Jamie Jarosik

Slow warming trend into the weekend…

September 18th, 2014 at 6:43 am by under Weather

High pressure continues to dominate the region, bringing another cool start to the day. With the clear skies and light winds overnight, we are once again going to start the day with some fog or low clouds. This will mix out through late morning, and the sun will be out this afternoon. Today starts a warming trend, which will continue into the first part of the weekend:

temp trend

We will remain dry through this time, as well. Changes arrive with a cold front on Sunday:

sfc

This will bring in scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Miami Valley. The image above is the GFS model forecast for 8am. So, right now it looks like the first half of the day is when we will be most likely to see rain. Drier conditions should build back in for the afternoon and evening hours. Of course, we then cool off behind this front for next week!

Jamie
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Showers possible today/tonight, then pleasant all week…

September 15th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

We are starting the day with mostly clear skies and cool temperatures, as high pressure is still in control:

TEMPS

But there are clouds to the west that will be moving in across the Miami Valley as the day goes on. There are even some showers out that way:

SATRAD

Our rain chances go up later in the day. First, across the northwestern counties mid-late afternoon… and then the rest of the Miami Valley late afternoon-evening. Rain chances linger overnight as the front moves through:

FORECAST

Highs will be coolest across those northern counties today–reaching the upper 60s. In the central and southern Miami Valley, we should climb up near 70-degrees. Behind the front, slightly cooler air will move in for Tuesday, with highs in the 60s:

HIGHS

Tuesday afternoon will be the coolest of the week, and then we will see some really pleasant weather! Lots of sun Wed-Fri, with highs in the lower 70s… and overnight lows in the upper 40s.

Jamie
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A fall-like stretch through the weekend…

September 11th, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

A strong cold front brought heavy rain to parts of the Miami Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Here are a look at some of the totals from our Weathercheckers and Doppler estimates:

rain    doppler est

Now, cooler air is moving in on northwest winds behind the front:

TEMPS

Highs today will only be near 70 degrees, and it will get slightly cooler each day through Saturday:

FRIDAY: 69
SATURDAY: 66

A real taste of fall! Late Friday night into Saturday morning would be our next chance for a few showers. Not everyone will see rain during this time, as the chance is fairly low at 20%. Otherwise, most of the weekend will be dry. Next week we will start a slow warming trend, which takes us back into the low and mid 70s as the week goes on!

Have a great weekend!

Jamie
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Thunderstorms today, then much cooler…

September 10th, 2014 at 9:25 am by under Weather

A strengthening storm system makes it’s way towards the Miami Valley today, and southerly winds ahead of it will continue to keep us warm:

TEMPS

The humidity is also going up… as dew points are climbing into the mid and upper 60s. As we heat up this afternoon, we will see the potential for showers and thunderstorms. During the early afternoon, we could see rain in the northwest counties, with the slight chance of something isolated popping up farther south and east. Rain chances through early afternoon look something like this:

POPS

Then, after 4 or 5pm, the rain chances go up area-wide. Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible late today into tonight:

forecast

And the thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rain and even strong wind. We have an elevated flooding threat, with a Flood Watch that goes in to effect at 4pm and continues through Thursday morning for all of the Miami Valley. There is also an elevated severe weather threat. We will be most at risk during the evening and overnight, as well:

svr

Rain will taper off Thursday morning, and as we dry out, cooler air will be spilling into the region! Take a look at highs tomorrow:

HIGHS

And over the weekend, we won’t get out of the 60s! Football weather, for sure!

Jamie
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Fog… to sun… to thunderstorms.

September 9th, 2014 at 8:26 am by under Weather

We started off very foggy in spots this morning! A Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10am for low visibility–in some cases,  below a quarter-mile. Here are some foggy images:

kettering     beavercreek

Where it wasn’t foggy, it was nice and clear. Great viewing for the full moon, called the full Harvest moon… because it’s the closest full moon to autumn. Mix 107.7′s Jeff Stevens took this Harvest moon selfie early this morning:

tipp city

You can barely make out the silhouette of his head in the dark! :) Too funny!

By late morning, the fog will be lifting out, and we will see some sun during the afternoon hours. A southerly flow develops today, and this will help in a slow warming trend. Highs yesterday topped out right at the normal 79-degrees… and today we should push into the lower 80s. Southerly winds strengthen on Wednesday, and this will also draw moisture back into the Miami Valley. As dew points increase, it will start to feel much more humid. Highs Wednesday will reach the mid-80s.

A strong cold front will be moving our way Wednesday. In the warm and unstable airmass out ahead of it, we could see a few thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. But a better chance comes in the evening and overnight as the front moves through. Some of these could be severe:

svr risk    svr

We will keep you posted on any watches or warnings for the area. Rain and/or thunderstorms will be around early Thursday, but then we will dry out in the afternoon as cooler air builds in. Highs will only be near 70 on Thursday and Friday… and we likely won’t get out of the 60s over the weekend! And while fall-like temperatures are coming… we are already seeing visual signs of the change of seasons. Check out the fall color one of our viewers spotted in New Carlisle:

new carlisle

If you would ever like to share photos with us, just go to www.wdtn.com and use the “Report It” feature!

Jamie
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A slow warming trend through mid-week…

September 8th, 2014 at 6:29 am by under Weather

High pressure is off to our east, and we will once again have a delightful day here in the Miami Valley! It is a cool morning, however… and you may want a light jacket out the door:

TEMPS

But you won’t need it later this afternoon! High temperatures will be a few degrees higher than Sunday, as we make a run at 80-degrees. Plenty of sunshine will rule, and we will continue with dry conditions. A slow warming trend will ensue, and we expect lower 80s on Tuesday, and mid-80s on Wednesday. A strong cold front arrives Wednesday night, this will be our next chance for rain:

SFC

The chance will begin as early as Wednesday evening, and continue overnight. These storms have the potential to be strong to severe; we are already included in the SPC’s Elevated Risk area:

SVR

Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms. We will continue to watch the developing situation. And temperatures will take a big DROP after the cold front moves through. While we’ll see highs in the 80s through the first half of the week, we will end it with highs only in the 60s!

Jamie
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One more hot & humid day, then big changes for the weekend…

September 5th, 2014 at 7:12 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

This morning is a muggy one! We sit in the “warm sector” of a storm system; high pressure is to our east, and there is a cold front to the west, with a southerly flow in between:

SURFACE MAP

These conditions, combined with afternoon sun, will allow highs to approach 90-degrees again (Thursday’s high was 89). But this will be our last HOT day for awhile! The cold front moves in bringing MUCH cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. It’s also bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

As we heat up this afternoon, we may see a few thunderstorms develop. This would most likely occur in the northwestern Miami Valley, and if it does pan out… some of them could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has these counties in an Elevated Risk for severe weather:

SEVERE

Gusty winds and marginally severe sized hail will be the  main concerns, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. This could impact Friday night high school football games, so be sure you stay connected to what’s happening. A great way to do that is to use your smart phone to check out LIVE DOPPLER 2HD when you’re out and about! The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase area-wide overnight and into Saturday morning. While we will likely start the weekend wet, it looks like we’ll dry out Saturday afternoon. Great news, as a lot is going on this weekend! Take a look at how comfortable it will be at our area festivals:

event

Feeling a little like fall, for sure! The Italian and Greek Festivals are also going on… so take your pick & enjoy!
Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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Morning fog, afternoon sun. Nice & warm today!

September 3rd, 2014 at 5:44 am by under Weather

We are starting the day with a Dense Fog Advisory for the counties in grey:

FOG

This is in effect until 9am. The overnight and early morning conditions have been perfect for fog formation. Clear skies, light winds, and plenty of low level moisture from the heavy rain we saw yesterday. You can see how the heaviest fell across the southern counties, where we’re seeing the thickest fog this AM:

rain

And the three-day total from Jamestown may make you do a double-take:

RAIN SINGLE

… especially if you live in one of the spots that didn’t get much over the weekend. High pressure is with us for the next two days, so we expect mostly dry conditions during this time. We will slowly heat up, with mid-80s for highs today, and then upper 80s Thursday and Friday. On Friday, rain chances increase in the late afternoon and evening. And as a cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning, rain chances will be highest. This cold front will also bring in much cooler weather for the weekend and early next week.

Jamie
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Unsettled with front today, then a couple dry days…

September 2nd, 2014 at 9:18 am by under Weather

This morning, we saw some very heavy rain impact the Miami Valley through the early rush hour. Here are some of the totals our Weathercheckers reported:

rain

The steady rain is winding down, and we will get to enjoy some dry time today. However, the potential for a spotty shower or thunderstorm will really linger through mid-afternoon. While the threat for severe weather is very low, we will still have the potential for a heavy downpour… so the Flash Flood Watch continues through 4pm:

flood

It will continue to be humid, with highs in the lower 80s… right around normal. Wednesday will be a dry day, as high pressure briefly builds into the area. With more sun, we will warm into the mid-80s… and that warming trend will continue on Thursday. We expect another dry day with highs in the upper 80s. Friday will be our next chance of rain!

Jamie
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So-so holiday weekend forecast…

August 29th, 2014 at 7:44 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Thursday was a beautiful day in Dayton & the Miami Valley, with highs in the lower 80s, low humidity and a good deal of sunshine. Today will be a little warmer, and we’ll also notice the humidity increasing in the later afternoon and evening hours. Despite this, most of the area will have another dry day, with a good deal of sunshine!

Friday night football starts tonight! Who is your team? I am a Fairmont High School grad, and we actually have our 20th reunion this weekend! Tonight Fairmont plays cross-town rival, Alter… and it should be a great night for Operation Football:

football

Saturday will be another very warm and humid day, and we’ll start to see the slight chance of a few showers late in the day. While not everyone will see rain Saturday, the chance is there that a few do. And most of the area has a good shot at rain on Sunday. We will have the best coverage Sunday, and there could be a few rounds of wet weather. There is even the chance of a few showers/t’storms on Labor Day. If you’re heading to Holiday at Home, be sure to keep Live Doppler 2HD handy on your phone!

event

Warm and humid will be the rule right through the long weekend!

Jamie
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Not as hot today, but still humid…

August 27th, 2014 at 6:37 am by under Weather

A slow-moving front is dropping through the Miami Valley today. It will still feel humid, but won’t be quite as hot as yesterday! We made it into the lower 90s:

almanac

Today, we’ll likely stay in the mid-80s for highs, but our dew points stay at sticky levels–in the mid-upper 60s. As the front moves through, there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Not everyone will see rain today, there will be many that stay dry… but if you do get a shower or thunderstorm, you could pick up some heavy rain rather quickly! One spot near the Fairfield Commons Mall picked up an inch of rain in less than an hour yesterday… while surrounding communities saw little, if any, rain:

DOPPLER EST

And here are some other totals sent in from our Weathercheckers:

RAIN MEASURED

It could be the same story today. The best chance of rain will be in the afternoon, although we couldn’t rule out an isolated shower through lunchtime:

FORECAST

Less humid air arrives tonight, and it will be quite pleasant Thursday, with highs in the lower 80s and low humidity. However, the break from the heat doesn’t last too long; Friday and Saturday we will heat back into the upper 80s/close to 90. The humidity also comes back over the weekend, and rain chances will be on the rise. It still looks like the best shot at rain will be Sunday.

Jamie
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Hot and humid for one more day, then changes…

August 26th, 2014 at 6:46 am by under Weather

We will continue to be in a hot and humid air mass, with a southerly flow ahead of a cold front today:

temps

We officially hit 89 yesterday, with just a few isolated showers in the area. Temperatures will make a run at 90 again today, with plenty of sunshine. We will continue a 20% chance of an isolated shower this afternoon, but as the cold front gets closer, the rain chance will go up. Especially this evening and overnight, a few spotty showers or even thunderstorms will be possible.

FORECAST

The front is a slow-mover, so it will still be in the area Wednesday… and we will continue the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. It won’t be quite as hot, but it will still be humid. We will notice a big drop in humidity Wednesday night and Thursday, but temperatures will still be just above normal:

TEMP TREND

Over the holiday weekend, the humidity will increase again and the rain chances go back up. The best chance right now looks to be Sunday. There is a lot going on this weekend, so it’s an important forecast!

Jamie
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Hot and humid weather to continue this week…

August 25th, 2014 at 6:41 am by under Weather

We hit highs in the upper 80s on Sunday, and we expect similar conditions this afternoon. In fact, the next three days look to be fairly close to that 90-degree mark:

temps

We will enjoy plenty of sun this afternoon, but do have a slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm. It looks to be isolated, however, so most will end up staying dry. We’ve actually caught up on rainfall for the month and year… we are in good shape:

precip

Rain chances will continue to be low on Tuesday, but then increase Tuesday night and Wednesday as our next cold front arrives:

sfc

Scattered showers and thunderstorms look more likely mid-week, and this will be followed by a drop in temperature. Highs will be closer to normal (in the lower 80s) for the end of the week.

A look ahead to the holiday weekend: right now it looks a little unsettled, but not a wash-out. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the low 80s.

Jamie
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More thunderstorms… flooding potential

August 22nd, 2014 at 8:53 am by under Weather

Once again, the morning drive is plagued with a steady rain, and imbedded heavy downpours. Parts of the Miami Valley have seen 2-3″ of rain over the past day, and with saturated ground and rain still falling… there are flooding concerns:

rain

flood

Flood Advisories highlight the ongoing high-water: ponding on roadways, standing water in low-lying or poor drainage areas. Localized minor flooding will continue through the rest of the morning in these areas. ALL of the Miami Valley is in a Flash Flood WATCH through 10pm.

The steadier rain will be likely through early afternoon. It does look like we’ll have the best shot at some dry periods in the mid to late afternoon hours, much like yesterday. BUT a spotty shower or thunderstorm will still be possible during this time. Heavy rain will accompany the thunderstorms, too.

We still have a decent shot at some scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday–best chance in the afternoon. An upper level ridge will build in for the weekend and start of next week. This will really bring in the heat and humidity, as rain chances die down:

500

Highs will be up  near 90, and potenitally into the lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. With the high dew points, our heat index, or “feels like” temperature, will be in the  mid-upper 90s. This will persist until mid-week, when the next system will bring in another chance for rain and cooler temperatures.

Jamie
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Showers and thunderstorms at times, then HOT

August 21st, 2014 at 9:19 am by under Weather

We’re dealing with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. An active summer weather pattern has developed for the Miami Valley… and we will likely feel the hottest temperatures of the summer over the next several days.

Rain and thunderstorms will be most likely today through mid-afternoon. During the latter half of the day, I do expect more dry time. Tonight is in question, as a complex of thunderstorms may develop to our northwest and dive down our way. If this materializes, we could see some stronger wind gusts as they move in. While a lot is still uncertain, we have been included in an elevated risk for severe storms:

SVR

Keep tabs on the rain on LIVE DOPPLER 2HD all day long!

Heat and humidity build for the end of the week and the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 80s on Friday, and near 90 degrees for Saturday and Sunday… and even up there early next week. Look for the heat to break mid-week-ish, as a cold front moves in with rain and drops temps!

Jamie
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A mostly-dry day, still hot and humid

August 20th, 2014 at 7:14 am by under Weather

After overnight rain and thunderstorms impacted the Miami Valley, we are settling back into a quieter weather pattern for the day ahead. We still do have a cold front to our west, which will sag down on the area today:

temps

It will basically stall-out over the region, and keep us with at least a 20% chance of an isolated shower or t’storm popping up this afternoon. But most will miss out on rain. Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s, and it will still be very humid.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms goes back up late tonight. The front will slowly lift north as a warm front on Thursday. This will keep us unsettled, with showers and thunderstorms likely tomorrow:

forecast

On the south side of the front, and with an upper level ridge building in… we are really going to heat up for the end of the week and the weekend. Take a look at this stretch:

TEMP TREND

Three 90-degree days in a row is officially a “heat wave”… and we may be getting a late one soon!

Jamie
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Showers and thunderstorms late day…

August 19th, 2014 at 10:02 am by under Weather

We have a cold front approaching from the west today. Ahead of it, we will be dealing with a warm and very humid afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-80s, and dew points will be in the upper 60s to near 70-degrees. This will make it feel even hotter! Heat index values will be up near 90-degrees.

We expect the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to fire up as the front gets closer. Initially, in the late afternoon, these will be fairly isolated. But showers and thunderstorms will fill in during the evening and overnight hours. Any of them will have the potential to produce heavy rain, and a few could also be strong to severe. A portion of the Miami Valley is included in an Elevated Risk for severe storms:

Severe Outlook

Damaging winds and hail will be the main threat. The threat will die down as the night goes on, and dry weather returns for the Wednesday morning commute. The front stalls south of us for a day, before moving back north as  a warm front on Thursday. This will allow even warmer air to build in for the end of the week and weekend. We could see 90-degree highs by Sunday.

Jamie
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More humid this week, and still unsettled…

August 18th, 2014 at 8:23 am by under Weather

We have a slow-moving area of low pressure to our south this morning, and our southern counties have been dealing with a few small showers to start the day:

temps

As we heat up this afternoon, the potential for showers will continue, and even increase a little, with heavy downpours  possible. Any shower or thunderstorm that develops will also be a slower-moving cell… so some localized flooding could be a concern later today. Watch for ponding water if you are out traveling. Notice how the rain will be scattered–not everyone will see it:

forecast

A wave of low pressure will move in from the west on Tuesday, increasing the chance for rain late in the day. Widespread severe weather is not expected, there could be a few cells that do produce stronger winds or even hail. And the threat for heavy downpours will continue, as moisture will be plentiful in the region. Our dew points will be in the upper 60s, to near 70… and it will feel quite sticky!

While clouds and the potential for rain will keep temperatures close to normal today and tomorrow, we have a warming trend for the rest of the week:

TEMP TREND

Summer is back, just in time for the first full week of school in many communities! Good luck to all students and staff this week!

Jamie
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A fall-like finish to the week, but warming for the weekend…

August 15th, 2014 at 7:44 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

High pressure is building in from the northwest, and it’s cleared skies this morning! Along with relatively calm winds, we’ve seen temperatures tank!

temps

A lot of spots have hit the upper 40s…

Springfield: 48
Richmond: 46
Piqua: 49
Celina: 47

…and it is our coolest morning of the month! The last time we felt 40-degree temps was way back in June. While it is a little chilly, the record low for today is 45-degrees… so we don’t expect to officially get THAT cold. This afternoon will be pleasantly warm, as we climb into the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies. Just spectacular weather for outdoor activities! If you are heading down to Mason for tennis… it doesn’t get much better than this:

tennis

The high shifts east of the area over the weekend. This will allow a southerly flow to develop, and warmer conditions will build in. We expect 80s for Saturday and Sunday, with increasing humidity for the second half of the weekend. The rain chance will also be going up, and we could see scattered showers and thunderstorms around Sunday and Monday.

Jamie
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A worry-free day, then the rain chance goes up again…

August 7th, 2014 at 9:20 am by under Weather

High pressure to our norther is bringing northeast winds to the Miami Valley this morning, and dew points have dropped. This means it feels much more comfortable out there, as we’ve lost the mugginess:

temps

We will see highs near 80-degrees this afternoon, and it will be pleasantly warm. The front to our south will stay there today, but that area of low pressure over Missouri will slowly track our way. We’re already seeing some clouds from this system, and while we consider today “mostly sunny”… we won’t see a bright blue sky. The thin clouds will filter the sun, and it will look more “milky” overhead.

Clouds thicken tonight, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms returns on Friday. The southern half of the Miami Valley will have the best chance at rain:

pops     forecast

The low will be a slow-mover, and rain chances will linger into the weekend. While it doesn’t look like a wash-out, we could have some heavier downpours around, as moisture increases over the region. Temperatures also warm, and we should be back in the mid-80s by Sunday. Still no 90s in sight!

Jamie
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