Jamie Jarosik

The return of sunshine for the second half of the week!

December 11th, 2014 at 6:38 am by under Weather

High pressure building into the region has helped to clear the skies out overnight:

satellite

With the clear skies, temperatures have dropped into the 20s. Even though it’s the coldest morning of the week so far, these readings are pretty close to normal for this time of year:

temps

There is a westerly wind, making it feel even colder… wind chills are in the teens! This afternoon, we will finally… FINALLY… enjoy some sunshine. Temperatures will be seasonably chilly, with highs in the upper 30s. The high moves right over us on Friday, so we should be close to full sun, and we’ll even be a little warmer, with highs in the lower 40s.

Over the weekend, a strong upper level ridge will build into the region, continuing our warm-up:

upper

There will be some low level moisture streaming northward, and this may lead to an increase in cloud cover Sunday and Monday–even some light precipitation. BUT we still should see highs top out in the upper 40s to near 50-degrees!

With the warm-up coming… 2News Today anchor, @WDTNBrooke says it has been difficult for her to get into the holiday spirit. So let’s look at the chances of having a white Christmas:

Stats    Snow Chance

Unfortunately, our two-week temperature outlook is for warmer-than-normal conditions, so it’s not looking good for snow on or around the holiday.

Enjoy the warm-up while it lasts!
Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


More light precip today, then a quiet stretch…

December 9th, 2014 at 8:16 am by under Weather

A cold front moved through the Miami Valley this morning, and has brought light precipitation to the area:

temps     satrad

We will spend the day with more gray skies in the region, as clouds again dominate. The chance for a sprinkle or a flurry will also linger through tonight. We do not expect any snow accumulation during this time, but colder air is moving in, so we will drop below freezing tonight for the first time in a couple days:

LOWS

Watch for some isolated slick spots late tonight and early Wednesday morning. We will run just below normal, with chilly conditions Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Highs will be in the mid-upper 30s. The chill doesn’t last too long, we will swing up in the other direction by the end of the week! Friday through early next week, highs will be back in the mid-upper 40s. And we do expect a nice stretch of dry weather to go along with it the warm-up!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Above normal for one day then turning chilly…

December 8th, 2014 at 9:06 am by under Weather

It was sure nice to see the sun yesterday! With highs near normal, it ended up being a really nice finish to the weekend. Clouds moved in late day, and continued to thicken overnight. We won’t see as much sun today as on Sunday, but most of the day will be dry. We then await the approach of this cold front:

satrad

You can see showers along the front to the west… those will work into the area later today into tonight. Initially, it will be the chance for rain showers, but as colder air moves in, we will see the potential for some mixed precip tonight (rain, freezing rain, snow):

forecast

Lows will dip to right around freezing, so we don’t expect much accumulation or a huge icing issue. We may, however, see a few slick spots develop late tonight into Tuesday morning. And the chance of a rain or especially snow shower will continue through Tuesday afternoon. After today, a majority of this week will be chilly, with highs in the mid-upper 30s for a few days:

temps

But there are signs of a nice weekend ahead!
Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook

 


A soggy finish to the week…

December 5th, 2014 at 9:20 am by under Weather

We’ve been dealing with fog and a few light showers across the southern half of the Miami Valley this morning. Roads are just wet, as temperatures are thankfully above freezing:

Temps

That warm front lifts north as an area of low pressure heads our way today. That means the rain will fill in over the region, and fall steady this afternoon, evening and overnight:

forecast    forecast 2

Some of the heavier downpours will occur tonight, as an area of low pressure moves in. Most locations will pick up at least an inch–if not more–through Saturday morning. The rain will begin to decrease in coverage as we head through noon Saturday. That is when winds will shift in from the north… and temperatures will slowly drop:

forecast 3

We’ll see an early seasonable high in the lower 40s, and then drop into the 30s during the afternoon. There will also be a wind chill to deal with most of the day, and it will feel like we’re in the 20s. We end the weekend on a dry note, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 40s on Sunday.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Spotty showers later today, then rain to end the week…

December 4th, 2014 at 7:39 am by under Weather

High pressure right over us this morning is keeping us dry and calm as we start the day with some frost:

Temps

We have lots of clouds overhead again, and during the afternoon, we’ll see a scattered showers move in from the southwest. Right now they’re located in Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky:

SATRAD

The southern half of the Miami Valley will have the best chance at seeing rain today. A better chance of an area-wide soaking rain tomorrow will arrive in the afternoon. It looks like rain will fall steady at times, and continue through Friday night into Saturday morning. Most forecast models give us over an inch of rain:

ACCRAIN

For the weekend, we will dry out Saturday afternoon, and experience near-normal temperatures with highs in the lower 40s. Sunday will be a dry and seasonable day!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook

 


Chilly for a couple days, then temps come up a bit

December 3rd, 2014 at 9:48 am by under Weather

We have morning clouds, fog and even drizzle and flurries to deal with. It’s another gloomy start here in the Miami Valley:

troy     beavercreek

Most of today, we will deal with clouds. There is a chance (but not a guarantee!) that they will break in spots this afternoon. We should see highs climb up near 40-degrees… so a little warmer than yesterday. There is another push of cold air behind a front to our northwest:

Temps

That arrives later today, and keeps us cold tonight as we drop into the 20s. Tomorrow afternoon will also feature below-normal temperatures, with a high near 38. Unfortunately, the clouds thicken back up on Thursday, and we can’t rule out a spotty shower late in the day. A really decent chance for rain is back on Friday, with showers likely in a good portion of the Miami Valley. Rain chances remain high for the first part of the weekend. Temperatures during this time frame will actually be a bit above normal, as we experience highs in the mid-40s. This could be the start of something–the extended outlook for the month of December is warmer-than-normal:

trend

And the precipitation outlook for December is an “Equal Chance” at being above/below normal… so not a clear picture at this point!

Have a good day!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Light wintry precipitation today…

December 2nd, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

A Freezing Rain Advisory has been issued for all of the Miami Valley until 1pm today.

advisory

This morning, we’ve seen a wintry mix of snow, graupel, sleet and freezing rain. This will become mainly freezing rain/freezing drizzle for the rest of the morning, and may cause a light glaze of ice in spots. Expect slick conditions to develop where precipitation falls. Surface temperatures are in the upper 20s in most of our cities at 8:30am. So how is liquid falling, when it’s this cold? Well in the atmosphere above our heads, there’s actually a warmer layer:

Wintry Mix

Frozen precip will melt in this layer… and then it reaches our colder layer at the surface and will either partially refreeze as it falls (sleet)… or stay liquid until it makes contact with an object (freezing rain). Where we don’t see actual measurable precip today, there is the potential for freezing drizzle. You can stay connected to the changing weather conditions by using the NEW 2News Weather App.

Conditions will improve as we head towards lunch and beyond, with temperatures rising above freezing:

meteogram

The precip coverage will also decrease later in the day, and we expect dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. Both of these days will feature lots of clouds, and a little sun… and seasonably chilly temperatures. Highs will be in the lower 40s.

The next chance of rain arrives on Friday, and we could even see a few scattered showers on Saturday. But the weekend overall looks pretty nice, with highs in the mid-upper 40s.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Colder air is here again…

November 25th, 2014 at 7:39 am by under Weather

A strong cold front moved through the Miami Valley yesterday, and our winds were quite gusty! We had two times where the winds really peaked– once during the mid-morning as some thunderstorms moved through. And the second time happened as the cold front moved across the area in the early afternoon:

day wind

Here are some of the highest wind gusts we saw:

gusts

Today will not be as gusty, but it will still be a breezy day. Winds will generally be between 10 and 15mph, adding a wind chill to already cold temperatures. We’ll see highs in the upper 30s, and it will feel like the 20s pretty much all day long. At least we have dry conditions in place for the big travel day on Wednesday. Most regional travel will be  problem-free weather wise.

If you are traveling farther east, that is where you’ll run into some significant problems. Parts of West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania and on into the Northeast will be dealing with a wintry mess.

Here at home, on Thursday, we have the potential to see a few light snow showers through the day, as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in:

holiday

So while it won’t be the COLDEST Thanksgiving on record, we will be running about 10-degrees below the average temperatures for the holiday. Here is a peek at Thanksgiving climatology:

event

Temperatures will reach their coldest early Friday morning. So if you’re heading out to catch some good deals, be prepared for some frigid conditions, with readings in the upper teens!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Today will be the brightest day of the next week…

November 21st, 2014 at 8:59 am by under Weather

High pressure building into the region will bring us bright blue skies today! We’ll pretty much see wall-to-wall sunshine, but it is still cold! We tied the record low for the day:

event

After the frigid start, we’ll continue to run about 20-degrees below normal this afternoon. Then we get into a weekend warm-up!

temp trend

But that warm up will come along with the chance for showers. Most of the precipitation we will see this weekend will be rain, but early Saturday morning it will still be cold enough for some freezing rain. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s, and while there’s not a whole lot of moisture around at that time… there could be a few areas that get a little light freezing rain:

forecast

It doesn’t last long, and by mid-morning we should warm enough for the switch to all rain. Saturday won’t be a wash-out, showers will be scattered on and off. A much better chance of an area-wide rain is Sunday–especially in the afternoon and evening. But we’ll climb into the 50s!

It looks like we’ll stay in the 50s early next week, but we will turn colder as we head towards the Thanksgiving holiday. Enjoy your weekend!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Back in the deep freeze through the end of the week…

November 20th, 2014 at 9:26 am by under Weather

A cold front moved through late Wednesday, and that has opened the door for more cold air to spill into the Miami Valley! Morning temps have been  holding steady in the lower 20s, but it is colder where our winds are coming from:

temps

So that means we will continue a below-normal trend here in Dayton, with highs more than 20-degrees below the normal values. We are forecasting a high of 27. Clouds have been breaking up, but should fill back in through the day, and we can’t rule out a spotty flurry. It will still be breezy today, but High pressure builds right over us tomorrow, allowing winds to relax a bit. Look for plenty of sun on Friday, with highs similar to today–in the upper 20s.

Over the weekend, the high will shift off to the east… and southerly winds develop. You know what that means:

temp trend

Yes… a warming trend! Saturday we expect highs in the 40s, and we should reach the 50s on Sunday! This does come along with the chance for showers, however. And at least initially Saturday morning, it will still be cold enough for a little freezing rain or snow before we change over to all rain. It’s rain showers for Sunday and Monday, too.

But it’s nothing but SNOW in Buffalo, New York. We’ve been sharing images and stories on our newscasts this week about the incredible amount of lake effect snow that has most in that area snowed in! Here are some of my favorite pictures… and some statistics to compare just how much they’ve received to our normal and record snowfall in Dayton:

les   les 5

les 2   les 3

les 4   snow compare

LES happens when cold air moves over long stretches of relatively warm lake water. It picks up moisture here, and the lift is enhanced when that air mass hits land. This leads to narrow but intense bands of snow, that sometimes move very little. Here is the latest on the Lake Effect Snow Warning that is currently valid for the area, as they expect another 2-3 feet of snow:

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT
  OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION
  OF THE BAND. THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST
  SNOW. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL DURING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...EXPECT
  SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY AND
  DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. SOME ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN CLEARED
  MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE AGAIN. DO NOT TRAVEL IN THE MOST HEAVILY
  AFFECTED AREAS! SNOW LOADS ON BUILDINGS MAY REACH CRITICAL
  LEVELS AND RESULT IN STRUCTURAL FAILURE.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Record breaking cold today…

November 18th, 2014 at 8:00 am by under Weather

After the first significant snowfall of the season on Monday…

snow

…the Miami Valley is firmly in an arctic airmass! Morning lows were bitterly cold, and we officially set a new record:

temps     record

We will also hit a new record LOW high temperature this afternoon… and with this air mass, it won’t be that difficult!

event

We will see a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon, with the slight chance of a spotty flurry or two. A better chance of scattered snow showers arrives on Wednesday. Winds will increase ahead of the system, and may gust up near 30mph through the day. Snow showers look most likely in the afternoon, and will linger into the evening… but any accumulation looks light:

snow forecast

Thursday and Friday look dry and cold, and then we will warm up over the weekend! We actually have 50-degree highs in the forecast by Sunday, but it will come along with the chance for rain.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook

 


Weekend snow showers possible…

November 14th, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

Little has changed over the past 24 hours… except we have gotten a bit COLDER. Here is a look at our morning low temperatures, which have been the coldest of the season so far:

temps

High pressure is building into the region, and it will keep us dry for at least two days. We’ll also get to enjoy more sunshine today than we’ve seen the past two days… but it will still be cold! Highs will only reach up  near freezing… which is actually close to a record!

event

The cold weather will continue into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday will see highs in the mid-30s. It looks like Saturday will start off with plenty of sunshine, and then clouds will thicken in the afternoon hours. The clouds give way to some scattered light snow showers by Saturday night. Here’s a look at the timing of this weekend’s snow:

SATURDAY NIGHT: Light snow showers develop. Parts of the Miami Valley could see some light snow accumulation. Right now it looks like it will amount to less than an inch.

SUNDAY: A few morning show showers… then dry most of the afternoon. A few more snow showers develop late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Snow showers likely, especially to the south and east of Dayton. More light accumulation is possible here.

So some light snow accumulation could impact the Monday morning drive. Stay tuned through the weekend, as new data comes in, we will continue to tweak the forecast. Behind the weekend systems, it does look like even COLDER air builds in for the first half of next week.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Cold continues, and we’re watching the potential for snow…

November 13th, 2014 at 8:06 am by under Weather

Everyone wants to know why we are so cold. I’ve already heard the phrase “Polar Vortex” thrown around, and it’s not even winter yet! This early arctic blast is NOT the polar vortex moving into the United Sates… that semi-permanent weather feature remains in place over the North Pole. What IS happening, is the jet stream is dipping way south. You can see the set-up on the 500mb chart… there is a big ridge out west (where it’s currently warmer), and the big trough over much of the US:

500

That is allowing the cold blast from Canada to move into the country. We will see our highs each day through the weekend running about 20-degrees below normal:

TEMP TREND

We can’t rule out a few flurries today, with lots of clouds expected to remain in place. Thankfully, we will enjoy increasing sunshine Friday into Saturday… but it will remain cold. Saturday will actually be the nicest day of the next week or more, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-30s. Yes, that’s as good as it gets over the next seven days! Our next storm system will move in on Sunday:

sfc

This will bring scattered snow showers to the area, and they will continue into Monday. This is not a set-up for a big snow, but we could see some light snow accumulation. It’s too early to tell exactly how much that would be or who stands the best shot. We will certainly watch it and keep you updated with the latest information. Behind that storm, next week looks even COLDER, believe it or not!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Colder air is here and will stay for awhile…

November 12th, 2014 at 6:44 am by under Weather

Tuesday was our last mild day for a long time. We again climbed into the 60s, ahead of a cold front. The front brought some light rain to the area, as expected, and Dayton officially picked up .07″ of precipitation. Now that front is off to our east, and with that… it’s cold. Much colder than this same time yesterday:

temp change

This cold air mass is going to stick around for awhile. We could even see a few flurries around parts of the Miami Valley Thursday or Friday. But it’s nothing like they’re experiencing across parts of the western US. That’s where they have sub-zero temperatures and even Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings:

west

Saturday will be chilly with sun, but the next storm system arrives on Sunday. We will see afternoon temps push into the upper 30s ahead of this front. This will be our next chance of showers, and right now it looks like we’ll see scattered snow showers. This disturbance also ushers in a reinforcing shot of cold air, so we will stay well below-normal as we head through next week.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Last nice day before the bottom drops out!

November 11th, 2014 at 10:20 am by under Weather

We have one more nice day before a cold front changes everything for the area. Plenty of sunshine is in the works this morning, and should continue into the early afternoon hours. Clouds will increase during the mid-late afternoon as a cold front moves in:

temps

Ahead of that front, southerly winds will continue to be quite breezy, but will boost temperatures into the low and mid 60s area-wide. There are also showers that will move in with the front. We expect rain chances to be highest after 3 or 4pm today.  Showers will continue into the evening and first part of the overnight:

forecast

As winds shift behind the front, MUCH colder air will move into the region. High temperatures will be chilly on Wednesday, but will run about 20-degrees below normal by the end of the week:

TEMP TREND

As the cold air takes over, we can’t rule out a few flurries. The weekend looks chilly, with another disturbance arriving on Sunday with rain or snow showers. This disturbance also ushers in a reinforcing shot of cold air for early next week! Enjoy this last nice day for awhile!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


This week: Mild to start… cold to finish

November 10th, 2014 at 6:44 am by under Weather

High pressure brought us a beautiful and near-normal Sunday afternoon. We enjoyed sunshine, and high temperatures in the lower-50s. This morning, the high has shifted to our east… and this has allowed a southerly breeze to set-up:

temps

Winds increase this afternoon, and will stay up over the next 24-hours. The good news: the south wind will bring in warmer air! We expect highs near 60-degrees both today and Tuesday. HOWEVER, a cold front will approach Tuesday afternoon, bringing some showers to the region:

forecast

The best chance of rain will occur after 3 or 4pm Tuesday. This front will allow MUCH colder weather to build in for the rest of the week:

TEMP TREND

The temperatures above reflect afternoon highs… overnight lows will be down near 20-degrees. A lot of outlying spots could even hit the teens by the end of the week, as we go from short sleeve… to turtleneck weather in a matter of days! And with the cold air moving in, a few flurries will even be possible!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Chilly weekend, even colder next week!

November 7th, 2014 at 8:10 am by under Weather

High pressure building in from the west will bring a dry, chilly day to the Miami Valley. Ahead of it, it’s a little breezy this morning, and wind chills are in the 20s!

temps  wind chill

At least we will see some sunshine with dry conditions through the day. Temperatures top out about 10-degrees below normal this afternoon, as we hit highs in the mid-40s. High school football playoff games will be dry but cold this evening, with readings dropping back through the 30s.

Another disturbance moves in on Saturday, bringing the chance of a few showers to the area during the afternoon:

forecast

Winds also increase as the disturbance moves through, so it will be a breezy and cool afternoon. Temperatures dip a bit Sunday… come back up Monday… and take a big dive as we head into the middle part of the week! Highs will be in the 30s Wed-Fri, with lows dipping into the lower 20s.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Election day showers…

November 4th, 2014 at 6:08 am by under Weather

We have another nice morning in the works here in the Miami Valley! It is breezy, with a strong southwest wind… and that will continue through the day. But the winds and the clouds we have overhead are helping to hold temperatures UP:

temps

That cold front moves in later this afternoon, and as that happens, our rain chances increase. We expect showers to be around in spots, with the best chance of rain coming after 2pm:

hourbyhour

So the earlier you vote, the better your chances at staying dry! At least we will be mild, with lower 60s for highs today. Things change for the rest of the week, as a gradual cooling trend takes over:

Temp trend

We also expect an active weather pattern right through the first part of the weekend. We may see a few more showers on Wednesday–the best chance will be across the southern Miami Valley later in the day:

forecast

And another disturbance moves in from the west on Thursday, keeping rain chances decent.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook


Turning colder beyond today!

October 30th, 2014 at 7:46 am by under Weather

We’re starting off with some clouds this morning… and they’re doing good for our growing season! They have held temperatures in the lower 40s in most spots, so frost has not been a concern:

Temps    temps2

Notice it’s closer to the center of high pressure… that is where skies are clear and winds are calm. We will eventually see some sunshine today, but it will be another cool afternoon, with highs in the lower 50s. If your community has Trick-or-Treat tonight, you have the better of the two nights this week:

event

If your community has Trick-or-Treat on Friday, you might want to consider checking the list of Thursday Beggars Nights to drive somewhere else tonight! Friday looks cold, windy and wet at times. The rain chances will be highest after lunch, as showers move in from the west:

FORECAST

And during the evening hours, much colder air will be moving in from the north… so temperatures will be dropping! Looks like many will have to cover UP the costumes on Friday:

EVENT2

Yes, that is a snowflake on the forecast above! We may see a few wet snowflakes mix in during the evening, with a better chance overnight. We drop to 30-degrees early Saturday morning… and the afternoon high is only going to be 40-degrees! Brrrrr! By Sunday morning, we dip into the mid-20s.

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook

 


Cooler for a couple days… then COLDER

October 29th, 2014 at 7:29 am by under Weather

Tuesday’s cold front is moving well off to the east, and we have high pressure building in behind it:

temps2

A cooler air mass has moved in, as well… and we will have a couple days near/below normal. Highs both today and Thursday will be in the mid-50s, with a mix of sun and clouds and dry conditions. This week, we have many communities having Trick-or-Treat on Thursday or Friday. You can get the full list of times and locations here: TRICK OR TREAT.

If your city has Beggars Night on Thursday… you win! Seriously, you will have MUCH better weather during the evening:

event

On Friday… the Halloween forecast actually looks quite scary, if you’re not a fan of cold! A stronger trough drops in and temperatures really drop, as well:

500

Expect showers during the daylight hours Friday… with the potential for some wet snowflakes mixing in after the sun sets. Little or no snow accumulation will occur. We still expect the first freeze of the season, too– both Saturday and Sunday mornings will be in the 20s!

Jamie
@JamieJarosik
Google+
Facebook