Thunderstorms likely Thursday night

April 17th, 2013 at 8:06 pm by under Weather

We’ve seen an active weather pattern the last few days and it will finally come to an end as a strong cold front moves through tomorrow night.

Today we saw the warm front lift northward.  Most of the northern half of the Miami Valley stayed in the 60′s for the afternoon while the southern and central portions jumped into the lower 70′s.  You can see where the warm front set up – north of it highs were only in the 50′s while south of it temperatures soared into the middle 70′s and even 80′s.

HIGHS TODAY

As of Wednesday evening there are some severe storms firing in northern Illinois and Indiana.  Those are going to lift north of the Miami Valley.  So tonight we’re going to be dry but tomorrow night is a different story.

THU 9 AM

First out ahead of the cold front tomorrow we’ll see VERY windy conditions.  Sustained winds will be near 10-20 mph but wind gusts will reach 30-35 mph.  Here’s a look at one of our computer models is suggesting what the sustained wind speeds will be.

WIND FORECAST

These strong winds will bring warm air northward.  Temperatures tomorrow will soar into the upper 70′s close to 80 degrees.

THU TEMPS

With all of the warm air and energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere thunderstorms are going to flare up to our west.  By the early evening strong thunderstorms will form in northern Illinois and Indiana again.  This time (unlike tonight) they will form a large line and head eastward.

THU 6 PM

Some of the storms within this line will be on the stronger side.  The Storm Prediction Center has the Miami Valley in an elevated risk of severe weather.  Keep in mind – *most* of the day on Thursday will be dry.  This line of storms will move through after 11pm Thursday.

SEVERE WX RISK

The one thing we have to watch is timing.  The line of storms will be moving through after the sun has set and we’ll lose the daytime heating.  On the other hand there is a lot of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Basically we have to watch and see if the storms hang onto their strength as they move eastward or if they will weaken before they get here.

THU 11PM FRI 6 AM

It’s a good idea to make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is plugged in and ready to go.  Meteorologist Jamie Jarosik and I will be watching this closely.  She’ll have the latest computer model trends tomorrow morning on 2News Today.

Be safe!
Tara
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