Yesterday afternoon was quite delightful, as we reached the forecast high of 66-degrees right on the dot!  We did see some fair weather cumulus clouds develop in the afternoon, as expected, but still enjoyed plenty of sunshine.  If you liked yesterday’s weather… you will be happy about today as well!  We’re expecting even LESS cloud cover, and even WARMER temperatures.  Highs will make it into the lower 70s—aaaaahhhhh!  I’m sure I have mentioned before that 72-degrees is my *ideal* temperature… and with sunshine and light winds, I’m pretty much calling this a perfect day   I’m so excited to be doing a Walk-a-Thon at John F. Kennedy Elementary in Kettering today.  Not only will I get to visit with awesome students and enjoy a great day… but this is my former elementary school!  I always love going back and remembering the good old days

More exercise on Saturday morning, with the Girls on the Run 5K I will be participating in at Welcome Stadium!  What a great program that is… and, yes, we’ll enjoy more fabulous weather for the event.  Mostly sunny skies Saturday morning, with temps starting near 50-degrees… and climbing up into the mid-70s.  Clouds do increase a bit as the day goes on, but we will stay dry.

The next chance of rain comes–unfortunately–on Mother’s Day.  Right now, the morning looks dry, but by afternoon we will be dodging scattered showers and thunderstorms.  I don’t expect a wash-out of a day… and it will still be nice temperature-wise:

Rain chances may linger into early next week, but that appears to be it for awhile.  A warming trend is showing up for the week ahead, too.

Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms & I hope you enjoy the beautiful weather! <3
Jamie
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As expected, spotty showers popped up yesterday as a disturbance moved through the region during peak-heating.  I saw lots of dark clouds in the area, but just a little rain at my location.  The combination of showers & some sun made for a pretty sight, too–rainbows!  Here is just one of the photos we received yesterday:

If you ever have weather pics to share, you can email them to reportit@wdtn.com or tag me in a Twitter post (@wdtn_jamie).

It’s a chilly start to this Thursday as temperatures have dropped into the 40s this morning, with light winds and clear skies:

High pressure builds in for a few days, and this will keep things quiet… and will bring us some really nice afternoons!  Today’s high will reach the mid-60s… and then as the high shifts just east of us Friday, we’ll see a bit of a warm up:

Friday afternoon will be near-perfect with sunshine and highs in the lower 70s!  I sense some will decide to take a long weekend.    Saturday will be sunny for the first part of the day, with an increase in high clouds later on… and even warmer afternoon highs, in the mid-70s.  Unfortunately, a front drops in on Mother’s Day, and we do have a pretty good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It doesn’t look like a wash-out at this point… but expect at least some rain.  Showers may linger into early next week, but there is still some question as to what extent.  Stay tuned!

Tomorrow is FRIDAY!!  Woo-hoo!
Jamie
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One cold front came through yesterday, and that brought in the first push of cool air.  Highs climbed up into the lower 70s yesterday afternoon… so long 80s and humidity!  It really was a nice day.  Today, a second cold front will drop in from the north… you can see it up there on the morning surface map:

That will bring a few more weather changes today.  First, it will keep temperatures running cool.  We are starting off a little refreshing this morning, with the 50s and lower dew points… and afternoon highs will remain JUST below normal, as we end up in the upper 60s.  Second, while we’ll start with some sun, we’ll see clouds increase a bit this afternoon.  As the disturbance approaches us, it will be during peak heating hours and it might be enough to kick off a few spotty showers.  The best chance will be along/north of I-70 between the hours of 2 and 7pm, but not everyone will see rain.  Finally, winds will also increase as the disturbance comes through.  Here’s the Futuretrac forecast for 5pm:

Tonight will be chilly behind this front, as we drop into the lower 40s!  So definitely dress warmer Thursday morning.  High pressure builds in for the rest of the week, and this will bring about lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.  Thursday’s highs will be in the mid-upper 60s, and Friday we’re looking at lower 70s.  We’ll end the week with a bang!… some great weather to enjoy.  Next rain chance is Mother’s Day (don’t forget, it’s Sunday!) but it does not look like a wash-out.  We’ll keep you posted!

Jamie
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A cold front passed through the Miami Valley this morning, and you can actually see it coming through on the temperature map, with the cooler readings behind the front.  That’s where temps are falling into the 50s:

There has been rain along and ahead of the front, too, with some spots picking up an inch or more of rain overnight.  Most of the rain will be out of our area by 9 or 10am… with a dry afternoon in the works.  Even though we started rainy and humid, it will actually turn into a pretty decent day.  The clouds will break a bit, and temperatures (while cooler than yesterday’s 83-degrees)… will still be just above normal.  We should make it into the lower 70s today.

A second cold front comes through tomorrow, bringing in slightly cooler air.  There is just a slight chance of a spotty shower with this front–best chance across the northern/eastern counties.  Futuretrac shows this tomorrow afternoon:

No severe weather is expected for the next few days, but we did have a few warnings with the thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening.  We had some hail reports and isolated wind damage, but mostly escaped the worst of it.  Here are some great shots of the storms as they came through, taken by Storm Team 2 Meteorologist Brandon Redmond… as he was storm chasing in Darke County.

Have a great day!
Jamie
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We’re starting off quiet today, but we will likely get loud later this afternoon and evening, as thunderstorms move in from the west.  This will be our last 80-ish day, ahead of a cold front… and then we’ll cool off for the rest of the week.

Here’s the big picture… thunderstorms with heavy rain are ongoing this morning just northwest of us:

More than 5-6 inches of rain have fallen in parts of northern Illinois and Indiana, and Flood and Flash Flood Warnings are numerous in these areas:

We may see a few spotty showers or even a thunderstorm before lunch (especially across the northern counties)…. but the best chance of strong thunderstorms will be this afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us in an Elevated Risk for severe weather today, with wind being the main threat… followed by hail and the potential for an isolated tornado:

The heavy rain threat is there, too, with our precipitable water values running much higher than normal.  This is the amount of water that would be possible if all the water vapor in the atmosphere above a location is condensed into liquid.   It’s measured in inches… and the higher the value, the more moisture for a thunderstorm to work with… and the higher rainfall rates possible.  Here is the range we are in today:

Some models even have PW values around 2″ today, so the threat of flash flooding will be there for us, too.  We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings on Channel 2 and online at www.wdtn.com.  Rain and thunderstorms will continue on and off tonight, as the front is somewhat a slow mover.  Tomorrow morning we’ll start off with some showers, but we expect to dry out Tuesday afternoon.  The cooler air will hold highs to the lower 70s on Tuesday… and then a secondary push of cool air comes in Wednesday.  This may kick off a stray shower or two (especially across the northern counties)… and it will keep highs for the second half of the week in the mid to upper 60s.

Jamie
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I wrote in yesterday’s blog about last night’s full moon being a “super” one.  I asked for your photos and I want to thank you for sending them to reportit@wdtn.com !  I tried to use as many as I could in yesterday’s newscast but there were just too many great ones to show and not enough time.  So I thought I would post some here on tonight’s blog.  There are so many talented photographers here in the Miami Valley!  I also want to direct you to this link  this is our online photo gallery in which many people uploaded their moon photos.  Please remember if you have a great shot of the nice day or severe weather we would love for you to send us your photo!  Thanks everyone.  Enjoy!

Tom Bricker

Bill Telzerow – near Xenia

Sara Mitchell – Waynesville

Donna Mattison – Kettering

jejphotos – Dayton

Misty Adkins

Nancy Davis – Pleasant Hill

Keith Schondelmyer – Kettering

Angela Woodland – Delaware

Alicia Cain – Brookville

Trish Henry

Dan and Cynthia – near Indian Lake

Bill Brandenburg

Theresa Sutera Cook

James Darren Bush

Jeff Smyth

Camilla Fox Ferguson

Not only is tonight a full moon but it’s also called a “super” moon.  I’m not sure if that means we’re going to hear more people howling at the moon or not but at any rate it should be neat to see.

At 11:34pm eastern time the moon will reach its perigee or will be at its closest point to Earth.  This happens because the moon doesn’t orbit around the Earth in a complete circle but rather an elliptical  shape.  This means there are times it is close or at its perigee or at its apogee which is the farthest point away.  I’ve made a graphic to explain this a little more.

During the perigee the moon appears to be 14% larger and 30% brighter than the other full moons we see throughout the year.  So if you need to get to bed early I would make sure you close the blinds and the drapes to make sure the extra moon light doesn’t keep your room lit up like a Christmas tree.

The moon is responsible for creating our ocean tides.  So one might question “Are the tides higher when the moon is at its perigee?”  I’m so glad you thought of this – Yes the tides are slightly higher however there’s no need to worry about flooding.  According the the National Weather Service tides increase tides by only about one inch.  Whew.

As always I would LOVE to see your photos of the “super moon” you can send them to reportit@wdtn.com and I will try to use them in our newscasts or you can upload them to our website by clicking here.

So if you’ve had a few margarita’s on this Cinco de Mayo and “think” the moon looks bigger and brighter – it’s not the booze it’s really happening.

Tara
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The National Weather Service in Wilmington did a damage survey yesterday, to determine if tornadoes hit the southern Miami Valley Tuesday evening.  Sure enough, three tornadoes did occur with that severe weather event… two of them in our area.  These tornadoes were confirmed just west and north of Lebanon in Warren County.  You can read the full report here:  Tornadoes 5/1/12

We’re starting off muggy and mild again, with morning temperatures in the upper 60s, and dew points in the lower 60s.  Yesterday, we came within three degrees of the record high–(Actual: 84, Record: 87)–and will do the same again this afternoon.  Today’s forecast high is 87°, and the record is 90°.  The a/c is on in my car and house… how about you?

The threat of thunderstorms is low again today, with most of the activity expected well to our north–near a warm front.  We lack forcing, but with heating being strong this afternoon… we do have to keep about a 10% chance of a pop-up shower.  Most spots will remain dry!

A better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms comes late Friday, as a cold front drops in:

We are included in an Elevated Risk for strong storms Friday, too.  We’ll keep an eye on this.  The trend will be to cool off a bit for the weekend, with highs in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.  There could be some showers Saturday, but we’ll see a lot of dry weather, too.  Overall, not a bad weekend!

Jamie
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Strong and severe thunderstorms rocked the Miami Valley yesterday late afternoon through the overnight hours.  We had several reports of funnel clouds, rotating wall clouds, some large hail reports, and even some wind damage reports.  One of the locations that had some damage was in Warren County–particularly near Lebanon.  We were tracking a storm between 5 and 7pm that had a tornado warning, and some rotation on Live Doppler 2X.  Today the National Weather Service will send a survey team out to look at the damage.  Parts of Butler County will also be surveyed.  If you have storm damage, please report it to the National Weather Service at 937-383-0031.  We will keep you posted on this…

Storm totals were impressive from the overnight rain, and many locations picked up around an inch of rainfall… some spots less, some even more:

One spot that had significantly more is southern Warren County.  The Little Miami River is over flood stage at Kings Mills this morning, and minor flooding is occurring.  There is a Flood Warning for this location through evening.  The thunderstorms have moved off to our east this morning, and today is starting out beautiful!  We’re back into some sunshine and morning temperatures are in the 60s, with a warm front sitting to the north of Dayton:

As discussed yesterday, today’s dew points will be into the lower 60s… and it will feel a little humid.  While you’ll likely notice the increase in moisture, it’s still quite tolerable.  Highs climb into the mid 80s both today and tomorrow–today’s record high is 87, and tomorrow’s is 90, so we will be close.  Much of the day will be dry, but as we head into the later afternoon hours, we can’t rule out a few spotty showers and thunderstorms.  Coverage won’t be as great as it was yesterday/overnight… but any thunderstorm that develops will have the potential to be on the strong side–especially in the northern counties.  The Storm Prediction Center has included this part of the Miami Valley in an ELEVATED risk for severe storms:

Of course we’ll keep you posted of any watches or warnings for the area on Channel 2 and online at wdtn.com.

Enjoy the warmth!
Jamie
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We made it up to 80-degrees in many Miami Valley communities yesterday, and it was also a bit on the humid side!  Very summerlike start to the week… and we’ll continue with above-normal temperatures and muggy conditions.  This morning, our dew points are in the upper 50s… with higher readings to our south, closer to a warm front:

Anytime the dew point gets to around 60°, it will start to feel a little muggy.  Anything over a 60° dew point will feel more humid.  And as that front lifts north late today, not only will our rain chances increase… but temperatures and dew points will be on the rise.  Tomorrow, we’ll likely see dew points in the lower 60s here in Dayton… which you’ll probably be able to notice, but it’s still tolerable on the Muggy Meter:

Most of today will be dry, but once again as we get into the late afternoon and evening, the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases as the front moves in:

The chance for severe weather increases this afternoon, too, with the southern half of the viewing area now in an ELEVATED risk for strong storms:

Wind and hail will be the main threats, with isolated tornadoes also possible.  Any thunderstorm will have the potential to produce heavy rain.  We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings on Channel 2 and online at wdtn.com.  While there, download the 2News Ap so you can keep an eye on Live Doppler 2X.  Better yet, sign up for text alerts, and the watches and warnings will get sent straight to your mobile device.  The box with these links is on our homepage… if you scroll down… on the right-hand side.  All of these tools will come in handy, especially if you’re heading down for the Reds/Cubs game!  Severe weather and large venues can be very dangerous, as we’ve seen in the past.  The best chance of rain will occur between 5-10pm…. however, at least slight rain chances continue overnight into early Wednesday.  By Wednesday afternoon we should dry out and that’s when we REALLY heat up!  We’ll make it into the lower 80s… and in the 80s we’ll stay, right through the end of the week.  I’m sorry to say that once again, there is a chance of rain on Saturday.  BUT the good news: it doesn’t look like the chilly rain we’ve seen the past few weeks.  Temps should be in the 60s/70s.

Have a great 2′s day!
Jamie
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