Another hot and humid day ahead…

July 16th, 2013 at 5:58 am by under Weather

Yesterday’s high in Dayton reached 91-degrees, as expected… and we will be right back up there today.  As discussed in Monday’s blog, we are in a stagnant weather pattern, with a large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft.  So little will change from day-to-day.  Expect another day in the low 90s, with our heat index in the mid-to-upper 90s.  Why no Heat Advisory or Heat Warning for the area?  In order for the National Weather Service to issue one of these, we must reach certain criteria.  Here is a look at what would need to happen:

Criteria

Right now, it looks like the best chance of at least an advisory, would be Thursday or Friday, ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.  Highs may be a couple degrees warmer, and dew points will likely continue to run in the lower 70s.

Rain chances are low through the end of the week.  Today looks dry, with maybe a 10% shot of an isolated shower or thunderstorm… not too likely.  Wednesday through Friday, the chance will increase a bit, but most will still stay dry until the weekend:

RAIN FORECAST

The best chance, as you can see, is with a cold front on Saturday.  The timing of this is still in question, but the best estimate now is morning or afternoon, with drier conditions later in the day and for the evening.  We will keep you posted on changes to this, and the potential for any strong storms as we get closer to the event.  Temperatures and humidity levels will also drop behind this front, with weekend highs in the 80s.

Jamie
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