We have already cooled off a bit, with highs today only expected to be in the upper 60s.  BUT we will cool off even more after the second front moves through.  Check out the chilly temps in the forecast for Friday and Saturday mornings:

Afternoon highs will only be in the low 60s Friday… and mid 60s Saturday.  Then we’ll start a slow warming trend that will have us back in the 70s by Memorial Day.  Rain chances over the holiday weekend will be low–maybe a 20% chance Sunday and Monday.  And that would be especially to the south and west of town.  More on this tomorrow!

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If the storm ends up being an EF 4 on the scale, the maximum winds would be up to 200 mph… but to tell you the truth, this one could have been even stronger.  Less than .1% of  all tornadoes end up being EF5 (max winds 235mph)… so that is quite rare.  But outbreak itself is not unheard of… as areas become more and more populated it goes without saying–more people are at risk.  And afterall, it is tornado season in Oklahoma… which is smack dab in the middle of “tornado alley”.  One interesting graphic I came across is the tornado climatology for May 20th:

Scary accurate where that bullseye is.  The National Weather Service has teams out in that community today to survey the damage, and will have more information as the day goes on.  And is there ever damage.  It is heartbreaking to see the images today… Oklahoma Tornado Gallery.

I’ve heard reports of this tornado being anywhere from a half of a mile… up to two miles wide at one point.  (again, NWS will confirm this today).  At one point the NWS in Norman Tweeted this powerful warning:

@NWSNorman 322pm – the tornado is so large you may not realize it’s a tornado. If you are in Moore, go to shelter NOW!

The tornado’s track is eerily close to the one that hit on May 3rd, 1999… although it went a bit farther south.  Here is the track-comparison:

Our residents in Xenia may be able to relate.  The stories of loss… and of survival will continue to pour in over the next few days.  You can stay up-to-date at www.wdtn.com

The good news is that there was warning.  The NWS issued a tornado warning for the area 16 minutes before the tornado developed, and the community of Moore had about a half-hour lead time before it reached them.  The loss of life may be attributed to a number of things… the lack of immediate action (take EVERY warning seriously, and when you hear a warning… act NOW), or even just the shear strength of the storm.  We will learn more in the coming days.  But what is very interesting… is the list of the top 25-deadliest tornadoes on record:  DEADLIEST TORNADOES  Only one of them–Joplin–is in the NWS Doppler radar era.  Amazing life-saving advances in weather technology!  The preliminary death count on Moore is 24… but is likely to rise.  Praying for the whole state of Oklahoma.

Onto our local weather… we do have a slight risk for severe storms today:

The threat will be greatest in the later afternoon and evening hours.  Any storm will have the potential to produce winds in excess of 60mph, and we could see some larger sized hail.  Thankfully, today our tornado threat is not as great… but down in parts of Oklahoma (southeast corner)… Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas… they could see more strong storms with large, long-tracked tornadoes.  We will continue to keep you posted on air and online.  Follow @WDTN on Twitter for breaking news updates, too.

A severe threat will linger on Wednesday, as a slow-moving cold front approaches.  Behind the front on Thursday, showers and even a thunderstorm will still be possible, but the severe threat will be over.  Much cooler air builds in for the second half of the week, with highs in the 60s both Thursday and Friday.

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Yesterday we reached 82-degrees, and it was a little humid.  This summer like weather will continue today, as we get even warmer.  We should reach the mid-upper 80s this afternoon, and dew points will be in the mid-upper 60s… which means more humidity.  The easiest way to measure how humid it feels outside is by looking at the dew point.  Whenever the dew point is above 60-degrees… you will notice it.  Today, the dew points will be in the mid-upper 60s, and this is where that falls on the Muggy Meter:

The rain chance today is fairly low.  If something pops, it would be during the late afternoon or evening hours.  The best chance for this is north and west of Dayton, and the SPC has highlighted this area for an elevated risk for severe storms:

Again, only a 10-20% chance of a thunderstorm… but if it does develop, it could be strong with damaging winds and hail.  We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings for the area on air and online at www.wdtn.com.  A better chance for severe weather in our area exists for Tuesday AND Wednesday.

Stay with us this week, as the active weather pattern fires up again!
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The front will oscillate between the Ohio River and our northern counties right through the weekend.  The combination of occasional disturbances moving along the boundary and daytime heating will fire up showers/thunderstorms at any time.  While it won’t rain all day, every day… it will likely rain at some POINT every day in our area.

Although wide-spread severe weather is not expected, any thunderstorm will have  the potential to produce small hail or even winds 30-to-40mph.  And the downpours.  Wow.  In just a couple hours this morning, Beavercreek picked up over an inch of rain!

So watch for localized flooding over the next several days.  This pattern does not look to break until at least mid-week next week.  So keep the umbrella handy!

Jamie
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We will remain dry today, even though we’ll be dealing with clouds for the morning and early afternoon.  Expect more sunshine as we head past lunch time.  With the sun and strengthening southerly winds, our highs will reach the mid-70s today… running just above normal.

Winds increase even more so on Wednesday–southwest flow 15-25 mph–so quite breezy.  But with lots of sunshine, we will see highs push into the mid-80s!  Talk about a warm-up!

The next rain chance arrives as early as Wednesday evening, as a front drops in from the north:

Initially, the rain chance will be confined to the northern counties, but a better chance of showers and thunderstorms moves through all of the Miami Valley Wednesday night into Thursday.  And a good part of the day Thursday will be wet, as the front stalls over the region.  This front will drift a bit farther south and then head back north as we head into the weekend… the exact placement will, of course, determine who has the best chance for rain each day.  If you have outdoor plans, this is a forecast you’ll want to pay attention to… we will have a better idea of front location as we get closer.

Even if we do see rain here or there… we DO look to be warmer… and to stay warmer.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s through next week.  I’m officially planting! 

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But the clouds are breaking up through sunrise, and that will allow temps to drop into the upper 30s for most… mid 30s for some.  A Frost Advisory is in effect through 9am.  I was able to hold off on the planting (although I was VERY tempted to get things in the ground a few times)… and I brought in all the items the past two nights.  I do plan on actually planting my flowers this week, as we look to be in a warmer stretch… and we’re getting later into the season.  It’s mid-May for crying out loud!  

We do expect a significant warm up this week:

If you do your planting, you will have to water a bit, as the next chance of rain doesn’t show up until Thursday.  We will remain unsettled right through the weekend, with a frontal boundary draped across the region.  Exactly where this boundary ends up will determine HOW unsettled we will be.  Stay tuned.

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Today, more showers and thunderstorms are likely as a cold front approaches from the west:

This will be most likely in the afternoon and evening.  A small portion of the Miami Valley is under an Elevated Risk for severe storms today, with the main threat being strong winds and hail:

It looks like storms will get going in our area, and then strengthen as they head east.  We will keep an eye on it later today, and let you know if we get any watches or warnings… on-air, online at wdtn.com and on social media @WDTN.

Behind this cold front, we will see MUCH cooler air build into the region.  Yesterday we reached 80-degrees… today we’ll be closer to normal, but will continue to drop over the weekend:

So it does look much cooler, although dry, to celebrate MOM on Sunday!  And there is still a very good chance of frost Monday morning, with clear skies and light winds overnight. This will help temperatures drop into the mid-30s early Monday.  Bring in your potted plants!

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That has allowed skies to clear and brought light winds.  This is aiding in the development of fog as we start the day, so watch for reduced visibilities through mid-morning.  Notice that area of low pressure on the left of the image… THAT is our next storm.  It moves our way today, and ahead of it temps will climb into the upper 70s with early sun and increasing clouds.  Beyond 2 or 3pm, the rain chances will start to increase across the area:

Much like the past couple days… afternoon and evening activity will be scattered, so you might get a heavy downpour… or you might get nothing at all.  That’s the nature of the beast!  We are also RIGHT on the edge of an Elevated Risk for severe weather:

Any severe storms that develop west of us will have the potential to reach especially our western counties.  They will tend to weaken, but it is something we will keep a close eye on today.  Check in with @WDTN_Brian on Channel 2 in our 90-minutes of news beginning at 5pm.  There is a slightly better chance of strong thunderstorms on Friday–especially in our eastern counties–as a cold front slowly moves through.  Behind this front we turn a LOT cooler for the weekend:  60s Saturday and only 50s on Sunday!

And we are still watching the potential for frost on Monday morning… clear skies, light winds and temps in the mid-30s.  Brrrr!  Wait until Tuesday to plant if you can!

Jamie
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The nature of “scattered” activity, is that not everyone will see rain… but if you do you could see a heavier downpour or even a little bit of small hail.  Yesterday, there was a fairly potent thunderstorm that came right through Dayton… but in Kettering all we got was a brief light shower and we heard some thunder.

Any rain will taper off through the evening, and Thursday will start off dry.  The best chance at sun tomorrow is through the first part of the day… with again the clouds increasing and scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and evening.  BUT these will be moving in from the WEST–the result of a *new* disturbance moving into the area:

Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce stronger winds and hail, so for Thursday the severe weather threat is “Elevated”.  The best shot at stronger storms will be in our northwest counties… we will continue to keep you posted!

Jamie
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We are still STILL dealing with that pesky upper low, which is keeping our weather unsettled here in the Miami Valley.  This morning, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out, but the rain will not have quite the coverage it had yesterday.  The low is located over the Carolinas today:

Around the back side of this feature, we will continue to see clouds streaming in from the east… and the potential for more showers.  The best shot of rain will come with some heating during the afternoon hours.  We couldn’t rule out a rumble of thunder, but that chance will be a little higher on Wednesday.  Yes, the rain chances continue beyond today… here is a look at a very unsettled stretch:

Right now, it looks like Thursday will start dry… with the rain chance returning in the afternoon and evening hours as the NEXT disturbance moves in.  Scattered activity is possible Friday & Saturday, with a slow-moving front… and finally, a drying trend for Sunday–Mother’s Day.  We will also be cooling for Mother’s Day, as highs will struggle to make it above 60-degrees.  AND you know how we usually say, “Don’t do any planting until after Mother’s Day” ?  Well we say this for good reason… it looks like this year we actually do have the potential for FROST the day after Mother’s Day!  Plant with caution this weekend

Jamie
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