Jamie Jarosik

Showers and thunderstorms late day…

August 19th, 2014 at 10:02 am by under Weather

We have a cold front approaching from the west today. Ahead of it, we will be dealing with a warm and very humid afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-80s, and dew points will be in the upper 60s to near 70-degrees. This will make it feel even hotter! Heat index values will be up near 90-degrees.

We expect the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to fire up as the front gets closer. Initially, in the late afternoon, these will be fairly isolated. But showers and thunderstorms will fill in during the evening and overnight hours. Any of them will have the potential to produce heavy rain, and a few could also be strong to severe. A portion of the Miami Valley is included in an Elevated Risk for severe storms:

Severe Outlook

Damaging winds and hail will be the main threat. The threat will die down as the night goes on, and dry weather returns for the Wednesday morning commute. The front stalls south of us for a day, before moving back north as  a warm front on Thursday. This will allow even warmer air to build in for the end of the week and weekend. We could see 90-degree highs by Sunday.

Jamie
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More humid this week, and still unsettled…

August 18th, 2014 at 8:23 am by under Weather

We have a slow-moving area of low pressure to our south this morning, and our southern counties have been dealing with a few small showers to start the day:

temps

As we heat up this afternoon, the potential for showers will continue, and even increase a little, with heavy downpours  possible. Any shower or thunderstorm that develops will also be a slower-moving cell… so some localized flooding could be a concern later today. Watch for ponding water if you are out traveling. Notice how the rain will be scattered–not everyone will see it:

forecast

A wave of low pressure will move in from the west on Tuesday, increasing the chance for rain late in the day. Widespread severe weather is not expected, there could be a few cells that do produce stronger winds or even hail. And the threat for heavy downpours will continue, as moisture will be plentiful in the region. Our dew points will be in the upper 60s, to near 70… and it will feel quite sticky!

While clouds and the potential for rain will keep temperatures close to normal today and tomorrow, we have a warming trend for the rest of the week:

TEMP TREND

Summer is back, just in time for the first full week of school in many communities! Good luck to all students and staff this week!

Jamie
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A fall-like finish to the week, but warming for the weekend…

August 15th, 2014 at 7:44 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

High pressure is building in from the northwest, and it’s cleared skies this morning! Along with relatively calm winds, we’ve seen temperatures tank!

temps

A lot of spots have hit the upper 40s…

Springfield: 48
Richmond: 46
Piqua: 49
Celina: 47

…and it is our coolest morning of the month! The last time we felt 40-degree temps was way back in June. While it is a little chilly, the record low for today is 45-degrees… so we don’t expect to officially get THAT cold. This afternoon will be pleasantly warm, as we climb into the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies. Just spectacular weather for outdoor activities! If you are heading down to Mason for tennis… it doesn’t get much better than this:

tennis

The high shifts east of the area over the weekend. This will allow a southerly flow to develop, and warmer conditions will build in. We expect 80s for Saturday and Sunday, with increasing humidity for the second half of the weekend. The rain chance will also be going up, and we could see scattered showers and thunderstorms around Sunday and Monday.

Jamie
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A worry-free day, then the rain chance goes up again…

August 7th, 2014 at 9:20 am by under Weather

High pressure to our norther is bringing northeast winds to the Miami Valley this morning, and dew points have dropped. This means it feels much more comfortable out there, as we’ve lost the mugginess:

temps

We will see highs near 80-degrees this afternoon, and it will be pleasantly warm. The front to our south will stay there today, but that area of low pressure over Missouri will slowly track our way. We’re already seeing some clouds from this system, and while we consider today “mostly sunny”… we won’t see a bright blue sky. The thin clouds will filter the sun, and it will look more “milky” overhead.

Clouds thicken tonight, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms returns on Friday. The southern half of the Miami Valley will have the best chance at rain:

pops     forecast

The low will be a slow-mover, and rain chances will linger into the weekend. While it doesn’t look like a wash-out, we could have some heavier downpours around, as moisture increases over the region. Temperatures also warm, and we should be back in the mid-80s by Sunday. Still no 90s in sight!

Jamie
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Mostly dry, with just a few showers/t’storms today…

August 6th, 2014 at 6:16 am by under Weather

A front is draped to our south this morning, and an area of high pressure sits off to the northwest:

temps

We are starting off with some dense fog in spots, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the far northern counties until 9am. Visibility may drop below a quarter-mile in spots, so be aware that you may approach fog rather quickly.

Dry conditions have settled back in after a few showers/thunderstorms late yesterday and overnight. For the second day in a row, the Dayton International Airport picked up rainfall:

Monday’s rain:  .48″
Tuesday’s rain:  .04″

And here’s a look at how our monthly and yearly totals compare to average:

precip

With some heating and the front near by… we may see a few more showers, even a thunderstorm pop up late this afternoon or evening, as upper level energy crosses the region. Right now, it looks like the highest rain chance will be across the southern counties, closer to the front:

forecast

And even if showers do get going, you can see how spotty they will be–meaning not everyone will see rain. The high then builds in for Thursday, bringing a dry day and lots of sunshine. Then, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the area for the end of the week.

Right now, the weekend looks mostly dry and warmer, with highs in the mid-80s!

Jamie
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A warming trend as we head through the rest of the week…

July 30th, 2014 at 7:47 am by under Weather

We are starting off cool again, but will see a warming trend from here on out. Yesterday we did get close to one record… and then we actually TIED another record. Here are the details:

Tuesday’s record low:  51
Tuesday’s actual low:   52

record

Today we have mid-upper 50s to start, and highs will make it into the upper 70s. We will continue in that warming direction through the end of the week:

temps

Rain chances are also increasing. We still have the trough in place over the Great Lakes, and some energy will swing through the Miami Valley today… providing better forcing than we’ve seen the past couple of days. This, combined with daytime heating will kick off scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms this afternoon:

forecast

While widespread severe weather is not expected, we could see a little small hail in a thunderstorm or two. Drier conditions return for Thursday, and it will likely be a pretty nice day–the nicest of the week, perhaps? Rain chances return for Friday and the weekend, but we will remain warm, with highs in the lower 80s.

Jamie
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Another taste of Fall this week…

July 28th, 2014 at 9:21 am by under Weather

After a humid weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms… we are getting a taste of fall here in the Miami Valley! Highs will be running about 10-degrees below normal through the middle part of the week:

temps

Not only is it cooler… but it feels nice and refreshing with the lower humidity. Gone, are the sticky 70-degree dew points of Sunday… and the 50s have settled in behind our cold front:

dew

That front brought some severe weather Sunday afternoon. A funnel cloud was spotted near West Liberty in Champaign County around 3pm… this prompted a tornado warning. One of our viewers, Matt Harper, sent us some video of a wall cloud near his home in Cable… here is an image from that footage:

wall

This was Harper’s view as he looked toward Rt. 559 from Cable. And it’s a very ominous sight… the wall cloud is a lowering of the cloud base in a thunderstorm. If there is a tornado, this is where it would most likely materialize! And indeed, storm damage occurred around 3:25pm near Mechanicsburg. Below is a map so you can get an idea of where this occurred:

storm report

As of this morning, the NWS did not have official plans to survey damage, but they do say they may head out to a few sites today. We will let you know what they determine if they go to Champaign County.

We won’t see severe weather today, and in fact, the chance of any lightning or thunder is low. But a few showers will be possible this afternoon, as an upper-level trough is in place over the Great Lakes:

500

This cool and slightly unsettled pattern will stay with us most of the week!

Jamie
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Warming through the weekend…

July 18th, 2014 at 6:21 am by under Weather

It’s another cool start in the 50s this morning, but with high pressure now shifting east of us, our winds will become more southerly over the next 24 hours:

temps

That will allow for a gradual warm up over the next few days:

TREND

We will be dry today, even though we’ll see clouds at times. Tonight, a system will move in from the southwest and bring the slight chance of a few showers to the area, although the highest chance will remain to the east:

forecast

The rain chance goes up a bit for Saturday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. It will not be a wash-out, and we expect a lot of dry weather. On Sunday, we can’t rule out a spotty shower/thunderstorm, but the chance is fairly low. We continue to warm next week, and do have upper 80s in the forecast by Tuesday.

Enjoy the weekend! I am off next week, but you are in good hands with @MetTaraHastings

Jamie
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One more day in the 70s, then we’ll start to climb…

July 17th, 2014 at 7:21 am by under Weather

It really feels like Fall across the region, with this cooler air mass in place. Over the past 24 hours, I’ve heard jokes about the fact we should be watching football, raking leaves and even Trick-or-Treating. We were out at Delco Park during the early afternoon hours, and it was almost chilly during the time the skies got mostly cloudy! As we were walking around the pond, the kids (and adults!) were wondering out loud about certain aspects of the park. I am actually on the Kettering Parks Board, so I felt it was my duty to find some answers… and I did! Here are some useless but interesting points about Delco Park:

*How deep is the pond around the pier?
5 Feet deep around the pier and about 12 Feet deep out in the middle of the pond
*What are the buoys in the water?
There is a club with remote controlled sail boats and when they come out, they do competition with each other to sail around the buoys. 
*On the west end of the pond…the trees right along the bank have their roots exposed. Have they always been like that?
These trees are Cypress trees and they grow in or near water and have those distinctive roots (some times called “knees” with the Cypress trees).  They love having their roots in water.
*Will the continued park improvements involve swings at some point?
Yes, swings will be back, but it is uncertain exactly when this will happen. The long term plan is to add another play structure with soft surface connected to the new existing play structure.  The  next play structure will be made for younger children ages 2 to 5.

So there you have it! Today will be a nice day for a park, even though we’re starting off so cool. High pressure right over the region, has brought us clear skies and calm winds through the early morning hours. Temperatures have dropped a little lower than yesterday morning, because of these conditions. We bottomed out in the lower 50s. And, in fact, just after 6am we tied our RECORD LOW temperature for the day at 51-degrees. We will also be close to the record low HIGH temp this afternoon:

temps2

As we get a little heating beyond lunch, we once again expect a cumulus field to develop. The clouds won’t be quite as extensive as they were yesterday, and we do not expect any rain. Friday will be the same story… only a little warmer, with highs near 80.

Over the weekend, we continue to see at least a small chance of a few showers or thunderstorms over the Miami Valley. This would be most common in the afternoon hours, and highs will be in the low-mid 80s.

Jamie
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Record cool possible today…

July 16th, 2014 at 7:55 am by under Weather

With an unseasonably cool air mass in place, we were in record territory this morning. The Dayton International Airport hit 55 degrees, which was just shy of the record for today, 52, set back in 1903. And we could tie or set another couple of records over the next 24-hours. First, a record low HIGH temperature:

high

And if skies can clear out overnight… we could also get close to a record low by early Thursday morning:

low

But that should be it, as we get into a warming trend for the end of the week and weekend.

Rain chances are low through the first part of the day, and we will enjoy a lot of sun initially. During the afternoon, upper level energy will work over Ohio, and with heating we do expect a few showers to pop. Timing looks best after 3 or 4pm, and not everyone will see rain. High pressure moves in for Thursday and Friday, and as we warm we will enjoy a lot of sunshine. Over the weekend, highs will be closer to normal (84)… but the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms returns.

Jamie
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Feeling like Fall for a few days!

July 15th, 2014 at 8:23 am by under Weather

A cold front moved through the Miami Valley and now cooler and less humid air is moving in. Temperatures will be running below normal–by more than 10-degrees– for a few days:

temps

So while it’s mid-Summer… it will feel much more like Fall! We could even see temperatures reach record cool numbers… or at least close to it. Here are some of the cooler temperatures on record for the next few days, and then our forecast numbers:

Temps this week     Temps this week2

Today looks to be a dry day, with lots of sun and just a few clouds. On Wednesday, some upper level energy will swing across the area, and we could see a few spotty showers. The best chance will be in the afternoon, and not everyone will see rain:

500     forecast

We get back to dry weather and a lot of sunshine for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will slowly climb through the end of the week, and we should be back up near 80 for a high Friday afternoon. Rain chances again go up a bit for the weekend, but it doesn’t look like a wash-out either day.

I hope you enjoy this break from the heat and humidity!
Jamie
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Great finish to the week, with some changes over the weekend…

July 11th, 2014 at 8:31 am by under Weather

I hope you are enjoying the nice weather we’ve had in the past few days! Yesterday, I went with a group to Cox Arboretum & then on to Bill Yeck Park in Centerville. It was a beautiful afternoon!

Butterfly house at Cox Arboretum

  Butterfly house at Cox Arboretum

This nice lady let us pet her horse & feed it carrots!

This nice lady let us pet her horse & feed it carrots!

Today, we will likely end up at the pool, as the weather looks perfect for swimming:

POOL

Humidity will continue to be low today, but will come back up a bit for Saturday. The first part of the day looks nice and comfortable, but as we head into the afternoon, it might start to feel a little humid to you. There will be mostly dry weather Saturday, but we do have the slightest chance of a spotty shower late in the day. The best chance will be across the northern counties.

On Sunday, you will REALLY notice the increase in humidity. It will be quite muggy with rain likely, as a slow-moving front drops in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely, some producing heavy rain, strong winds, and even hail.

severe

We are already smack dab in the middle of an elevated risk for severe weather Sunday, so stay tuned to the forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the next two days!

Jamie
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Great weather through the start of the weekend…

July 10th, 2014 at 6:43 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

High pressure building is bringing some really great weather to the Miami Valley for the next three days or so:

temps

With light northerly winds in place, we will continue with low humidity and pleasantly warm temperatures. Today’s high will be similar to yesterday–near80-degrees. Some of our surrounding cities may only hit the upper 70s:

highs

We will be a bit warmer Friday into the weekend, with mid-80s forecast. Humidity will remain low until Saturday, when will see it rise during the afternoon hours. There is the slight chance of a spotty shower late in the day Saturday… but a much better chance of rain arrives on Sunday.

Warm weather will continue through Monday, but there are signs we will cool down significantly as we head through next week.

Nice weather = Short blogs :)

Jamie
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Humid with more thunderstorms…

July 8th, 2014 at 9:52 am by under Weather

The humidity continues to run high across the region, as you can see on this morning’s dew point map:

dew points

Any time these values are above 65 it feels uncomfortable, and when they’re up near 70… as they are today… it’s borderline oppressive. Thankfully, relief is on the way, as we turn less humid for the second half of the week!

But in the meantime, all the moisture in the air will be fuel for thunderstorms through the mid-afternoon hours:

forecast

Once again, heavy rain will be likely and we’ll have to watch for the potential for flash flooding. If you see water-covered roads, please remember to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown”. Not only can the water be dangerous, but it can damage your car!

We still have the potential for some stronger thunderstorms today. The greatest severe weather risk will be in areas to the southeast of Dayton, and the timing looks to be early afternoon:

severe

Strong winds and hail will be the main threats. We will keep you posted on-air and online. If you have weather photos to share with us, please do so when it is safe by using the ReportIt feature at wdtn.com!

Just a few showers on Wednesday, but mostly dry. And Thursday and Friday look great!

Jamie
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Increasing humidity and scattered thunderstorms…

July 7th, 2014 at 7:22 am by under Weather

What a fabulous holiday weekend! I really hope you had a wonderful time celebrating our country and our freedom. John Seibel and I had the honor of emceeing Kettering’s Rock-N-Boom at Delco Park–it was so much fun! Here are a few pictures from the event:

2     6

1     3

Neil Sedaka takes the stage!

Neil Sedaka takes the stage!

4

Bo Bice performed with Blood, Sweat & Tears… and then signed lots of autographs!

Now that the weekend is over, the weather is changing. Southwest winds will continue to pump in warm and humid air today, and dew points will be on the rise:

temps     Tds

With a cold front approaching from the northwest, our air mass will become increasingly unstable with daytime heating. Some of the storms that form may produce strong winds or hail, and the Storm Prediction Center has us in an elevated risk for severe weather:

severe

Heavy rain will also be a threat, so some localized flooding will be possible. It looks like the best chance for this will be after 1 or 2pm this afternoon… as storms increase in coverage. Here is what Futuretrac looks like as we head toward the late afternoon rush hour:

forecast

The rain chance continues tonight and through the day Tuesday, as the front lingers across the area. Tuesday’s severe weather threat will be highest to our southeast. Finally, after just a few showers possible on Wednesday, the humidity will drop as we dry out again.

We will keep you posted today on the severe weather threat–be sure to stay with us on-air and online!

Jamie
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Just a few more showers today, but a GREAT holiday weekend

July 3rd, 2014 at 6:00 am by under Weather

We have a much cooler and less-humid airmass in place! Our dew points were in the 60s and 70s earlier this week–true “air you can wear”! But now they’re in the 50s, which feels nice and refreshing. You can see the cooler air moving in, too, on the northwest winds:

TEMPS     DEW PTS

It may feel a little like fall to you today, as we only climb into the lower 70s for highs this afternoon. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds, and a lot of dry weather. But the clouds will thicken in spots from late morning into the early afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves through. This feature may kick off a few spotty light showers. But don’t worry, after 3 or 4pm we should return to dry weather. It still looks great for area fireworks tonight… and again Friday evening:

EVENT

Remember John and I will be co-emcees for the Kettering fireworks tonight. We will be introducing some great entertainment– Blood, Sweat & Tears, Bo Bice and Neil Sedaka will be there! This all starts at 6pm, with the fireworks just before 10pm. I hope to see you there!

While we have two cooler days today and Friday… things warm up a bit over the weekend. It looks like it will be a lovely weekend at the pool or one of our area lakes!

boat

In the tropics, we officially have the first hurricane of the Atlantic season! Arthur’s winds strengthened to 75mh early this morning, making it a category 1 storm. It is expected to move to the northeast, skimming the Outer Banks late Saturday night/early Friday morning:

Hurricane

Because I will be out late at the fireworks tonight, Tara Hastings is covering for me Friday morning. I hope you all have a wonderful 4th of July, and holiday weekend!

Jamie
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Another round of heavy rain overnight, now fairly quiet…

July 2nd, 2014 at 7:51 am by under Weather

Tuesday was another hot and humid day in the Miami Valley! I had the privilege of dining with Meteorologist Tara Hastings at The Greene for lunch… and then we sat outside while the kiddos splashed around in the fountain:

lunch

It was fairly sunny at the start, but by the time we were leaving… the clouds were getting thicker in spots. My daughter is suddenly obsessed with RAIN… and she always asks to check the radar lately. I mean ALWAYS. She definitely takes after me, because when I heard the thunder overnight, I went right to my phone to see what the radar looked like! What I saw–heavy rain hitting the southern portion of the Miami Valley. There were flood advisories issued for many of our southern counties as the torrential downpours occurred over a very short period of time. Here’s a look at Doppler estimated rainfall, and amounts called in by our Weathercheckers:

DOPPLER EST     WEATHERCHECKERS

You can see tons of lightning pictures captured as the storm rolled through here: LIGHTNING PHOTOS

With the front now east of us, winds will shift in from the west as the day goes on. THIS will tap into cooler and less humid air and draw it right into the Miami Valley:

TEMPS     DEW PTS

Upper level energy crosses the region tonight, so a few showers will be possible, but then we dry out after that. In fact, we have some pretty fabulous weather in store for the second half of the week and holiday weekend! Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 70s. Thursday will feature more clouds… and we can’t rule out an isolated shower early on… but the chance is very low. Skies clear out for Thursday night fireworks… and you might want to bring a sweatshirt or light jacket, as we drop into the 60s!

John Seibel and I will be co-emcees for the City of Kettering’s Rock-N-Boom celebration at Delco Park. We start at 6pm with the fun… and Blood, Sweat and Tears will perform! Fireworks start at 9:45pm. Hope you can come out for the evening! If you can’t make it Thursday, there are other communities setting off fireworks on Friday. You can get the full list here: WDTN FIREWORKS SCHEDULE

Over the weekend, temperatures will warm, and we will be in the low-mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances hold off until early next week.

In the tropics, we have our first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Arthur! This system is forecast to move along the over the next few days, and to potentially strengthen into a category 1 hurricane just off the coast of the Carolinas. Here’s the forecast path:

TRACK

Have a good one!
Jamie
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A hot and humid start to the week…

June 30th, 2014 at 6:55 am by under Weather

We had warm and humid weekend, peppered with a few showers and thunderstorms. Thankfully, we were able to get the Air Show in both Saturday and Sunday! I caught a glimpse of the Blue Angels on Sunday–I wasn’t at the airshow, but I attended a cookout up north and they flew RIGHT over us! Breathtaking!

Today, the humidity continues to be high, and while we are starting off dry… there is a 10-20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm as the day goes on. You can see how small the coverage would be if this does pan out… most stay dry:

forecast

There is a moderate risk for severe weather to our northwest this afternoon, as you can see below:

severe

While we don’t have a big severe threat today, we will continue to see the potential for heavy rainfall. Heat and humidity continue on Tuesday, as temperatures climb up near 90-degrees… and it will feel even hotter! Our heat index will be in the mid-upper 90s Tuesday afternoon.

A cold front will move through on Tuesday… with another on Wednesday. This will keep us with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. If storms do form on Tuesday, there is the potential a few could become severe. The SPC has us in an elevated risk for Tuesday afternoon and evening. The main threats will be strong winds and hail… with the potential for heavy rain, as well.

Wednesday won’t be AS hot OR humid, but we expect the cooling and comfortable trend to be fully in place for the second half of the week. It looks like it will be an amazing 4th of July weekend!

Jamie
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Another great day today, but some rain around over the weekend…

June 27th, 2014 at 8:03 am by under Weather

High pressure to our  northeast is bringing about a beautiful morning here in the Miami Valley, with mild temperatures and dry conditions:

temps     satrad

We have had a little haze or light fog. This will mix out over the next hour or so, and we expect a lot of sunshine during the afternoon. It looks like another fabulous pool day, with no threat of rain:

pool

The dry conditions stick around this evening–if you’re heading to Freedom’s Call Tattoo or the Air Show Parade, it will be warm:

event

Unfortunately, humidity and rain chances come up over the weekend. We will see a few scattered showers in the area on Saturday:

forecast

But not everyone will see rain–it will be scattered. Better coverage arrives on Sunday, with increasing rain chances. Here’s how it plays out for the Dayton Airshow:

event2

Temperatures will continue to warm early next week, and it looks like Monday could be the hottest day of the next seven… with highs reaching the lower 90s.

Jamie
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Still a shower chance today, but drying out for the 2nd half of the week!

June 25th, 2014 at 5:39 am by under Weather

We saw another round of heavy rainfall late in the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Here is a look at some of the totals our Weathercheckers measured… and Doppler estimates:

rainfall    dop est

A disturbance is moving through the Miami Valley this morning. It has kicked off a few early showers:

temps     ld2hd

Humidity is still extremely high, with dew points near 70-degrees. These values will drop a little this afternoon, but will hang in the mid-60s today… so it will still feel a little muggy. As upper level energy trails the surface low, we will keep a slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the forecast during the afternoon. But we expect any activity to clear out overnight.

Speaking of clearing, clouds may do just that tonight, too. With winds relatively light… and plenty of low level moisture… we could see a little patchy fog form. Visibility may be a bit lower in spots for the Thursday morning drive.

We expect a good deal of sunshine in the area Thursday afternoon, and THIS is when we will finally notice that drop in humidity. It will feel pleasantly warm, with highs in the lower 80s. Good weather continues on Friday, with just the slight chance of a spotty shower. We should have a decent stretch of days with quiet conditions… before rain chances increase for the second half of the weekend. They will stay at about a 30-40% chance through Tuesday. Temperatures also warm slowly between now and next week. We should be up near 90 by Monday!

Jamie
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