Ongoing thunderstorms are mainly south of I-70 this morning.  The thunderstorms have been moving over the same areas for awhile now, and here is a look at Doppler rainfall estimates:

I do have a rain-gauge varification from Springboro, where my Weatherchecker, Bonnie, reports 1.2″ at 7:30am… and it is still raining.  There have been flood advisories issued for these areas this AM, for ponding water and low-lying spots that could see a bit more than ponding.  We have an area of low pressure south of us, helping to kick this activity off early on.  It will taper off in the late morning/early afternoon as the feature moves east of the area.

A weak front is draped in the region again today, and with upper level energy approaching during our peak-heating hours:

… this is the recipe for additional showers and thunderstorms later today.  There is the potential for some of them to become strong or severe, with winds over 60mph and even some hail possible.  The SPC has a good portion of the Miami Valley in an Elevated Risk for severe storms:

The best chance for this will be after 2pm this afternoon, as we reach the lower 80s for highs.  The rain chance continues into the evening, so a few spotty thunderstorms may impact the Midwest All Star Game at Fifth-Third Field.  The trend will be for these storms to shift south and taper off as we head into the later evening and overnight hours.  High pressure moves in for Wednesday through Friday, bringing in less humid air and lots of sunshine.

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I hope all the Dads had a great Father’s Day weekend!  The weather was good at times–others, maybe not so much.  A few showers affected parts of the Miami  Valley each day… but each day also featured some dry/nice conditions that I hope you took advantage of!  I had the pleasure of attending Mix 107.7′s Summerfest at Fraze & it was AMAZING.  I saw Sheryl Crow at the same venue about 10 years ago… and I think she may sound even better today.  She sang all the good old songs we all know… and a few new ones, too, which have a bit more “country” to them.  I am not a huge country fan, but I did like what I heard!  Thanks to all at WMMX for such a fun time!

With the rain we saw last week and over the weekend, we’ve caught up quite a bit to where we should be this time of year.  Still need to see the rain every few days to stay in a good spot–the yearly deficit continues:

A front is stalling in the region today, and already this morning we’ve had a few isolated showers along this boundary.  Most of the activity has been north of I-70, but the showers have been few and far between.  We will continue to carry about a 10-20% chance of a shower/thunderstorm through the day, but most locations will stay dry, with little forcing.  The best chance for any rain will be close to the boundary, as it ends up drifting south of Dayton.  After morning fog lifts, we will see plenty of sunshine today as we climb into the mid-80s for highs.  Our UV Index is very high:

Another front drops in for Tuesday, bringing a slightly higher rain chance to the area.  We have a 30% chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms with this feature:

This second front will also bring in *slightly* cooler air.  Tuesday’s high will be near 80-degrees, and on Wednesday we’ll only hit the upper 70s, for below-normal readings in the afternoon.  Still, pleasantly warm and we expect a lot of sunshine for the middle part of the week, too!  This will be a watering week, for sure, as the next rain chance doesn’t appear until next weekend.

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Happy Father’s Day to all the father’s!  Here’s a picture of my dad and I when he came for a visit back in 2011.  We spent the day at the Museum of the US Air Force.  We had a great time!

I hope you had a wonderful day as well.  We did see some rain across the area.  This morning we picked up about a tenth to quarter of an inch in most locations.

We still have a lot of clouds around however we’ll see skies become partly cloudy overnight and into early Monday morning.

We’ll see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for much of Monday.  It will be slightly humid with highs in the lower to middle 80′s.

There’s a slight chance for a few showers or thunderstorms to develop late in the day Monday and these may linger into early Tuesday morning.  But most of the day Monday will be dry.

Temperatures will cool a bit on Tuesday.  Humidity values will drop as well.

High pressure builds across the Miami Valley for the middle part of the week meaning lots of sunshine and highs near 80.

Have a wonderful week!
Tara
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Showers and even a few thunderstorms are going to end out the weekend just in time for Father’s Day.  Hopefully you enjoyed Saturday with the sunshine we saw earlier today.  We made it into the 80′s and that trend will continue for the next few days.

There are a few showers popping on Live Doppler 2HD right now and they will continue to be scattered overnight as well.  There’s another chance for rain on Father’s Day as a cold front that is off to our west moves east Sunday.

While Father’s Day won’t be a complete wash out there will be on and off showers throughout the day.  If you have any outdoor plans the best chance of squeezing those in would be later in the afternoon/early evening hours.

Showers will come and go in waves late tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.  Here’s a look at our Futuretrac forecast model.  We’ll see one wave of showers around midnight then another one around 7/8am Sunday.

We’ll get a bit of a break before another round of showers pushes through around noon.

As the afternoon wears on the chance of showers diminishes and the coverage becomes more scattered.

On Monday there’s still a slight chance for a few showers but they will be widely scattered.

The storms that moved through late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning did produce two very weak tornadoes in the northern part of the Miami Valley.  Two EF-0 tornadoes hit Mercer and Augalize counties.

To see some of the damage  click here
The National Weather Service information is available here

Information on tornado in New Knoxville Auglaize Co
Information on tornado in Rockford Mercer Co.

Tara
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The Wednesday night/Thursday thunderstorm complex brought two confirmed tornadoes to the Miami Valley.  These were located in Mercer (11:35pm)  and Auglaize (12:03am) counties, and have been rated EF-0.  Winds are estimated to have been near 75-mph with these tornadoes.  At the time of their occurrence, we were under a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was in effect.  While there was no official tornado warning issued, the NWS did have the following wording in the thunderstorm warning, “Winds to 80mph… injury/damage threat… tornadoes can form with no warning”.  In this type of situation, when you have a line of severe thunderstorms, sometimes weaker-end tornadoes do spin up–briefly–along the line.  They are very hard to detect, and are usually very short-lived.  If you are interested in reading the NWS’s full report you can see it here: CONFIRMED TORNADOES.

We also had  many wind damage reports from the thunderstorm complex–that spanned two days.  Northern counties saw it first, followed by areas south of town:

And VERY heavy rain.  Take a look at totals:

Now high pressure is building in, so we are getting ready for a pretty fantastic Friday as cooler and less humid air is moving into the region.  Expect a good deal of sunshine through the first part of the day, with a few afternoon clouds at times.  We will top out just below normal–near 77-degrees (normal high is 80).  Saturday also looks dry, and a little warmer… but the rain chance returns late Saturday night into Sunday.  We will be dodging scattered showers and thunderstorms on Father’s Day, but it does not look like a wash-out at this point.  I hope all the dads out there have a great day!!

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We are starting off quiet and dry here in the Miami Valley this morning.  Temperatures are in the upper 60s and lower 70s–but we will soar into the upper 80s this afternoon.  It is also going to feel quite humid, with dew points in the mid-upper 60s.  This will allow heat index values to reach the lower 90s… and the muggy meter is running high:

Most of the daylight hours will be dry in a good part of the Miami Valley.  A warm front will be north of us… and there will be the potential for a few thunderstorms to pop in our northern counties, closer to this boundary:

Any of them could be strong to severe, and the SPC has most of the Miami Valley in a MODERATE risk for severe weather:

The chance for thunderstorms (and severe weather) spreads south as we head through the evening and into the overnight hours.  So Dayton may not see any rain until tonight as thunderstorms form into a complex to our northwest and then dive our way.  Here is just one model solution as to what the radar may look like around 2am:

The main threat is damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.  Our secondary threats would be large hail… and isolated tornadoes.  We also have the potential for very heavy rain, which  may cause some localized flooding.  Be weather aware today–northern counties this afternoon/evening… the rest of the Miami Valley this evening/overnight.  And overnight severe weather is the worst kind, because you don’t know it’s coming when you’re sleeping.  Be sure the NOAA weather radio is on… so it can alert you/wake you if any storms roll in.  Sign up for text alerts, and turn your phone up, as this can be another notification: WDTN Text Alerts

Thursday will start off with rain and thunder–some of which could be heavy at times.  Then we should dry out through the afternoon hours.  The winds increase, so get ready for a gusty day, and it won’t be as warm, with highs in the upper 70s.  It will also be turning less humid, which will set us up for a really nice ending to the week!

Stay with us today on-air and online–we will keep you posted on the weather situation throughout the day!
Jamie
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High pressure is building in briefly here in the Miami Valley.  By briefly, I mean for the next 18 hours or so before a rain chance returns to the area.  So enjoy today’s sunshine and temperatures in the lower 80s this afternoon!

The UV Index is high–a 9 on the scale–which means unprotected fair skin will burn in 15-20 minutes.  Be sure to put on the SPF 30+ and reapply it every couple of hours.  Hats, sunglasses, and shade are all good ideas today!  Let’s take a look at the surface/temperature map this morning:

There’s the high that will bring us the nice day… and there’s the cold front leaving the area.  That was the feature that brought us all the rain yesterday.  Some spots that got a heavier downpour in a thunderstorm saw over an inch of rain!  But most did not:

But now we are high and dry.  On the back side of the high, there is a warm front.  This will affect us on Wednesday–bringing in even warmer air.  We will climb into the upper 80s mid-week, and it’s going to feel more humid.  This also brings in a chance of thunderstorms… some of which could be strong to severe.  We are still in an elevated risk for severe storms, and actually a portion of the northern Valley is in a “hatched” area–higher likelihood of strong storms up that way:

Strong winds will be the main threat followed by hail and isolated tornadoes, and the timing looks best for late afternoon and evening.  Overnight, there is the potential for any activity to form into a larger thunderstorm complex.  This would increase the potential for flooding across the area, with heavy rain possible.  We will keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds, and keep you posted of any watches or warnings.  Stay with us on WDTN Channel 2!

In other news… a really cool (actually HOT) weather phenomenon occurred last night/early this morning in Hastings, Nebraska.  Take a look at the observed temperatures…

That’s a fairly rare thing called a “heat burst”.  You go to bed and it’s in the 70s… and you wake up and it’s nearly 100!  Amazing.  What happens is explained by one of my old meteorology instructors here:  HEAT BURSTS.

Have a good one,
Jamie
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Rain spread back into the Miami Valley early this morning.  We start with a steady rain that will continue in most spots through late morning.  Here is a look at rainfall totals through 8am:

Then it looks like we will see a break in the activity for the early afternoon (lunchtime and beyond)… before the chance for more showers/t’storms later in the day:

When we get into the “lull”… we could even see a bit of sunshine, and we do have a very high UV Index.  SO while you will need the umbrella at times today, don’t forget the sunblock   Our highs today will be a bit cooler than yesterday, as we reach the mid-upper 70s.

Any spotty showers taper off overnight, and Tuesday looks like a dry day with high pressure building in briefly.  Temperatures will respond, and climb back into the lower 80s Tuesday afternoon.  On Wednesday, we could experience the warmest day of the week, with highs possibly in the mid-upper 80s!  This will be dependent on clouds and rain chances.  Right now, there’s a chance for a complex to develop and move in during the evening hours… and being with us overnight.  We will have to keep an eye on this… there is the potential for some damaging winds, if it all comes together.  The SPC does have us in an Elevated Risk Wednesday into Thursday:

And it looks wet through the first part of Thursday, as well.  More on this event as we get closer.

Jamie
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Today was a great day for a BBQ!!!  I met up with some great friends from twitter and we went to Eastwood Metropark for some fun and great eats.  Jamie Jarosik was there too and snapped this photo.

Big thanks to Shane for taking care of chef duties.  The rain held off and the weather was just right.  It wasn’t too hot or too cold thanks to cloudy skies.  We did see some sun at times but the clouds really helped to keep it comfortable.

Right now we’re seeing some showers across portions of the area.  Here’s a look at the radar at 6pm

This batch is light and moving from the south to the north.  There’s another line of showers off to our west that will eventually head this way overnight.

Here’s what it looks like will happen.  Right now the light rain will move northward, we’ll get a break and then we’ll see another round of rain overnight through the Monday morning commute.    As the day wears on Monday rain becomes much more scattered.  Here’s what I am thinking:

Temperatures will be a touch cooler Monday due to the cloudy skies and rainfall. Today despite the clouds we did make it up to 82.

Keep the umbrella handy for Monday morning and through the early part of the afternoon.

By Monday evening for the drive home it looks much better.

Tuesday looks great with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80′s.

The sunny skies won’t last long there’s another chance for some showers Wednesday night.  We’ll continue to track the chance of rain for the middle of the week.

Tara

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We’ve been stuck in mostly cloudy skies for most of the day. Take a look at the satellite pictures from just a few hours ago.

That kept our temperatures a few degrees below normal.

But now we’re beginning to see the sun pop across the area so we may see temperatures rise a few degrees even after the climate report just came out.

We’re in store for quiet weather for much of your Sunday.  There will be some sunshine but still some clouds around on your Sunday.  There’s a very slight chance for an isolated shower popping after noon but most locations should be on the dry side.

By the evening hours clouds will begin to thicken as our next rainmaker heads this way.

You see by 11pm rain begins to move into the southern half of the area.  So much of the day will be dry but after midnight is when the rain chances increase.

Rain will be likely for much of the day on Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the lower 80′s but it will be a bit cooler (in the upper70′s) on Monday due to the rain.  We dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 80.

Have a great weekend!
Tara
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A nice soaking rain hit the southern portion of the Miami Valley yesterday… with the northern counties missing out on the beneficial moisture:

This morning, with the low-level moisture high… we have seen some fog develop.  Visibility has been between a quarter and a half mile in the worst spots–especially across the southeast.  Otherwise, it’s cloudy and will likely stay that way through lunchtime.  There is a chance we’ll see the sun peek out this afternoon.  Without the rain around today… and with that chance of sun… highs are forecast to reach the low-mid 70s (yesterday was only 68!).

The weekend is still looking fairly decent, with a mix of sun and clouds both Saturday and Sunday.  We’ll enjoy a slow warming trend with upper 70s Saturday and lower 80s Sunday.  Rain chances also remain low through this timeframe:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms become more likely Sunday night into Monday, as a cold front heads our way.  We will cool slightly behind that front, but highs will still be in the mid-upper 70s Monday and Tuesday.

Have a great weekend!
Jamie
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The recent deadly tornado outbreak that affected El Reno, Oklahoma was originally classified as an EF 3, but on Tuesday the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma upgraded it to a an EF 5. The reason the National Weather Service upgraded the tornado was based on velocity data (wind data) from a mobile doppler radar from the University of Oklahoma. This radar called the RaXPol radar, measured wind speeds reaching 295 mph which would classify it as an EF 5 tornado. Normally the classification of a tornado is usually after the the National Weather Service conducts a survey of damage from the tornado.  But in this case, because the  mobile radar was able to obtain a better view of this violent tornado, the National Weather Service decided to do the upgrade.

In addition to the upgrade this tornado is being called the widest tornado or record, spanning 2.6 miles. And running a path of 16.2 miles in length that curved just south of El Reno.  For reference, the 2.6 miles would be equal to a trip from roughly 5th Street in Dayton to Dellwood in Oakwood, if you’re travelling in a straight line. Amazing!

This tornado is being blamed for at least 18 deaths, among those killed was Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and another chaser, Carl Young.  Tim Samaras is know for his research  on lightning and tornadoes, and was a well know storm chaser. And its likely that the path and the strength of this tornado, that likely grew within minutes, caught Tim and his crew off guard.

Tropics update:

Just north of the Yucatan Peninsula is an area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Mexico.  This system started to take on a circulation on Tuesday and does look a little more organized. This system is expected to move northward toward Florida, as it does so it could develop into a tropical depression.  The National Hurricane Center has a 50% chance for this system to develop into a tropical system within the next 48 hours. This system will likely bring unsettled weather to Florida and is expected to track along the East Coast. Image from National Hurricane Center:

 Thanks for reading and have a great afternoon!

-Jonathan

Yesterday was a picture perfect day across the Miami Valley!  We did start off a little cool, with many falling into the 40s, but we ended with sunshine and quite pleasant temperatures… here are the official numbers:

Hope you got to enjoy the beautiful weather.  We hit the park, with SPF 50 on, of course

This morning, temperatures are not AS cool, with a few more clouds in the area.  We will continue to see clouds at times today, but we are not expecting any rain.  Dry conditions continue through this evening–good news if you’re heading down to the Reds game (they play the Rockies at 7:10pm)… or if you will attend the City of Kettering’s annual neighborhood Block Party:

The rain chances increase slightly tonight–there is a boundary southeast of the Miami Valley… and a disturbance moving in from the northwest.  We see a 30% chance of a spotty shower or thunderstorm tonight, but not everyone will see rain.  This is one of the model solutions for tonight:

You can see that most DON’T get rain, so consider yourself lucky if you do!  Same story on Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but some places miss out completely.  It does look like the highest rain chances will be to the south and east:

Heading into the weekend, after a few showers possible through the first part of Friday… dry weather returns.  Friday will be mild, in the lower 70s, but we’ll be back up near 80 by Sunday!

Jamie
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High pressure to our north will bring about a bright afternoon ahead.  We expect full sunshine through a good part of the day, as temperatures warm into the mid-70s.  Not only will high temps reach the really pleasant mid-70s… but dew points will be low, so it will feel nice and comfortable with low humidity.  Yesterday the lower clouds took their time breaking up, but today we have nothing but clear sky to start off:

And that means a very high UV Index:

If you have fair skin, it will only take 15-20 min to burn, if you are not protecting it.  Apply & reapply that sunscreen!  We’ll see a few more clouds around on Wednesday, but the afternoon still looks dry.  It’s not until late Wednesday night and into Thursday that the rain chance returns:

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the heaviest rain falling to the south and east of Dayton.  Even though the end of the week will be unsettled, we won’t see a big drop in temperature… as we will continue with highs in the mid-upper 70s going through the weekend.

Jamie
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After a cool and refreshing morning in the 50s, this afternoon will be pleasant.  With temperatures running 7-10 degrees below normal across the area, we’ll see highs right around 70-degrees.  We are starting off with lots of cloud cover in parts of the Miami Valley, others have been enjoying a good deal of sunshine.  You can see this on the morning visible satellite image:

And here are some different images from our sky cams in areas that saw clouds vs. sun:

While Eaton started with sun, more clouds are drifting in from the north… but won’t last all day.  During the afternoon, the clouds will break up more and more, and we will stay dry.  High pressure stays with us right through mid-week… keeping things quiet, wtih  a slow warming trend:

The next chance of rain arrives on Wednesday night and scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely then through Thursday.  There could be a few lingering through the first part of Friday, with drier conditions back for the weekend.  Even though we’ll see rain, temperatures remain pretty consistent, with highs in the mid-upper 70s throughout the week.

Jamie
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After days of heat and humidity it’s time to give the AC a break and open the windows.  Everyone give that collective sigh “ahhhhh.”   The Miami Valley is already feeling the cooler drier air tonight and this will continue for the next several days.

Today we were right around normal for our highs but in the coming days temperatures will be  below normal.

The cooler/drier air can be seen by looking at our wind direction and dew points.

Winds are coming out of the north and west ushering in more cooler temperatures.  The lower dew points show there is less moisture in the air which means it will be less humid.

Right now there are very few isolated showers north and west of the Miami Valley.  Those may rotate through the area in the next few hours but many of us will remain dry.  Clouds have increased across the area and will stick around through the evening hours.

Overnight clouds begin to break up and we’ll see partly cloudy conditions with temperatures falling into the lower 50′s overnight.

We’ll start with a few clouds on Monday then look for lots of sunshine for the afternoon and Tuesday as well.

Temperatures will stay below normal with highs only near 70 but there’s a slow warm up for the end of the week.  Enjoy

Tara
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The Storm Prediction Center still has the Miami Valley in the “elevated” risk of severe weather but there is still not a clear sign whether or not we will definitely see strong storms.

There are few things that are inhibiting storm development.  Yesterday’s storms in Indiana and the Miami Valley have left behind some boundaries and clouds.  These are keeping some of the air a little more stable.

Right now I am keeping an eye on the radar however as of 6pm there are no storms popping in Kentucky or near Cincinnati.

Our latest run of FutureTrac suggests if storms do develop they will be a little more scattered than first thought earlier today.  The best chance of rain will be between 8pm and midnight.

By early Sunday morning any showers/storms that have formed will move eastward.  We’ll still see some morning cloud cover but some sunshine will come out during the afternoon.

There may be a few scattered showers in the afternoon Sunday but they will be on the light side.

Today’s high despite the cloud cover was close to 80.

Temperatures will cool below average for the first half of the new work week.  But we will see lots of sunshine.

Tara
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Well first off my name is Jonathan Marker and I am the weather intern here at WDTN. I am senior at Ball State University studying meteorology/climatology.  I have always had an interest in weather for as long as I can remember and I think what sparked my interest in weather was my excitement for  snow and winter weather. It was always interesting, living in the Miami Valley, to experience all the different types of weather from snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. I also have been a weather checker for WDTN for a few years and I am happy for the opportunity to learn and work with Brain, Jamie and, Tara this summer.

This afternoon we’ll experience more summer like temperatures as highs approach the mid 80′s with lots of sunshine. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon but most locations will stay dry. By Friday as a storm system approaches from the west our chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase with scattered showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. We’ll see a better chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the area especially Saturday night and into Sunday morning.   Both Friday and Saturday have the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms, as you can see:

After the front moves through the area we’ll see cooler temperatures  to near average with highs in the low to mid 70′s for the first part of next week under mostly sunny skies.

With the Atlantic hurricane season just 2 days away the tropics are already starting to become active with Tropical Depression Barbara that was first developed in the Eastern Pacific but, as of this writing, it is crossing into the Gulf of Mexico. Now it used to be that when a tropical cyclone crosses from the Eastern Pacific into the Atlantic, the names of the cyclone would change. However, that has since changed. The National Hurricane Center now says that when a named tropical cyclone crosses between the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic the name remains the same, unless the system weakens to a tropical disturbance and re-strengthens the name changes.  Here is the forecast path of Barbara:

Have a great day with our summer-like temperatures! And stay tuned for latest updates!

- Jonathan

High pressure is off to the east, and an area of low pressure across the central part of the country.  Between the two, we continue our southerly flow and the warming goes on, too:

A nice mild morning will be followed by a summer-like afternoon as highs climb into the mid-80s in the region.  It will be another great pool day, with dry conditions expected.  A lot of sun, however, means a very high UV Index… so be sure to put on the sun block… and re-apply regularly!

Very low rain chances continue on Thursday… however, as the humidity levels come up a bit, we couldn’t rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm tomorrow.  Futuretrac shows the areal coverage to be very little:

There is a better chance more will see rain on Friday afternoon, as a cold front nears the area.  However, the BEST chance of rain will be later on Saturday through Sunday morning.  The cold front comes through on Sunday, ending the rain chance… and also ushering in cooler weather for the start of next week.  Sound familiar?  Highs back in the lower 70s by Monday.

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A warm front is now north of the Miami Valley, and we are starting off with a southerly flow this morning:

Southwest winds will continue to pump in warmer and more humid air as we head through the next few days.  We did have a few showers/thunderstorms early this morning–mainly in the northern counties–as the front moved through.  Most of us will stay dry during the afternoon hours too–there is just a 30% chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm.  The best chance of rain will be across the northern counties… and the Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of the Miami Valley in the Elevated Risk for strong storms:

So if any thunderstorms develop today, we will have to watch for stronger winds and/or some hail.  Speaking of wind, we will see breezy conditions today, if not gusty as winds occasionally gust to 30mph this afternoon.  Highs do get back into the lower 80s today… mid-80s tomorrow… and upper 80s for Thursday.  After today’s slight rain chance, we will see mostly sunny skies and dry conditions through Thursday, too.

The next rain chance arrives Friday as  a slow moving cold front approaches the region.  Not everyone will see rain Friday, but a few pop-up showers/t’storms would be possible, mainly in the afternoon.  A better shot of rain will be later Saturday and into Sunday as the front actually moves through.  Temperatures will also drop as this occurs.

Enjoy the short week!
Jamie
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