valley.  Here’s what it looks like on Future Trac.

The nice conditions only last for one day because the front moves through Monday meaning there’s a chance for rain.

The threat of rain looks like it’s just going to be for the first half of the day.  Doesn’t look like we’ll see severe weather on Monday.  It appears all of the stronger storms will stay well west of us.

Tara
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