Jamie Jarosik

Turning colder beyond today!

October 30th, 2014 at 7:46 am by under Weather

We’re starting off with some clouds this morning… and they’re doing good for our growing season! They have held temperatures in the lower 40s in most spots, so frost has not been a concern:

Temps    temps2

Notice it’s closer to the center of high pressure… that is where skies are clear and winds are calm. We will eventually see some sunshine today, but it will be another cool afternoon, with highs in the lower 50s. If your community has Trick-or-Treat tonight, you have the better of the two nights this week:

event

If your community has Trick-or-Treat on Friday, you might want to consider checking the list of Thursday Beggars Nights to drive somewhere else tonight! Friday looks cold, windy and wet at times. The rain chances will be highest after lunch, as showers move in from the west:

FORECAST

And during the evening hours, much colder air will be moving in from the north… so temperatures will be dropping! Looks like many will have to cover UP the costumes on Friday:

EVENT2

Yes, that is a snowflake on the forecast above! We may see a few wet snowflakes mix in during the evening, with a better chance overnight. We drop to 30-degrees early Saturday morning… and the afternoon high is only going to be 40-degrees! Brrrrr! By Sunday morning, we dip into the mid-20s.

Jamie
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Cooler for a couple days… then COLDER

October 29th, 2014 at 7:29 am by under Weather

Tuesday’s cold front is moving well off to the east, and we have high pressure building in behind it:

temps2

A cooler air mass has moved in, as well… and we will have a couple days near/below normal. Highs both today and Thursday will be in the mid-50s, with a mix of sun and clouds and dry conditions. This week, we have many communities having Trick-or-Treat on Thursday or Friday. You can get the full list of times and locations here: TRICK OR TREAT.

If your city has Beggars Night on Thursday… you win! Seriously, you will have MUCH better weather during the evening:

event

On Friday… the Halloween forecast actually looks quite scary, if you’re not a fan of cold! A stronger trough drops in and temperatures really drop, as well:

500

Expect showers during the daylight hours Friday… with the potential for some wet snowflakes mixing in after the sun sets. Little or no snow accumulation will occur. We still expect the first freeze of the season, too– both Saturday and Sunday mornings will be in the 20s!

Jamie
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Showers today… then much cooler

October 28th, 2014 at 9:43 am by under Weather

What a warm start to the week! As expected, our high temperature Monday afternoon reached 78-degrees… just three degrees shy of  the record for the date. Overnight, it remained mild, check out these temps:

Temps

Now things are changing! A cold front is moving into the Miami Valley today, and we will see showers and even a thunderstorm or two through early afternoon. You can keep tabs on the rain by linking to Live Doppler 2HD anytime!

It will also be another breezy day, with a southwest wind between 10 and 20 mph with slightly higher gusts. Temperatures will slowly fall later in the day, and we will be dropping into the 40s overnight. But this will not be the coldest night of the week! There is the potential for a frost and freeze in the forecast:

lows

There are a lot of communities holding Beggars’ Night on Thursday and Friday this week. Clearly, the better of the two days weather-wise is going to be Thursday. Friday looks even cooler, with the potential for a few showers at times. By Friday evening… IF the moisture lingers… we could even see a few wet snowflakes!  Eeek! Now THAT’S scary.

Jamie
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Unseasonably warm today, with changes Tuesday!

October 27th, 2014 at 7:54 am by under Weather

A warm front south of the area will lift north today, getting us into an unseasonably warm air mass:

Temps

We’re starting off with clouds north of this boundary, but as the front lifts through we’ll see plenty of sunshine in the afternoon. We expect highs in the upper 70s… quite close to a record high for this day!

event

It will be a breezy afternoon, with southerly winds 10-20mph and slightly  higher gusts. But enjoy the sunshine and warmth. Things change as early as late morning on Tuesday, as a cold front approaches the area. This will bring in showers and even the chance of a thunderstorm:

front

The rest of the week will feature temperatures at or below normal. Halloween is still looking chilly with a few showers possible. Right now, it looks like they may be moving out by Trick or Treat in the evening!

Jamie
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Beautiful Fall weather to continue!

October 25th, 2014 at 9:41 pm by under Weather

What a beautiful Autumn day here in the Miami Valley. Believe it or not, a cold front was crossing the region. While we started off with clouds, they quickly cleared out as you can see on our satellite imagery:

sat   sat 2

We enjoyed plenty of sunshine in the afternoon, which  boosted our temperatures significantly! We officially made it up to 75-degrees in Dayton. It was truly one of the best days of the season. Here are a few photos of the afternoon and evening:

leaves

My kids helped… well PLAYED while we did yard work :)

Mark Allan took a 40 mile bike ride to Caesar Creek!

Mark Allan took a 40 mile bike ride to Caesar Creek!

Tom Westendorf sent this beautiful shot of the contrails in the clear evening sky in Kettering.

Tom Westendorf sent this beautiful shot of the contrails in the clear evening sky in Kettering.

Now a slightly cooler air mass will build in for the second half of the weekend. We will dip into the lower 40s overnight, and Sunday’s highs will be in the mid-upper 60s. Still above normal, and still quite pleasant. Look for a bright blue sky and lots of sun to top off our great weekend!

On Monday, a warm front will lift through the area in the morning, and bring us another warm afternoon:

front

Then a stronger cold front arrives on Tuesday, with our next chance of rain. We will gradually turn cooler during the second half of the week, and unfortunately it looks chilly for Trick-or-Treaters (and high school football) on Halloween.

I hope you have been able to enjoy this awesome Autumn weather while it’s here!

Jamie
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Warmer today, but changes for the weekend…

October 17th, 2014 at 8:37 am by under Weather

We’re finally getting a dry day in the Miami Valley as we finish off the week! High pressure to our south will bring some sunshine this afternoon, and strong southerly winds… which will help warm temperatures up near 70 degrees after this cool start:

temps

The cold front to the west will move in tonight, bringing just the slightest chance of a spotty shower to the area. This won’t happen until after midnight, so no threat of rain for the high school football games! It will be breezy and cool for Operation Football, with increasing clouds.

Upper level energy crosses the region on Saturday, bringing a better chance of scattered showers. It will be quite a different forecast for the weekend, with much cooler weather around. Highs will be in the mid-50s, and with a stiff northwest wind Saturday, it will feel a little blustery!

forecast

Behind this system, we will really see temperatures drop! If skies can clear out Saturday night, we will tank into the 30s early Sunday morning. If you still have sensitive plants, you’ll want to protect them!

cold

The latest report from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources has many of our local parks at PEAK fall color this week! This may be THE weekend to get out and take in some of the beautiful shades of the season. The better weather day looks to be Sunday. While it will be cool, it won’t be as windy… and we expect more sunshine for the latter half of the weekend!

I am heading to the National Weather Association annual meeting next week, to get my weather geek on! ;) Keep an eye on Twitter for updates from #NWAS14! Tara will be with you on 2 News Today!

Enjoy your weekend!
Jamie
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Still unsettled for a couple days…

October 15th, 2014 at 6:45 am by under Weather

An upper low to our west will slowly cross the Miami Valley today into Thursday, keeping our weather unsettled:

satrad

While we’re starting off dry, we will see scattered showers develop as we head into the afternoon hours. It will not be as windy as yesterday, and it we won’t have the prolonged periods of rain, but on and off showers can be expected:

forecast

With the upper low and unsettled weather, it will be a cooler day, with highs in the lower 60s. A set-up like this sometimes causes “cold air funnels” to develop. These are funnel clouds visible in the sky… but they rarely touch down. The National Weather Service does not issue warnings for cold air funnels, but they can look threatening. In the past, I know some communities have sounded their outdoor weather sirens upon the seeing these ominous features, so just be aware of that. If you see one, snap a picture and send to ReportIt@wdtn.com or use the ReportIt feature at www.wdtn.com to upload your photo!

The upper low will be shifting off to our east on Thursday, but we will still have the chance of a few showers, as we remain mild. Highs will again be in the lower 60s. We do expect improvement for the end of the week–Friday looks awesome! Partly sunny, dry and highs into the upper 60s!

Jamie
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Right back into an unsettled pattern this week…

October 13th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

A slow-moving storm system will keep the Miami Valley with the chance of rain each day this week. Today, a warm front will move into the area, and with breezy southerly winds, temperatures will soar:

temps    HIGHS

Scattered showers, even a few thunderstorms will be most likely during the late morning/early afternoon hours… but we really could see a shower at any time of the day. The rain chances, however, will be HIGHEST on Tuesday as a strong cold front moves in:

forecast

We expect a decent chance of rain all day long, with heavy downpours possible. If storms line up just right, there will be the potential for “training” storms… and localized flooding. There is a minimal severe weather risk Tuesday, although a few stronger wind gusts are possible.

A closed low will be slow to move over the area Wednesday and Thursday. This will keep us with a 30-40% chance of mainly afternoon showers, and slightly lower temperatures:

500

Right now, it looks like the low lifts out just in time for the upcoming weekend. We should return to dry weather by Friday!

Jamie
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One more gloomy day before a better weekend…

October 10th, 2014 at 7:58 am by under Weather

A front has been stalled south of the Miami Valley… keeping the clouds and on and off showers around. And it’s STILL there today:

temps

A wave of low pressure will move along the front, pushing it a little farther north this afternoon and evening.  So rain becomes more likely as the day goes on:

forecast

The best chance of rain will be along and south of I-70, although a few spotty showers will even be possible north of this. Rain will continue to be likely through the evening… so that means a not-so-pleasant Friday night football experience!

event

But overnight, rain will taper off late… and we have a mostly DRY weekend forecast! Saturday will still be cool with highs in the upper 50s, but with some sun it will at least feel pleasantly cool. Sunday will be a little warmer, as we climb back into the lower 60s. And Sunday is trending drier, too, so just the slight chance of a shower late in the day.

Rain chances increase significantly early next week as a strong cold front moves our way. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s for highs Monday and Tuesday ahead of the system… but drop off again mid-week.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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Today… similar to Monday. Wednesday… improvement.

October 7th, 2014 at 8:06 am by under Weather

Another disturbance is moving into the Miami Valley today! This will keep us with the chance for scattered showers and even a rumble or two of thunder. Yesterday, we had mainly on and off showers… with a few thunderstorms that developed late in the day. These dumped some heavier rain and even pea-sized hail:

hail    hail 2

This could be possible again this afternoon and early evening. The Dayton International Airport only picked up 0.04″ of rain, but other locations saw significantly more than that:

rain

This will be the nature of things again today, because the showers will be scattered. You can see the hit-and-miss nature of the system on our Futuretrac forecast model, valid for 5pm:

forecast

Rain chances die down tonight, and the clouds will break up, too. As we head toward Wednesday morning, a Total Lunar Eclipse will occur! This happens when the moon passes through the Earth’s shadow, as seen on the graphic below:

eclipse

Make sure you have a clear view to the west if you are going to check it out tomorrow morning… as the moon will be low in the sky, near the horizon. Here is more on the eclipse– what you can expect and when: LUNAR ECLIPSE.

We expect a lot of sunshine on Wednesday, as high pressure returns to the area. Highs will be close to normal, in the mid-60s, and right now it looks like the only day this week with NO chance of rain. Another disturbance moves in later in the day Thursday, and rain chances stay up Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures don’t fluctuate very much day to day right through the end of the week.

Jamie
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Scattered showers… windy… then much colder

October 3rd, 2014 at 9:50 am by under Weather

It was an unseasonably warm summer-like day on Thursday! Check out the stats:

almanac

We were fairly close to the record high for the day, thanks to sunshine and southerly winds. And, if you stepped outside early this morning, it probably felt like a nice Spring day. We had temperatures near 70 degrees all morning long:

TEMPS

This nice mild weather will NOT last. We are already seeing signs of change, with scattered showers impacting the area. You can check Live Doppler 2HD at any time.

While we will have a few breaks in the rain today, the potential for a shower will be there at any time… with the slight chance of a rumble of thunder. You can see the scattered nature of the rain on Futuretrac for this afternoon:

FORECAST

While it’s been breezy this morning, it will become windy if not gusty as the cold front comes through around the mid-afternoon hours. Winds will be up near 25-30mph. If you are heading out to a high school football game this evening, be sure to wear something warm, and perhaps have an umbrella on hand!

Saturday will start off dry, but we can’t rule out a spotty shower in the afternoon. The best chance will be across the northern counties. BUT the big story will be how COLD it will be this weekend!

chilly

Saturday’s high temp will only reach 52, and it will be breezy… so expect a chilly day ahead. Sunday will still be cool, as we climb into the upper 50s. This huge drop in temperature will definitely make it feel more like Fall!

Enjoy your weekend!
Jamie
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Warm today, then the bottom drops out!

October 2nd, 2014 at 7:29 am by under Weather

We start off partly cloudy this morning… with dry conditions across the Miami Valley. I am keeping an eye to the west, where we currently have an area of rain/thunder:

RADAR

This will continue to weaken as it heads our way, but if any of it holds together, we may see a few showers in our northwestern counties. The time frame would be late morning/early afternoon if it happens. Otherwise, what a warm day it will be! We are forecasting highs in the lower 80s. This will be aided by a southerly flow and some afternoon sunshine. This could actually be one of our last 80-degree days of the year, if not THE last. A strong cold front moves in for Friday bringing a quick end to the summer-like warmth. The first sign of change will be late tonight, as showers and thunderstorms develop. They will be in full swing early Friday, so most of the Miami Valley will deal with a wet morning commute:

FORECAST

The rain chance continues as we head into the afternoon, any thunderstorm will have the potential to produce heavy rain or gusty winds:

FORECAST 2

Friday’s highs will be near 70-degrees… so about 10-degrees lower than today, but still near normal. Take a look at how the bottom drops out for the weekend!

TEMPS

Overnight lows Sunday could dip into the upper 30s! Hopefully the heat is working!

Jamie
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Two nice days before a big change…

October 1st, 2014 at 9:35 am by under Weather

Fog settled in the Miami Valley this morning, and visibility was down near a quarter of a mile in many locations this morning. Here are a few dense fog pictures from our networks of cameras:

fog  fog 2

fog 3

The fog and low clouds will break up as we head into the afternoon. We should end up mostly sunny mid-late day and hit highs in the lower 70s. Thursday will be a warmer day, with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s ahead of a cold front. That front will bring big changes for the end of the week and the weekend. The chance of rain will be increasing Thursday night and will remain high Friday:

FORECAST

Friday will be a rainy (at times), breezy and cooler day. And then we get MUCH cooler for the weekend! Oh my–Saturday’s high is only going to be in the mid-50s!

Jamie
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Nice weather to continue…

September 29th, 2014 at 9:28 am by under Weather

We had a disturbance pass just south of the area overnight, and it brought a few clouds early this morning… but any showers stayed south and east of us. See how quickly the clouds cleared out this morning:

SATRAD     SATRAD2

Now high pressure builds in for the rest of the day. This will bring another bright afternoon, with tons of sun and warm temperatures. We continue to run about 10-degrees above normal, and expect to hit 80-degrees again today. There is a cold front well off to the northwest, which will arrive on Tuesday:

FORECAST

This doesn’t have a whole lot of moisture with it, and it’s a weak front… so a sprinkle or light shower is about all we can hope for. Unfortunately, it won’t quite be the beneficial rain we need… and the best chance of seeing any at all will be across the northern half of the Miami Valley.

Today will be our eighth straight DRY day… and most of us will have to wait until the second half of the week to pick up measurable rainfall. A stronger front arrives Thursday night into Friday morning, and it brings the better chance of rain. It will also bring in more fall-like weather… and next weekend it looks a lot cooler.

Jamie
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Quiet weather continues

September 25th, 2014 at 8:38 am by under Weather

Fabulous fall weather continues across the region! What a week it’s been… and it keeps getting slightly warmer each day. Yesterday we were back above normal:

almanac

And today we expect to hit 80-degrees, with continued sunshine. More of the same for Friday and the weekend, as we expect highs each day to be in the lower 80s… with tons of sun… and dry conditions. Perfect weather for the numerous fall festivals going on this weekend! There is a lot to do!

event

Our own Tara Hastings is MC for the Pretzel Festival in Germantown this weekend, and she’s bringing the great weather with her! Oktoberfest at the DAI, the Tipp City Mum Festival, Aullwood Apple Fest, AND the Chocolate Festival are all going to be in full swing this weekend. I will be at the Chocolate Festival on Saturday, judging the chocolate recipe contest! Tough gig, I know! ;)

We need some rain, but it’s not showing up in the forecast. Besides the slightest chance of a shower Monday or Tuesday, we will continue with dry conditions.

Jamie
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Quiet week of fabulous fall weather

September 23rd, 2014 at 9:55 am by under Weather

Fall officially began last night at 10:29pm. So this being the first full day of Fall, it is fitting that it FEELS like it. Here’s a look at our morning low temperatures:

TEMPS

Today will feature wall-to-wall sunshine across the region. We have high pressure in control, and it’s going to be with us all week! We expect little change in the weather day-to-day, besides a slow warming trend. We will see highs near 70 today, into the mid-70s on Wednesday, and upper-70s by the end of the week. This coming weekend looks fantastic, with highs near 80-degrees and continued sunshine and dry weather.

The bright afternoons and cool nights help to provide some great fall color. You may have already noticed a few trees with changing leaves! This will slowly continue over the next few weeks. The decreasing sunlight is really what makes the leaves turn… and most of the Miami Valley won’t reach PEAK fall color until mid-October:

fall

The only problem is, we need a little rain every few days, as we are below normal for the month and year:

almanac

This deficit will only increase over the next several days… keep watering what you want to keep alive!

Jamie
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Slow warming trend into the weekend…

September 18th, 2014 at 6:43 am by under Weather

High pressure continues to dominate the region, bringing another cool start to the day. With the clear skies and light winds overnight, we are once again going to start the day with some fog or low clouds. This will mix out through late morning, and the sun will be out this afternoon. Today starts a warming trend, which will continue into the first part of the weekend:

temp trend

We will remain dry through this time, as well. Changes arrive with a cold front on Sunday:

sfc

This will bring in scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Miami Valley. The image above is the GFS model forecast for 8am. So, right now it looks like the first half of the day is when we will be most likely to see rain. Drier conditions should build back in for the afternoon and evening hours. Of course, we then cool off behind this front for next week!

Jamie
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Showers possible today/tonight, then pleasant all week…

September 15th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

We are starting the day with mostly clear skies and cool temperatures, as high pressure is still in control:

TEMPS

But there are clouds to the west that will be moving in across the Miami Valley as the day goes on. There are even some showers out that way:

SATRAD

Our rain chances go up later in the day. First, across the northwestern counties mid-late afternoon… and then the rest of the Miami Valley late afternoon-evening. Rain chances linger overnight as the front moves through:

FORECAST

Highs will be coolest across those northern counties today–reaching the upper 60s. In the central and southern Miami Valley, we should climb up near 70-degrees. Behind the front, slightly cooler air will move in for Tuesday, with highs in the 60s:

HIGHS

Tuesday afternoon will be the coolest of the week, and then we will see some really pleasant weather! Lots of sun Wed-Fri, with highs in the lower 70s… and overnight lows in the upper 40s.

Jamie
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A fall-like stretch through the weekend…

September 11th, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

A strong cold front brought heavy rain to parts of the Miami Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Here are a look at some of the totals from our Weathercheckers and Doppler estimates:

rain    doppler est

Now, cooler air is moving in on northwest winds behind the front:

TEMPS

Highs today will only be near 70 degrees, and it will get slightly cooler each day through Saturday:

FRIDAY: 69
SATURDAY: 66

A real taste of fall! Late Friday night into Saturday morning would be our next chance for a few showers. Not everyone will see rain during this time, as the chance is fairly low at 20%. Otherwise, most of the weekend will be dry. Next week we will start a slow warming trend, which takes us back into the low and mid 70s as the week goes on!

Have a great weekend!

Jamie
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Thunderstorms today, then much cooler…

September 10th, 2014 at 9:25 am by under Weather

A strengthening storm system makes it’s way towards the Miami Valley today, and southerly winds ahead of it will continue to keep us warm:

TEMPS

The humidity is also going up… as dew points are climbing into the mid and upper 60s. As we heat up this afternoon, we will see the potential for showers and thunderstorms. During the early afternoon, we could see rain in the northwest counties, with the slight chance of something isolated popping up farther south and east. Rain chances through early afternoon look something like this:

POPS

Then, after 4 or 5pm, the rain chances go up area-wide. Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible late today into tonight:

forecast

And the thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rain and even strong wind. We have an elevated flooding threat, with a Flood Watch that goes in to effect at 4pm and continues through Thursday morning for all of the Miami Valley. There is also an elevated severe weather threat. We will be most at risk during the evening and overnight, as well:

svr

Rain will taper off Thursday morning, and as we dry out, cooler air will be spilling into the region! Take a look at highs tomorrow:

HIGHS

And over the weekend, we won’t get out of the 60s! Football weather, for sure!

Jamie
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