Well here we are, November 5th… and we’re talking about 60-degree temperatures in the forecast!  Not just in the forecast, but in the weekend forecast!  Does it get any better?!

A cold front moved through overnight, and the cool air behind it will keep us just below normal this afternoon.  We’ll see lots of sunshine, but it will be breezy… with highs in the lower 50s.

It will be a COLD start Friday morning!  High pressure will be centered right over us, providing clear skies and light winds.  That is the perfect set-up for a good radiational cooling night!  We’ve talked about this before, but here is what happens on a night like tonight:

The heat of the day is able to escape back into the atmosphere very effectively without a cloud deck in place.  And cold air is dense air, so it sinks to the lowest places.  That’s why we’ll typically find the coldest readings in the lower-lying areas… valleys, etc.  After a cold start in the upper 20s on Friday, it will be a pretty seasonable afternoon.  High pressure will move off to our east, allowing winds to shift in from the southwest. 

That will put our afternoon highs right around normal, in the mid-50s.  Then the ridge builds in as we head into the weekend:

 Temperatures under this ridge will be in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday!  What great timing!  Perfect conditions to get out and finish those leaves!  OR to go do something FUN rather than yardwork… lol 

Oh, before I forget, here is that picture I promised of Halloween fun!  We had a Beggars day here at the staiton, where all employees got to bring in their kids to Trick-or-Treat!  My little Tinkerbell had a great time!

Jamie

Blue sky and sunshine… you can’t ask for better weather on this Election Day!  Take a look at the skies all over the Miami Valley this morning:

It looks like the sunshine will hang around all afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler today, with highs only in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.  That’s almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, but at least it will be a bright 50 and not a cloudy 50! 

The clouds move in tonight ahead of a cold front.  Again, there is not a lot of moisture for this weak front to work with, so we’re talking a slight chance of spotty showers on Wednesday.  The best chance will be in the afternoon and evening.  But with more clouds around, temps will be even cooler… highs in the upper 40s.

Behind the front, you guessed it, another shot of cool air.  Thursday:  mid 40s.  Friday:  near 50.

Then we get into the good stuff.  We’re still forecasting a big warm-up for the weekend… highs in the 60s!!

Jamie

A quick entry today… things are crazy around here!

We have a weak cold front heading our way.  Ahead of it, we’ll be right around normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 50s.  BUT we’ll be fighting increasing cloud cover and the chance to see a few light rain showers.  The best chance of rain will be along/north of I-70… but we can’t rule out a few spotty sprinkles in our southern counties.  Overall, everything will be light, as this front is lacking any real moisture.

Slightly cooler air will then work in for Tuesday… highs will be in the upper 40s.  And there’s no chance to warm up Wednesday, as another fast-moving system brings more clouds and even some showers to the area.

But then we head towards next weekend… and I’m liking what I’m seeing!

A big ridge building over the Eastern US.  That means sunshine and warmer temps!  Let’s see if it can hold.  Great holiday decorating weather… if you’re into that kind of thing this early! 

Jamie

Today is our last mild day… we’ll see highs near 70 degrees this afternoon.  But brace yourself for windy conditions, as Southerly winds will be up around 15-25 mph, with higher gusts.  We are on the very leading edge of the storm system, so a few spotty showers are not out of the question today.  BUT I seriously think MOST of the day will be dry.

The major storm we’ve been talking about has sparked Blizzard Warnings in parts of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska today:

They’re not necessarily going to see a lot more snow, but a little snow combined with high wind and blowing and drifting snow… that will reduce visibilities enough to prompt the blizzard conditions.

This storm has also caused extreme flooding from Louisiana through Arkansas.  Up to six inches of rain fell in an area that also experienced severe weather and tornadoes.  Here in Ohio, we are very lucky to be getting away with just rain, wind and cooler temperatures!

Our best chance of rain will be this evening and overnight.  Bad news for Operation Football, once again.  Here is the breakdown of rainchances:

At least it will be mild (although windy)!

And the last big thing going on… Beggars Night for most of the Miami Valley on Saturday night.  Good news:  dry weather is in the forecast!  It will, however, be chilly:

I hope you have a fun Halloween!  We are having all employees’ kids come through the station this afternoon for Trick-or-Treating!  I am sure we’ll run some video this evening/tonight on 2 News.  And I will also try to post some pics next week!

Jamie

Today will be the nicest day of the week… with some sunshine, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures.  We’ll be running about 10 degrees above average, with highs in the upper-60s.  Enjoy!

Things will change on Friday.  Just look at the upper level flow this morning:

Today we’re under the ridge, which is nice and warm.  But that big storm out west will head our way as we finish off the workweek.  Friday will still be a MILD day, with highs near 70… but it will be breezy and we’ll have the chance of rain really at any time.

Right now, the timing of everything is still a little up-in-the-air.  But to me, it looks like we could have some rain around in the morning… then a break in the afternoon/early evening… with more rain approaching late.  So that would be good news for area football games!  I can’t believe it’s the last Operation Football show, either… man, how time flies!  Anyway, here is the Op Football forecast:

Be sure to check back tomorrow, as we continue to do “nowcasting” on this major storm.

A cold front will come through Friday night, and rain will be likely behind the front overnight and into Saturday.  Will the rain linger around for Saturday night’s Trick-or-Treaters??  I’d say there’s just a slight chance of seeing some showers… but right now, it looks like most of it will be moving out!   Saturday evening will be cooler for the ghosts and goblins, so you may need to put some layers under those costumes.  Temps will be in the lower 50s and it will be breezy.  The cool air hangs around through much of next week!

I hope you all have a great day!  Erik is doing the noon, as I will be attending the Ribbon of Hope Luncheon, benefiting the Kettering Medical Foundation.

Jamie

Storm #1 is moving away from us this morning… taking the heavier rain with it.  And we did get some pretty heavy rain overnight!  Take a look at some of the totals from our Weather Bug Network:

Most locations saw between one and three quarters of an inch… but there were those isolated spots that got over an inch of rain.

Our center of low pressure will continue off to the east today, which means it might be a little damp/drizzly for game one of the World Series!  The clouds hang around with us, though… even though we’ll be dry this afternoon, we’ll stay mostly cloudy.

A weak area of high pressure will build in tonight.  That will bring about light winds, and with a little clearing, we’ll have to watch for the potential for fog formation.  We could be dealing with foggy conditions during the Thursday morning commute.

Thursday afternoon looks quite nice, however!  The sun will be out in full force, we’ll have a nice southeasterly breeze, and temperatures will climb into the upper 60s, close to 70.  Wow.  Best day out of the next seven!

The next storm moves in on Friday… and what a powerhouse storm it is!  Today, it’s producing snow out West:  Denver could see up to two FEET of snow:

For us, we will be on the warm side of the storm… so no snow in our forecast, just rain!  We could even hear some thunder Friday afternoon, and the winds will increase as the storm approaches. 

Jamie

We’ll enjoy another mild day, with highs in the low-to-mid 60s across the area.  But you’ll see more clouds than yesterday, and they will continue to thicken up throughout the day.  By late afternoon/evening, we run the chance of showers.  You can see our next storm system off to our southwest this morning:

That area of low pressure will work up towards us, bringing a very good shot of rain overnight tonight into early Wednesday morning.  Most locations will see relatively light rainfall amounts, but some spots could come close to a half-inch or so… especially the southern half of the Miami Valley.

On the back side of this storm, we’ll be a bit cooler for Wednesday afternoon.  But pretty close to normal, with highs near 60 degrees.  Then, Indian Summer returns for Thursday!  Highs will be in the lower 70s, with dry conditions.  A few communities have Beggar’s Night on Thursday… here’s your GREAT forecast:

Looking at the national Satellite/Radar this morning, you’ll see two storms on the map.  Storm #1, we’ve already talked about… that one will hit us overnight.  Note Storm #2 out in the Western part of the country:

That one will arrive on Friday with wind and rain… even a few thunderstorms possible.  I know, it’s not fair for the Friday night football fans… another soggy night on the field, and in the stands.    The good news, while it may rain early Saturday… it does look to dry out Saturday night for the rest of the Trick-or-Treaters! 

Jamie

I am back from the National Weather Association conference!  It was a great conference; all centered on the future of weather technology!  I attended some great sessions on Dual Polarization, PHased Array Radar, NextGen and the 4D Weather Data Cube, and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar.  VERY cool to see what is currently in limited use… and what is coming our way soon!  Stay tuned for some very exciting advances in our radar system!

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of attending the Bengals/Bears game down in Cincinnati.  I’m not a fan of either team, but it was SUCH a nice day to watch football!  So we enjoyed this unseasonably warm weather to the fullest… I hope you did, too!

Temperatures will continue to run above normal this week… a welcome trend, I am sure!  Today look for highs in the mid-60s–a little warmer than yesterday.  Tuesday also looks like a nice day, with highs continuing in the mid-60s and dry conditions.  A storm system will bring in moisture by Tuesday evening, however… increasing our rain chances.  You can see on the model below, most of the rain will stay to our south, but we will have some showers in our area:

The chance of rain will continue into Wednesday morning, but then we dry out again for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.  That’s when the Indian Summer weather really heats up… with highs in the lower 70s Thursday afternoon!  Of course, it can’t last too long… another storm will move in Friday, bringing in wind, rain and cooler temperatures for the weekend.

Jamie

For the last few days we have been enjoying some sun, and finally some warmer temperatures!  But it doesn’t look as if they are going to last much longer.  A large system out in the plains is slowly heading this way.  While we are already seeing the clouds, the rain will be soon to follow.  Between our computer model and the NAM (both pictured below) i looks as if the heaviest rain will be off to our west, with most of our area seeing between .5 to1.5 inches of rain.  While the heaviest rain looks like it will fall late Thursday night and Friday morning… shower will continue throughout the day and even the majority of Saturday.  High temperatures will also drop… most locations will struggle to get into the lower 50 come Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  Stay warm…. and Dry!

Check out the Calendar above…   If you look closely you will see only one day in October with a positive number… and is only a one above.  That means that we have had only one day this month with above average temperatures.  Over the last eight days 6 where over ten degrees below normal.  So far this month, it has been cold.  But thankfully nothing more then a couple flakes of wet snow have come with these abysmal temperatures.

Twenty years ago today we had a record snowfall of 4.8 inches.  While a snow like that is rare for the area they do happen.  Thankfully for us this cold weather is beginning to move out.  A ridge is beginning to build in which will get our temperatures back up to perhaps even surpassing our average highs.

Hey, if you liked yesterday’s weather… you’re in luck!!  Today we’ll do it again!  Cloudy, rainy and CHILLY… as temperatures continue to run below normal.  We are half-way through the month of October, and are well below normal for the month so far… by -5.7 degrees!  I don’t like the way this looks for our winter forecast… (read:  cold!)  Although I believe the weather pattern is still setting up, so we need to give it a little more time before we get a good feel.

This morning’s steadier rain will taper off, and we’ll be left with areas of mist/drizzle this afternoon.  A few light showers are also possible.  Just gray and damp!

Yesterday I mentioned ice pellets in Tipp City… well they also saw some snowflakes mixing in later in the morning!  I have had several reports of that… even from Jeff Stevens at Mix 107.7.  He thought he saw a few flakes near the Fairfield Commons Mall last night.  Totally possible.

On Facebook and Twitter… all anyone is talking about is the cold wet weather!  Here is a ray of hope for all of you who miss those pleasant fall days:

That is the GFS model forecasting a ridge to build in next week. That means warmer temperatures… back up near normal… in the low-to-mid 60s!!  Hang in there!

Jamie

Get ready for the chilliest (is that a word?) stretch of the fall season. Temperatures will only be in the 40s for highs the next few days, with lows dipping into the mid-30s.  We’ll also remain quite unsettled.  Here is what’s happening… we’re in a northwest flow aloft… that will keep us cool:

And also, note the little “vort maxes” or areas of maximum vorticity that will move through the flow, keeping us with a chance of rain (these are the yellow areas, with x’s).  The rain is spreading through most of the Miami Valley this morning.  I’ve even had a report of some small ice pellets mixing in up in Tipp City!

It looks like we’ll stick with a pretty steady rain through early afternoon.  Then later today, there will be a drier period (although a shower is still possible at any time).  Our highs today will almost be 20-degrees below normal!

Thursday and Friday will also be quite chilly and unsettled.  Friday night into Saturday morning, we could even see a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain… yikes!

Jamie

Temperatures started off sort of mild this morning.  When I came to work at 4am, we had readings that were still in the mid-50s!  But we continue to fall as brisk Northwest winds are bringing in some colder air.  40s are becoming more common, and we’ll only be in the mid-upper 50s this afternoon.  Normal highs this time of year are still in the mid-60’s… so we continue our “cool” stretch!

A storm is strengthening to our Southwest, and will move just south of us over the next 24 hours.  This will bring the chance of rain for Wednesday, especially for the southern half of our area:

We remain unsettled both Thursday and Friday as an upper feature and colder air moves in.  A chance of rain continues both of these days, as well.  Friday it looks like we may not crack 50-degrees!

I have officially mentioned snowflakes this morning, too.    Yes… could see some flurries as early as Friday night/Saturday.  Nothing major, but yes, times they are a-changin’!

Jamie

A front is near the Miami Valley this morning, and a wave of low pressure will ride along that front, keeping us with wet weather through the day.  We may see some breaks in the rain here and there… but overall, expect a soggy day with periods of rain through the evening hours.  We do have a FLOOD WATCH in effect through this evening.  Here is the set up:

I expect the southern counties to have the highest rainfall amounts before all is said and done.  Generally 1 to 2″… with some isolated spots with up to 3″ of rain.  Tonight’s high school football games will likely be sponsored by Clorox, as there will be a LOT of mud!  The good news… rain will generally be tapering off as the games go on:

If you have plans to head to the Sauerkraut Festival in Waynesville this weekend, it looks dry but cool:

Have fun!
Jamie

It is still windy out there this morning, but the winds will tend to die down throughout the afternoon as an area of high pressure builds in from the West.  We are in-between storms today and tonight.  Changes will come on Thursday.

Take a look at the upper level flow.  There is cut-off low over the Southwestern US this morning:

Click to enlarge

A stronger wave will dive down from Canada and the northern and southern streams of the jet will phase together.  Here’s the 500 mb forecast for Thursday evening:

Click to enlarge

The storm will head our way, increasing the chance of rain late Thursday… Thursday night… and throughout the day on Friday.  This powerful storm has the potential to be very wet, as it also taps into some Gulf moisture… so heavy rain is possible!  Here is the rainfall forecast from both the GFS and the NAM as of early this morning:

Click to enlarge GFS

Click to enlarge NAM

You can see there is a narrow band of very heavy rain (over 2-3 inches), and then it greatly tapers off to lower amounts on either side.  Just a shift 50 miles or so will have a huge impact on who sees that heavy rain.  Imagine how stressed out we would be if this were a snow storm!  But it’s not… we’re still talking about rain… and we’ll continue to watch each model run very carefully to pinpoint who will see the most rainfall.  Right now, it looks like it will be some of our northern counties.

Jamie

Monday was a beautiful day here… lots of sunshine and highs climbed into the upper 60s.  We will again be in the upper 60s today, but we’ll see more in the way of cloud cover as the next storm moves in.

First, a warm front will move through early today:

I think temperatuares have the potential to be higher this afternoon, but there is just going to be too much cloud cover around.   The trailing cold front will pass through tonight.  Scattered showers and even a thunderstorm are possible beginning in the late afternoon hours (after 2pm)… but the best chance will be this evening and overnight with the cold front.  Winds will also be gusting up to 30-35 mph as the front comes through and cooler air spills into the region.

Wednesday looks to be dry, breezy and cool… but then another storm will affect us late Thursday and Friday.  This one could bring some heavy rain to the region, but where will it set up?  Here is a look at two very different models… first the GFS, which keeps most of the heavy rain to our north:

But now take a look at the NAM… this has us with around 2″ of rain!

Somebody is going to get some heavy rain at the end of the week… but will it be us?  And will the rain leave the area in time for Friday night football?  These are things we will be answering as the week goes on.  Behind this system, we’re also watching some of the coldest air of the season… that could be working in just in time for the weekend!

Have a great day,
Jamie

We’ve had both frost and fog this morning… the fog particularly dense along parts of I-70.  We’ve received several reports of low visibilities near 235 and Rt. 4.  But other locations saw nothing at all, and have started the day with mostly sunny skies.  The picture below, taken just after 8:30 am, shows the sunshine… and I circled the area affected by the fog in the distance:

I’ve also had reports of frost across Miami, Champaign and Preble counties.  On Twitter, reports are coming in with frost in Huber Hts.  BUT… the sunshine will win out, and it looks to be a very bright afternoon.  Afternoon highs both today and Tuesday will be warmer than over the weekend.  Saturday and Sunday we only made it up to 62 degrees, but we should be into the upper 60s today, which will feel nice!

High pressure will move off to the east on Tuesday, and our next storm will approach.  Right now it looks like the best chance of rain will be later in the day… and overnight:

Wednesday looks dry, but we’ll have to watch another storm that could bring quite a bit of rainfall to parts of the Ohio Valley late Thursday and into Friday.  We’ll keep you posted.

Have a great week!
Jamie

As expected, parts of the Miami Valley had some frost this morning!  Temperatures ranged from the upper 30s in town to the lower 30s in the outlying areas.  John Kingham, our Weatherchecker in Tipp City, recorded a temperature of 31 degrees!  Last night, he even set a dish of water out on the porch… and it had a thin layer of ice on it this morning!  Here are some frost pictures from Englewood:

Thanks to Charles Kaiser for sending them in.  If you would ever like to share weather photos, just email them to weather@wdtn.com or upload them to the “2 News Sunrise” Facebook page!

I think the colder air inspired me to get out all my fall decorations yesterday!  I put up the fall leaves and pumpkins when I got home from work!  Today, I might dig into the Halloween stuff…. we have fun putting that up

We’ll see lots of sunshine through the first part of the day, but expect clouds to increase late this afternoon.  Our next storm will move in tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms.  Friday looks wet, too, with scattered showers and thunderstorms… especially before the noon hour.  It does look like we’ll se a break in the rain during the afternoon, but we could get a few more showers working in late in the evening.  So the football games will likely not be rained-out… but could be a little damp.

The weekend looks cool, with highs Saturday only near 60, and mid-60s on Sunday.  There still could be some lingering showers Saturday, but we should dry out for the 2nd half of the weekend!

Have a great Friday Eve! 
Jamie

It’s a chilly start this morning, as temperatures are in the upper 40s across much of the Miami Valley.  Tomorrow morning, however, will be even colder!  In fact, by early Thursday, we will likely see the coldest temperatres since April!

The National Weather Service has issued a FROST ADVISORY for our area tonight, as patchy frost is possible:

The reason?  We have a cooler fall airmass in place, and as high pressure builds right over us tonight, that will allow winds to die down and skies to clear:

These are perfect conditions for radiational cooling.  Any heat of the day will *really* be able to escape back out into the atmosphere.  The coldest spots will be the lower-lying areas, and locations away from buildings, trees or other objects.

Thursday afternoon looks great, however.  After that cold start, we’ll warm up into the upper 60s with lots of sunshine.  You may notice some clouds increasing towards the end of the day, however, as our next storm approaches.  That will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area on Friday.

Jamie

It is fall, it is fall.
The leaves are falling everywhere!
That means it’s fall!

That is a song from my daughter’s favorite childrens’ educational programming!    It is so funny as she gets older, she is starting to sing these songs… and do the dance moves, too!  She also sings songs I don’t know, which she must get from her friends at “school”.  I did decipher the “Baby Bumble Bee” song… but there is another one that goes, “How, how… how, how”… and I have NO idea what she is saying!  Lol…

Anyway, back to the original song… it is DEFINITELY feeling like fall today!  Morning temperatures range from the mid-40s to low-50s across the region.  I have been calling this “cool”… but I’ve had a few viewers chime in on Twitter/Facebook… they think it’s actually cold!  Well, if today is cold for you… it’s going to be a looong winter!    We will actually be even cooler on Thursday morning, as an area of high pressure builds right over us:

Skies will be clear, and winds will be light.  Combine that with our already cool fall airmass… and we have a recipe for patchy light frost!  Thursday morning’s temperatures will likely be in the mid-to-upper 30s… so some locations just might see the first frost of the season.  If you have vegetation you would like to save, that is the morning tender plants will be in jepordy!

Jamie