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Soggy weekend, but things starting to look a little brighter!

Erik Zarnitz — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:35:06 +0000

While we are not officially in Spring just yet, the last few days have really felt like it. Temperatures in the 60s came to an end on Friday as the first thunderstorms of the season moved through. Most locations picked up between .5 to about an inch of rain Friday evening. Then a fairly persistent band of rain stuck around Friday night into Saturday bringing in another period of moderate rain. Even on Sunday scattered showers added to totals bringing storm totals up to 2 inches for many locations. On the left are some of the higher totals sent in by our weather checkers. (more rainfall totals listed below, feel free to add your own) The other image shows the estimated 24 hour rainfall totals as of Saturday evening. Notice the yellow band from just south of Richmond through Preble, Montgomery, Miami, and over towards Sidney and Springfield. While the estimates appear to be a touch on the high side, most of the locations in yellow received close to 2 inches of rain. Areas in green about an inch to an inch and a half, blue areas half an inch to an inch. Even on Sunday night the clouds are still hanging around and with so much moisture in the air it looks as if the drizzle, fog, and mist will only get worse as the night goes on. Some good news, while it may not seem like it, is actually with temperatures. While things may seem raw and cold, it looks as though temperatures will hold above the freezing mark. With this kind of weather and the persistence of the fog, mist, drizzle.. ice could be a big issue… but as of right now it looks as though it will not be a problem for us.

Its always a stuggle to see when a system like this will finally pull out and how long the low level clouds will stick around. By looking at this map it seems as though there is enough cold air aloft and even a few slight precipitation returns (not only in the NAM but the GFS as well) that low statoform clouds should stick around for much of the day. Also, if any sunshine does pop out early… and surface heating will just cause more cloud cover to form. Either way, Monday will not be the nicest. Tuesday looks like a different story as the sun returns, however with light winds out of the north temperatures will be slow to rebound back into the 60s. – Erik Zarnitz

Here are some additional rainfall totals from Friday night through Sunday night. Thanks weather checkers! If you have any additions totals you’d like to add please list them below.

Beavercreek 2.02

Cedarville 1.69

Centerville 2.15

Fairborn 1.45

Greenville 1.73

Kettering 2.3

New Carlisle 1.9

Piqua 1.85

Sidney 1.7

Tipp City 1.8

Sidney 1.7

Tipp City 1.8

Union 1.6

Xenia 1.8

Yellow Springs 2.03

Live Doppler 2x X-Vision, Rainfall totals, and a Mild week!

Erik Zarnitz — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 02:51:11 +0000

Some of you commented on Twitter earlier tonight (My twitter account WDTN_Erik ) and wanted to know a little more about X-Vision, a new tool we use on Live Doppler 2x. Here are two examples of what I’m talking about. The first image shows “normal” radar reflectivity’s to the south and X-Vision to the north. Doesn’t look like very much from this angle. However when you take a look at the next image you can see a 3-D representation of the storm. When you look at a normal radar image there is one level of radar data plotted. Usually the lowest sweep (.05 degrees). Many National Weather Service radars scan multiple levels of the atmosphere. (1,1.5,2 degree ect.) With some new technology we can now display those levels and examine what is going in with in the storm. While these images aren’t all that impressive (which is fine since we are not dealing with powerful storms just yet!) it gives us a good idea of what we are looking at. In a thunderstorm kind of situation we can peel back the layers, exposing a hail core. These 3-D representations can also help us identify updrafts, downdrafts, (B.W.E.R) Bounded Weak Echo Regions, and many other phenomenathat help us to distinguish exactly where the severe weather is most likely happening. Thankfully tonight, no severe weather, but I figured that I could use a little practice with the technology, and the viewers may want to get familiar with it before the big storms roll in!

Now for the some information on todays weather. The system that rolled in on Sunday evening was fairly weak, however it did put down some decent rains. As of 9:30 pm the heaviest rain fell just east of Eaton. Places like Lewisburg and New Lebanon coming in with over a half inch of rain. The good news…. yes, this was RAIN for a change and not snow!! That will also be the trend as we head through the week.

The same system that brings us the clouds, rain, and mild weather by midweek also brings colder air as it moves away. On Thursday the system will gradually move east and regenerate along the eastern seaboard. At that point the coastal low will begin pulling down colder air from the north… So get ready, we could see a few more snowflakes in the forecast by late next weekend!

Set a record in February, but what will March bring?

Erik Zarnitz — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 23:33:05 +0000

February is just about over (just a few hours left!!) and while Dayton didn’t get the record for the snowiest February on record, we did get pretty close. We had 23 inches, enough to put us in second place and also enough to get many in the mood for some sun and warmer temperatures.

Below are the top five snowiest Februaries for Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton.

COLUMBUS:
1. 30.1″ … 2010 (through 02/27)
2. 29.2″ … 1910
3. 24.4″ … 2003
4. 19.6″ … 1914
5. 16.4″ … 1979

CINCINNATI:
1. 26.1″ … 2010 (through 02/27)
2. 21.4″ … 1914
3. 20.6″ … 1910
4. 19.9″ … 1993
5. 18.5″ … 1998

DAYTON:
1. 31.6″ … 1910
2. 23.0″ … 2010 (through 02/27)
3. 21.2″ … 2003
4. 17.5″ … 1979
5. 16.7″ … 1914

While this winter has seemed extremely long with all the snow, overall we do not even place in the top four or top 10. If the winter was to end today we would rank number #20. However we still have March to go, and in your average March we generally pick up 4.8″ inches of snow. So if March is anything like February we may see a record set yet.

Out of all the pictures sent in to WDTN, I think this picture symbolizes what many are thinking. In Kettering this family looks ready to hit the pool, lake, or beach with a lawn chair, beach umbrella and beach ball all set to go. In just another 2 months we will be in April where 60s and 70s are common.

When it comes to forecasts, things are looking a little brighter and warmer down the road. The last image posted in this blog is an overlay of the GFS and the ECMWF (two separate long range computer models). Both show a fairly strong area of High pressure to our southeast, meaning southwesterly winds for us and very good shot at some moderating temperatures by the end of the week. We could even break 50 degrees come next Sunday. The GFS does have something that is a little different however… it has a strong system in the central plains. If that happens we could have a big warm up (50’s perhaps even 60’s) by early next week with heavy rain and a big shot of cold air behind it. Let it begin! The Ups and Downs of temperatures during spring in the Miami Valley… Hey, we cant get too much colder!

Below are the top five snowiest winter seasons for Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton.

COLUMBUS:
1. 67.8″ … 1909-1910
2. 54.1″ … 1977-1978, 1995-1996
4. 49.9″ … 2009-2010 (through 2/27)
5. 48.7″ … 2002-2003

CINCINNATI:
1. 53.9″ … 1977-1978
2. 47.3″ … 1976-1977
3. 46.3″ … 1950-1951
4. 44.6″ … 1995-1996
5. 38.4″ … 2009-2010 (through 2/27)

DAYTON:
1. 62.7″ … 1977-1978
2. 54.8″ … 1950-1951
3. 50.4″ … 1909-1910
4. 45.2″ … 1917-1918
5. 44.8″ … 1963-1964
…
20. 38.0″ … 2009-2010 (through 2/27)

Wow! Rain instead of Snow!!! But for how long?

Erik Zarnitz — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 02:25:11 +0000

Its TRUE!!! Today we hit a high of 42 and one of our weather checkers, Greg down in Centerville, reported a high of 50 degrees this afternoon! While it’s nice to finally be talking about some milder weather, it doesn’t look as though its going to last much more then a day or so.

First, lets just be happy… our latest winter storm is spareing us, however places like the Quad Cities, Chicago, and Detroit will be belted with 3-6 inch snows, but for us… just rain!

The reason is the track. For what seems like the first time this winter the storms track is to our north and west. Low pressure systems have winds that circulate in a counter clockwise direction which means relatively mild air is being pulled in from the east and as the storm approaches that wind may even have more of a southerly component to it leading to even milder readings.

The image to the right is the 12Z NAM weather model and shows the air temperature aloft (in degrees Celsius). I highlighted Ohio in green (It can be a little difficult to see to the untrained eye!). I also highlighted the -3C line. -3C is usually pretty close to the rain / snow line but notice how far off to the north and west it is. That means, rain for us!!!

However while we get wet many other locations will be getting white. Winter Storm warnings are in effect for areas north and west of both Chicago and Detroit which ultimately could delay flights departing from Dayton.

(By the way wdtn.com has a great new way to track your flight here is the link!)

http://www.wdtn.com/subindex/traffic/airport_status

The only down side is that the mild weather will not last. As the storm moves to our north and east it will drag some colder air in behind it. While accumulations will be very light, we will see some some flurries on Tuesday with a better chance of some light snow Wednesday. Temperatures will also drop with highs only in the 20s by Thursday and perhaps Friday too. Just keep in mind Spring is getting close, less then one month away!

And while Spring may be getting closer, some are still enjoying the snow! This picture was taken at Boomershine Hill in Germantown. Apparently Kurt, Billy, Connor, Tyler, Kelsey, Jon, and Ben all had a fantastic time getting the head and torso on making this snowman over 7 feet tall!

Do you want us to cover snow like this?

Erik Zarnitz — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 01:12:28 +0000

After all the cold, numerous snowstorms, and back breaking shoveling… I think we can all use a laugh.

But after you watch this video, I need to know…. How many of you want us to forecast snow, more like him? LoL, leave you comments below. And believe me… I’m not even sure I would be capable of a weathercast like that!

meteorologist-freaks-out-over-blizzard.html

Snowfall Totals February 15th

Erik Zarnitz — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 04:53:02 +0000

Here are some of the running snowfall totals from across the Miami Valley as of 11:30pm Tuesday. The map you see off to the right is a doppler radar estimate of where the Heaviest snows fell. The highest amounts fell just east of Middletown with the darker purples with another solid patch close to Cedarville and South Vienna in Xenia and south eastern Clark county. The totals in the dark blue are right around 6-8 inches affecting places like Springfield, Jamestown, Xenia, and Springboro. The medium blues mostly 4-6 for Dayton, Kettering, Union, Miamisburg, Eaton, Piqua, and Sidney. Areas north and west of there mostly saw a 2-4 or 1-3 inch storm total.

Here are some of the hard numbers from some our weather checkers, viewers, and tweeters…

Beavercreek, Jim – 6

Bellbrook, Hope – 7.5

Brookville, Jason – 3.5

Camden, Gary – 4.5

Eaton, Johnathan – 3.5

Fairborn, Dorothy – 4.5

Greenville, Lowell – 4

Huber Heights, Kelly (Fb) – 4

Kettering, Susan – 4

Middletown, Jim – 9

Middletown, HaleRazor (twitter) – 10

Moraine, Laura (fb) – 7

New Paris, David – 4

Piqua, Bob -5

Trotwood, Pat – 3.5

Union, Barb -4

Versailles, Betty – 3

Xenia, Bill -7

Yellow Srings – 7

If you have any more totals and would like to add them, please post below.

-Erik Z

3rd Snow storm in 2 weeks moves into the Miami Valley!!!

Erik Zarnitz — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 05:20:01 +0000

As if the 12-15 inches of snow already on the ground wasn’t enough. We have our next date with Frosty already set and the most recent computer model runs are not letting up.

All last week, run after run of the models kept this system just to our south with the Dayton area only progged to get a glancing blow. But as of Sunday 00Z run of both the GFS & NAM.. the system was brought about 30 miles further north. More then enough to get us plastered with another six inces of the white stuff.

This is the 00Z Monday NAM model run. This is accumulated precipitation (liquid). You can see that stripe of blue just along the boarder between Kentucky and Ohio. That is a rainfall estimate, when you transition it over to snow and factor in the snowfall ratios you get some much bigger numbers. With temperatures for most of the day in the lower 20s half a foot of snow is pretty easy to get too.

The image to the right shows the approximate start time of the system. As I look at the radar (12am Monday) it looks as if these times may be an hour or so too late. However one way or another the snow will start from the southwest and work northeast by early morning.

Currently the heaviest batch of snow looks as though it will move in late morning and early afternoon, with the heaviest amounts falling south of I-70.

The largest impact with this storm will be snow. Temperatures will be too cold for ice, and the wind should not be an issue until Monday night and Tuesday when some blowing and drifting may be a concern. The Cold air does have a fairly high impact though, and that’s because it will “fluff” out the snow. Powdery snow like what we will get Presidents Day stacks up much faster then wet slushy snow, which compacts.

Snowfall totals will be the heaviest south of I-70. So if your planning on travelling to Cincy be careful. Perhaps even put it off until Tuesday or Wednesday.

Stay safe and enjoy your Presidents Day! Please send in any pictures you take, storm reports, or snowfall measurements to weather@wdtn.com. Check and post your pictures to our facebook page as well! Just do a friend search for WDTN!

Jamie, Brian, and I all have twitter and facebook accounts so send us a message while your enjoying, or not enjoying the snow!

More snow… and then WIND!

Erik Zarnitz — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 01:00:34 +0000

Here is the current setup. The main storm system is now moving off the eastern seaboard (about to dump on those same people who saw 20-30 inch totals out of the last storm!!!) What is left over us is an upper level low. That upper level low will continue to spit out light snow with some brief periods of heavy snow over the next 24 hours. The problem is, as this system gradually moves eastward and our east coast storm system gets cranking… our winds are REALLY going to pick up.

The image on the right shows one of our in house computer models. The longer the arrow and the more yellow/red the arrow has the stronger the winds. With that low on top of us currently, our winds are pretty light. But take a look back towards Illinoise. By 11pm we are expecting to see sustained winds close to 25 miles per hour with gusts between 30 to 40. You take that and add some light powdery snow, and ground blizzard conditions become very possible. If you are travelling tonight (not recommended!!) and head west, things will just get worse as the wind picks up.

This next image shows where those high winds will be, come Wednesday morning. Pretty much right on top of us. While winds may not have a big impact in larger towns and cities, if you live in a rural community you can expect ground blizzard conditions with drifts between 1 to 3 feet on rural roads. Eventually as the upper level low moves on and the big east coast snow storm heads out to sea our winds will gradually back off during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.

To add insult to injury, bitter cold temperatures will follow this system, and with fresh snow on the ground expect any clearing we see later in the week to lead towards single digit or perhaps even below zero morning lows.

But don’t worry… the clouds come back and we are tracking what could be another accumulating snowfall on Sunday! (I know… We here at channel 2 could use a break too!) – Erik Zarnitz

Snowfall Totals as of 8pm Tuesday

Erik Zarnitz — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:44:54 +0000

Here are the latest Tuesday snowfall totals from our Weathercheckers, Tweeters, and WDTN facebook fans!

If you have any totals or would like to update the amounts below please send in a comment. -Erik Z

Bellbrook – 5.75″ (Hope)

Bradford – 5″ (Scott)

Brookville – 3.5″ (Jason)

Camden – 5.25″ (Gary)

Centerville – 5.25″ (Greg)

Eaton – 4″ (Jonathan / Jim)

Fairborn – 5″ (Dorothy)

Fairborn – 4.5″ (Critter8875)

Germantown – 5″ (Larry)

Huberheights – 6″ (Warriordog 1011)

Kettering -4″ (Barbara)

Lebanon – 6″ (RickHH12)

Middletown – 6″ (Jim)

Moraine – 6″ (Laura)

New Carlisle 4.75″ (Vicki)

New Paris – 4″ (David)

Piqua – 5″ (Bob)

Sidney – 3.5″ (Don)

Springboro – 5″ (Bonnie)

Tipp City – 5″ (John)

Trotwood – 5″ (Pat)

Union – 4″ (Solid8fate)

Xenia – 6″ (Bill)

Yellow Springs – 6″ (Jack)

Bitter cold temperatures… and another chance at some snow!

Erik Zarnitz — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 03:58:57 +0000

Temperatures on Sunday morning made it all the way down to ZERO on Sunday morning!!! Brrrrrr!!! That is the coldest temperature that we have seen in Dayton since January 31st of last year. No big record or anything, but thats just about as cold as we normally get around here. On top of all that if you happened to get up early on Sunday you probably saw some frost covering everything. (have a picture of a spider web covered in frost in the Gallery below). That’s because temperatures got down so low, moisture was condensing out of the atmosphere anywhere it could, Trees, houses, cars, spiderwebs.

With all the cold air around every system that has come this way has been snow, and it looks like our next one is moving in come Monday morning. This is one of those rather weak Alberta Clippers. Generally it looks as though most areas will receive an inch or two. I did include three inches as a possibility for some of our northern counties. Colder temperatures plus a little more moisture could possibly fluff out another inch in a few isolated locations. Enjoy the snow!