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Foggy morning, warm with rain late week

October 29th, 2013 at 6:43 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

We’re dealing with some patchy fog this morning.  It’s causing more of a nuisance farther north where some schools are now on 2 hour delays.  Click here for a list

We have a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10am.

visibilities dense fog advisory

Fog this morning with some sunshine then clouds increasing for the afternoon.  It will be dry today with highs near normal.

tue 6pm

Our jet stream or storm track will bring us temperatures above normal for Wednesday and Thursday.  On Thursday our jet stream takes a big dip and this means that we will see enough lift for thunderstorms to develop.

jetjet2

There is a slight chance that some of these storms may be on the strong side.  The Storm Prediction Center has portions of Ohio in an elevated risk of severe weather.

severe threat thursday

Right now it looks like trick or treating may be soggy.  We’re going to keep an eye on this system.  It’s a little too early to tell whether or not strong storms will make it all the way here.  But it’s something to be aware of.

trick or treat

Until then we’ll see temperature above normal with a few showers possible on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward.

wed 7amwed 5pm

If you need to get any yard work done today would be the day to do it.  Rain chances will increase.

rain percentage raking forecast

Have a great day!
Tara
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Warming temperatures for the weekend

June 19th, 2013 at 8:50 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to bring dry and pleasant weather to the Miami Valley this afternoon. Northeast winds is bringing us lower dew points which will make for very comfortable conditions. The lower dew points will allow for cool temperatures at night and warm temperatures during the day.

high

By Thursday into Friday high pressure moves off to the east, this will allow winds to become more southerly which will bring warming temperatures as we head into the weekend. Temperature will become more summer like as highs are expected to rise into the upper 80′s to near 90 degrees!

sfc map

temps

Rain chances will increase slightly for both Saturday and Sunday because of the very warm temperatures and increasing humidity. But these will be isolated because high pressure is still in control. Since high pressure is associated with sinking air this will suppress the thunderstorm activity from becoming too widespread.

-Jonathan


Last day under the influence of upper low–but next system arrives tomorrow!

May 8th, 2013 at 7:53 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Once again, we are starting off cool and dry across the Miami Valley this morning.  This afternoon looks very similar to yesterday (maybe a touch warmer) as the upper low is moving farther away, but still influencing our weather.  We’ll see partly sunny skies, with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon as we heat up.

forecast

The nature of “scattered” activity, is that not everyone will see rain… but if you do you could see a heavier downpour or even a little bit of small hail.  Yesterday, there was a fairly potent thunderstorm that came right through Dayton… but in Kettering all we got was a brief light shower and we heard some thunder.

Any rain will taper off through the evening, and Thursday will start off dry.  The best chance at sun tomorrow is through the first part of the day… with again the clouds increasing and scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and evening.  BUT these will be moving in from the WEST–the result of a *new* disturbance moving into the area:

forecast2

Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce stronger winds and hail, so for Thursday the severe weather threat is “Elevated”.  The best shot at stronger storms will be in our northwest counties… we will continue to keep you posted!

Jamie
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Thunderstorm chance is increasing, and some could be strong

April 10th, 2013 at 7:35 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Check out how warm it was yesterday… WOW…

almanac

That is the warmest we’ve been since September!  We were able to get so high because the sun came out and remained with us through most of the day.  No showers/t’storms developed, either… so temps soared!

Today, it looks like the same set-up:

Temps

But we do have a slightly higher rain chance.  This morning some widely scattered showers have developed, so don’tModels sag that front a bit more south into our area this afternoon… and the best chance of thunderstorms will be closest to the boundary.  Here’s how t’storm chances will play out today:

precip chances

Even though there’s only a 30% chance in the Dayton area… any thunderstorm that develops does have the potential to be strong to severe.  Here is the ELEVATED risk area, highlighted by the SPC:

severe

The main threat will be strong winds… but large hail is also possible.  We will keep you posted on-air and online.  On Thursday, the strong cold front will increase the chance of thunderstorms even more so and any of them could be severe again.

Yesterday, I got to go speak with students at Jane Chance Elementary School in Miamisburg all about severe weather and how to read weather maps.  We had a great time, and they were so sharp–asking fantastic questions.  Thanks to the school for having me!

school

Jamie
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Winter storm moves away–now a warm-up!

March 6th, 2013 at 9:24 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

The storm we’ve been tracking for days moved through the region yesterday and overnight, bringing very heavy snow to parts of the Miami Valley.  Here’s a look at some of the higher totals we saw:

And now a map of the entire area, with snowfall amounts plotted:

One sequence of photos from Bonnie in Springboro shows how quickly things changed:

It’s a heavy snow, too, so shoveling will not be as easy as some of the snows we’ve seen this season… quite the work out, in fact!  If you’re not used to that level of physical activity, please use caution.  The accumulating snow is over–we can’t rule out a few flurries through the day, however.  Expect lots of clouds and breezy conditions, with highs running about 10-degrees below-normal this afternoon.  We’ll only reach the mid-30s.  Road conditions remain poor this morning, but will improve some this afternoon.  Whatever melts will re-freeze tonight, so use caution as we drop back into the 20s.

THEN a warming trend sets in.  High pressure builds our way tomorrow, so we’ll see some sunshine with highs in the upper 30s.  And on it goes…

Be careful when out traveling today!
Jamie
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Calm today but a winter storm heads our way tonight…

March 4th, 2013 at 9:21 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

We’re finally enjoying some morning sunshine across the Miami Valley!  We will continue to see a good deal of sun through lunch, but clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon, ahead of the next storm system:

This could bring a few showers to the area this evening (snow, sleet or rain)… but the better chance of precipitation will hold off until late tonight.  Here’s a look at Futuretrac as it is expected to spread in–a wintry mix becoming wide-spread after midnight:

This continues through the morning drive, Tuesday.  Watch for slick spots developing, as temperatures will be in the upper 20s.  Freezing rain, sleet and snow will all be possible during the morning drive Tuesday.  Our northern counties will see a change-over to all snow through the day… and by evening, the Dayton area will also be chaging over to snow:

The snow could fall heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday morning:

This is a very tricky system to forecast, as the track of the storm will determine who sees what and how MUCH you see.  You can get a good feel for about what we’ll see by the graphic below:

Because the northern counties stand the best chance to see 4″+… there is a Winter Storm WATCH in effect from Tuesday at 1pm through Wednesday at 1pm.  Do not let this be the last forecast you see!  As we get closer, things are likely to change… so we will continue to tweak the forecast accordingly!

Even though we’re experiencing winter weather… this is actually Severe Weather Awareness week nationally, and in Ohio!  It’s important to go over terms that you will likely hear this season & get familiar with them, so you’ll know just what’s going on.  Here’s a great link to a refresher –> SEVERE WEATHER TERMS.  The statewide tornado drill is Wednesday, March 6th.  Schools will be participating in this, so let this be a conversation-starter for the dinner table!  :)   It’s important for kids to know not only the plan at school… but also at home.

Jamie
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Pretty quiet today, but a return to winter tomorrow!

February 14th, 2013 at 7:56 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Happy Valentine’s Day!

A cold front will head toward the Miami Valley through the day.  Ahead of it, we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds, breezy conditions and above normal temperatures.  We’ll push into the mid-40s during the afternoon… but we can’t rule out a spotty flurry or sprinkle, especially across the northern counties.  You can see some light precip moving across Northern Indiana this AM on Live Doppler 2 HD:

If you have a date this evening, expect temperatures to quickly drop into the 30s, as the front comes through.  Pretty quiet conditions will persist tonight, but another front will move in for Friday, and THIS one has the REAL cold air behind it!  It also has something else… moisture.  The chance for snow showers develops for Friday and Saturday:

Right now, accumulation looks light… generally an inch or less.  BUT at times, it may come down rather heavy… with quick light accumulation.  So watch for that if you will be out and about Friday.  And then much MUCH colder for the weekend.  Highs in the 20s, lows in the teens for both Saturday and Sunday!

Jamie
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Severe weather threat over, but still a lot to deal with today…

January 30th, 2013 at 9:23 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

This morning, we had several severe thunderstorm warnings issued in the Miami Valley, despite not really having any thunder or lightning!  A line of showers was still packing some pretty strong wind gusts–between 50-60 mph:

Very heavy rain came in that line, as well… and some locations saw those rainfall totals add up quickly.  The Dayton International Airport picked up almost a half-inch in just 45 minutes!  The line quickly moved east, but steady rain lingered for the rest of the morning drive.  Even as we get a pretty decent break, we continue the chance for scattered showers into the afternoon hours.

Would you believe we hit a new record high today?  And it happened just before 4am:

Yes, it was 65-degrees at 3:55am on January 30th… crazy!  Most of the afternoon we will be hanging in the 50s… then a cold front moves through during the evening.  This will bring in MUCH colder air, and any rain showers will transition over to snow showers.  Some light accumulation is possible, and as temperatures dip to 20-degrees overnight, slick conditions will develop.  Be aware of black ice for Thursday morning’s drive to work.

The cold then sticks around, with scattered snow showers through Thursday afternoon, and accumulations up to a half-inch.  Friday will be the coldest day of the week!

Jamie
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Coldest morning of the season so far… more to come

January 2nd, 2013 at 9:07 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Today was the coldest morning we’ve seen yet this season in the Miami Valley.  Many locations dropped into the teens–the lowest the Dayton Airport has been since February of last year.  Here are some local temps–you can even see some single digits showing up!  This happened as the clouds broke up just enough in these spots to allow for the bottom to drop out:

Many also saw fog form, with the clearing skies and calm winds.  But we will enjoy some sunshine today, as high pressure builds in.  This feature will keep things quiet (but cold) in the area for the next 24-hours.  The next weather feature to watch is a cold front that drops in Thursday.  While we start the day with some sun, we will become mostly cloudy in the afternoon hours:

There’s not a lot of moisture to work with here, so chances for snow remain low.  But we can’t rule out a spotty flurry or light snow shower–especially across the northern counties.  This front will also reinforce the cold air in place.  The next several nights will see readings in the teens/single digits… and afternoons stay in the 20s.  There will be some moderation next weekend, with highs closer to freezing.  And another system brings in some clouds on Sunday–and possibly a few showers, too.  But, again, there’s not a lot of weather action over the next week or so!

Stay warm!
Jamie
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NYE snow chances…

December 31st, 2012 at 8:23 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

The weekend before Christmas, I took my son out to buy some snow boots… as I knew he would soon need them.  ;)   Since then, we’ve seen not only one, but two good accumulating snows in the Miami Valley.  And believe it or not, another chance for snow is on the way.  Snowlovers, this is make-up for last winter–the winter that wasn’t.  Let’s time this thing out…

The first part of the day will be dry, we’ll just see lots of clouds continue to thicken up.  These clouds have caused temperatures to rise as they’ve moved in early this morning.  We did briefly dip into the lower 20s, but once the clouds moved in we climbed back in the mid-20s, and by 8 o’clock it is upper 20s:

(Note the teens behind the front, in Iowa.  That will be important later.)  :)   We expect readings to climb up near the freezing mark this afternoon, ahead of that cold front.  As that happens, snow showers will develop–right now, it looks like any time after 2 or 3pm:

At first, we won’t see too many problems on the roads… BUT as the sun sets, and temperatures drop into the upper 20s, we run into more slick spots developing.  Here’s the forecast as we ring in the new year:

Use caution if you will be out celebrating.  If your designated driver falls through, you can call Arrive Safe for a FREE cab ride home:  449-9999.  Put that number in your phone, write it on your arm… just in case you need it later!

A few snow showers will continue (especially early) on New Year’s Day.  Now for that frigid air… behind the front, MUCH colder air will build into the region.  For the rest of the week, highs will be in the 20s, with lows in the teens.  The coldest airmass yet… get ready!

Jamie
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Clouds, sprinkles move out… the sun moves in

November 7th, 2012 at 7:34 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

A weak disturbance is passing just southwest of the area:

And it has been producing light showers–mainly to our west.  But some of our counties have had a passing sprinkle or light shower–even a little mixed precip is showing up on Live Doppler 2HD.  As this disturbance moves away during the afternoon, the clouds will break up a bit and we’re back to SUNSHINE!  And once the sun comes out, it is here to stay… for a few days!  As mentioned yesterday, high pressure at the surface brings this clearing:

And a pattern-shift will occur over the next couple of days, too.  We are still in a trough and this has been keeping us cool:

But by Friday and the weekend, a ridge will build in:

That brings a big warm-up.  Still on track for upper 50s on Friday and 60s for the weekend.  Otherwise, things will be pretty quiet around these parts.  The next chance of rain will be with a stronger front on Monday–we could even hear some rumbles of thunder with this feature.  And it will be followed by another drop in temperature!

Jamie
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Still hot & humid, but now with a better chance of rain…

July 18th, 2012 at 7:00 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

We’ve seen a few isolated showers and even a couple thunderstorms out there this morning.  I was monitoring my Twitter feed around 5am, and many were tweeting about hearing thunder!  BUT not many saw rain, unfortunately.  A lone thunderstorm did pop up in Montgomery County, and did indeed produce some heavy rainfall… but it fell over SUCH a localized area.  Really the cities of Oakwood and Beavercreek got the best of this one.  Here is what it looked like on Live Doppler 2X:

When it was at peak strength, it was measuring four miles by six miles… so a very small storm.  A better cluster of storms has been moving through Warren County to our south… mainly along/south of I-71.  BUT most have not seen any rain this morning, as it has been very isolated this activity has been.  A better chance of rain will occur this afternoon as a cold front moves in during the heating of the day.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms become more numerous during this time, and will linger into the evening hours.  We do have an Elevated Risk for severe storms:

 

Even if a storm is not severe, it will still have the chance to produce some very heavy rainfall.  This same pattern will be with us on Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms… some strong to severe.

Some locations will likely pick up some nice rainfall totals out of this–models advertise well over an inch.  BUT as the activity will be scattered, not everyone will cash in on this.  Keep Live Doppler 2X handy so you can see where the heaviest rain is falling over the next two days.

As for temperatures… we at least have two more hot and humid days.  We did break a record high at the Dayton International Airport yesterday, and a couple other regional locations did as well:

Today we won’t be quite as hot, but with a high of 94, and dew points in the lower 70s… our heat index will again be above 100-degrees.  An EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING is in effect for Montgomery County and the rest of the Miami Valley is under a HEAT ADVISORY.  Any shower or thunderstorm will cool things a bit this afternoon, but it will remain quite humid.  Tomorrow will still be hot and humid, with a high near 90… then… FINALLY on Friday, the humidity will drop as we climb to near-normal values in the mid-80s.

Jamie
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued until 8:00 PM

July 1st, 2012 at 2:34 pm by under Uncategorized

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of the Miami Valley until 8:00 PM. The watch does not include Hamilton, Butler or Clinton Counties at this time.

We are currently tracking strong & severe thunderstorms mocing through portions of North Central Indiana. Radar shows a cluster of storms between Lafayette and Marion.

These storms will slide to the East Southeast and likely impact areas along and North of I-70 in the Miami Valley between 4 and 7 p.m. Damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning will be the main threats.

Temperatures in Dayton as of 2:00 p.m. were around 93 and with a little more heating we will likely get close to 95 or 96. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in place for Montgomery County and the City of Dayton and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the rest of the Miami Valley through 8:00 p.m.

Stay with 2 News and Storm Team 2 throughout the afternoon for the latest on the severe weather.

Brandon Redmond
Brandon.Redmond@WDTN.com

 

 


Snow and cold heading our way…

February 10th, 2012 at 8:12 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

It’s not a bad Friday morning for mid-February!  We’re starting the day with temps in the mid-upper 20s and dry conditions.  But clouds are thick, and we’ll eventually see some snow fall out of them later this afternoon.  It looks like we’ll be dry through lunchtime, but really any time after 3 or 4pm, scattered snow showers are possible.  Then, the snow increases in coverage through the evening/overnight.  As the snow initially starts to fall, temperatures will be just above freezing, so roads will be mainly wet… but will get worse after sunset:

We can expect around a half-inch through the evening hours, with steady light snow continuing overnight.  By Saturday morning, here’s a look at what to expect:

Most will be between 1-2″, but some isolated spots could be closer to the 3″ mark.  I’ve had many people ask why Butler, Warren and Clinton counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory… and the rest of us aren’t.  We’re all going to see similar snow amounts–possibly even some higher measurements across the northern counties.  BUT advisory criteria for the northern counties is a bit more than the southern counties.  Here’s the break down on how much snow must be forecast to get a watch, advisory or warning:

I know it can be confusing, but the cut-off has to be somewhere… and it just so happens to fall across this area.  Anyway, as the winds increase tonight and stay up there Saturday and Sunday, blowing and drifting snow will also be an issue.  Untreated roads will continue to be slick all weekend, as highs will only be in the 20s and lows dip into the teens.  Sunday morning looks to be the coldest morning, with some spots dropping into the single-digits… wind chills will also be sub-zero at this time.  Again, the blast of cold air is expected to be over by next week.  We should be above freezing again Monday afternoon, and 40s are still in the forecast by mid-week.  There are a few storms to watch next week, too… best chances for precip right now look to be Tuesday and Thursday.  Could be some mixed precip, too… will get a better feel for it as we get closer.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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Light snow, then the bottom drops out!!

December 9th, 2011 at 7:38 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Get ready for a real taste of winter weather!  Today we’re seeing some light snow, and then tonight we’ll likely be into the coldest air of the season so far.  A cold front is dropping into the Miami Valley today, helping to kick off this snow:

Click on LIVE DOPPLER 2X to see where the snow is falling in our area right now.  Most of the snow will fall across the northern counties, but we’ll probably see a little something, even south of I-70.  Accumulations will be light in Dayton–a dusting at best.  But those northern counties could see around a half-inch… some spots up to an inch.  This morning there could be some slick conditions on the roads, especially north of town… as most temperatures are at or below freezing.  Remember, bridges and overpasses freeze up first!  We’ll climb above freezing this afternoon, so any slippery spots will improve… but then back below freezing again tonight.  Way below!

Tonight, high pressure builds in and temperatures will crash as the skies clear out.  We will likely drop into the teens, so Saturday morning will be quite frigid!  And we’re still not expecting temps to make it above freezing Saturday afternoon, despite plenty of sun.  A real taste of winter!  Sunshine will continue on Sunday, and it will get a little warmer, making it back into the upper 30s.

Next week look for a rebound in temperatures with highs in the lower 40s much of the week!  A weak disturbance brings an increase in clouds (and a SLIGHT chance of a light shower) on Tuesday, but a better shot at precip holds off until the 2nd half of next week.  Right now, it looks like it will be rain on Thursday, as temps will be up!

Tonight is the WDTN/WBDT Christmas party!!  I’m very excited for a night out with my work-family.  I hope you all enjoy your weekend, too!  :)

Jamie
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Wonderful weekend weather…

November 4th, 2011 at 7:25 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Our storm system dumped significant rainfall to our southwest… check out these totals from yesterday/overnight:

Cincinnati set a daily record for rainfall yesterday, with 2.26″… and that additional .01″ picked up overnight.  That beats the old record of .65″ set back in 1961.  It also pushes their yearly rainfall total to 60.69″, so their wettest year on record continues to get even wetter!  There were some flooding concerns down in Butler and Hamilton Counties for awhile overnight with the heavy rain in place.  But thankfully, it’s a thing of the past… as the storm pulled away early this morning, and we’re back to dry conditions.  Clouds will break up during the late morning hours as high pressure builds in.  This will set us up for a sunny afternoon… and all that brightness will continue right through the weekend.

We’ll see high pressure not only at the surface:

But also aloft, which will mean bright blue skies:

It also means a slow warming trend for the area.  We’ll be cool both today and Saturday, with highs in the mid-50s… but expect upper 50s Sunday, and 60s early next week.  We now look to stay pretty quiet at the beginning of next week, with the rain chances increasing for Wednesday/Thursday.  And something interesting on the models… might we see some snowflakes mixing in by Thursday/Friday?

It certainly looks cold enough in the latest model runs!  It’s still a long way off… but we’ll keep an eye on it.  We’re having my 4-year-old daughter’s birthday party this weekend.  Wish me luck… as I will be consumed with kids and princesses :)   Thankfully, we get an extra hour as we FALL BACK Saturday night.  I will be spending my extra hour cleaning up from the party… because you know young children don’t participate in Daylight Savings (ie, they don’t let you enjoy an extra hour of sleep… lol).  I hope you enjoy your extra hour and your weekend!

In space news, there has been another increase in solar activity.  A big solar flare occurred yesterday, sending waves of ionization towards Earth… but the CME, or coronal mass ejection that brought us the beautiful Northern Lights not too long ago is actually heading towards Mercury and Venus.  But the active region on the sun is now turning toward Earth, so there is potential for another sky show here in the coming days.  You can stay updated on this by checking with SPACEWEATHER.COM… and by keeping an eye to the sky over the weekend.

See you Monday!

Jamie
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90s are back…

June 7th, 2011 at 8:29 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

I had a whole blog written, and then the station took a power hit!  If you were watching our 7:56am cut-in… you likely saw us… and then you didn’t!  Still not sure what happened, but it briefly knocked us off the air, and erased my entire blog post!  So here is a new (although shorter) version.  :)

Yesterday was a warm afternoon, with a high of 86-degrees.  It didn’t feel too bad, however, because the dew points were low.  Today, not only will the temperatures be higher, but the dew points too… making for a hot & humid afternoon!  Sunshine is forecast again, with a few afternoon clouds.  Dry conditions will persist over much of the Miami Valley.  There is a complex of severe thunderstorms now moving into northeast Ohio this morning:

These storms have the potential to produce golfball sized hail and 75 mph winds!  They also have a ton of lightning with them… at 8am, Live Doppler 2X is reporting 1,676 strikes!  Notice the boxes just east of Cleveland… these are SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.  And the SPC has actually issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for much of northeast and east central Ohio:

This activity should stay off to our east today… there is just a *slight* (20%) chance that our extreme northeast counties–Logan, Champaign could get clipped by this activity, as it’s backbuilding.  The next GOOD chance of rain for the entire Miami Valley will be Thursday, as a cold front drops in.  The front will then stall-out over the region, and as disturbances move along it, we will remain unsettled as we head into the weekend.  It won’t be a wash-out Thursday through Saturday… but there’s a good chance we’ll see at least periods of rain each day.

 Jamie


More thunderstorms

May 24th, 2011 at 8:36 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

Our weather pattern has not changed much since yesterday… nor will it change much through Friday!  We are stuck with active weather.  This does not mean wash-outs… but it does mean that each day we will have periods where showers and thunderstorms are affecting the area.

As expected, yesterday’s thunderstorms became severe in the evening hours.  We had numerous reports of wind damage across  much of the Miami Valley.  Take a look at local storm reports below, followed by some of the peak wind gusts recorded:

We weren’t the only ones with damage.  The thunderstorms had a path of wind damage that started in Missouri and tore across much of the Midwest:

Today, the potential for severe weather is there again.  We are starting off dry, and will experience some nice weather initially.  But during the afternoon and evening hours our thunderstorms chances increase, and we are in a slight (elevated) risk for severe weather:

Notice there is a high risk for severe weather in southern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma… this is the fourth high-risk area this season.  A tornado outbreak is likely there today!  Uncomfortably close to the city of Joplin, MO… which was devastated by an EF-4 tornado Sunday.  I’ve been reading some of the local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlooks for this area… this is what they’re saying:

Damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph… large hail to the size of baseballs and tornadoes will be possible with these storms.” –NWS Joplin, MO

Tennis ball sized hail… damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph and long track strong to violent tornadoes will be possible.” –NWS Wichita, KS

Large… strong… long-track tornadoes are possible in the high risk area.  Destructive hail… possibly larger than baseballs… and damaging straight line winds also will be possible in the risk areas.” –NWS Norman

The best chance for severe weather in these spots will be in the late afternoon and evening hours, as well.  It certainly has been an active spring… that’s an understatement.  According to NOAA, we’re closing in on 500-deaths this year.  The last time we reached 500 deaths was back in 1953… check out the graph below:

One of the reasons this year has been so deadly, is because the tornadoes have hit cities with higher populations:  Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Joplin, etc.  Thankfully, I’ve read that 480 of the 481 tornadoes this season have occurred within a tornado watch box.  How is that for accuracy!  Let that be your reminder that when we do get watches for the area… it is serious stuff.

We will keep you posted on-air and online with any watches or warnings!  Follow us on Twitter, too.  That came in handy for one family last night when their power went out:  they were able to tweet to me to find out what was going on.  www.twitter.com/WDTN_Jamie

Jamie


Another stormy week… another deadly tornado

May 23rd, 2011 at 8:45 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

After a pretty amazing weekend (with the exception of the thunderstorms late Sunday)… we are right back into a stormy weather pattern this week.  Overnight thunderstorms produced some heavy rain, as storms moved over & over the same location.  We have some flooding concerns in the southeastern Miami Valley this morning, with radar estimating more than three inches of rain in parts of Greene and Clinton counties.  Be aware you may come upon water on the roads… and remember the phrase “Turn around, don’t drown,” as you do just that!!

A front will stall out over the region, and lay west-to-east for a good part of the week.  Disturbances will ride along this front, bringing several rounds of thunderstorms to the area.  Looking at the severe weather outlook, we really have a chance of severe weather through Thursday.  This morning, the SPC is planning to upgrade our area to a MODERATE risk for this afternoon and evening.

Hail and wind will be the main threats, as well as an increased tornado threat… and heavy rain.  With the potential for thunderstorms each day, possibly training over the same area. the flooding concern will linger.

On Sunday, there was another devastating tornado outbreak.  Parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin had reported touchdowns:

In particular, the town of Joplin, MO was hit hard.  It is estimated that 25-30% of the city was wiped out, as a powerful tornado cut a 4-6 mile path through town.  The death toll was up to 89 this morning, and likely to rise… as crews continue to search through the destruction.  Sadly, this makes it the deadliest tornado outbreak in Missouri history, surpassing the 1957 death toll of 56.   Joplin’s population is 50,000… and the NWS gave people about a 20-minute lead time with tornado warnings.  More thunderstorms (some strong) and heavy rain is possible for this area today, and tomorrow they are right back in a moderate risk.  What a Spring.

Jamie


Finally nice!!

May 20th, 2011 at 8:58 am by under Uncategorized

We’ve undergone a pattern change, and that stubborn upper low that was stuck over us in the blocking pattern has finally, FINALLY, shifted off to the east.  Check out the upper level flow for today:

Heights will be rising, as a big ridge of high pressure builds right over us for today and Saturday.  Notice that just west of the ridge, there is another storm.  That will start to affect us Saturday night, and from that point on things will once again be unsettled for a good stretch of days.  But let’s just enjoy the next three days, because while we may see a little rain at Sunday… it really does look nice for the most part:

Any thunderstorm that develops Sunday will have the potential to become severe.  So today and Saturday, get out into the yard!!  It will be one big mow party.  (If you listen to my weather updates on Mix 107.7, you will get this)  In fact, I believe it’s up for “Quote of the Week“.  :)

Since our weather is so nice now, it’s the perfect time to look elsewhere for blog content!  :)   And NOAA has great timing, just releasing it’s Hurricane Outlook for this year!  Hurricane season begins June 1st, and NOAA is forecasting an above-normal season.  Here are their projections:

  • · 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
  • · 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
  • · 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Seasonal averages are 11 named storms… six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.  Some of the factors that went into the forecast include a continued high-activity area (that has been quite active since 1995)… warm Atlantic Ocean water (of course… fuel for the fire)… and La Nina effects (which includes less wind shear to tear apart storms).  Now, granted, we don’t know where any of these storms will form or hit… but it looking at the factors listed, we get an idea that it could be quite active.  Thankfully, last year our wind pattern kept most of the hurricanes and tropical storms away from the US.  We can’t count on that again, and it could be extremely devastating to areas that have already been hit hard by severe weather–tornadoes and flooding–this spring.  We need to be prepared, and to remind us of that, next week is actually National Hurricane Preparedness Week.  While we obviously don’t get hit by hurricanes here in Ohio… we can get the remnants of these storms.  It’s hard to forget the wind storm the remnants of Ike brought to the area back in 2008.  And we’ve seen flooding from past hurricanes as well, including 2-3″ from Katrina.  Your severe weather safety plan should include actions for all types of weather!

Enjoy the weekend!
Jamie