Jamie Jarosik

Light snow ends today… but heavier snow possible Sunday!

January 30th, 2015 at 8:59 am by under Weather

A cold front moved through the Miami Valley this morning, and temperatures really dropped as the northwest winds pumped in colder air. We started off near 30-degrees at 4am, and by 8am we were down to 21-degrees! We’ve also been dealing with on and off snow showers–mostly light, but a few have had a heavier burst. It’s been just enough to make for some slick conditions for the morning drive, especially as the snow fell on top of some of the frozen moisture left from yesterday.

High pressure will build our way today, drying us out as we head into the afternoon hours. We will see clouds with breaks of sun at times… and blustery conditions. Northwest winds will continue between 10-20mph, and keep our wind chills in the single digits.

Saturday will be a dry and seasonable day with sunshine. Clouds increase later in the day, and the chance of snow arrives by Saturday evening. This next storm system will be a prolonged snow event, that will last through Sunday night. Here is the rundown:

impacts

Exactly how much snow will fall in any given county will highly depend on the track of the low as it moves our way. Here are several computer models I’ve been looking at this morning. Each color represents a different model’s storm track:

track

Most of the models take the low through Kentucky, but one has it farther south. Any shift in the track would shift heavier snow bands, too. If it shifts much farther north, there will be the potential for rain to mix in, cutting down on totals. But let’s at least take a look at the potential for significant snow. If we’re talking 6-inches or more… here are the probabilities as of now:

chance

A pretty good shot. So it’s something we will watch through the weekend. It’s definitely a weekend to stay connected… via wdtn.com and social media… as the storm evolves and hits the Miami Valley! Just keep in mind the roads will likely be a mess as our heading to and from your Superbowl parties, so be careful! AND the possibility for school delays/closings will be there Monday.

Jamie
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Windy and cool today with showers… then much colder Friday!

January 29th, 2015 at 9:52 am by under Weather

A storm system moving into the Miami Valley caused a very slippery morning commute! Even though air-temperatures were above freezing, as rain spread in… the actual temperature of the road surfaces were below freezing in many areas. Our traffic reporter @KRossmiller had more than two dozen accidents reported during the morning rush hour… and numerous slide-offs, too. Our Weatherchecker in Kettering said his driveway was a sheet of ice! This is a picture of some icing in Englewood from reporter, @WDTNJakeRyle:

ICE

Conditions will continue to improve across the area as we head into the late morning hours. The steadier precipitation is winding down, and it there will be a bit of a lull in the activity through lunchtime. We do expect more showers to develop in the afternoon… certainly warm enough for just rain at that time. We have strong southerly winds (read: it’s windy!) that will boost highs into the lower 40s! Then as the front comes through during the late afternoon/early evening, we will see colder air move in once again. Rain will mix with and change over to snow showers this evening:

forecast

We’ll stick with a few snow showers overnight. Any accumulation will be light, but temperatures will drop down near 20 for a low… so more slick spots will be possible for Friday morning’s commute. It is going to be a LOT colder on Friday, as high temps  don’t get out of the mid-20s! The next system to watch looks to affect us on Superbowl Sunday. We could see another round of accumulating snow… so stay tuned!

Jamie
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One more quiet day, and a storm arrives Thursday!

January 28th, 2015 at 7:12 am by under Weather

High pressure sitting right over the Miami Valley kept skies clear and winds light overnight. That, combined with the snow on the ground, has allowed temperatures to TANK. Here’s a look at some of the low readings this morning:

temps

The high keeps skies clear through a good part of the day, so we expect plenty of sunshine. With southerly winds developing, our afternoon highs will be slightly higher than yesterday, too! We should climb into the upper 20s to right around 30-degrees.

The next storm system is back to our west, and will head our way for Thursday. Ahead of it, those southerly winds will increase… and clouds will also thicken tonight. This will help keep temperatures from dropping off too much… and we should hold steady in the upper 20s.

As moisture spreads in, we have the chance to see a few morning showers in the area Thursday. If this materializes, we could have slick conditions in spots. Initially, precip could fall as freezing rain or sleet. So the morning drive may be impacted by this. Temperatures will warm quickly through the morning, and most of Thursday will be on and off rain showers. We will soar well above freezing, but it will be a windy, rainy day:

highs     forecast

As the system moves through, temperatures will drop towards evening. This means rain changes over to light snow showers. These will continue through the night into early Friday morning. While we don’t expect to see any more than an inch in spots… again, slick conditions will be possible for the Friday morning drive.

Jamie
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System moves away, now cold and breezy…

January 26th, 2015 at 8:46 am by under Weather

The system that moved through the Miami Valley Sunday into early this morning brought rain-to-snow across the region. We saw anywhere from 1.5″ to 5″ across the Miami Valley. Here is a map with some of the snow totals we received:

Snow

The snow is over, but a north wind between 10-20 mph through at least noon, will keep the potential for blowing and drifting snow around. Those winds are also bringing in much colder air… and highs will be more than 10-degrees colder than they were Sunday. We will top out in the mid-20s this afternoon.

Now the storm system will strengthen as it moves up the east coast. Not only could some of the major metropolitan areas see 1 to 2 FEET of snow, but the winds will also increase to between 50-70mph at times. This is why Blizzard Warnings are in effect:

warnings

Travel is NOT recommended in the areas under the warnings… and we expect many airline cancellations/delays.

A quick-moving system will pass just west of us, and we expect clouds to linger today… but dry conditions to continue through really Wednesday afternoon. The next system for us to watch will be on Thursday. It looks like this one will draw in enough warm air to see mostly rain vs. snow… but a change-over could occur. We will watch it… and we turn cold again after that.

Jamie
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Two systems to watch; one affects us more than the other!

January 23rd, 2015 at 6:34 am by under Weather

We are keeping our eyes on two storm systems as we head into the weekend. The first one is south of us, and will lift northeast through the day. You can see the precipitation associated with it on this morning’s Sat/Rad image:

satrad

This will bring a wintry mix and snow to a narrow band, and will make for hazardous travel in the areas affected. Portions of south central Ohio may pick up an inch of snow, but most of this precip will stay south and east of the Miami Valley. You can see the outline of the most likely problem-spots by looking at the Winter Weather Advisories in effect:

ADVISORY

Here is what Futuretrac is predicting for this evening:

forecast

The back edge of the snow will be fairly sharp, and there is a slight chance that a little snow creeps into the far southeastern counties. As you can see from the image above, it won’t take much of a track shift for that to happen. So we will keep our eye on this for the possibility.

It looks like the clouds hold over the area today, but break a bit Saturday. Saturday will be a little breezy, with highs up near 40 degrees.

On Sunday, the next Clipper system moves in… this will bring likely rain and snow showers to the Miami Valley, followed by cold conditions:

event

The exact track of this low will determine how much rain we see vs. snow… and ultimately, any snowfall accumulation. Right now, it looks fairly light, with 1 to 2″ possible for at least part of the Miami Valley… but we will continue to watch it, and update you of any changes on air and online!

Happy Friday!
Jamie
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Chilly weather as we head towards the weekend…

January 21st, 2015 at 9:36 am by under Weather

Yesterday afternoon, the sun popped out in part of the Miami Valley, and this lead to a huge jump in temperature! It was a fabulous day in many communities, with highs running 15-degrees above normal. Where clouds remained in place (northern counties)… it was a good deal cooler:

temps

Today, more of us will have to deal with clouds. There is a slight chance they may break in spots across the far south, but most will not experience that. Another disturbance will quickly drop in from the northwest today:

satrad

That will increase the chance for showers after 2 or 3pm. We’ll see the chance of rain showers, with a few snowflakes mixing in at times. And then there will be a transition to snow showers through the evening/overnight. Any accumulation will be light–under a 1/2 inch. But still watch for slick spots, because we’ll drop into the upper 20s for lows.

Drier conditions build in for Thursday, even though a good deal of clouds will linger. Highs will also be a touch lower, but near-normal, in the mid-30s. The sun will pop back out Friday and Saturday, and temperatures will respond by getting back up near 40-degrees.

Jamie
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Weak disturbances, light precip, and cooling temps…

January 20th, 2015 at 8:14 am by under Weather

After a gorgeous day off for many yesterday, we head back to school and work with unsettled weather. This morning, we’ve been dealing with a wintry mix of precipitation moving through the region:

ld2hd

Most have been seeing rain drops, but I have had a few reports of icing on objects (Ft. Loramie in Shelby Co)… and even some snowflakes mixing in (Greenville in Darke Co). Most temps are at or above freezing, but when you hit a pocket where it’s just a degree or two colder… and you’ll have some slick conditions developing. Be especially cautious on bridges and overpasses, as these cool faster than the surface streets. This is because there is airflow both above AND blow the road, so cooling is more efficient!

As the disturbance moves east of the area through lunchtime, we will see dry conditions this afternoon. The clouds will break a bit, and temperatures will once again push into the 40s. BUT this will be our last day in the 40s for awhile! Another disturbance will move in tomorrow, and bring in more rain or snow showers… as well as a push of cooler air:

temp trend

Now even though temps will be dropping, we are nowhere NEAR the record cold we experienced in Dayton 30-years ago! January 20th, 1985 was the coldest day ever in the Gem City:

extreme wx

So 30s don’t look so bad now, do they? :) Have a great day!
Jamie
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Seasonable today, much warmer tomorrow!

January 16th, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

We have been trending 10-to-20 degrees warmer across the Miami Valley this morning! It hasn’t been too bad out there, with local temps in the mid-upper 20s. A weak cold front will drop in this afternoon, and we’ll be in and out of a few clouds as it moves through. But we do expect to see some sun, and continue dry conditions. Even though we’re starting off warmer, afternoon highs will be similar to yesterday. Expect seasonable readings in the mid-30s.

The front stalls out and then lifts back north of us as a warm front on Saturday. This will allow a strong southerly flow to develop, ushering in much warmer weather. Take a look at forecast highs for tomorrow afternoon:

highs

This will come along with a lot of sunshine. So Saturday is the pick day of the weekend, with our next chance for precip arriving on Sunday. Right now, it looks like we could see a few rain or snow showers through the day, but little snow accumulation.

Temperatures next week look to stay pretty close to normal… with highs in the mid-30s. No big swings!

Jamie
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Kind of quiet through Saturday, as we keep warming…

January 15th, 2015 at 8:26 am by under Weather

We’re starting off with some clouds in spots, but where we’ve been clear for awhile… it’s cold! Check out the huge temperature spread across the Miami Valley at 8am:

temps

Dry conditions are expected this afternoon, as we see some sun mix in over the Miami Valley.

High pressure at the surface will keep us dry and cold, but we will actually be almost 10-degrees warmer than yesterday’s high temperature! We expect to climb up near 30-degrees in Dayton. It will, however, be a bit colder across the northern portion of the Miami Valley. Here is a look at the high temp spread:

FORECAST

A weak cold front will move in tonight. There is just the slightest chance that a few will see a flurry out of this feature, but most will not. We go into Friday with high pressure building right back in behind the front… so it will be another bright day! And it will actually be a little WARMER, as we top out in the mid-30s.

The REAL warm-up happens on Saturday. In a strengthening southerly flow with lots of sun, we will see our highs soar into the mid-40s! It really looks like a nice start to the weekend. The chance of showers returns on Sunday, with a slight drop in temperatures to go along with that!

Jamie
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Cold for a couple days, then a warm up!

January 13th, 2015 at 7:11 am by under Weather

High pressure building in from the northwest is helping to pump cold air into the Miami Valley this morning:

temps

With a northeast breeze, we have wind chills in the single digits today. Highs will struggle to get out of the teens, too. We have a pretty decent cloud deck in place early on, and even a few flurries. But we do not expect to see any snow accumulation today. The clouds will try to break a bit this afternoon, and we expect a pretty quiet weather pattern through the week.

We do have a couple cold days to get through before we enjoy a little warm up. Take a look at forecast high temps:

highs

The upward climb will continue Friday and Saturday. We expect to be into the lower 40s Saturday afternoon! That will feel great with a lot of sunshine. If you still have to get the outdoor holiday decorations down–Saturday is your day! Sunday into Monday, clouds will be more common… but we will still see our temps just above normal.

Jamie
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Wintry mix to snow… then colder!

January 12th, 2015 at 10:39 am by under Weather

A wintry mix of precip hit the Miami Valley during the overnight and early morning hours. We saw everything from rain to freezing rain to sleet and snow right through the peak morning rush hours. Now colder air is moving in, so many are seeing that mix-to-snow transition:

ld2hd

This will continue through noon, and any snow accumulation will be light. However, even light amounts will still keep things slick out there! So travel with caution! Temperatures will drop into the 20s for the drive home from work, and especially once the sun sets, we will have a re-freeze. So any moisture left on the roads will ice over again, and slick spots will be around for the Tuesday morning drive.

Tuesday morning will be frigid again, with lows dropping to 10-degrees… and it will be breezy, so wind chills will be in the single digits. In fact, we have a frigid couple of days beyond today! Here our the forecast highs:

temps

At least we’ll see tons of sun during this time frame! Partly to mostly sunny skies will be with us through most of the week. And during the second half of the week, we will enjoy a warming trend!

Jamie
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Another push of Arctic air for today and Saturday…

January 9th, 2015 at 9:43 am by under Weather

A cold front moved through the Miami Valley this morning. It brought in scattered snow showers that put a dusting down in spots:

satrad

Temperatures actually WARMED ahead of the front; we climbed into the lower 20s right before it moved through! But once the front passed, we plummeted again into the teens. And the winds really picked up with the front, too! Did you hear them howling during the overnight/early morning? Here are some of the peak gusts in our area:

wind

It will be breezy through the afternoon, so expect areas of blowing and drifting snow to continue. Temperatures will remain frigid, with single-digit readings likely most of this afternoon. Wind chills will be as low as -15°… and we do have a Wind Chill Advisory in effect for all of the Miami Valley through 1pm Saturday.

Tonight, skies will clear out, and with the snowpack on the ground, our lows will tank again. We will drop down to an air temperature of -5°, with wind chills in the -20 to -25° range.

High pressure builds in for Saturday, keeping skies clear. Even though we’ll see a lot of sun, it will be frigid with afternoon highs in the mid-teens. On Sunday, a southerly flow develops and it won’t be as cold! We’ll see highs near 30-degrees, with increasing clouds. We are watching our next storm system… it looks to move in late Sunday. We have the chance of a wintry mix–some snow, sleet or even freezing rain. This will be possible Sunday evening through the day Monday. So stay tuned to the forecast over the weekend, as the Monday morning drive could be dicey.

Jamie
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Dangerously cold air hangs around…

January 8th, 2015 at 10:03 am by under Weather

Arctic air remains in place, as we try to get through the coldest morning of the week! Low temperatures dipped well below zero… down to -7 in Dayton, but it felt a lot colder! Wind chills were running between -25 and -30… which are dangerous levels. At -20, it only takes about 30 minutes for frostbite to set in.

We’ll see double-digits for highs today, but will remain well below normal. Highs will top out near 12-degrees this afternoon, with breezy southerly winds it will still feel sub-zero. A storm system approaches this evening, so temperatures will actually hold fairly steady overnight, only dropping to around 10-degrees.

This system brings in scattered snow showers late this evening through early Friday morning:

forecast

Accumulation looks light–some could see an inch or so. There is the slight chance that our northern counties get a little more than that, and the southern counties a little less. Behind the front, cold air will once again push in, so highs Friday won’t climb very much. We will be up near 12-degrees, and again dip below 0 by Saturday morning!

The good/bad news is that we will warm up a little Sunday into the start of next week… BUT as moisture returns, we could see a messy wintry mix Sunday night into Monday.

Jamie
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Snow tapers; Arctic blast moves in…

January 6th, 2015 at 9:50 am by under Weather

As expected, accumulating snow impacted the Miami Valley overnight and right through the morning commute today. We forecasted 3-5″ of snow by sunrise, and that is what many saw… with some isolated higher amounts:

snow

The snow will gradually wind down across the area through the rest of the morning. The afternoon will be mostly cloudy, and cold. Winds will also increase, so blowing and drifting of our light, fluffy snow will occur. Keep this in mind if out traveling. Some of the treated roads may become snow-covered again!

Colder air will move in behind this storm system, too:

temps

So if the kids want to get out and play in the snow… today is their best bet! Tonight we will drop off quickly, and end up with the coldest readings of the season so far:

LOWS

And as the winds will stay up, it will feel even colder. If the kids have to head back to school tomorrow, make sure they are dressed for bone-chilling cold:

event

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will only reach 10-degrees! And we could even see a few snow showers in the afternoon. Any accumulation will be light. The cold reaches it’s peak Wednesday night, as temperatures tank to -6, with wind chills at or below -15. Try to stay warm!

Jamie
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A cold, sunny start to the week, but accumulating snow tonight…

January 5th, 2015 at 10:17 am by under Weather

An Arctic high is keeping us cold and dry this morning:

temps

Wind chill have been sub-zero… and this is something that will continue through the day, with breezy conditions and highs only reaching near 18-degrees. A fast-moving storm system will roll in tonight, bringing a good chance of accumulating snow to the area. The timing of steady (and at times, heavy) snow will be between 11pm tonight and 11am Tuesday. You can see how it overspreads the entire Miami Valley on our Futuretrac forecast model:

forecast

We do expect to see a shovelable snow out of this system! There is still some question on the exact track, so stay tuned… but as of this morning here is our thinking:

snow

Chief Meteorologist Brian Davis will have an update in our 90-minutes of news beginning at 5pm on @WDTN Ch2. Just keep in mind there could be school delays… or even closings… on Tuesday. And if snow wasn’t enough, get ready for the COLDEST air of the season this week! Wednesday and Thursday won’t see highs climb very far above 10-degrees… and morning lows will be in the single digits, and even sub-zero. Wind chills will be as cold as -10 to -15°, which could also prompt school delays. Winter is back!

Jamie
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Occasional showers tonight, then a change for Sunday…

January 3rd, 2015 at 9:05 pm by under Weather

A strong area of low pressure brought the steady (and at times, heavy) rain to the Miami Valley Saturday. Many spots received between 1″-2″ of rain, and we still have showers in the forecast overnight:

RAINFALL

The good news, the activity that will affect us overnight is not as steady or heavy–it’s more on and off. Temperatures have really warmed ahead of the main storm, and most are still sitting in the 50s this evening:

temps

We will likely see temps hold steady through the overnight, and then bottom out early tomorrow morning around 45-degrees. That means, there’s no threat of any ice tonight! But we will be turning COLDER on Sunday, as the winds pick up. Get ready for a blustery day, with falling temperatures:

HOUR BY HOUR

As the cold air marches on in, we will see showers change from rain to snow showers. The transition is most likely to occur in the mid-to-late afternoon. Accumulation, if any, will be very light… under a half-inch. But Sunday night slick spots will be possible as temperatures tank! A COLD BLAST settles in for much of next week. We will be running well below normal–many days will only see highs in the teens, and lows drop into the single digits. There is a clipper system to watch for Monday night and Tuesday… this could bring us a quick snow accumulation. The morning commute Tuesday may be impacted, so stay tuned!

Jamie
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Quiet weather today, but a wild weather ride this weekend…

January 2nd, 2015 at 9:09 am by under Weather

The high that brought us a cold, but clear, finish to 2014 is moving away from the Miami Valley today. We have a southerly flow that has developed… so that means a warming trend as we head into the weekend.

temps

Today, temperatures will be fairly close to normal, with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s. The flow strengthens Saturday, ahead of the next storm system currently to our southwest:

satrad

The leading edge of moisture from that system will move in late tonight. As it does, surface temperatures will be at or just below freezing, so we could see a brief period of freezing rain. The timing looks like a window between 3 and 6am:

forecast

So if you will be traveling around this time, be sure you are aware that some areas could be slick. We will quickly warm above freezing through the rest of the morning from south to north. And temperatures will soar in the afternoon! Highs climb into the lower 50s, but we will be dealing with periods of rain, so it will be difficult to get out and enjoy the warm-up. We do expect a good soaking for the area, as most models give us between 1 and 2 inches of rain. With a cold front crossing the area Saturday night, we can’t rule out a rumble or two of thunder, and very windy conditions.

Sunday will start off with a few rain showers in the morning, with temperatures dropping as we head through the day, and rain changing to snow showers. It will still be windy, so expect a blustery end to the weekend! And next week… the coldest air of the season is poised to dive right into the Miami Valley!

Cold Blast

Get ready for real Arctic air!

Jamie
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Arctic air for NYE and NYD…

December 31st, 2014 at 9:30 am by under Weather

Aaaaand the Arctic air is here! We are not in the coldest part of the airmass, as temperatures in the central part of the country are sub-zero… but we are running about 8 to 12 degrees below normal. Here is a look at our morning low temps:

LOWS

Wind chills have been ranging between 2 and 6 degrees this morning. During the afternoon, we will enjoy sunshine, but it will still be very cold. Highs near 23, and wind chills will still be in the single digits at times as winds increase a bit.

Tonight looks cold and breezy for new year’s eve! Temps will fall back into the teens this evening, and wind chills will remain in the single digits to near zero.

It will be another cold one for New Year’s Day. Winds stay up between 10 and 20mph, so it will be cold and breezy. Highs will climb up near 29, but it will feel even colder with the wind. Friday and Saturday will be the warmest of the next week or so. Highs will push into the upper 30s/lower 40s. BUT the chance for showers will also be increasing as the next storm moves in. There is the chance of some mixed precip or freezing rain on Saturday morning… but we will quickly warm and change over to rain in the afternoon:

sat

As the storm moves over the region, colder air will be pulled into the Miami Valley. Sunday will start with the chance of a mix in the morning… changing over to snow showers through the rest of the day:

sun

So it’s a warmer/wet start to the weekend… and it ends colder/snowy. Then temps are back below normal for at least the first half of next week.

Have a safe and happy new year!

Jamie
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Sun this week, but gradually getting colder…

December 29th, 2014 at 8:45 am by under Weather

A strong area of high pressure building in from Canada will bring a cold blast to the country this week! You can see the Arctic air already in place in the Northern Plains this morning… temps well below zero:

temps

Thankfully, we won’t get quite THAT cold here in the Miami Valley. We will just be on the edge of the REALLY cold air:

Cold Blast

Today, highs will be near normal, but tomorrow we’ll drop a little… and then even more so for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day:

Trend

We will at least get to enjoy the sun each day, with the high in control. BUT if you’re heading out to ring in the new year, be prepared for a very cold night!

Holiday

At least it will be dry, so we won’t have to worry about wintry precipitation to make the roads bad. Then, warmer air will be pulled into the Miami Valley as a storm system moves in from the southwest over the weekend. There is still some question on track and timing of this feature, but it does look to bring the potential of rain or snow to the Miami Valley in the Friday through Monday time frame! Stay tuned!

Jamie
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Windy & rainy w/some flakes possible tonight!

December 24th, 2014 at 6:46 am by under Weather

We are starting off this Christmas Eve quite mild, with temperatures in the 50s!

temps

It won’t be like this all day, however. A strong area of low pressure to our southwest will lift northeast, and help to bring a cold front through the region:

temps2

This will mean showers, windy conditions, and colder air spilling in late in the day. We do have a Wind Advisory in effect for all the Miami Valley this afternoon into tonight, as winds could gust as high as 45-50mph. So keep an eye on those outdoor Christmas decorations!

wind

Rain is most likely later this afternoon and evening, and then as the colder air moves in we may see a mix/change over to snow:

forecast

A few snow showers will be around tonight and Christmas morning, but any accumulation will be light–maybe a dusting in spots. It will be a chilly holiday, with breezy conditions and highs almost 20-degrees lower than today!

highs

But we’ll see recovery with highs back in the 40s on Friday and Saturday. In fact, Friday will be the nicest day of the  next week or so, with some sun to go along with the 40s!

Merry Christmas!!
Jamie
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