High pressure is with us for one more day, bringing a frosty morning to the Miami Valley as temperatures have dropped into the mid-upper 30s this morning.  A FROST ADVISORY continues for the eastern counties through 9am.

Lots of sunshine will have temperatures climbing quickly again today.  We’re going to see highs in the mid-60s… so a little warmer than yesterday, and finally back above normal.  You may notice high clouds from time to time, but they should be thin enough to call it a mostly sunny day.  This evening and overnight, the clouds will thicken as a warm front and upper level energy moves in.  Early Saturday morning, rain will be just off to our west:

Showers and even a few thunderstorms will spread in through the morning hours, and continue on and off through the middle part of the afternoon.  We will dry out Saturday late-day/evening… and do expect quiet conditions overnight.  There is just a slight rain chance across the north on Sunday, otherwise dry weather returns for the second half of the weekend.  Highs will be in the 70s both days, but it will be quite windy!  So enjoy the warmth, but hold onto your hat!

Something everyone will be watching this weekend is a likely severe weather and tornado outbreak across the central part of the country.  Yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center had parts of Kansas & Oklahoma in the Moderate Risk, if you remember… and today they’ve bumped it to High Risk:

This is extremely rare for them to issue a High Risk for Day 2.  Severe weather parameters are looking scary for this region, especially Saturday afternoon and evening.  The SPC is using strong wording saying there is potential for a “HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.”  Hopefully this advance notice will make people living there to take action.

Jamie
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It’s another cold morning, as temperatures are dropping to near-freezing values again.  This morning, there’s also frost forming… as winds are lighter today, with high pressure settling in right over us.  Subsidence today–sinking air under the high–will provide us with a very sunny afternoon!  Bright and warming will be the rule through the end of the week.  Today’s highs will be pretty close to normal (60-degrees)… and on Friday, we’ll go even higher–into the mid-60s.

By Friday night, a warm front will approach the Miami Valley… and that will bring in some warmer air for the weekend.  It’s also going to bring in showers and thunderstorms!

The above image is our in-house computer model showing Saturday morning.  At least the first half of Saturday looks messy here, but we may get some breaks going into the afternoon.  Something scary for Saturday, however, is the risk for severe weather out in The Plains:

The SPC has already put parts of Kansas and Oklahoma in a MODERATE RISK for severe storms.  This could be a significant tornado/severe hail outbreak over the central part of the country.  We will be watching this closely as we head into the weekend.

Back home, on Sunday, the warm front will be north of us.  Depending on where it ends up… it could end up being a pretty dry and warm day here!  Right now we’ve kept a 30% chance of rain in the forecast, and it looks like the best shot will be in the northern counties.  We’ll keep you posted of changes to the weekend forecast on Channel 2!  Stay tuned!

Jamie
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It’s a cold morning out there!  The official temperature for Dayton dropped down to 28 degrees this morning… we haven’t been in the 20s since mid-March!  So it’s the coldest we’ve been in about a month… amazing.  A FREEZE WARNING continues through 9am.  At that time, it will be safe to uncover the plants, and bring the potted plants out to get some sunshine.  But don’t wash the sheets just yet!  We have another FREEZE WARNING tonight into early Thursday morning.  Again, we’ll drop into the upper 20s/low 30s.

High pressure building south out of Canada is to blame for the colder readings.  This morning, the high is still northwest of us, and we have a pretty good breeze… which is helping prevent a widespread frost.  BUT the high will settle right over us by Thursday morning, so the threat of frost will be greater with lighter winds:

The high then will provide mostly sunny skies Thursday afternoon, and slightly warmer temperatures.  We’ll climb back into the upper 50s–which is still below normal, but warmer than we have been!  As the highs continues to head east, our winds become more southerly, and that means even warmer readings for Friday and the weekend.  Mid 60s and dry on Friday… with 70s for Saturday and Sunday… but also a good chance of rain.  Parts of the region could see some good soaking rain out of this event through Tuesday of next week.  The exact placement of the heaviest rain is still in question, but this run of the GFS could give you an idea:

That has parts of the Miami Valley over an inch.  We’ll continue to watch the trends and keep you posted!

Jamie
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The next couple days will start with near-freezing temperatures, and feature cool–if not slightly chilly–afternoons.  Today, we start with sunshine and upper 30s… but the afternoon will NOT be as warm as the past several days.  This will be our coolest day of the week!  Clouds increase this afternoon… and the winds pick up, too.  It might be a little gusty at times, with our high temps getting stuck in the upper 40s.  A rare below-normal day this season.   We can’t rule out a stray sprinkle with the cloud cover late today and tonight, but will see mostly dry weather.

Despite the cloud cover tonight, we’re still expecting to drop close to freezing in this colder airmass.  So a FREEZE WATCH stands through Wednesday morning.  Bring in the plants you can… protect what you can’t:

Morning clouds will break up a bit Wednesday afternoon.  It will still be a cool, below-normal day with highs in the lower 50s.  We’ll likely be back down at or below freezing on Thursday morning, but THEN a warming trend for the end of the week and the weekend.  Here’s the high temperature trend for the next several days:

There will be even more warming over the weekend, but it comes along with the increased chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It’s still a ways out, so timing is in question… be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for the latest!

Have a great day!
Jamie
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What an amazing Easter weekend!  I hope you had a great holiday & that you also got to enjoy some of the beautiful weather we had.  I got to go for a rare solo run on Saturday afternoon.  I usually take one or both of my kids in the jogging stroller, but on Saturday my little one was napping & my oldest wanted to stay home and play on the swing set.  It was one of those magical runs where the weather was great, I felt even better… and therefore ran an extra mile.  I probably could have gone even farther, but weekends are so busy… and we had eggs to color!    Saturday’s high was 65… and Sunday made it up to 63.  It definitely felt a little cooler on Easter, with that brisk wind.  I did another run Sunday–this time taking along my daughter in the jogger.  We had quite a bit of wind resistance!

Today will be pretty similar to Sunday, weather-wise:  highs in the low 60s, with an afternoon breeze.  BUT we won’t have the crystal clear blue sky we enjoyed over the weekend.  As a weak disturbance moves through, we’ll see more cloud cover, and we even have the chance of a spotty shower:

The lower levels are very dry right now–morning dew points are in the 20s.  So what we’re seeing on Live Doppler 2X above is probably not making it to the ground at this point.  We still can’t rule out a shower or two, with the disturbance coming through this afternoon.  Behind this feature, cold air moves in again.  Tonight’s low will drop into the mid-30s… but a breeze should help prevent a widespread frost.  Breezy and chilly conditions prevail Tuesday afternoon, as we’ll likely be stuck in the upper 40s with a few sprinkles around.  Then, Tuesday night… we will drop near freezing again:

So it will be another morning to protect the plants!  Then, a warming trend looks to set up as we head towards the weekend.  We could be back in the 70s again, but it does look to come along with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms… so stay tuned!

Jamie
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In yesterday’s blog  I talked about the importance of NOAA weather radios.  They are a life saving tool.  But what do you do when there is a tornado warning in effect for your area?

Know where you are
I know this may sound silly but you would be surprised how many people do not know the county they live in.  It’s a great idea to get out a map or use one online to find out what county you live in and whether you’re in the middle, northwest or southwest part of the county.  Also learn the towns that are around you.  I remember getting a phone call from a youth director at my church.  She was taking a group of middle school students on a youth ministry trip.  There was severe weather possible that afternoon.  I told her while she was driving to watch the road signs and remember what county she just left and the county she was in along with remembering what cities she just passed.  The good news is the severe weather stayed to the west of her and the weekend trip was a great experience for the kids.  Bottom line is she was prepared.

Know where to go
Schools do a great job of having practice tornado drills.  The alarm goes off and kids know where to go and what to do.  Just the other day I spoke at Friendship Village Retirement/Assisted Living Facility about tornado drills.  They had one that morning.  I was so excited to see a facility like this take severe weather seriously.  They had all of their staff help each resident get to their safe spot.   So I’ll pose this question to you – have you practiced a tornado drill at work or home?  Do you know where to go?  I once had a meteorologist tell me he did a tornado drill with his family.  It was a good thing he did because they found out not all of them could fit in the bathroom (they didn’t have a basement).   Because they practiced this drill they found out they needed to have a couple kids go with  mom in the bathroom and a couple go with dad in the hall closet.  Had this been a real tornado warning it would’ve been a chaotic moment trying to figure out what to do next.  So I encourage all of you to practice a drill at home or at work.  Know where you would go if severe weather occurs.

Best places
The best place during a tornado warning no doubt is in the middle of the basement underneath a staircase.  However many homes don’t have basements.  The rule of thumb is to put as many walls between you as possible.  An interior room like a bathroom or closet with no windows is acceptable.  I can’t stress this enough – if you live in a mobile home you have to get out and get some place safer.  These types of homes are not sturdy enough to withstand the winds a tornado packs.  Find out from the mobile home park if there is a tornado shelter or if they have a common space with a basement.

I learned at the severe storms conference I attended that most buildings/homes are built to withstand 90 mph winds.  (In hurricane zones these parameters are different) Keep in mind many tornadoes exceed 90mph.   Tim Marshall who is a meteorologist and engineer spoke about building construction.  I found out that many buildings are made with CMU’s or concrete masonry units.  These are those cinder blocks – some of them are strongly reinforced with re-bars while others are not.  When they are reinforced with re-bars there are extra anchors to support stronger winds.  I saw photos of a high school in Joplin where the concrete walls fell right into the hallways.  Luckily school was not in session.

I also heard from a meteorologist who survived a tornado last year in Huntsville, AL.  Gary Dobbs had been working all morning long at WAAY and went home during severe weather coverage to get some sleep that afternoon before he had to return dark and early the next morning.  He came home and it wasn’t too long before a tornado warning was issued for his town.  He got on the phone and did a live report from the porch of his house.  He saw the tornado coming straight for him, he ended his live report and headed for his storm shelter.  The twister was moving fast and he didn’t make it to the shelter.  He stopped short and went into an interior room.  He heard the roaring winds and at one point was lifted off the ground.  A few minutes later he realized he was under debris – a dryer had fallen on top of him and broke a few of his ribs.  He crawled out from under the debris and tried to get to his storm shelter.  A group of workers from a nearby restaurant had taken refuge there.  They were ok.  Gary was safe, and so where these workers.  Here’s the story he shared after the storm.

After listening to both of these talks there was some discussion at the conference about storm shelters.  Should people build them?  Are they worth it?  I’m not sure I have a great answer for that.  I would hope if you live in a tornado prone area you would invest in one – like Gary Dobbs did.  However does everyone need one?  I don’t know the answer to that.  They can cost almost two thousand dollars to install.  Should we get these or build structures better?  It’s a discussion I think we need to have in the future.

In the meantime I encourage all of you to be aware of severe weather.  Get a NOAA weather radio, sign up for for WDTN Text alerts, download the WDTN news app, follow Brian, Jamie and me on Twitter, or on Facebook.  The more ways you have to get vital information the better.

Stay safe
Tara
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I recently attended a severe storms conference in Des Moines put on by the Central Iowa National Weather Association.  I was so excited to hear about new technology, severe weather case studies and just be around other “weather geeks.”

Some of the presentations were heavy with meteorological jargon while others shared first hand experience of surviving a tornado and dealing with its aftermath.

Jeff Piotrowski is a storm chaser with TwisterChasers.com He has been chasing for more than 30 years but all that knowledge couldn’t have prepared him for what he was about to see on May 22, 2011 in Joplin, MO.  He was chasing and calling back vital information while the EF-5 ripped through the city.  Instead of continuing to chase the tornado, or look at the footage he just captured he stopped and turned around.  Driving down a battered street Jeff got out of his truck and started helping those who were crying for help.  His wife used his truck to pull large trees and debris from the road so emergency personnel could get through the street.  They both spent three and a half hours helping people.  They saw death and destruction but also saw good Samaritans using pick up trucks full of injured people as ambulances.  After his presentation everyone there gave him a well deserving standing ovation.

Jeff’s experience reminds me to share a point with you.  Tornadoes are dangerous and deadly.  They’re not to be taken lightly.  I remember seeing video of some teenagers throwing a Frisbee into a tornado…that’s not smart.  Any object can be deadly if a tornado with 175mph winds is picking it up.  I also get annoyed when storm chasers yell and cheer when a tornado touches down.  So you’re excited a strong tornado is ripping away people’s lives and property?  As a meteorologist I understand seeing the force of nature come together and create a tornado is intriguing, I also understand these chasers provide sometimes life-saving ground truth reports and not to mention collect data that can be studied for further events.  However it’s not something to cheer about.  You can be in awe of a tornado like I am.  Maybe I feel this way because in June of 2010 I met a man who was on the phone with his daughter when she took a wrong turn and drove straight into a tornado.  It was late at night and she couldn’t see the twister – he tried to guide her to safety but instead she was killed.  Seeing the look in his eyes that next morning made me realize the pain many people feel after a tornado touches down.

So how can you be prepared when severe weather strikes?  I can’t stress this enough – get a NOAA weather radio.  It’s like a smoke detector for severe weather.  You have a smoke alarm in your house – why don’t you have one of these?  A TV isn’t going to suddenly pop on with your favorite meteorologists telling you there’s a tornado heading your way and you need to take cover.  Outdoor sirens aren’t going to work either.  They are to alert people who are OUTDOORS that there is severe weather.   If you have an app on your smart phone that’s great.  The more sources you have to alert you of severe weather the better.  But if an app isn’t going to wake you up or alert you I highly recommend you get a NOAA weather radio.  They can be found at several electronic stores and cost about $30.  You will have to buy a batteries and program it to only sound when a warning has been issued for your location.  Here’s a list of the codes you will use to program it – just click on the state you live in.  There are several online guides to help you program them.  Also if you ask someone at the electronic store may be able to help you as well.

Weather radios should be as common as a TV or smoke detector in everyone’s home.  I have one and I encourage you to get one as well.  It’s a small cost that could potentially save your life someday.

Tara
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High pressure is building into the Miami Valley, and it’s bringing clear skies to the region.  This has aided in our morning temperatures dipping to freezing!  A FREEZE WARNING continues through 9am, when we’ll finally climb out of the lower 30s.  We actually have a few mornings over the next week where we’ll likely be flirting with freezing temperatures… but there is a small warm-up in there… and it’s nicely coming along for the holiday weekend!  Cold mornings both today and Saturday will be followed by nice, sunny afternoons.  Highs today will be in the upper 50s–right around normal for this time of year.  Saturday we’ll climb into the mid-60s… certainly a nice way to start the weekend!  Things change a bit Sunday, as a cold front drops in.  There is a slight chance of a spotty morning shower, but the rest of the day looks dry, breezy and mild:

Beyond Easter, next week does look cooler, with temperatures running a little below normal.  It will start unsettled as the cold air spills in, with a chance of showers Monday… and possibly even lingering into Tuesday morning.  But dry conditions are expected mid-week, with a couple more freezing mornings in there.

I hope you all have a wonderful holiday weekend!
Jamie
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Yesterday’s frontal boundary is still sitting just south of the Ohio river this morning, and there’s a pretty big temperature spread in the region:

But our northeast flow will continue today, which means cooler and drier air here in the Miami Valley.  We’re starting with clouds this morning, and even an area of rain along the front, south:

The extreme northern edge of this rain may creep into southern Butler, Warren or Clinton counties this morning… but there’s just a slight (20%) chance of that happening.  Otherwise, high pressure building in from the north will bring the return of sunshine to the region this afternoon.  And while Cincinnati may see a little rain early on, things will dry out there, too, by the time the Reds take the field for Opening Day:

Closer to home, it will be a bit cooler–but also dry at Fifth-Third Field… first pitch 7pm:

Tonight, with the colder airmass in place… light winds and clear skies will aid in temperatures dropping to freezing.  A FREEZE WATCH is in effect for all of the Miami Valley late tonight into early Friday morning.  Growers & gardeners be warned!  It actually looks like we’ll have  quite a few mornings where we’re flirting with freezing over the next week or so.  Don’t put away the sheets just yet

Right now, a slight warm-up is in the works for the holiday weekend.  Sunshine will prevail on Saturday, with a slight chance of a few spotty showers early on Easter.  The best chance will be across the northern counties, and it will NOT rain all day.  But it WILL turn cooler again for next week.  Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to get near 50 degrees.  FINALLY seeing some below-normal temperatures!!

Jamie
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A front moved through the Miami Valley, and now sits to our south:

A few waves of low pressure have been riding along that front, and this energy brought some early morning thunderstorms to the area.  We had some very heavy rain with some of the cells, and even a little pea-sized hail reported.  The thunder was loud, and it may have gotten you up a little earlier than normal today, even if you didn’t get any actual rain.  Those that did see the heavier downpours, had some early day flooding concerns, as Flood Advisories went up for parts of Warren, Clinton and Greene Counties.  Here are some Doppler estimated rainfall totals:

We can’t rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm through lunchtime–especially across the southern counties.  But the trend will be to dry out as we head through the afternoon.  The clouds will also thin out, from north to south.  Even though we’ll see sun, cooler air is building in for the rest of the week… so highs this afternoon will only get into the lower 60s.

We have a few potentially frosty/freezing mornings in our future, too:

If you’ve planted, you’ll want to pay close attention to temperatures–especially Friday morning, when we’re most likely to dip near freezing.  Highs both Thursday and Friday will climb into the 50s, and Dayton Dragons Opening Day looks to be chilly, but dry!  First pitch is at 7pm:

We’ll climb back in the 60s for the holiday weekend.  Next chance of rain is–bad timing–Sunday morning.  We’ll keep you posted.

Jamie
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A warm front sits just south of the Miami Valley this morning, as you can see on the surface map:

A batch of clouds has developed ahead of the front, so we’re off to a grey start.  The clouds will break this afternoon, and the warmer airmass on the other side of the front also moves in, as the front lifts north.  We can’t rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm with this feature, but any activity will be isolated… and most locations will likely not see rain during the daylight hours today.  Once we get into the warmer airmass, we’ll see temperatures soar this afternoon, with a high near 76-degrees.  Well above the normal of 57… but not quite a record (83, in 1883).  The better chance of rain comes tonight, as an area of low pressure moves in with a cold front:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms look pretty likely during this timeframe, and some of them could be on the strong side.  The SPC has the entire Miami Valley in an Elevated Risk for severe weather:

As always, we will keep an eye on it and let you know if we get any watches or warnings on Channel 2, and online at www.wdtn.com.  Behind this system, we will cool off for the second half of the week, with low 60s Wednesday… upper 50s Thursday… and some frost possible by Friday morning.

Enjoy today!
Jamie
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We knew it was coming, and now it is official!  Dayton has experienced the WARMEST March on record!  Here are the final stats, as we were 13.2-degrees above normal:

Columbus and Cincinnati also had their warmest March on record, as did much of the region.  The month was dominated by a large upper level ridge that gave us five days in a row of record high temperatures, and even a few record high LOW temperatures.  Amazing warmth… as we started Spring feeling much more like Summer!  April also started above-normal, as Sunday’s high temp climbed up to 73-degrees (the normal high is 56).

Yesterday evening, we had a few thunderstorms roll through the Miami Valley,  and a handful of warnings to go along with them.  Preble, Butler and Warren Counties took the brunt of these storms.  We’ve even had a few isolated showers here and there this morning, but most locations will stay dry today.  We’ll enjoy sunshine, as high pressure builds in behind the front:

This high is also bringing northerly winds, and slightly cooler temperatures.  Highs will range from the lower 60s north to the mid-upper 60s in the southern counties.  On Tuesday, the front will lift back north as a warm front, and that warm air will head right back into the Miami Valley!  Highs will climb into the upper 70s Tuesday afternoon, so it will feel much more summerlike!  We can’t rule out a spotty morning shower, but a better chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms comes Tuesday evening/overnight as the whole system swings through:

Then, we’ll be a bit cooler for the second half of the week!  Enjoy!

Jamie
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