After a muggy start we’re seeing humidity values decrease this evening. Dew points (that’s the measurement of how much moisture is in the air) are now in the 50′s which means it’s comfortable.
But these comfortable dew points are going to last for long. They’ll creep right back into the upper 60′s and lower 70′s for tomorrow.
One of the reasons why we’re going to see our dew points increase is all due to what we call a low level jet. This is a plume of moisture that’s going to be transported northward thanks to strong winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This is going to help fuel thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Right now there’s severe thunderstorms forming in Iowa and Nebraska. They’re seeing VERY heavy rainfall, tornadoes, hail and strong winds. This is the same complex we’ll be tracking for tomorrow. This will eventually turn into an MCS or mesoscale convective system. Basically a large batch of thunderstorms. This system will eventually track eastward into Illinois and Indiana. There’s two things helping to aid in our severe weather threat tomorrow. The upper level winds and the low level jet.
One thing we’re going to have to watch is this MCS. If it holds together it will be west of Indy by early tomorrow morning. Some of the computer models we’re watching has it sticking together and moving through Dayton while others are suggesting it will fade away and allow for another strong line of thunderstorms to develop just west of Ohio and move eastward. Either way we still run the chance for seeing strong storms tomorrow.
The main threats are very strong winds and hail but isolated tornadoes and flooding aren’t out of the question.
Tomorrow morning we’ll start off with low humidity values and some sunshine.
By the lunch hour we’ll see the chance for showers and storms to develop to our west. The best chance of severe storms will begin around 3 or 4pm and track eastward by 6pm.
The storms will head out of our area by the late evening hours.
Thursday actually looks good with some sunshine, lower humidity values and highs in the 70′s.
Stay safe and be sure to be weather aware tomorrow! Sign up for text alerts, make sure your phones are charged and ready to go. Jamie will have the latest tomorrow morning and I’ll be watching things closely too!