Jamie Jarosik

Beautiful Fall weather to continue!

October 25th, 2014 at 9:41 pm by under Weather

What a beautiful Autumn day here in the Miami Valley. Believe it or not, a cold front was crossing the region. While we started off with clouds, they quickly cleared out as you can see on our satellite imagery:

sat   sat 2

We enjoyed plenty of sunshine in the afternoon, which  boosted our temperatures significantly! We officially made it up to 75-degrees in Dayton. It was truly one of the best days of the season. Here are a few photos of the afternoon and evening:

leaves

My kids helped… well PLAYED while we did yard work :)

Mark Allan took a 40 mile bike ride to Caesar Creek!

Mark Allan took a 40 mile bike ride to Caesar Creek!

Tom Westendorf sent this beautiful shot of the contrails in the clear evening sky in Kettering.

Tom Westendorf sent this beautiful shot of the contrails in the clear evening sky in Kettering.

Now a slightly cooler air mass will build in for the second half of the weekend. We will dip into the lower 40s overnight, and Sunday’s highs will be in the mid-upper 60s. Still above normal, and still quite pleasant. Look for a bright blue sky and lots of sun to top off our great weekend!

On Monday, a warm front will lift through the area in the morning, and bring us another warm afternoon:

front

Then a stronger cold front arrives on Tuesday, with our next chance of rain. We will gradually turn cooler during the second half of the week, and unfortunately it looks chilly for Trick-or-Treaters (and high school football) on Halloween.

I hope you have been able to enjoy this awesome Autumn weather while it’s here!

Jamie
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Warmer today, but changes for the weekend…

October 17th, 2014 at 8:37 am by under Weather

We’re finally getting a dry day in the Miami Valley as we finish off the week! High pressure to our south will bring some sunshine this afternoon, and strong southerly winds… which will help warm temperatures up near 70 degrees after this cool start:

temps

The cold front to the west will move in tonight, bringing just the slightest chance of a spotty shower to the area. This won’t happen until after midnight, so no threat of rain for the high school football games! It will be breezy and cool for Operation Football, with increasing clouds.

Upper level energy crosses the region on Saturday, bringing a better chance of scattered showers. It will be quite a different forecast for the weekend, with much cooler weather around. Highs will be in the mid-50s, and with a stiff northwest wind Saturday, it will feel a little blustery!

forecast

Behind this system, we will really see temperatures drop! If skies can clear out Saturday night, we will tank into the 30s early Sunday morning. If you still have sensitive plants, you’ll want to protect them!

cold

The latest report from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources has many of our local parks at PEAK fall color this week! This may be THE weekend to get out and take in some of the beautiful shades of the season. The better weather day looks to be Sunday. While it will be cool, it won’t be as windy… and we expect more sunshine for the latter half of the weekend!

I am heading to the National Weather Association annual meeting next week, to get my weather geek on! ;) Keep an eye on Twitter for updates from #NWAS14! Tara will be with you on 2 News Today!

Enjoy your weekend!
Jamie
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Still unsettled for a couple days…

October 15th, 2014 at 6:45 am by under Weather

An upper low to our west will slowly cross the Miami Valley today into Thursday, keeping our weather unsettled:

satrad

While we’re starting off dry, we will see scattered showers develop as we head into the afternoon hours. It will not be as windy as yesterday, and it we won’t have the prolonged periods of rain, but on and off showers can be expected:

forecast

With the upper low and unsettled weather, it will be a cooler day, with highs in the lower 60s. A set-up like this sometimes causes “cold air funnels” to develop. These are funnel clouds visible in the sky… but they rarely touch down. The National Weather Service does not issue warnings for cold air funnels, but they can look threatening. In the past, I know some communities have sounded their outdoor weather sirens upon the seeing these ominous features, so just be aware of that. If you see one, snap a picture and send to ReportIt@wdtn.com or use the ReportIt feature at www.wdtn.com to upload your photo!

The upper low will be shifting off to our east on Thursday, but we will still have the chance of a few showers, as we remain mild. Highs will again be in the lower 60s. We do expect improvement for the end of the week–Friday looks awesome! Partly sunny, dry and highs into the upper 60s!

Jamie
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Right back into an unsettled pattern this week…

October 13th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

A slow-moving storm system will keep the Miami Valley with the chance of rain each day this week. Today, a warm front will move into the area, and with breezy southerly winds, temperatures will soar:

temps    HIGHS

Scattered showers, even a few thunderstorms will be most likely during the late morning/early afternoon hours… but we really could see a shower at any time of the day. The rain chances, however, will be HIGHEST on Tuesday as a strong cold front moves in:

forecast

We expect a decent chance of rain all day long, with heavy downpours possible. If storms line up just right, there will be the potential for “training” storms… and localized flooding. There is a minimal severe weather risk Tuesday, although a few stronger wind gusts are possible.

A closed low will be slow to move over the area Wednesday and Thursday. This will keep us with a 30-40% chance of mainly afternoon showers, and slightly lower temperatures:

500

Right now, it looks like the low lifts out just in time for the upcoming weekend. We should return to dry weather by Friday!

Jamie
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One more gloomy day before a better weekend…

October 10th, 2014 at 7:58 am by under Weather

A front has been stalled south of the Miami Valley… keeping the clouds and on and off showers around. And it’s STILL there today:

temps

A wave of low pressure will move along the front, pushing it a little farther north this afternoon and evening.  So rain becomes more likely as the day goes on:

forecast

The best chance of rain will be along and south of I-70, although a few spotty showers will even be possible north of this. Rain will continue to be likely through the evening… so that means a not-so-pleasant Friday night football experience!

event

But overnight, rain will taper off late… and we have a mostly DRY weekend forecast! Saturday will still be cool with highs in the upper 50s, but with some sun it will at least feel pleasantly cool. Sunday will be a little warmer, as we climb back into the lower 60s. And Sunday is trending drier, too, so just the slight chance of a shower late in the day.

Rain chances increase significantly early next week as a strong cold front moves our way. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s for highs Monday and Tuesday ahead of the system… but drop off again mid-week.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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Today… similar to Monday. Wednesday… improvement.

October 7th, 2014 at 8:06 am by under Weather

Another disturbance is moving into the Miami Valley today! This will keep us with the chance for scattered showers and even a rumble or two of thunder. Yesterday, we had mainly on and off showers… with a few thunderstorms that developed late in the day. These dumped some heavier rain and even pea-sized hail:

hail    hail 2

This could be possible again this afternoon and early evening. The Dayton International Airport only picked up 0.04″ of rain, but other locations saw significantly more than that:

rain

This will be the nature of things again today, because the showers will be scattered. You can see the hit-and-miss nature of the system on our Futuretrac forecast model, valid for 5pm:

forecast

Rain chances die down tonight, and the clouds will break up, too. As we head toward Wednesday morning, a Total Lunar Eclipse will occur! This happens when the moon passes through the Earth’s shadow, as seen on the graphic below:

eclipse

Make sure you have a clear view to the west if you are going to check it out tomorrow morning… as the moon will be low in the sky, near the horizon. Here is more on the eclipse– what you can expect and when: LUNAR ECLIPSE.

We expect a lot of sunshine on Wednesday, as high pressure returns to the area. Highs will be close to normal, in the mid-60s, and right now it looks like the only day this week with NO chance of rain. Another disturbance moves in later in the day Thursday, and rain chances stay up Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures don’t fluctuate very much day to day right through the end of the week.

Jamie
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Scattered showers… windy… then much colder

October 3rd, 2014 at 9:50 am by under Weather

It was an unseasonably warm summer-like day on Thursday! Check out the stats:

almanac

We were fairly close to the record high for the day, thanks to sunshine and southerly winds. And, if you stepped outside early this morning, it probably felt like a nice Spring day. We had temperatures near 70 degrees all morning long:

TEMPS

This nice mild weather will NOT last. We are already seeing signs of change, with scattered showers impacting the area. You can check Live Doppler 2HD at any time.

While we will have a few breaks in the rain today, the potential for a shower will be there at any time… with the slight chance of a rumble of thunder. You can see the scattered nature of the rain on Futuretrac for this afternoon:

FORECAST

While it’s been breezy this morning, it will become windy if not gusty as the cold front comes through around the mid-afternoon hours. Winds will be up near 25-30mph. If you are heading out to a high school football game this evening, be sure to wear something warm, and perhaps have an umbrella on hand!

Saturday will start off dry, but we can’t rule out a spotty shower in the afternoon. The best chance will be across the northern counties. BUT the big story will be how COLD it will be this weekend!

chilly

Saturday’s high temp will only reach 52, and it will be breezy… so expect a chilly day ahead. Sunday will still be cool, as we climb into the upper 50s. This huge drop in temperature will definitely make it feel more like Fall!

Enjoy your weekend!
Jamie
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Warm today, then the bottom drops out!

October 2nd, 2014 at 7:29 am by under Weather

We start off partly cloudy this morning… with dry conditions across the Miami Valley. I am keeping an eye to the west, where we currently have an area of rain/thunder:

RADAR

This will continue to weaken as it heads our way, but if any of it holds together, we may see a few showers in our northwestern counties. The time frame would be late morning/early afternoon if it happens. Otherwise, what a warm day it will be! We are forecasting highs in the lower 80s. This will be aided by a southerly flow and some afternoon sunshine. This could actually be one of our last 80-degree days of the year, if not THE last. A strong cold front moves in for Friday bringing a quick end to the summer-like warmth. The first sign of change will be late tonight, as showers and thunderstorms develop. They will be in full swing early Friday, so most of the Miami Valley will deal with a wet morning commute:

FORECAST

The rain chance continues as we head into the afternoon, any thunderstorm will have the potential to produce heavy rain or gusty winds:

FORECAST 2

Friday’s highs will be near 70-degrees… so about 10-degrees lower than today, but still near normal. Take a look at how the bottom drops out for the weekend!

TEMPS

Overnight lows Sunday could dip into the upper 30s! Hopefully the heat is working!

Jamie
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Two nice days before a big change…

October 1st, 2014 at 9:35 am by under Weather

Fog settled in the Miami Valley this morning, and visibility was down near a quarter of a mile in many locations this morning. Here are a few dense fog pictures from our networks of cameras:

fog  fog 2

fog 3

The fog and low clouds will break up as we head into the afternoon. We should end up mostly sunny mid-late day and hit highs in the lower 70s. Thursday will be a warmer day, with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s ahead of a cold front. That front will bring big changes for the end of the week and the weekend. The chance of rain will be increasing Thursday night and will remain high Friday:

FORECAST

Friday will be a rainy (at times), breezy and cooler day. And then we get MUCH cooler for the weekend! Oh my–Saturday’s high is only going to be in the mid-50s!

Jamie
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Nice weather to continue…

September 29th, 2014 at 9:28 am by under Weather

We had a disturbance pass just south of the area overnight, and it brought a few clouds early this morning… but any showers stayed south and east of us. See how quickly the clouds cleared out this morning:

SATRAD     SATRAD2

Now high pressure builds in for the rest of the day. This will bring another bright afternoon, with tons of sun and warm temperatures. We continue to run about 10-degrees above normal, and expect to hit 80-degrees again today. There is a cold front well off to the northwest, which will arrive on Tuesday:

FORECAST

This doesn’t have a whole lot of moisture with it, and it’s a weak front… so a sprinkle or light shower is about all we can hope for. Unfortunately, it won’t quite be the beneficial rain we need… and the best chance of seeing any at all will be across the northern half of the Miami Valley.

Today will be our eighth straight DRY day… and most of us will have to wait until the second half of the week to pick up measurable rainfall. A stronger front arrives Thursday night into Friday morning, and it brings the better chance of rain. It will also bring in more fall-like weather… and next weekend it looks a lot cooler.

Jamie
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Quiet weather continues

September 25th, 2014 at 8:38 am by under Weather

Fabulous fall weather continues across the region! What a week it’s been… and it keeps getting slightly warmer each day. Yesterday we were back above normal:

almanac

And today we expect to hit 80-degrees, with continued sunshine. More of the same for Friday and the weekend, as we expect highs each day to be in the lower 80s… with tons of sun… and dry conditions. Perfect weather for the numerous fall festivals going on this weekend! There is a lot to do!

event

Our own Tara Hastings is MC for the Pretzel Festival in Germantown this weekend, and she’s bringing the great weather with her! Oktoberfest at the DAI, the Tipp City Mum Festival, Aullwood Apple Fest, AND the Chocolate Festival are all going to be in full swing this weekend. I will be at the Chocolate Festival on Saturday, judging the chocolate recipe contest! Tough gig, I know! ;)

We need some rain, but it’s not showing up in the forecast. Besides the slightest chance of a shower Monday or Tuesday, we will continue with dry conditions.

Jamie
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Quiet week of fabulous fall weather

September 23rd, 2014 at 9:55 am by under Weather

Fall officially began last night at 10:29pm. So this being the first full day of Fall, it is fitting that it FEELS like it. Here’s a look at our morning low temperatures:

TEMPS

Today will feature wall-to-wall sunshine across the region. We have high pressure in control, and it’s going to be with us all week! We expect little change in the weather day-to-day, besides a slow warming trend. We will see highs near 70 today, into the mid-70s on Wednesday, and upper-70s by the end of the week. This coming weekend looks fantastic, with highs near 80-degrees and continued sunshine and dry weather.

The bright afternoons and cool nights help to provide some great fall color. You may have already noticed a few trees with changing leaves! This will slowly continue over the next few weeks. The decreasing sunlight is really what makes the leaves turn… and most of the Miami Valley won’t reach PEAK fall color until mid-October:

fall

The only problem is, we need a little rain every few days, as we are below normal for the month and year:

almanac

This deficit will only increase over the next several days… keep watering what you want to keep alive!

Jamie
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Slow warming trend into the weekend…

September 18th, 2014 at 6:43 am by under Weather

High pressure continues to dominate the region, bringing another cool start to the day. With the clear skies and light winds overnight, we are once again going to start the day with some fog or low clouds. This will mix out through late morning, and the sun will be out this afternoon. Today starts a warming trend, which will continue into the first part of the weekend:

temp trend

We will remain dry through this time, as well. Changes arrive with a cold front on Sunday:

sfc

This will bring in scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Miami Valley. The image above is the GFS model forecast for 8am. So, right now it looks like the first half of the day is when we will be most likely to see rain. Drier conditions should build back in for the afternoon and evening hours. Of course, we then cool off behind this front for next week!

Jamie
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Showers possible today/tonight, then pleasant all week…

September 15th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

We are starting the day with mostly clear skies and cool temperatures, as high pressure is still in control:

TEMPS

But there are clouds to the west that will be moving in across the Miami Valley as the day goes on. There are even some showers out that way:

SATRAD

Our rain chances go up later in the day. First, across the northwestern counties mid-late afternoon… and then the rest of the Miami Valley late afternoon-evening. Rain chances linger overnight as the front moves through:

FORECAST

Highs will be coolest across those northern counties today–reaching the upper 60s. In the central and southern Miami Valley, we should climb up near 70-degrees. Behind the front, slightly cooler air will move in for Tuesday, with highs in the 60s:

HIGHS

Tuesday afternoon will be the coolest of the week, and then we will see some really pleasant weather! Lots of sun Wed-Fri, with highs in the lower 70s… and overnight lows in the upper 40s.

Jamie
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A fall-like stretch through the weekend…

September 11th, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

A strong cold front brought heavy rain to parts of the Miami Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Here are a look at some of the totals from our Weathercheckers and Doppler estimates:

rain    doppler est

Now, cooler air is moving in on northwest winds behind the front:

TEMPS

Highs today will only be near 70 degrees, and it will get slightly cooler each day through Saturday:

FRIDAY: 69
SATURDAY: 66

A real taste of fall! Late Friday night into Saturday morning would be our next chance for a few showers. Not everyone will see rain during this time, as the chance is fairly low at 20%. Otherwise, most of the weekend will be dry. Next week we will start a slow warming trend, which takes us back into the low and mid 70s as the week goes on!

Have a great weekend!

Jamie
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Thunderstorms today, then much cooler…

September 10th, 2014 at 9:25 am by under Weather

A strengthening storm system makes it’s way towards the Miami Valley today, and southerly winds ahead of it will continue to keep us warm:

TEMPS

The humidity is also going up… as dew points are climbing into the mid and upper 60s. As we heat up this afternoon, we will see the potential for showers and thunderstorms. During the early afternoon, we could see rain in the northwest counties, with the slight chance of something isolated popping up farther south and east. Rain chances through early afternoon look something like this:

POPS

Then, after 4 or 5pm, the rain chances go up area-wide. Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible late today into tonight:

forecast

And the thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rain and even strong wind. We have an elevated flooding threat, with a Flood Watch that goes in to effect at 4pm and continues through Thursday morning for all of the Miami Valley. There is also an elevated severe weather threat. We will be most at risk during the evening and overnight, as well:

svr

Rain will taper off Thursday morning, and as we dry out, cooler air will be spilling into the region! Take a look at highs tomorrow:

HIGHS

And over the weekend, we won’t get out of the 60s! Football weather, for sure!

Jamie
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Fog… to sun… to thunderstorms.

September 9th, 2014 at 8:26 am by under Weather

We started off very foggy in spots this morning! A Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10am for low visibility–in some cases,  below a quarter-mile. Here are some foggy images:

kettering     beavercreek

Where it wasn’t foggy, it was nice and clear. Great viewing for the full moon, called the full Harvest moon… because it’s the closest full moon to autumn. Mix 107.7′s Jeff Stevens took this Harvest moon selfie early this morning:

tipp city

You can barely make out the silhouette of his head in the dark! :) Too funny!

By late morning, the fog will be lifting out, and we will see some sun during the afternoon hours. A southerly flow develops today, and this will help in a slow warming trend. Highs yesterday topped out right at the normal 79-degrees… and today we should push into the lower 80s. Southerly winds strengthen on Wednesday, and this will also draw moisture back into the Miami Valley. As dew points increase, it will start to feel much more humid. Highs Wednesday will reach the mid-80s.

A strong cold front will be moving our way Wednesday. In the warm and unstable airmass out ahead of it, we could see a few thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. But a better chance comes in the evening and overnight as the front moves through. Some of these could be severe:

svr risk    svr

We will keep you posted on any watches or warnings for the area. Rain and/or thunderstorms will be around early Thursday, but then we will dry out in the afternoon as cooler air builds in. Highs will only be near 70 on Thursday and Friday… and we likely won’t get out of the 60s over the weekend! And while fall-like temperatures are coming… we are already seeing visual signs of the change of seasons. Check out the fall color one of our viewers spotted in New Carlisle:

new carlisle

If you would ever like to share photos with us, just go to www.wdtn.com and use the “Report It” feature!

Jamie
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A slow warming trend through mid-week…

September 8th, 2014 at 6:29 am by under Weather

High pressure is off to our east, and we will once again have a delightful day here in the Miami Valley! It is a cool morning, however… and you may want a light jacket out the door:

TEMPS

But you won’t need it later this afternoon! High temperatures will be a few degrees higher than Sunday, as we make a run at 80-degrees. Plenty of sunshine will rule, and we will continue with dry conditions. A slow warming trend will ensue, and we expect lower 80s on Tuesday, and mid-80s on Wednesday. A strong cold front arrives Wednesday night, this will be our next chance for rain:

SFC

The chance will begin as early as Wednesday evening, and continue overnight. These storms have the potential to be strong to severe; we are already included in the SPC’s Elevated Risk area:

SVR

Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms. We will continue to watch the developing situation. And temperatures will take a big DROP after the cold front moves through. While we’ll see highs in the 80s through the first half of the week, we will end it with highs only in the 60s!

Jamie
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One more hot & humid day, then big changes for the weekend…

September 5th, 2014 at 7:12 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

This morning is a muggy one! We sit in the “warm sector” of a storm system; high pressure is to our east, and there is a cold front to the west, with a southerly flow in between:

SURFACE MAP

These conditions, combined with afternoon sun, will allow highs to approach 90-degrees again (Thursday’s high was 89). But this will be our last HOT day for awhile! The cold front moves in bringing MUCH cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. It’s also bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

As we heat up this afternoon, we may see a few thunderstorms develop. This would most likely occur in the northwestern Miami Valley, and if it does pan out… some of them could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has these counties in an Elevated Risk for severe weather:

SEVERE

Gusty winds and marginally severe sized hail will be the  main concerns, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. This could impact Friday night high school football games, so be sure you stay connected to what’s happening. A great way to do that is to use your smart phone to check out LIVE DOPPLER 2HD when you’re out and about! The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase area-wide overnight and into Saturday morning. While we will likely start the weekend wet, it looks like we’ll dry out Saturday afternoon. Great news, as a lot is going on this weekend! Take a look at how comfortable it will be at our area festivals:

event

Feeling a little like fall, for sure! The Italian and Greek Festivals are also going on… so take your pick & enjoy!
Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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Morning fog, afternoon sun. Nice & warm today!

September 3rd, 2014 at 5:44 am by under Weather

We are starting the day with a Dense Fog Advisory for the counties in grey:

FOG

This is in effect until 9am. The overnight and early morning conditions have been perfect for fog formation. Clear skies, light winds, and plenty of low level moisture from the heavy rain we saw yesterday. You can see how the heaviest fell across the southern counties, where we’re seeing the thickest fog this AM:

rain

And the three-day total from Jamestown may make you do a double-take:

RAIN SINGLE

… especially if you live in one of the spots that didn’t get much over the weekend. High pressure is with us for the next two days, so we expect mostly dry conditions during this time. We will slowly heat up, with mid-80s for highs today, and then upper 80s Thursday and Friday. On Friday, rain chances increase in the late afternoon and evening. And as a cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning, rain chances will be highest. This cold front will also bring in much cooler weather for the weekend and early next week.

Jamie
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