This is the time of year when winter storms seem to show up every week on some of the extended model runs that we use.  However it seems that for every three storms that pop up only one verifies.  This is our latest interest.

Here is one slide from the Sunday 18z run… painting a new storm across the east.  This storm system originates across the Gulf Coast (typical with the stronger southern branch of the jet do to the influence of El Nino)  and moves up the back bone of the Appalachian Mountains.

This scenario is one of the most common ways for the Miami Valley to see a “big snow” event.  This early in the season it can happen but we need many things to come together… and perfectly.  First the track has to remain virtually identical to this model run, and for anyone who follows weather, a model typically has the idea of storm correct but the placement is normally off.  Second, when forecasting the 540 line is a general guide for all snow.  That line splits the Miami Valley right down the middle.  On top of that southern systems (since they move up from the south) bring warm air up with them, sometimes making a change over to rain take longer then possible.  If EVERYTHING came together perfectly we

could see significant snows here in the Miami Valley.  While that is a possibility, it is slim.  Right now probably around ten percent or so.  A much more likely scenario is rain, then as the storm system pulls away a few light snow showers with windy and cold conditions.

This map to the left may look a little complicated but it’s an  overlay of the GFS and the ECMWF (a more reliable long term model in this forecasters mind).  With this consensus- windy, cold, with light snow is almost a given.  The only question is whether or not everything will come together to make this more of a snow, then a wind and cold event.

-Erik Zarnitz

Rarely do I blog, but when I covered this story today I felt I had to write something.  If you can help this woman find the rightful owner of the picture, that would be great!  Here is the link below.

http://www.wdtn.com/dpp/news/turn_to_2/Restoring_precious_memories

Tropical storm Claudette is about to make landfall in Florida and as of 9pm on Sunday night its top winds are 45 knots or about 50 mph. 

While winds and storm surge from the ocean aren’t typically large problems with a system of this magnitude, flooding rain is.  The circulation brings in deep tropical moisture and if it is a slow enough mover can cause extreme flooding.

Right now the path for this system takes it into the Tennessee Valley.  Even though the system will be much weaker then it is currently, with the amount of humidity around and temperatures generally in the 80’s the lingering left over circulation will be a bulls eye for heavy rain.  While the path from the National Hurricane Center stops at Tuesday 1Am we can extrapolate a little further.

Usually a system of this size will follow the 500mb flow.  As you can see from the wind barbs this system has some forcing to the west pushing the low north and east.  Right now I would put Kentucky and West Virgina as the main track for the remnants of Claudette but we can’t be ruled out of the equation.

Things can change however… with no real strong current in place right now this system may decide to twist and turn a little more along the Gulf before moving northwards.  So continue to watch the forecast!  We’ll have to continue to monitor this situation.

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Reporters like myself here at WDTN have just been given the opportunity to create blogs on the website. I am excited about the chance to interact with viewers. I’m not really sure how best to use this new tool right now, so if you have any ideas please let me know. I used to think I was technologically savvy but with every new Twitter or the like that comes out I feel I’m falling farther behind. But I’ll try to get an avatar? for you shortly and try to make this thing as interesting and informative as possible – DAVE