Jamie Jarosik

A nice finish to the week, but rain returns soon…

April 24th, 2015 at 7:04 am by under Weather

High pressure is sitting right over us this morning, and with clear skies and light winds… it’s brought about the perfect conditions for frost to form:

temps      temps2

We will see plenty of sunshine through the day, and that will help to warm us. Winds will not be as strong, and will be variable… turning more southerly later in the day. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s across the northern Miami Valley, and near 60-degrees in the Dayton area. Enjoy this nice afternoon, because things will be changing for the start of the weekend.

An area of low pressure to our west will move toward the Miami Valley, bringing in a good chance of rain. We may see a few showers late tonight, but a better chance of periods of rain will be through the day Saturday:

forecast

It will be breezy and much cooler with the rain around, with highs only reaching the lower 50s. Conditions improve for Sunday… so that is the day to plan the yard work! After the slight chance of an early morning shower, we will dry out for the afternoon. The sun will come out, too, as highs once again climb up near 60-degrees.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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Cold mornings, cool afternoons…

April 23rd, 2015 at 8:29 am by under Weather

We’re starting the day with some frost out across the Miami Valley. Temperatures dropped very close to freezing this morning:

temps

I even saw a couple of our outlying spots dip into the 20s! It was 29 for awhile at WPAFB and also up in Urbana. We will enjoy a lot of sunshine today, with some clouds creeping in from the northeast by mid-afternoon… as we become partly sunny in spots. Tonight/Friday morning, we expect another round of frost and freezing temperatures. In fact, conditions are even more favorable for frost formation because not only will we have clear skies… but  also lighter winds. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a freeze warning for most of the Miami Valley:

warn

Protect any less-hearty plants from frost and freezing temperatures tonight by either covering them up or bringing them in if they are potted. Friday afternoon will once again be bright, with lots of sun. Highs will climb up near 60 degrees, and it won’t be as windy! So it will end up being a pretty nice finish to the week.

Things change, however, over the weekend! A storm system will move in from the southwest, bringing the chance for rain:

SFC

With clouds around and showers at times, Saturday will end up being a cooler day. Expect highs to only reach the lower 50s, which will be more than 10-degrees below normal. As we dry out on Sunday… we should be a bit milder. Highs near 60, with partly sunny skies.

Jamie
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Showers end, cooler and windy…

April 22nd, 2015 at 6:15 am by under Weather

Tuesday was a gusty day here in the Miami Valley! Here is a look at our peak wind gusts:

wind map     wind list

The strong area of low pressure that helped cause these strong winds is still nearby, so expect another windy day. We will see sustained winds between 15 and 25 mph, and higher gusts. But the gusts won’t be quite as strong as  yesterday… generally in the 30 to 35 mph range. We started the day with rain, as you can see on the morning Live Doppler 2HD image:

ld2hd

But it won’t last all day. We expect the rain to move on out of here through late morning. So we will dry out for a majority of the day, and we should even see the sun this afternoon! Highs will be cooler, however, only topping out in the lower 50s to the south and upper 40s in our northern counties (this is about 10-15 degrees below normal).

The cooler air moving in today will bring the potential for scattered frost the next two nights… but conditions will be a little more favorable Thursday night:

frost

It is a good idea to protect or bring in  your sensitive plants both nights, as some of our outlying communities will likely drop below freezing. Beyond a couple of cold mornings, the afternoons will experience a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. Dry conditions will be the rule, with the next chance of rain arriving on Saturday.

Jamie
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Cooler, windy and a little unsettled…

April 20th, 2015 at 7:35 am by under Weather

A large area of low pressure has set up camp across the Great Lakes as we start a new week:

500

This will keep us cooler and unsettled over the next few days. Today we have the best chance at seeing some scattered showers–pretty much at any time:

forecast      forecast 2

And we will also be quite windy, with gusts to 35mph possible. This cold front comes through today…

temps

…and even cooler air will move into the region. Tonight’s low dips into the lower 40s, and with the breeze… it will feel more like the 30s.  Tuesday, it looks like windy conditions will continue, with highs only reaching the upper 50s. We will still see the chance for a few showers later in the day, and that chance will linger (especially across the southern counties) through early Wednesday. Most of Wednesday afternoon will be dry, and Thursday also looks like a quiet day. Although, the cool temps will continue,with highs in the mid-upper 50s all week!

Jamie
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Morning fog… then sunshine and pleasant weather ahead!

April 17th, 2015 at 7:46 am by under Weather

We saw fog thicken over the Miami Valley this morning, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10am:

fog

We expect improving conditions during the mid-to-late morning means a lot of afternoon sun! Temperatures will also be a little warmer, with highs getting back into the 70s. AND we have a few days of this… so enjoy…

trend

It looks like mostly sunny conditions will continue on Saturday. If you have things to do outside, THIS IS YOUR DAY! We may see a few clouds roll in late in the day, with increasing clouds at night. Then the next system moves in from the southwest for Sunday:

forecast

A warm front will lift into the Miami Valley on Sunday. Right now, it looks like we may stay dry until a least mid-morning, with the rain spreading in after 9am. At this time, widespread severe weather is not expected… but the rain chance will continue Sunday night and into Monday as the cold front then swings through. That front will usher in cooler weather for next week. We expect highs in the lower 60s, and lows in the lower 40s.

Jamie
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Unsettled today then the payoff…

April 16th, 2015 at 5:57 am by under Weather

Today, we return to unsettled weather in the Miami Valley. We don’t expect a wash out, but at any time today… we could have showers in the area. Here is Futuretrac showing several different periods today, and you can see how scattered the rain will be:

forecast forecast2 forecast3

Expect lots of clouds, and near-normal highs in the low to mid 60s today. It will continue to be breezy, with the southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Showers taper off overnight, and we’ll get back to dry conditions for the end of the week.

Friday will start off with lots of clouds in the morning, but the sun returns for the afternoon! It looks quite nice, as we warm into the lower 70s. Saturday looks great, too, with lots of sun through about mid-day, then increasing clouds. Saturday will definitely be the nicer of the two weekend days, with dry conditions and highs in the mid 70s. Rain returns for Sunday, and may even linger into Monday. Temperatures still look cooler as we head into next week.

Jamie
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Front south, clouds linger…

April 14th, 2015 at 8:07 am by under Weather

We had a beautiful start to the week… for most of Monday, anyway. A cold front moved into the northwest counties, and brought some showers by mid-afternoon. That line then progressed south and reached the Dayton area after 5 or 6pm. We saw rain and wind… and cooler air moved in. This morning, the front is stalled to our south:

temps

You can see an area of low pressure has developed and is lifting right along the boundary. That will keep the clouds in place across the Miami Valley today. There’s a lot of rain to our south, near the front:

satrad

There is maybe a 10% chance a shower will graze the far southern part of Butler, Warren or Clinton counties… otherwise it will be a dry day.

forecast

It will also be a COOLER day! We pushed very close to 80 yesterday afternoon… so today’s mid-60s will feel a lot cooler, especially with less sun and a good breeze going.

High pressure builds in for tonight and Wednesday, keeping us dry and actually clearing the clouds out. We’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies for mid-week. Temperatures won’t change much day-to-day, with highs in the mid-upper 60s right through the weekend. There are signs we’ll turn a little cooler next week.

Jamie
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One more day with a good severe weather threat

April 9th, 2015 at 7:50 am by under Weather

Several rounds of thunderstorms hit the Miami Valley Wednesday, and we picked up some record rainfall:

rain

We also had multiple severe thunderstorm warnings because of strong wind and the possibility of large hail. While we did have many hail reports, most of the hail was sub-severe in size (criteria is 1″ or larger). Some of the wind reports were up at 60 mph or higher… and we had scattered wind damage reported across the southern half of the area:

reports

Little has changed on our surface map over the past 24-hours. We still have a stationary front in the area, and tons of moisture, too. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect for all of the Miami Valley through Friday morning. The front lifts north as a warm front today, allowing a strong southerly flow to develop. We will hit highs in the upper 70s, so it will be a breezy but warmer afternoon. With upper level waves moving through today, we expect more showers and thunderstorms to develop. The highest likelihood of rain will be after 11 am… so heading toward lunchtime and beyond:

forecast

Anything that gets going today will have the potential to reach severe limits. Here is our severe weather outlook:

spc          threat

While activity this afternoon with be scattered, we expect a line of thunderstorms to develop to our west and then race through the Miami Valley overnight. This squall line could also bring severe weather, with wind damage and even isolated tornadoes. We will keep you posted on any watches or warnings throughout the day, on air and online at wdtn.com.

Stay safe!
Jamie
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Mild with more showers and thunderstorms…

April 8th, 2015 at 7:38 am by under Weather

We still have that pesky stationary front in the region, with waves of low pressure that continue to move through right along that boundary:

temps

That low is kicking off a decent cluster of thunderstorms well off to our west, but it’s heading our way:

ld2hd

We expect this to move into the area during the late morning/early afternoon. The potential will be there for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, and some of them could be on the strong side. We are included in an elevated risk for severe weather today:

severe

Here are the main threats from any storm that gets going today:

severe2

While wide spread flooding is not expected, some localized flash flooding could occur… so stay weather aware today! It, at least, will be mild, with highs climbing into the mid-70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a repeat performance, with highs in the 70s and on and off showers and thunderstorms. Thursday will also feature an elevated risk for severe weather, especially late in the day. A cold front comes through early Friday morning, bringing an end to the active weather pattern as we finish the week and head into the weekend!

Jamie
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Active week with periods of showers and thunderstorms…

April 7th, 2015 at 7:04 am by under Weather

Hello, Bloggers… I am back from vacation, and we have a lot to talk about weather-wise this week! A frontal boundary is stalled across the Miami Valley, and it is going to keep us active all week long:

temps

The front should lay across the northern portion of the viewing area today, keeping things cooler up that way. Celina will only see a high near 60-degrees… while the southern counties will be closer to 70 this afternoon. But everyone has a good chance of rain. You can see how unsettled it’s been already this morning:

satrad

We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, with heavier downpours likely. But there will be some breaks where you can get out an enjoy a little dry time. The front will drift into the southern counties tonight, but lift back north on Wednesday. This will allow a good southerly flow to develop and help temperatures rise over the next few days:

trend

BUT we stay active. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Friday morning. That is when a cold front will sweep through the area, bringing big changes. Not only will we dry out, but the sun will come out in full just in time for the weekend. Right now both Saturday and Sunday are looking great!

Jamie
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Feeling more like winter for a couple days…

March 27th, 2015 at 8:53 am by under Weather

Northerly winds will continue today, keeping temperatures well below normal. Morning temps are in the 20s, and highs will only be in the mid-30s.

500

We are in an upper trough… so not only will we be cold, but clouds will fill in for parts of this afternoon. AND we couldn’t rule out a flurry or light snow shower. We don’t expect any accumulation, and high pressure will build in overnight, helping to clear out the clouds. This morning, the high is northwest of us, and you can see the cold air in place around it:

temps

We will be close to that cold Saturday morning, as the high moves in:

lows

And during the afternoon, the high will bring a good deal of sunshine to the area… but it will still be cold! Highs once again will be stuck in the 30s. We will see some rebound on Sunday. The jet stream will lift north, allowing warmer air into the Miami Valley:

500 2

Highs will push into the lower 50s, closer to normal. Sunday will start with sun, but clouds move in during the afternoon. There is also the slight chance of a few showers late in the day… but most of the day will be dry. Going through next week, we expect temperatures to be at or above normal, so there is something to look forward to!

I am off on Spring Break next week, and @MetTaraHastings will be holding down the forecast center in the morning. I hope you have a good one!

Jamie
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Rainy today and a colder stretch of weather is here…

March 26th, 2015 at 7:40 am by under Weather

A cold front moved through the Miami Valley, and now sits off to our south. Our winds have shifted in from the north and northwest, and this is helping to draw in colder air this morning:

temps

As the cold air continues to move in, temperatures will struggle this afternoon. We expect to hold steady in the low 40s all day–about 20-degrees cooler than yesterday’s high of 61! Notice the wave of low pressure on the surface map. That is moving right along the boundary, and helping to produce the rain we’ve been dealing with this morning:

satrad

Rain will fall steady through lunch, and then will become more scattered during the afternoon hours. We couldn’t rule out some wet snow mixing in across some of our northern counties… if you live up in Mercer, Auglaize, northern Darke, Shelby or Logan counties… don’t be surprised if you see some snowflakes today! We don’t expect any accumulation.

Tonight, we will dry out across the region, but it’s going to be COLD! Low temperatures drop down into the mid-20s, so watch for some slick spots developing overnight. On Friday, we’ll start the day with some sunshine, but clouds will fill back in as cold air continues to move into the region during the afternoon. A few scattered snow showers will be possible later in the day, again, with minimal accumulation. Highs only reach the mid-30s, however, so it will continue to be very cold!

Saturday will be another cold day, but the sun will be out. On Sunday, temperatures start to moderate and we’ll push into the 50s during the afternoon, and be fairly close to normal highs.

Jamie
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Warmer Wednesday… but it doesn’t last!

March 25th, 2015 at 7:46 am by under Weather

An area of low pressure to our west is pushing a warm front into the Miami Valley this morning:

temps

So as precipitation developed and moved through, it has been warm enough to see RAIN vs. any wintry precip. We have even seen some thunderstorms this morning… it’s a very Spring-like start to the day! The rain won’t last all day, and in fact, we expect most to be dry as we head beyond 8 am. The afternoon will be breezy and mild, and the sun will eventually come out. High temperatures climb well above normal:

highs

Enjoy it while you can! The cold front will eventually move through, and temperatures will drop. Take a look at the trend for the next few days:

trend

An area of low pressure will move along the front Thursday, bringing more rain to the area. And on Friday, as the cold air continues to advance in… we will be cold enough for scattered snow showers through the day. Any accumulation will be light. Saturday will continue to be cold, with morning temperatures in the upper teens to right around 20, and afternoon highs in the upper 30s.

Jamie
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Showers late today, warmer Wednesday…

March 24th, 2015 at 6:44 am by under Weather

We had snow and mixed precipitation affect the Miami Valley on Monday. Welcome to the first week of Spring, right?! The northern counties, as expected, picked up the most snow. The storm came through a little more potent  and we had some enhanced snow totals across the far north:

snow

Today, we are back to dry conditions. Clouds will be around through a good part of the day, but most of it will be dry. Temperatures will climb into the mid-40s this afternoon, after a cold start in the 20s. Here is the morning surface map… you can see a warm front south of us:

temps

That will lift into the area and bring the chance of showers back by late afternoon and evening. Initially, the showers will move into the south/southwestern counties late today:

forecast

And then spread area-wide during the evening and overnight:

forecast2

We could even hear some thunder tonight, and it will be breezy. As the southerly winds increase, temperatures will not drop off much at all, and we will have lows in the lower 40s. Expect a wet Wednesday morning, with showers around for the drive to work:

forecast3

But we will dry out in the afternoon, and it will end up being the warmest day of the week! It will become partly sunny, quite breezy… and we will see a high near 65-degrees! Of course it doesn’t last… a strong cold front brings more rain and thunder Wednesday night into Thursday… along with chilly temperatures.

Jamie
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A very active weather week ahead…

March 23rd, 2015 at 10:03 am by under Weather

After a really  nice weekend across the Miami Valley, we are getting back into an active weather pattern. This morning, we’ve seen clouds increasing as a disturbance to the west is moving eastward:

temps     satrad

Those showers to the northwest are going to head our way, too. Yes, some will see snow… and some will see accumulation. This is most likely to start across the northern counties as we head towards lunchtime, and then spread south through the afternoon. If you live along/north of I-70, you stand the best chance at staying all snow today… with some mixing possible as you travel along and south of I-70. Here is Futuretrac’s forecast for 3pm today:

forecast

Those that stay snow, will see the highest snow totals. This is what it looks like now:

snow

It’s not really what you want to see during the first week of Spring! But we will actually see a wide range of weather this week… take a look at the checklist:

checklist

There is the chance of showers pretty much each day of the week, but we will at least have a decent warm-up on Wednesday. Highs will get into the upper 60s with breezy conditions!

Jamie
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Cloudy and cool today, with rain arriving this evening…

March 19th, 2015 at 8:06 am by under Weather

High pressure north of the Miami Valley will keep most of us dry today. A storm system well to our south is already spreading clouds into the region, and they will be around through the afternoon, but the showers will stay south:

ld2hd

Cloudy and cool will be the rule, with highs reaching near normal values close to 50-degrees. Rain will spread in as we head toward late afternoon in the far south… and evening in the Dayton area. Here is how Futuretrac times it out…

5pm… rain moving in to the far southern counties:
forecast

7pm… rain moving into the Dayton area, mainly still south of I-70:
forecast2

11pm… rain falling in most of the Miami Valley:
forecast3

Everyone will see rain overnight, and the far northern counties could even see some wet snowflakes mixing in. We do not expect to see any snow accumulation. Rain will continue through Friday morning, so streets will be wet for the last morning rush of the week. We dry out and the clouds break up for Friday afternoon, and once again our highs will be right around normal. Something EXCITING happens on Friday… that we’ve all been waiting for!

spring

And for the first FULL day of Spring on Saturday… it will FEEL like Spring! Highs will make a run at 60, with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. But a cold front moves through and then will drop temperatures for Sunday. We’ll be back to highs in the 40s through much of next week.

Jamie
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Much cooler weather for the rest of the week…

March 17th, 2015 at 8:35 am by under Weather

I hope you got to get out and enjoy the 70s Monday afternoon! The official high was 71 degrees, shortly after 5pm. Here is a look back at the past 24-hours:

temps observed

Over the past two hours, a cold front has been moving through the Miami Valley. Many have seen the winds shift in from the north and increase… and this is dropping temperatures even more. Get ready for a much cooler St. Patrick’s Day!

holiday

We will see temperatures in the mid-40s for most of the day, and with the breeze it will feel even colder! Wind chills will dip into the upper 30s. We have a lot of clouds in place this morning, but they should clear out a good deal during the afternoon. And if your’e heading out to the First Four games this evening, you might actually want a warmer jacket, it will continue to turn cold:

event

 

Our low tonight will actually drop down into the mid-20s! So it will feel frigid Wednesday morning. The rest of the week will be at or below normal temperature-wise. We will see highs in the upper 40s, and lows down in the low to mid 30s. For what it’s worth, Spring officially starts Friday!

Jamie
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Really really nice to start the week… then back to normal…

March 16th, 2015 at 8:25 am by under Weather

We had a gorgeous weekend–I really hope you got to enjoy the nice weather. Highs both Saturday and Sunday made it up near 60-degrees! The sun was a nice addition, too. :)

Today, we’re starting off nice, as our morning temperatures have been in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Not bad, nice and cool! High pressure is south of us… we will have a west-southwest wind today, and it will be a little breezy.

temps

Expect a mix of sun and clouds, and a high near 70 degrees! Soak it up, because this cold front will bring changes:

temps2

That drops in late tonight and into Tuesday morning. We will see an increase in clouds as it moves through, and we can’t rule out a few sprinkles in spots early Tuesday. But we expect mainly dry conditions through much of St. Patrick’s Day… just cooler weather, with highs in the lower 50s:

event

That high is actually much closer to normal for this time of year, and we will be at-or-below normal for the rest of the week beyond today. I know it may be hard to accept, but normal lows are just below freezing, and we have at least a couple mornings in the upper 20s over the next week or so. But Spring officially starts on FRIDAY!!

Jamie
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Rain returns as we finish off the week…

March 13th, 2015 at 9:24 am by under Weather

We had a pretty nice morning in the Miami Valley, as clouds and a southeast wind helped to hold temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in most spots. However, this will not last all day! Rain is moving in from the west, and will continue to overspread the area through lunchtime. Check Live Doppler 2HD to track the rain today. Most will be dealing with wet weather by noon:

FORECAST

This afternoon looks quite soggy, with rain falling steady through a good part of the day. Imbedded heavier rain will also be possible, and we have flooding concerns… especially in areas south of Dayton, which is the most likely place rainfall will exceed one inch:

RAIN

Rain will continue to fall this evening, so if you’re heading out to dinner… or going to watch the DAYTON FLYERS play in the A 10 Tournament :) … be prepared for wet weather! Rain continues tonight and even through Saturday morning. We will see a gradual drying trend Saturday afternoon, and it will be a cool day with lots of clouds:

FORECAST2

The sun returns for Sunday, and even though we’ll start off cold in the morning (temps in the 30s)… it will be a nice, cool afternoon as we hit highs in the lower 50s. It gets even warmer on Monday, as southerly winds increase! We are talking sunshine and mid-60s! THAT is going to feel great! But it doesn’t last long. We turn cooler on Tuesday, and take a look at the extended temperature forecast:

TREND

Much of the eastern part of the country will be below normal. Enjoy the warmer days while you can!

Jamie
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One more nice day before rain returns…

March 12th, 2015 at 9:23 am by under Weather

We’ve had a couple foggy mornings here in the Miami Valley! And I have received some pretty cool comparisons. One happened in just a matter of hours. This picture from Dayton… showing what it looked like in the morning, and then in the afternoon from the same vantage point:

fog 1

Very cool comparison! Another set of pictures shows us how things changed in 24 hours. Yesterday, a lot of the Miami Valley saw sun after a foggy start… with the exception of some of our northern counties. Amy up in Ft. Loramie (Shelby Co) says the sun only peeked out a few times, and the low stratus deck was quite stubborn. Good news for you, it is a different story today, as clouds broke early:

fog 2

It’s going to be a great day today!! Even though it’s been a chilly morning, the afternoon looks fantastic! You can’t beat this:

today

I really hope you can soak today up, because our next storm arrives on Friday. We will see rain spreading in from the southwest in the morning… and it will overspread all of the Miami Valley as we head into the afternoon:

FORECAST

It will fall steady… and even heavy at times. Many spots will see around an inch or even more than that. The best chance at some of the heavier precipitation will be in the southern half of the Miami Valley. Be prepared for some localized flooding issues in the spots that pick up decent and prolonged downpours. Ponding of water on the roads will be common, and area water ways will continue to run high!

Jamie
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