A cold front north of the area this morning will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms as it drops our way.  Early this AM, there is a complex of showers/thunderstorms already ongoing with the front:

Most of this will weaken, but some of these showers are already affecting our northern counties:

Click Live Doppler 2HD for the current image

This is rain chance #1… and will likely be limited to areas north of Dayton.  But another shot comes as the front heads our way and we get some daytime heating this afternoon.  Here is a forecast of what the radar could look like for the drive home around 5pm:

Unfortunately, coverage will be spotty, so not everyone will see the rain.  And these will be passing showers… meaning they will be in and out.  Rainfall totals look minimal, unless you can get under a stronger thunderstorm.  And we may see a few thunderstorms get up to strong limits, with a slight chance for damaging winds and even hail.  The SPC does not officially have us in an Elevated Risk, but they have discussed upgrading us later this morning.  We will keep you posted!

Highs today should make it up around 90… maybe a bit cooler where we see more clouds, which would most likely be across the north.  Tomorrow, behind the front, temperatures will not be AS hot.  Highs will be pleasantly warm, in the mid-80s.  But heat and humidity return for the second half of the week as we’re back up to that 90-degree mark!

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What a great weekend… Saturday we had a nice comfortable 80-degree day, and Sunday–while a bit warmer–was still nice at 85.  As Tara mentioned in her weekend blogs, we have been more than 6-degrees above normal on our temperatures this month.  We still stand at the fourth warmest July on record… and the next couple of days look to be above normal, too… so we will likely stay in the top five.  We’ll have the final results later this week!

Above normal temperatures this week put afternoon highs in the upper 80s to right around 90 each day, and lows will generally be in the upper 60s.  Rain chances aren’t the best at this point.  Today, a disturbance is dropping in from the northwest, and is bringing some cloud cover to the region:

We can’t rule out a spotty sprinkle with this, or even a light shower, but most locations won’t see much today.  There is a slightly better chance of rain on Tuesday as a cold front drops in:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms become more likely in the afternoon hours.  Not everyone will see that rain, however, as coverage will be spotty.  Then we get into a dry stretch for mid-late week, as a slow warming trend begins.  More rain is possible by the time we get to next weekend.  Even though we’ve seen significant rain recently… we could still use more.  Yes, the grass is greening up a bit… but that will be temporary unless we continue to get moisture every few days.

Jamie
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In yesterday’s blog I mentioned July in Dayton has been above normal.  Today I asked the National Weather Service in Wilmington where this July ranks among other July’s.  Here’s what I found.

Right now Dayton is sitting in the fourth slot.  There’s only a few more days in July so we may not make it all the way to number one but there is a chance we may change positions because above average temperatures are expected through the end of the month.

Today we hit 85 and saw lots of sunshine.  We got a great photo from Margaret Powell who was at the Celtic Festival today.

Don’t forget you can always use our reportit feature on our website or the WDTN app to share your photos with us.

I hope you were able to get any of your outdoor activities done today because temperatures and rain chances are on the rise.

A piece of energy moves through the Miami Valley Monday morning bringing a chance for scattered showers.

We should see a few breaks in the clouds by the afternoon but there will still be a chance for a few showers especially south of I-70 in the afternoon. There’s another chance for rain on Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the Miami Valley.  Keep the umbrella handy on Tuesday as well.

Once we get through Tuesday the weather improves.  High pressure builds across the area and that means lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.

Have a great week!
Tara
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Today felt fantastic!  In the sun it felt hot however we had many clouds and that allowed for a little relief.  What I did notice is our high temperature today was below normal.  This is something we haven’t seen too much this July.  I did some digging and found many of July’s high temperatures were not only above normal but well above normal.

Only 5 days have been at or below normal! Of course let’s not forget the two days in the triple digits. I’m sure many of you remember and hope they don’t come back.  Dayton is now 6.7° above normal for the month.  I’m not sure where we rank as far as warmest July’s  – however I do know that 6.7° is a big number.  We’ll have to wait and see how we end up and if this July tops the charts.  Even if it doesn’t this is one summer I’m sure many of us won’t forget.

One other weather event we lacked in July is rain.  Many farmers had to and are still dealing with problems due to a lack of rain.

The first 14 days of July Dayton Int’l Airport had only a drop in the bucket.  However while this is the official reporting station there were several scattered storms that produced significant rain across the  Miami Valley.  We’ve picked up a bit more and are now sitting just below three inches.  Even though we’re making progress Dayton is still almost an inch below normal for the month.

The recent rain has helped out with the Drought Monitor.

The “severe” drought is much smaller than it had been weeks before.  We have a couple chances for rain next week so maybe this will fade even farther.  It’s nice to see the lawns greening up a bit across the area.

I wanted to explain something that was brought up to me by a man today at the Celtic Festival.  He told me he wished all of the meteorologists (not just me apparently) would use humidity rather than dew point to explain how it feels outside.  I tried to explain to him the difference but he was set in his ways we both got frustrated with each other because we wouldn’t budge on our viewpoints.  So I’m taking this opportunity to explain the difference between the two.

We often use a map like this on the air:

Dew point is the measurement of how much moisture is in the air.  The higher the dew point the more humid or “sticky” it feels outside.  A general rule of thumb is if the dew point is 65 or higher it’s going to feel humid.  A dew point of 70 is uncomfortable.  So when you see a map like this and there is no green or just a light shade of green it’s comfortable.

The relative humidity percentage you see and hear is not directly related to the comfort factor you feel.  For example if there is a relative humidity of 90% in the winter time it doesn’t feel humid does it?  Relative humidity gives us an idea how close the air is to saturation.  RH is a ratio between the amount of water in the air and the maximum amount of water possible at a certain temperature.   So we can have a relative humidity of 90% and it doesn’t feel humid. Right now the temperature is 73°, the dew point is 63 and the relative humidity is 71% and it feels comfortable outside.  If the dew point were higher it would feel sticky but if the relative humidity were higher it may not.

Confused?  Ok – here’s the deal.  Basically the dew point is a much better indicator of how uncomfortable it will feel when you step outside.  If it’s above 65 you’ll feel uncomfortable.  However I can’t say that if the relative humidity is above 90% it will feel uncomfortable because that’s not the case.  I can see why some people want the relative humidity because we ask “Is it humid outside?” not “Is it dewy outside?”

I hope this helps a little!
Tara
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If you checked in with us here yesterday morning, or on 2 News Today… you knew the afternoon had potential to be quite stormy.  And sure enough, those thunderstorms developed–right on cue–in the early afternoon hours.  The SPC did a great job picking out the region that would most likely see the strongest storms.  Just compare yesterday’s Severe Weather Outlook map with the actual storm reports map.  As expected, wind damage was the most common report:

We even had some damage at our house!  I was at home, and had just talked with Chief Meteorologist Brian Davis… about the developing storms that were not quite yet severe.  Shortly thereafter, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for southern Montgomery County.  We watched the storm for a bit through the window, but at one point the winds were REALLY starting to howl, and I told the kids we needed to go down into the basement.  As we were making our way down, something in the front yard caught my eye:  a very large tree limb from our Ash tree was down… and on my car!

Here is a wide shot so you can see exactly how big it is:

We believe the tree to be more than 60-years old, and the trunk is about 2.5 feet.  There was a car parked behind mine at the time, as my sister-in-law and niece were over visiting.  Thankfully, the heaviest part of the tree limb landed in between our vehicles!  Branches rested on both cars, however… and as we carefully moved each vehicle, the main break kept making “snapping” sounds… quite unnerving.  Amazingly, both cars were removed with NO visible damage… not even any noticed scratches!  I feel very lucky about that… and about the fact that the branch didn’t hit the house!  Another plus: the power went out.  No, really, that was a plus… because I didn’t have to cook dinner!  LOL.  DP&L responded very fast, and the power was back on within a couple hours.  Thanks to them for doing such a great job!

While we are starting off dry today, there is a chance for  more thunderstorms this afternoon.  A cold front will move in and as we get daytime heating, more thunderstorms will fire up.  The Storm Prediction Center does include our area in an Elevated Risk for severe weather:

Damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours will be possible again today.  Not everyone will see the rain… you may see storms from a distance, or even hear thunder… but not get a drop.  It will be scattered… as it was yesterday.  Check out these totals from the area–almost 2″ in spots, and others not much at all:

The good news is that this is really helping out with the drought conditions.  A lot of things are greening up, and the farmers are loving this rain! 

Tonight, any thunderstorms come to an end, and the weekend looks great!  Lower humidity, with highs in the mid-80s.  I hope you enjoy it!  If you’re looking for something fun to do, head on down to the Celtic Festival at Riverscape Metropark in downtown Dayton!  The 2 News tent will be located on St. Clair St. and many of us from the station will be down there to announce entertainment acts… meet & greet… and give away cool 2 News stuff.  Come say hello!  Besides a few passing t’storms this evening… the weather looks great!

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The heat and humidity remain in place across the region, and today looks to be even hotter than yesterday.  We’ll see highs climb into the mid-upper 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s.  That means the heat index–or “feels like” temperature– will be in the lower 100s.  The southwest winds will stay up a bit, so at least there will be a breeze.  An EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING is in effect for Montgomery County, with the rest of the area under a HEAT ADVISORY through this evening.

BUT the hot and humid air will act as fuel for thunderstorms that will affect the area this afternoon and evening.  An extremely unstable atmosphere sits in place as a cold front heads our way.  The SPC has included the entire Miami Valley in a  MODERATE RISK for severe storms:

Damaging winds will be the main threat today, and we could see several rounds of thunderstorms that do significant wind damage to the region.  We can’t rule out some hail in the stronger storms, and an isolated tornado or two–entirely possible as well.  It looks to be a busy weather day for sure, so be sure this is not the last forecast you see.  We will update the blog as the day goes on and we get a better feel for timing, location and intensity.

Right now, the front is sitting back in Illinois, with ongoing showers/thunderstorms along it:

You can see on Live Doppler 2HD this morning, an outflow boundary is visible from those storms:

This is from the cooler air those thunderstorms put out… and can be the focal point for new development.  Right now, a few thunderstorms have developed on the southern side of this line… we may see something in our area yet… but it won’t be the “main show” so to speak.  That will come later today, so be sure to check back with us.  Tools to have handy today:

Report It: Upload pictures and send us storm information

2 News App: On your smartphone, tablet… you can also upload storm reports and pictures by using the “Report It” feature on the menu screen  Also keep tabs on the blog, changing forecast and Live Doppler 2HD

Text Alerts:  Get notified on your mobile device when we get a watch or warning issued for your county.  You can pick the counties you are alerted for, so you won’t get any texts that don’t pertain to you.

Keep an eye to the sky, and stay connected!
Jamie
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Strong thunderstorms and much needed rain affected the area yesterday during the mid-late morning hours.  We had numerous wind damage reports as a line of thunderstorms moved through.  But we also had some great rainfall totals… take a look:

There are many happy farmers out there this morning, and the grass is already looking greener!  It also feels good as you head out this morning!  As I discussed yesterday, the front that came through is now sitting to our south.  Areas close to the front are warmer… and on the south side of that front are QUITE warm:

Our dew points have also dropped, with very comfortable readings in the upper 50s this morning.  But that will NOT be the case later this afternoon, as that warm front moves back north and through our area.  Dew points will climb into the 60s… and into the lower 70s.  Oppressive!  With highs in the low-mid 90s, our heat index values will be up near 100.  For this reason, parts of the Miami Valley are under a HEAT ADVISORY today:

As that warm front moves in, a spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible.  And even when we get on the other side of the front, we can’t rule out a pop-up thunderstorm in the hot and humid airmass.  The best chance for this will be southwest of Dayton.  Then, on Thursday we will BAKE, as temperatures climb into the mid-upper 90s, with heat index values potentially over 100-degrees.  A cold front heads our way, and while most of the day will be dry and breezy… we have the chance for scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening.  Some of these could be strong, and we do have an elevated risk for severe weather:

Stay with 2 News tomorrow for more on the potential for developing severe weather.
Jamie
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We are starting off with rain in the Miami Valley this morning!  Even if you’re not seeing rain right now, take along the umbrella.  Most spots will see a little something today… and a few locations will see more than a little something.   You can always track the activity on Live Doppler 2HD… here is the 7:30am image:

You can click the radar for the current LIVE image

We have a cold front north of us that will drop into the area today.  After these morning thunderstorms move out, we will likely have a break in the activity as we head into the early afternoon… with more development possible later in the afternoon and evening.  It will be another humid and hot day ahead of that front, too.  Here is Futuretrac’s forecast for the afternoon drive home:

Any thunderstorm that develops will have the potential to become strong to severe today, and we are in an Elevated Risk for severe weather.  By tonight, the cold front will be just south of the area.  This will bring about a wind-shift… and with a northerly wind tonight it will be a lot cooler, with lows in the upper 60s.  BUT the front then heads north again on Wednesday, and we’ll heat right back up into the lower 90s… again with that chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms:

Expect mid-90s with lots of dry weather on Thursday, then by evening a cold front will approach… bringing another shot of rain.  This will all be followed by cooler and less humid air for the upcoming weekend.

Jamie
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Over the weekend we had some REALLY nice mornings, followed by warm–maybe hot–afternoons.  The humidity is now back, and the heat will stick, too.  All week long, high temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 90s, with dew points in the upper 60s.  There is a rather large dome of extreme heat across the central part of the country, and you can see the heat advisories & warnings in place:

Here in the Miami Valley, we are right on the edge of this… so we won’t get the worst of it, thankfully.  Another plus in our forecast:  the chance of rain.  Each day, we have the potential to see scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area.  Notice the word scattered.  It will not rain everywhere at the same time… and a lot of cities won’t see a drop.  But the potential is there for rain each day.  Right now it looks like a 30-40% chance each day through Friday.  Along with this, comes an Elevated risk for severe storms–mainly in the afternoon hours–both today and Tuesday.  Here is today’s Severe Weather Outlook:

There are some signs of slightly cooler air for next weekend, but it’s still a long way off and things can change.  We will keep you posted!

I am starting to get back into the swing of things to some longer runs in my training for the Air Force Half Marathon.  Over the weekend, I met up with a running group from Troy–Team Grace.  The plan was to run seven miles… and they picked a very hilly course: around the University of Dayton and Woodland Cemetery!  The slow incline up Irving was tough at the start, but it was nothing compared to actually running those hills in Woodland… KILLER!!  I think pushing both kids in the jogging stroller has been good training for the hills, and I am happy to report that I didn’t get too sore in the days following the workout.  We ended up doing 7.5 miles… it was just so nice.  I really enjoyed running with the group–the adult conversation really helped the run fly by.  Normally I am alone or with two kiddos who don’t know when NOT to ask me questions. (on a hill!)  lol.   Here are some pictures from our run… it was a BEAUTIFUL morning with tons of sun & low humidity:

With members of Team Grace

Mid-run (after a VERY tough hill) overlooking the city of Dayton

Anyone heading out running this week will notice an increase in the humidity from the weekend.  Get ready to really sweat again!  I was planning on a nice recovery run today, but one of the kids is sick again… so I’ll have to hold off.  What is it with these summer illnesses??!!  Ugh.

So, have you seen our new look yet?  2 News is now in HD!!  We are very excited about the clearer picture… new graphics… and new music.  It’s a whole new look and feel to the news!  Of course you will still get the same quality forecasts, along with Live Doppler 2HD!  Check out the new wdtn.com

Have a good one!
Jamie
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This morning, we are still in a very humid airmass, with a cold front off to our north.  Behind this front, LESS HUMID air is in place, as you can see by a significant drop in dew points as you travel into northern Ohio and southern Michigan:

That relief gets here by the late afternoon… and it will feel very nice as we head into the evening hours.  Until that front is through, we continue to see the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The severe weather threat is low today, but heavy rain in any thunderstorm is still a possibility.  After 2 or 3pm, the chance of rain diminishes and we’ll start the weekend on a dry note.

Temperatures will be near-normal on Saturday, with morning readings in the 60s, and highs in the mid-80s.  On Sunday, we start to warm again… and could be up near 90-degrees.  90s are then in the forecast through Tuesday… with an increasing chance of rain by that point.  Next week will not be  a wash-out, but there’s at least the chance of some showers/thunderstorms in our area each day.  We’ll get a better idea of timing as we get closer.

Our farmer friends in Fort Loramie happily report 1.5″ as a storm total.  And they could get more today!  Great news.  On the other side, however, there are those who have missed out on the beneficial rainfall.  See the Doppler estimated storm totals… the southern counties have quite a few dry holes in them:

Our own Mark Allan snapped this picture of the pond at Yankee Trace… you can see just how LOW it is:

So today and next week’s rain will hopefully fill in where we need it!

Be sure to watch 2 News this weekend, as we go HD and debut our new set and look!  We are all very excited about this, and you can get a sneak peek here:

2 NEWS GOES HD THIS WEEKEND

Let us know what you think through one of the social media outlets below!  Have a good one!
Jamie
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Just as we forecast yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours.  We had the elevated risk for severe storms, and had a handful of warnings.  Wind damage was the most common report in our area:

Hail fell in spots, too, but most of it was not up to severe size.  Also, with the high moisture content (it’s no news that it’s been extremely HUMID!)… heavy rain fell in spots, causing some flash flooding.  The official total at the Dayton International Airport was only .05″… so that was one of the lower amounts.  But many farmers had significantly MORE, and were extremely happy.  It’s nice to see that some of the heavier rain fell in parts of the Miami Valley that have been the driest.  Here are some doppler estimates:

Earlier this week, my farmer friends sent me this picture of how DRY the ground was around their corn in Fort Loramie–which is really showing signs of stress:

But they were happy to report .7″ of rain from yesterday’s storms!!  Hooray!  Today will be very similar to how things happened yesterday afternoon.  We can’t rule out a spotty shower or storm this morning–especially  north.  Then, with the front dropping in and daytime heating… scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and hang around through the evening.  Not everyone will see great rainfall amounts… but some spots WILL.  We are also included in an Elevated Risk for severe storms, once again:

Wind will be the main threat, with hail also possible… and of course, heavy rain.  We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings on 2 News… wdtn.com and through Text Alerts.  We would love to see your storm pictures, too… you can use the Report It feature on the 2News App to easily send them right to us!

Jamie
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We’ve seen a few isolated showers and even a couple thunderstorms out there this morning.  I was monitoring my Twitter feed around 5am, and many were tweeting about hearing thunder!  BUT not many saw rain, unfortunately.  A lone thunderstorm did pop up in Montgomery County, and did indeed produce some heavy rainfall… but it fell over SUCH a localized area.  Really the cities of Oakwood and Beavercreek got the best of this one.  Here is what it looked like on Live Doppler 2X:

When it was at peak strength, it was measuring four miles by six miles… so a very small storm.  A better cluster of storms has been moving through Warren County to our south… mainly along/south of I-71.  BUT most have not seen any rain this morning, as it has been very isolated this activity has been.  A better chance of rain will occur this afternoon as a cold front moves in during the heating of the day.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms become more numerous during this time, and will linger into the evening hours.  We do have an Elevated Risk for severe storms:

Even if a storm is not severe, it will still have the chance to produce some very heavy rainfall.  This same pattern will be with us on Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms… some strong to severe.

Some locations will likely pick up some nice rainfall totals out of this–models advertise well over an inch.  BUT as the activity will be scattered, not everyone will cash in on this.  Keep Live Doppler 2X handy so you can see where the heaviest rain is falling over the next two days.

As for temperatures… we at least have two more hot and humid days.  We did break a record high at the Dayton International Airport yesterday, and a couple other regional locations did as well:

Today we won’t be quite as hot, but with a high of 94, and dew points in the lower 70s… our heat index will again be above 100-degrees.  An EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING is in effect for Montgomery County and the rest of the Miami Valley is under a HEAT ADVISORY.  Any shower or thunderstorm will cool things a bit this afternoon, but it will remain quite humid.  Tomorrow will still be hot and humid, with a high near 90… then… FINALLY on Friday, the humidity will drop as we climb to near-normal values in the mid-80s.

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It’s going to be another extremely hot and humid day in the Miami Valley, with temperatures in the mid-90s… and our heat index (or feels like temperature) at or just above 100-degrees.  The entire area is under a HEAT ADVISORY from noon until 8pm today.  With dew points in the lower 70s, the humidity will be way up there:

When it’s that muggy outside, it is hard for our bodies too cool off effectively.  Our natural cooling system (sweating) is being offset by the high moisture content.  Sweat evaporates efficiently when the air is dry… and evaporation is a cooling process.  But high humidity slows this down significantly… so your sweat isn’t evaporating… and that in turn makes you sweat even more.  Sooo this can show you how HYDRATION is so very important in a weather set-up like today.  Drink water, water, water… and make sure the kids are drinking, too, even if they’re not thirsty.

I’ve sort of been laying low on the half-marathon training lately, because I was sick for awhile… and then it turned into a sinus infection, and I didn’t feel like training at ALL.  I am starting to get back into the swing of things, and have been for a few short runs over the past week or so.  Yesterday, I went with both kids in the jogger around 11am… and my goodness… it was already oppressive at that point.  Today will be very similar, so I’m sitting this one out.    During the afternoon yesterday, I received about nine raindrops at my house from this cloud:

A few isolated showers popped up during peak heating.  This may happen again today… but like yesterday, most spots will not see rain.  A better rain chance comes with a cold front dropping in on Wednesday:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely in the afternoon hours.  The front is a slow-mover, too.  So while Wednesday still looks hot and humid, the rain chance will at least linger into Thursday… and possibly even into Friday.  By Friday and Saturday, humidity will come down to more comfortable levels, and highs will be closer to normal… in the mid-80s.  Hang in there!

Jamie
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Over the weekend, some got much needed rain here in the Miami Valley… others did NOT.  Saturday’s rain seemed to fall heaviest in the northern counties, and then down toward the Ohio River.  Sunday’s rain did fill in the central and southern Miami Valley… but as expected, it was pretty hit-and-miss.  Here are some Doppler Estimates from yesterday’s rain:

We drove up to Cleveland for my cousin’s high school graduation party on Saturday.  Most of that drive was dry, but we did hit a shower or two–nothing impressive.  Yesterday, however, on the return trip we hit a great downpour just north of Columbus.  It was SO nice to see rain again!  Once home,  I came into work to do some HD run-throughs on Sunday afternoon.  Carl Nichols was in the Forecast Center working, and we were literally CHEERING watching the radar like a sporting event!  In the end, Carl’s yard won out, picking up a bit more rain than we did at my house   My 4-year-old daughter was here with us, and she was just as bad as we were… constantly running to the back door to look at the rain coming down.  Here’s what made us smile:

Unfortunately, if you missed out on rain over the weekend, you won’t have a good chance at picking up some moisture until at least mid-week.  Rain chances will be very low today and Tuesday (maybe a 10% chance of an isolated shower–best chance south).  The humidity, however, stays up!  With high dew points, it will feel quite uncomfortable out there.  Today, dew points will be in the upper 60s much of the day, and Tuesday we could have values in the lower 70s.  Ugh!  Combine that with temperatures in the mid 90s and it will feel close to 100-degrees.

Late Tuesday, there will be some scattered showers northwest of us along a cold front:

On Wednesday, that cold front will be dropping our way.  It will still be a hot, humid day ahead of this front… but the chance of rain increases.  Once again, *scattered* showers and thunderstorms are forecast.  The chance of rain will continue Wednesday night and even into Thursday.  But we will then notice cooler and less humid air filtering in… and we’ll be much more comfortable as we finish off the week.  We will then see another dry stretch of weather right through the weekend.

Jamie
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Farmers are facing tough times with the lack of rain lately and brown lawns are a common sight across the Miami Valley.  The area has seen hot and dry conditions for most of July and rain is becoming a difficult thing to get.   In July we’ve only had two days where the high temperature was below 90°.  A few days we even hit the triple digit mark.

At Dayton International Airport there has only been one day where we saw measurable rainfall and it wasn’t much.  Looking at the summer as a whole it doesn’t look much better.

The lack of rain is creating a severe drought in many locations.  Most of the Miami Valley is under a moderate drought while the western sections are now under the severe category.  Some are comparing this to the drought of 1988.

So many of you are asking – when will we see rain?  We do have a chance for some showers this weekend.  However I want to stresschance.  If we see any showers popping up this weekend they will be difficult to pinpoint when and where they will pop up.   There won’t be a huge batch of rain that will move in but rather scattered showers on and off throughout the day.  If you have outdoor plans I wouldn’t cancel them but be sure you have your umbrella with you and also have a back up plan just in case one of those showers pop up where you are.

Here’s a look at FutureTrac:

Have a great weekend!
Tara
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We are starting this FRIDAY with dry conditions once again, but rain is finally back in the forecast.  This afternoon and evening will be the most likely times to see scattered showers in the Miami Valley:

But not everyone will even SEE rain today… as the activity will be pretty hit-and-miss.  The good news:  if you don’t get rain today, you will still have a chance over the weekend.  Our pattern will remain warm, humid and unsettled through Sunday.  The day that has the most likelihood of rain is Saturday, and the timing looks most favorable for the afternoon:

As I feared, the trend of LESS rain has continued, and we are looking at a potential rainfall ranging from only .01″ to .5″ across the area, with the highest amounts still expected in the southeast:

So it’s definitely NOT going to be enough to relieve the ongoing drought, which is now up to SEVERE levels in parts of the Miami Valley:

Most of the state of Ohio (78%)  is now under at least a Moderate Drought.  It’s even worse across parts of Indiana, where Extreme Drought conditions have prompted many burn bans–including in Indianapolis.  Fines will be administered to people caught burning there.  If things don’t improve, we will likely see similar bans here in the Miami Valley very soon.  I would actually advise not starting fires of any kind NOW.  Yesterday, a field fire started up in Darke Co and spread quickly… even injuring a few firefighters:  DARKE CO FIELD FIRE

An update on the farms, no surprise they NEED the rain this weekend.  While it doesn’t look like much for many… it is at least something.  Here is more on the state of our local farms:  CROPS RUNNING OUT OF TIME

We would love to hear from YOU during the weekend.  Let us know how much rain you get/don’t get.  Download the 2News App and you will always be connected through the ReportIt feature on the menu.

Jamie
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We’ll do this weather for ONE more day before things change here in the Miami Valley!  A morning in the 60s will be followed by an afternoon with upper 80s/near 90-degree temperatures.  We should see a lot of sun through the first part of the day, with clouds to the south moving in as we head through the afternoon:

It looks like most will stay dry through the daylight hours–although there’s maybe a 10-20% chance for a shower… especially across the southeast.  By tonight, the rain chances increase even more… and they will continue that upward climb as we head into Friday.  Here’s the most likely time for rain in our area:

There is still some question as to how much rain we will see.  This will, of course, depend on where the heaviest bands set up and “train” over the same area.  The moisture will be in place, that seems certain… the issue will be where forcing occurs, as features are not well-defined at this point.  This will likely be a situation where it’s not until the actual event is unfolding that we can nail down an accurate rainfall forecast.  The models are advertising anywhere from .25″ to 1.25″… so we will see.  Right now, it does look like the southern counties will stand the best chance to see the highest rainfall, as the HPC is still indicating.  But notice, the amounts are LESS on the map than they were yesterday.  Not a good way to trend, when you’re in a drought situation:

More tomorrow.

Jamie
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High pressure building down from the north is bringing about a marvelous morning here in the Miami Valley!!  LOW dew points (direct measure of moisture in the air) are making it feel quite comfortable out there:

With the dry atmosphere and lots of sun again today, we will warm into the upper 80s, close to 90.  On Thursday, we will have a few more clouds around, and dew points also start to climb a bit.  Highs will be warm again with near normal readings in the mid 80s.  There is, FINALLY, a chance of rain showing up in the forecast.  Right now, it looks like a few spotty showers/t’storms will be possible late in the day on Thursday:

A better chance of rain is showing up for the Friday through Sunday timeframe.  Exactly how MUCH rain is still in question, but some models are showing a nice soaking.  Here is the HPC’s rain forecast as of this morning:

It’s most likely not going to be as much as we need, but every little bit will help.  As I mentioned yesterday, this drought is really hurting the region’s farmers.  We may soon see this in higher prices for certain products… check out Anthony Kiekow’s report:  FARMERS FEELING THE HEAT

This rain will help some of the fields but not all of them.  The new Drought Monitor will come out tomorrow.  In the meantime, the Wilmington NWS put together this nice comparison to another DRY year– 1988.  DROUGHT 2012 vs. DROUGHT 1988

Jamie
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If you liked yesterday’s weather you will be happy with the forecast for the next few days.  We’ll get to see a lot of sunshine, low humidity, and warm temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.  Rain chances will remain focused to our south, along a stalled frontal boundary:

As we head into the end of the week, some of the moisture will lift back our way as the boundary moves north as a warm front.  A pop-up shower or thunderstorm will be possible late in the day Thursday, and a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday.  It is still looking like a pretty good shot of rain, even continuing into Saturday.  No big temperature swing comes along with the rain, although we’ll probably be a few degrees cooler.

Now for some news from the farm, up in Fort Loramie.  Farmers up that way (and all over the region) are really REALLY hoping we see some significant rain at the end of the week.  This could help some of the corn fields.  Not all of them will do well at this point.  Amy took a drive into Indiana over the weekend, and saw a lot of farms that were even worse off than our local fields.  She’s also done some driving around our area, and says it’s dry all the way down 127 through Darke & Preble Counties.  Amy fears this drought is really going to impact food supply. The new Drought Monitor will come out on Thursday, and it will most likely look even worse for the region.  Although the potential Friday/Saturday rain doesn’t look like a drought buster… it will still help, as we need every little bit we can get.

And to leave you with a happy thought, it was a beautiful morning on the farm.  Here’s a nice sunrise shot from Whispering Pines Farm in Kettering:

Farmer Tom tells me he believes his farm to be the only active farm in Kettering.  They raise chickens and sheep… and grow corn, which they use for feed.  The farm is visible from I-675… you can visit them on Facebook:  WHISPERING PINES FARM

Jamie
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We are finally DONE with the heat wave that plagued the Miami Valley for ELEVEN days straight… here is a recap of where we have been:

As expected, we broke records both Friday and Saturday with those 102-degree readings (previous record for both days was 100).   Saturday was one of the hottest days in the region, some locations actually got above 102… here is a roundup of just how hot it was:

SATURDAY’S HIGHS

It was interesting, on the hourly observations page from the Dayton International Airport, at one point a temperature of 104-degrees was recorded.  But the NWS in Wilmington threw that value out, suspecting excess heat from the Dayton Air Show.  Either way, it was HOT, with heat index values as high as 110.

Now it’s feeling MUCH more comfortable out there, with cooler and less humid air moving in behind a cold front:

This morning, a few showers are showing up on Live Doppler 2x in the southern Miami Valley… closer to that frontal boundary.  But this activity is very localized, and the showers will taper off as we head into the later morning hours.  Dry conditions will persist much of this week, unfortunately, so drought conditions will likely worsen.  The next chance of rain will come at the end of the week, and perhaps linger into the weekend.  The way the models look now is hopeful, but it is still a long way out, and things could change.  Let’s hope they don’t!

Jamie
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