Hey, what a wonderful day!  It’s FRIDAY… and the weather is still GREAT!  I hope you will be able to enjoy it today and tomorrow before changes head our way for Saturday night/Sunday.

We should still see quite a bit of sunshine this afternoon, even though high clouds will be drifting in from the West.  Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, with readings into the mid-60s.  Saturday will also be a mild day… again in the mid-60s, but clouds will be on the increase.  Late Saturday afternoon and into the evening, we could also see a few spotty showers across the area.  But a better chance of rain comes Saturday night and Sunday as an area of low pressure works just south of us:

Right now, it looks like we remain warm enough for rain as the storm moves by, but we could see a few wet snowflakes mix in late Monday.  Temperatures will be much cooler… with highs in the mid-40s Monday afternoon.  That will feel quite chilly after the mild readings we’ve had this week!

Many area water-ways are still running high, and flooding is a major concern for parts of the Midwest.  Significant river flooding is already occuring in parts of the Central US:

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And we’re not out of the woods here in the Miami Valley, either.  Some of our local waterways are still running high, and Spring showers are not far off.  We do have an elevated risk of flooding as we head through the next several weeks:

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So while high water is on our minds… let’s talk a little bit about flood safety.  The one thing to remember:  “Turn around, don’t drown!”  Here are some great tips from our friends down at the National Weather Service:

*  Monitor your NOAA Weather radio, or your favorite news source (Channel 2, of course!) for vital weather related information.

*  If flooding occurs, get to higher ground.  Get out of areas subject to flooding.  This includes dips, low spots, canyons, washes, etc.

* Avoid areas already flooded, especially if the water is flowing fast.  Do not attempt to cross flowing streams.

*  Road beds may be washed out under flood waters.  Never drive through flooded roadways.

*  Do not camp or park your vehicle along streams and washes, particularly during threatening conditions.

*  Be especially cautious at night, when it’s harder to recognize flood dangers. 

And another note… next week is Severe Weather Awareness Week here in Ohio.  So you may hear those tornado sirens being tested!  The statewide tornado drill will happen at 9:50am on Wednesday, March 24th!  Remember to stay with Channel 2 throughout severe weather season for the latest on any Watches or Warnings in your neighborhood!

Have a great weekend!!
Jamie

Basketball begins today… but thankfully, the March Madness-weather will hold off until the weekend!  We still have a few more days to enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s.  Normal highs are closer to 50 degrees, so we’re running more than 10 degrees above those numbers! 

And sunshine will be abundant again today, with high clouds making a return through the day on Friday.  By Saturday, we’ll see increasing clouds with a slight chance of a spotty shower late in the day.

A better chance of rain will come Saturday night and Sunday, as a cold front moves through.  This front will also bring in a big drop in temperatures.  Take a look at the trend… we drop off for the second half of the weekend:

There could even be a few wet snowflakes around early next week, as the colder air works in.  It does not look like much will stick, but after such great weather… seeing snow is just wrong!    I hope you enjoy the last few days of 60s before these changes work in!

Jamie

As the week goes on, things will become brighter and warmer!  But this morning we are still dealing with some clouds… and fog.

The satellite image shows how skies have been clearing from north to south this morning:

Where clouds have cleared (in the north), we have fog!  In Lima, visibility has been down under a quarter of a mile, and there Wapakoneta schools are running on a two hour delay because of the fog.  In the southern viewing area, things have not been that bad.  We’re still up around 9 miles visibility at the airport, WPAFB and down by the Dayton Mall.

As the day goes on, eventually everyone will see sunshine!  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon… it will be a nicer day for sure!  And temperatures will respond under the sun, as we warm into the mid-50s!

Here’s a look at how the rest of the week will play out.  Each day with more sunshine, and warmer temps:

Don’t forget to wear green tomorrow!  One of the hazards of this job is not being able to wear green because of the weather wall.  If we wear a true green, we will disappear because the wall is green, too!  I don’t like getting pinched, so I’ve decided to take the day off.  Ha!  No, I’m actually switching days with Erik so he can visist with his family this weekend… so he will be here for St. Patrick’s Day.  Hopefully he can find a shade of green that works!  Anyway, here’s the forecast… looks like we’ll be lucky!

Enjoy the warm-up!
Jamie

While we are not officially in Spring just yet, the last few days have really felt like it.  Temperatures in the 60s came to an end on Friday as the first thunderstorms of the season moved through.  Most locations picked up between .5 to about an inch of rain Friday evening.  Then a fairly persistent band of rain stuck around Friday night into Saturday bringing in another period of moderate rain.  Even on Sunday scattered showers added to totals bringing storm totals up to 2 inches for many locations.  On the left are some of the higher totals sent in by our weather checkers.  (more rainfall totals listed below, feel free to add your own)  The other image shows the estimated 24 hour rainfall totals as of Saturday evening.  Notice the yellow band from just south of Richmond through Preble, Montgomery, Miami, and over towards Sidney and Springfield.  While the estimates appear to be a touch on the high side, most of the locations in yellow received close to 2 inches of rain.  Areas in green about an inch to an inch and a half, blue areas half an inch to an inch.  Even on Sunday night the clouds are still hanging around and with so much moisture in the air it looks as if the drizzle, fog, and mist will only get worse as the night goes on.  Some good news, while it may not seem like it, is actually with temperatures.  While things may seem raw and cold, it looks as though temperatures will hold above the freezing mark.  With this kind of weather and the persistence of the fog, mist, drizzle.. ice could be a big issue… but as of right now it looks as though it will not be a problem for us.

Its always a stuggle to see when a system like this will finally pull out and how long the low level clouds will stick around.  By looking at this map it seems as though there is enough cold air aloft and even a few slight precipitation returns (not only in the NAM but the GFS as well) that low statoform clouds should stick around for much of the day.  Also, if any sunshine does pop out early… and surface heating will just cause more cloud cover to form.  Either way, Monday will not be the nicest.  Tuesday looks like a different story as the sun returns, however with light winds out of the north temperatures will be slow to rebound back into the 60s.  – Erik Zarnitz

Here are some additional rainfall totals from Friday night through Sunday night.  Thanks weather checkers!  If you have any additions totals you’d like to add please list them below.

Beavercreek 2.02

Cedarville 1.69

Centerville 2.15

Fairborn 1.45

Greenville 1.73

Kettering 2.3

New Carlisle 1.9

Piqua 1.85

Sidney 1.7

Tipp City 1.8

Sidney 1.7

Tipp City 1.8

Union 1.6

Xenia 1.8

Yellow Springs 2.03

This morning, we’re starting off with patchy dense fog across the region.  The reason… lots of low level moisture!  We’ve picked up a little over a tenth of an inch of rain in the past 24 hours… AND the ground is extremely saturated from the snowmelt.  Skies cleared out a bit overnight… and BAM!  We’re left with low visibilities this morning.  We have numerous school delays because of this!  Here’s a look at just how low they are out there if you’re heading out soon:

Matt sent us this shot from his place in Beavercreek… says the fog is pretty bad all along the Montgomery/Greene Co. line in that area:

The fog should burn off as the sun continues to rise… warming temps.  But I think we’ll be mostly cloudy for much of the day.  As we head into late afternoon and early evening, we have the chance for showers and thunderstorms.  It looks like anytime after 4pm it could be wet… and the rain will continue overnight.  The Severe Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed us in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather this afternoon and evening:

Our biggest severe threat will be hail… and the potential for an isolated tornado.  We will, of course, keep you posted on any watches or warnings on Channel 2, and on www.wdtn.com.  Strong thunderstorms will be entirely dependent on how much destabilization we see during the afternoon.  The best chance will be between 4 and 8pm!

We will remain rainy tonight and Saturday as the main storm approaches from the southwest.  Showers and thunderstorms could produce some heavier rain in spots, so the potential is still there for some localized flooding problems.  A few showers linger on Sunday, but a drying trend works in for next week!

On to the KLA update!  As many of you know, I am enrolled in the 2009/2010 class of the Kettering Leadership Academy.  This is a program that you are selected to be in by city representatives… and you learn all about the city and the different people and programs that make it work.  This month, we focused on Public Safety!  We started out at the Kettering Police Department, where we got a tour of the station… including the new dispatch room (impressive!) and the shooting range.  One of the officers showed off the different guns, and did a shooting demo for us, so we could see the difference in accuracy and firepower.  Being pregnant, they had me enclosed in a booth, just to be safe (with the threat being lead exposure).  They did offer a chance to shoot a gun to some of my classmates… but they declined. 

Next, we headed outside to meet the K9 units!  We met a black lab named Bandit, and a German Shepard named Brix.  It was amazing as they both came upon a staged car and found the drugs the officers hid inside.  It was really like a game to them… they got a prize after they found the bad stuff, and their tails were wagging the whole time.  They were also pretty excited to find some objects the officers hid in the grassy/tree area nearby.  A screwdriver, and a police badge.  I couldn’t believe how fast they found the items!  They basically search an area for “things that don’t belong”… which could be disposed-of-evidence in a case.  Bandit will sit on an item and bark until recognized/rewarded, but Brix puts the item in his mouth and puts up a fight to give it up… quite entertaining!  We also watched Brix apprehend a “suspect”… man that dog is strong!  You can read more about the K9 unit here:  KETTERING POLICE DEPARTMENT K9 UNIT.

Police Chief Jim O’Dell then spoke with us about the challenges of police officers and the Chief of Police position.  One of the things that stuck with me was the fact that these officers often have to make life-or-death decisions in a matter of seconds.  How clearly would you be thinking in a moment of huge adrenaline rush?  Talk about stress on the job! 

After leaving the Police Department, we headed over to Fire Station #33.  Kettering has seven fire stations… numbered 31 through 37.  The reason for the high numbers is because they are actually a part of a COUNTY numbering system, to make it easier when multiple cities respond to any given fire.  Anyway, the guys there cooked us some lunch and we briefly spoke with Chief Bob Miles about the department and its operations.  Kettering has about 100 volunteer firefighters… and it always amazes me how these people donate a good chunk of their time… and put their lives on the line… all as volunteers!!

The crew had gear waiting for us out back, so we headed out to play dress up!  I could not believe how HEAVY the clothing is!  The jacket and pants alone are like 20 pounds, and the boots add an extra 10.  It wasn’t bad at first, but once I had been wearing it for awhile, I did have to sit down!  We first got to try entering a “burning” building to put out a fire.  The hose was set to only half-pressure for us… but that was still unbelievably heavy/hard to maneuver!  Being cautious with the pregnancy, I had some help on this drill.  Thanks to Shift Commander, Nick Hosford for assisting! 

We entered the structure, and got to actually spray the hose… and using two people learned how to lift/drop the hose to hit different areas.

Next, was the “Smoke House”.  I did not participate in this drill, because of the pregnancy… but I got to see my classmates put on the air packs… which weighed an additional 30 pounds, by the way!  The airpacks contain compressed air, and in a fire situation might last 9 to 20 minutes.  They are completely sealed around your face, to let no contaminated air in… and are (as one of my classmates found) not good if you are claustrophobic!!  They also demonstrated their thermal imaging cameras, which I did get to see.  In a dark room full of heavy smoke, you can CLEARLY make out bodies.  The firefighters told us besides the air packs, this is one of the greatest inventions in fire rescue.

Last, we got to tear apart a car!  This was to demonstrate rescue for a car accident.  Once again, there were heavy, heavy tools we used to remove the doors from the car… VERY powerful tools!  And some more manual items that allowed us to cut/smash out the windows.  We also discussed the paramedic-side to being a firefighter, as most of the calls are for EMTs. 

Overall, we gained new admiration for our firefighters, and really those around the country.  We were only doing minimal training… THEY do much more than that weekly, and in actual emergencies… they put their lives on the line to save others.  It is truly amazing, and definitely not for everyone!  Kudos to the people in our community that help keep us safe!!

We will be running a story on the Kettering Leadership Academy tonight during the 5-6:30 newscasts… so I hope you can catch it!

Have a great weekend,
Jamie

An are of low pressure across the Central US is still slowly heading our way.  It has pushed a warm front into the Miami Valley this morning, and has brought some scattered showers.  Rainfall amounts have been light, though.  Most locations have just picked up a few one-hundredths in the bucket.  Here is this morning’s set-up:

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Notice our morning temperature… 49 degrees!  Wow, that’s a couple degrees ABOVE our normal HIGH for the day!  Once that warm front lifts a little farther north, we will be well into the “warm sector” of the storm system.  This should ensure a relatively quiet afternoon.  We still can’t rule out a spotty shower, but mostly dry weather will be in place from noon or 1pm on.  We will continue to see some clouds around, but despite this, we should still push into the 60s for highs today.

As we head into Thursday and Friday, we start to see a little more lift as each piece of energy moves through and the main storm gets closer.  Here is what both models are forecasting for Thursday evening.  First the NAM:

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And now the GFS:

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We are looking at the 700mb level, about 10,000 feet up in the atmosphere.  The green color represents moisture… relative humidity.  The red lines and numbers you see denote rising motion (the lower the number, the greater the lift).  If this pans out, it could mean some heavier downpours for us… perhaps even a few thunderstorms.  The threat of severe weather is low… as we are lacking in instability, but some locations could pick up a half-inch or more if you get a thunderstorm.  The ground is already saturated from snow-melt, so there could be some ponding and/or minor flooding issues. 

We continue to stay active as we head into the weekend.  See yesterday’s blog on this slow-moving storm… not much has changed!!

Jamie

We’ll continue to enjoy readings well above normal through the rest of the week.  Normal highs are now up to 47 degrees… and we should beat that by about 10 degrees today!  More of the same for Wednesday and Thursday as we come close (and perhaps up to) 60 degrees!  Our warmest stretch of the year so far!

It has been nice the past several days, to enjoy lots of sunshine with the warmer readings.  Here is a beautiful shot Mike Zander captured while enjoying a day off in Troy yesterday.  Check out that bright blue sky!

The combination of warmer temperatures and sunshine have caused rapid melting of snow across the area, too.  Jonathan Marker of Eaton sends us this photo of some minor flooding in his yard, where the piles of snow have quickly diminished:

Although the warmer temperatures will continue, we are going to see some changes.  Today, you’ll notice increasing clouds as we head into the afternoon hours.  And by this evening, a chance of scattered showers works in.  This is due to an area of low pressure across the Plains, which will help push a warm front across the Miami Valley:

This storm is going to be a slow-mover.  Notice over the next several days, it creeps its way toward the Miami Valley.  Here is Wednesday, expect some spotty showers:

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Thursday, even more rain… could even hear a few rumbles of thunder:

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Friday, cloudy and rainy:

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Saturday, still some showers around:

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Once the storm passes over us and off to the East, some colder air will work in for Sunday and the beginning of next week.  highs will go from the 50s and 60s down into the 40s.  ‘Tis the season for ups and downs!

Don’t forget… THIS SATURDAY is Dayton Skywarn’s Storm Spotter Training class!  If you’ve always had a fascination with weather (and I’m guessing you have, if you’re reading this blog)… now is your chance to learn about severe storms!  How they form… what to look for… and how to report severe weather to keep others safe!  Here are the details:

WHAT:  Dayton Skywarn Severe Storm Spotter Training
WHEN:  This Saturday, March 13th from 9am until Noon
WHERE: Miami Valley Hospital, Berry Building Auditorium
THIS IS OPEN TO THE PUBLIC… AND **FREE**!!

Erik and I will be there, too… hope to see you!
Jamie

Some of you commented on Twitter earlier tonight (My twitter account WDTN_Erik ) and wanted to know a little more about X-Vision, a new tool we use on Live Doppler 2x.  Here are two examples of what I’m talking about.  The first image shows “normal” radar reflectivity’s to the south and X-Vision to the north.  Doesn’t look like very much from this angle.  However when you take a look at the next image you can see a 3-D representation of the storm.  When you look at a normal radar image there is one level of radar data plotted.  Usually the lowest sweep (.05 degrees).  Many National Weather Service radars scan multiple levels of the atmosphere. (1,1.5,2 degree ect.)  With some new technology we can now display those levels and examine what is going in with in the storm.  While these images aren’t all that impressive (which is fine since we are not dealing with powerful storms just yet!) it gives us a good idea of what we are looking at.  In a thunderstorm kind of situation we can peel back the layers, exposing a hail core.  These 3-D representations can also help us identify updrafts, downdrafts, (B.W.E.R) Bounded Weak Echo Regions, and many other phenomenathat help us to distinguish exactly where the severe weather is most likely happening.  Thankfully tonight, no severe weather, but I figured that I could use a little practice with the technology, and the viewers may want to get familiar with it before the big storms roll in!

Now for the some information on todays weather.  The system that rolled in on Sunday evening was fairly weak, however it did put down some decent rains.  As of 9:30 pm the heaviest rain fell just east of Eaton.  Places like Lewisburg and New Lebanon coming in with over a half inch of rain.  The good news…. yes, this was RAIN for a change and not snow!!  That will also be the trend as we head through the week. 

The same system that brings us the clouds, rain, and mild weather by midweek also brings colder air as it moves away.   On Thursday the system will gradually move east and regenerate along the eastern seaboard.  At that point the coastal low will begin pulling down colder air from the north… So get ready, we could see a few more snowflakes in the forecast by late next weekend!

As high pressure continues to dominate our weather, we see the typical COLD mornings followed by the chilly (but really not too bad) afternoons.  Today’s morning temperatures have been in the teens across most of the Miami Valley.  With high pressure bringing the clear skies and light winds, it is a perfect Radiational Cooling set-up.  We’ve gone over this concept before, but just for a refresher… here is how clouds keep us warmer at night:

And so then on a clear night, we cool off a lot more efficiently:

We will have good Radiational Cooling again tonight into Saturday morning.  Something else to note, cold air is dense air, so it will sink to the lowest spots.  That is why some locations will be perhaps 5 degrees colder than other locations.  One of the most notorious low-lying cold spots in the Miami Valley is actually Miami County!  Piqua, Troy and Tipp City often have colder readings than other locations in the early morning hours.

BUT the sunshine will warm us rather quickly as we head into the afternoon!  We’ll make more than a 15-degree jump by lunchtime… with temperatures in the mid-30s at noon.  Our high should be right around 40 degrees.

We’ll finally come back up to normal readings over the weekend, with highs in the mid-40s both Saturday and Sunday.  I think Sunday has the potential to be even warmer, but that weak upper level disturbance is still progged to bring some clouds and perhaps a spotty shower to the area by late in the day.  The slow-moving storm that will move in from the West looks to be moving a little *slower*… so the chance of rain for early next week has been pushed back a few days.  Now it looks to be more towards the middle part of the week.  We’ll keep you posted!

Enjoy your weekend!!
Jamie

HERE COMES THE SUN!  And I say… it’s allright….

The song of the day, and what a happy little song at that!  Today’s weather should also make you feel happy.  Well, unless you want another 2 feet of snow!  In that case, this will have to do:

LOL!  Thanks to one of our viewers for sharing that photo.

High pressure is just off to our West, and that will keep things bright and sunny around here as we head through the next few days.  It will still be chilly, however, as we are going to be on the front side of that high both today and Friday.  Remember air around high pressure flows clockwise, so you can see where our winds will be coming from:

That northerly flow will likely keep us in the upper 30s.  But then Saturday hits, and the high will be right over us, eventually moving off to our east.  That will finally allow the warm-up to really take hold.  We’ll see mid-40s Saturday, with upper 40s possible on Sunday.  Again, we’ll be fighting some cloud cover Sunday afternoon as that weak disturbance moves through.  There could be a spotty shower, but most locations look to stay dry. 

The chance of showers will be in the forecast through the first half of next week as a slow-moving storm approaches from the west.  And, yes, it should be warm enough to keep most precip as rain.

Enjoy your Friday EVE!!
Jamie

OK, we’ll have to deal with the clouds and chilly temperatures for just one more day!  Then the sun will break out Thursday and we should be well on our way to a warm-up.  Here’s our forecast for the next few days:

The weekend will be very nice; particularly on Saturday.  Sunday, we will probably have to deal with more clouds around, which will likely keep high temps in check, as we stay in the upper 40s.  The reason… a weak upper-level feature (storm #1) will swing through:

There is not a lot of moisture, so the chance of showers will be low… but it’s something to keep an eye on.  A better chance for rain will come Monday and Tuesday as that stronger storm (#2) approaches us.

Hey, I want to remind you all that the National Weather Service is holding it’s annual Storm Spotter Training sessions all around the Miami Valley.  You can take an approximately 4 hour course and learn all about severe weather… what to look for, how to report it, and your reports will help others stay safe!  Here is the link to the schedule:  NWS STORM SPOTTER TRAINING.  Erik and I will actually be at the Montgomery County training class, at Miami Valley Hospital on March 13th.  We certainly hope to see some of you there!!

Jamie

On my way into work early this morning, I actually saw two bunnies out and about.  I haven’t seen that in a LONG time!  So they may either be running low on food… or it’s a sign that Spring is coming!  I like to think the latter.    Someone also sent me a bunny pic today:

Thanks to Francie in Springfield for sharing this cute photo.  Although, Pam and I agree we’d prefer a chocolate bunny right about now!

We’re staying a little chilly so far this week because of a storm system moving to our south.  Air around low pressure flows counter-clockwise… so we will continue to see a northerly wind here in the Dayton area, keeping temperatures below normal:

The storm will also keep us with some cloud cover through the middle part of the week.  However, if you live in the Northern Miami Valley… up toward Mercer, Auglaize, Darke, Logan and Shelby counties… you may see more sunshine today and Wednesday, as you may be JUST out of the reach of the cloud deck.  We could also see a passing flurry where the clouds are in place, both today and Wednesday.  But it looks like we’re missing out on any significant snowfall.  This storm is bringing wintry weather to parts of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas.  It is going to stay just far enough south to keep us out the messy weather.

Then, something wonderful happens.  Well, I guess it’s only wonderful if you’re looking forward to Spring!  The sun will come out for the second half of the week, and we’ll get a real boost in temperatures!  High pressure builds in at the surface…

…and aloft for Friday and Saturday:

That means mostly sunny conditions, highs at or ABOVE normal, and melting snow!  I do like the snow, but when it gets all dirty like it is now… I want it gone!  And it will be nice to have a few more parking spots around.    The GFS is still forecasting a good storm developing across the Central US, and a strong southerly flow may set up here by Sunday/Monday.  This would help push our temps into the low 50s… so it will feel MUCH more like Spring.  We’ll watch it and keep you posted on any changes.

Have a great day!
Jamie

February is just about over (just a few hours left!!) and while Dayton didn’t get the record for the snowiest February on record, we did get pretty close.  We had 23 inches, enough to put us in second place and also enough to get many in the mood for some sun and warmer temperatures. 

Below are the top five snowiest Februaries for Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton.

COLUMBUS:
1. 30.1″ … 2010 (through 02/27)
2. 29.2″ … 1910
3. 24.4″ … 2003
4. 19.6″ … 1914
5. 16.4″ … 1979

CINCINNATI:
1. 26.1″ … 2010 (through 02/27)
2. 21.4″ … 1914
3. 20.6″ … 1910
4. 19.9″ … 1993
5. 18.5″ … 1998

DAYTON:
1. 31.6″ … 1910
2. 23.0″ … 2010 (through 02/27)
3. 21.2″ … 2003
4. 17.5″ … 1979
5. 16.7″ … 1914

While this winter has seemed extremely long with all the snow, overall we do not even place in the top four or  top 10.  If the winter was to end today we would rank number #20.  However we still have March to go, and in your average March we generally pick up 4.8″ inches of snow.  So if March is anything like February we may see a record set yet.

Out of all the pictures sent in to WDTN, I think this picture symbolizes what many are thinking.  In Kettering this family looks ready to hit the pool, lake, or beach with a lawn chair, beach umbrella and beach ball all set to go.  In just another 2 months we will be in April where 60s and 70s are common.

When it comes to forecasts, things are looking a little brighter and warmer down the road.  The last image posted in this blog is an overlay of the GFS and the ECMWF (two separate long range computer models).  Both show a fairly strong area of High pressure to our southeast, meaning southwesterly winds for us and very good shot at some moderating temperatures by the end of the week.  We could even break 50 degrees come next Sunday.  The GFS does have something that is a little different however… it has a strong system in the central plains.  If that happens we could have a big warm up (50’s perhaps even 60’s) by early next week with heavy rain and a big shot of cold air behind it.  Let it begin!  The Ups and Downs of temperatures during spring in the Miami Valley… Hey, we cant get too much colder!

Below are the top five snowiest winter seasons for Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton.

COLUMBUS:
1. 67.8″ … 1909-1910
2. 54.1″ … 1977-1978, 1995-1996
4. 49.9″ … 2009-2010 (through 2/27)
5. 48.7″ … 2002-2003

CINCINNATI:
1. 53.9″ … 1977-1978
2. 47.3″ … 1976-1977
3. 46.3″ … 1950-1951
4. 44.6″ … 1995-1996
5. 38.4″ … 2009-2010 (through 2/27)

DAYTON:
1. 62.7″ … 1977-1978
2. 54.8″ … 1950-1951
3. 50.4″ … 1909-1910
4. 45.2″ … 1917-1918
5. 44.8″ … 1963-1964
…
20. 38.0″ … 2009-2010 (through 2/27)

We have winds gusting up to 30mph this morning, and that is causing some blowing and drifting of snow.  The problems are exaggerated in the open, rural areas… and on the North/South running roads.  Darke and Miami Counties are on Level 2 Snow Emergencies because of the drifting.  There is also a bad accident on 68 in Greene Co, and the highway is shut down as Careflight responds.  Be careful out there this morning!

During the afternoon, temperatures will climb up near 30 degrees again.  Even though we’ll technically be below freezing, as the sun rises up in the sky, we get enough “warming” to see some snow melt.  So the roads will likely not be as bad as we get later into the day. 

Additional snow showers will move in from the northeast today:

These snow showers are rotating around the back side of the BIG low to our East.  We are getting off easy here, as this storm is dumping over a foot of snow in some parts of the Northeast.  This is already impacting flights leaving Dayton and heading East.  Flights into LaGuardia and Newark have already been cancelled… so check in with your air carrier before you leave today, to make sure your flight is on time.  An easy way to do that is click right here:  DAYTON DELAYS

It looks like snow showers will hang around overnight and into Saturday.  We could see a couple of inches on the ground by Saturday morning.  But during the afternoon, any additional accumulation will be limited as temperatures climb up right around freezing… the snowfall will be fighting melting!  Sunday looks just a bit warmer, with highs in the mid-30s… and the winds will also relax as the storm pulls farther away.  A few flurries could linger, but we should generally see drier conditions as we head into the beginning of next week.

Have a great weekend!!
Jamie

Snow showers continued through the Miami Valley overnight, putting down some pretty good snowfall totals in the Eastern Miami Valley.  Amounts were a bit lighter as you traveled Northwest, away from Dayton.  If you are heading out and about this morning, here’s a look at what fell where:

The light accumulations have prompted some school delays, as well.  We could see a few more delays tomorrow morning, as these pesky snow showers will continue.   Again, we’re not expecting high amounts, but it seems to be just enough to cause some issues for commuters.  Slick conditions have been reported throughout the Miami Valley, especially on the secondary roads.  We also have pothole problems!  The right lane of I-75 Southbound near St. Rt. 4 is closed this morning… as is the exit ramp for Rt. 4.  This is so ODOT crews can fix a pothole in the area, and they expect the closure through noon.

The upper low will not move much over the next few days.  Here it is this evening:

And by Saturday, you can still see it in the same general area:

That means, snow showers will continue to rotate around the back side of the low through the weekend here in the Dayton area.  Again, most will be light, but we could get some heavier pockets in there, too.  These will be brief, but they will reduce visibility and put down a good coating rather quickly.  We may have a couple more inches of snow by the time we get to the weekend!

But it could be worse.  Parts of the Northeast are getting another HUGE dumping of snow with this storm.  Places that had it worst several weeks ago, are going to get another 1 to 2 FEET!!

Jamie

A cold front is heading our way, bringing the chance of light snow to the area through tonight.  We have a dusting across the region this morning, and we’ll continue to add to that heading into the afternoon.  Most locations will see a half-inch or so… but some spots could pick up closer to one inch today.  Behind the front we’ll see the winds increase tonight & Thursday, which could cause some light blowing and drifting of snow:

Colder air will also spill in behind the front.  Temperatures the next few mornings look to be in the teens, with afternoon highs in the upper 20s to right around 30 degrees.

After the cold front moves through, we’ll see a northwest flow set up across the area.  This means lake effect snow showers will be possible.  And it looks like they’ll be possible for awhile!!  We may see breaks in the clouds from time-to-time… but for the most part, light snow showers and below-normal temperatures are in the forecast through the upcoming weekend.

Here are some stats on the month of February so far:

AVERAGE TEMP:  24.2°
BELOW AVERAGE BY -5.3°
TOTAL PRECIP: 1.39″
BELOW AVERAGE BY -.45″
TOTAL SNOW: 20.4″

It has beena  cold and snowy month!  But it’s interesting that even though we are near record snowfall for the month, we are below on liquid equivilant!  We’ll continue to add to that–lightly–through early next week.  It looks like parts of the Miami Valley could pick up a quarter-inch here… a half-inch there… through Monday.

Jamie

After a foggy, drizzly day yesterday… colder air is working back into the Miami Valley.  We still have some light drizzle/freezing drizzle this morning, so watch for slick conditions.  Fog is not as thick today, but visibilities still may drop off as you’re traveling around early on.

We’ll continue to see the chance of freezing drizzle and even some light snow showers today… but accumulation will be little if anything.  A better shot of some accumulating snow will come on Wednesday, as an upper level low drops in:

We could see an inch or so of snowfall, especially across the north.  Some spots may get up to the 2″ mark, but not much more than that is expected.  The storm will also push a cold front through the area at the surface:

Behind this front, the winds will increase, and temperatures will be a bit colder for Thursday and Friday.  Kind of a blustery end to the week!  Over the weekend, things look to be a bit more quiet… although quite a bit of cloud cover will hang around for a while.  Don’t mean to be depressing, but a bright sunny day is just not in the forecast at this point…

Jamie

Its TRUE!!!  Today we hit a high of 42 and one of our weather checkers, Greg down in Centerville, reported a high of 50 degrees this afternoon!  While it’s nice to finally be talking about some milder weather, it doesn’t look as though its going to last much more then a day or so.

First, lets just be happy… our latest winter storm is spareing us, however places like the Quad Cities, Chicago, and Detroit will be belted with 3-6 inch snows, but for us… just rain!

The reason is the track.  For what seems like the first time this winter the storms track is to our north and west.  Low pressure systems have winds that circulate in a counter clockwise direction which means relatively mild air is being pulled in from the east and as the storm approaches that wind may even have more of a southerly component to it leading to even milder readings.

The image to the right is the 12Z NAM weather model and shows the air temperature aloft (in degrees Celsius).  I highlighted Ohio in green (It can be a little difficult to see to the untrained eye!).  I also highlighted the -3C line.   -3C is usually pretty close to the rain / snow line but notice how far off to the north and west it is.  That means, rain for us!!!

However while we get wet many other locations will be getting white.  Winter Storm warnings are in effect for areas north and west of both Chicago and Detroit which ultimately could delay flights departing from Dayton.

(By the way wdtn.com has a great new way to track your flight here is the link!)

http://www.wdtn.com/subindex/traffic/airport_status

The only down side is that the mild weather will not last.  As the storm moves to our north and east it will drag some colder air in behind it.  While accumulations will be very light, we will see some some flurries on Tuesday with a better chance of some light snow Wednesday.  Temperatures will also drop with highs only in the 20s by Thursday and perhaps Friday too.  Just keep in mind Spring is getting close, less then one month away!

And while Spring may be getting closer, some are still enjoying the snow!  This picture was taken at Boomershine Hill in Germantown.  Apparently Kurt, Billy, Connor, Tyler, Kelsey, Jon, and Ben all had a fantastic time getting the head and torso on making this snowman over 7 feet tall!

Freezing fog is in place over parts of the Miami Valley this morning.  Visibilities will occasionally drop down to a quarter of a mile.  And slick spots will be possible in areas of dense fog… so be on alert if you’re heading out early this morning.  One of our weathercheckers, Steve, sent me this picture of fog forming over a field in Bellbrook around 7:30am:

Any fog should burn off this afternoon, and it does look like we’ll see some sunshine today!  What a great way to end the week.  Temperatures will also be above freezing, so we do expect qutie a bit of melting today.  We’ll also see melting right through the weekend, as afternoon highs look to be in the mid… and even upper… 30s.

Still a complex set-up and a tough forecast, especially for Sunday into Monday.  Here’s what we’re thinking right now…

Saturday’s weak system is still expected to bring only light precip to the area.  Looks like some snow showers, and we could even see a little rain mix in to the south.  Any accumulation is expected to be light.

Then, our stronger storm for Sunday/Monday will bring in some heavier stuff.  As expected, the models are coming more in line with a “warmer” solution for this storm.  That would mean more of a mix for the area rather than all snow.  See below… the rain/snow transition zone is in purple.  Notice how it’s RIGHT over the Dayton area.  That is why this is such a difficult forecast:

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Parts of the extreme northern Miami Valley may see all snow, while we’ll likely see some liquid mix in for the rest of us.  The rain will definitly cut-down on snowfall totals.  If this ALL fell as snow, we might see several inches!  But it probably won’t… so total amounts will be determined.  If this morning’s GFS is correct, we may get an inch or so by the end of the day Monday.

Don’t let today’s forecast be the last one you see regarding this storm!  Things can change in a matter of 12 hours, as we saw last weekend.  So check back in with us on Channel 2 tonight and on Saturday for the latest!

Enjoy your weekend!
Jamie

High pressure will move just to our South over the next couple of days.  This will bring the return of dry weather to the Dayton area.  The exception is this morning:  we have reports of some fine mist in the air… especially in the eastern and southern Miami Valley.   The mist, and even the clouds, should clear out a bit as we head into the afternoon.

Some sunshine, combined with temperatures in the mid-30s both today and Friday will lead to more melting of snow and ice.  Those icicles are getting very BIG!!  Overnight, we’ll see re-freezing… so slick conditions will be possible in the mornings.

We still have the chance of wintry weather in the forecast for the weekend, as two storms affect the area.  The first will move in on Saturday, and will bring the chance of light snow.

The second storm is a little more complicated.  Depending on the track of this storm, we could see all snow… or snow mixed with some rain and/or freezing rain.  The GFS has the storm farther South, and that would mean we stay in the colder airmass, which would mean more snow:

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The purple line is the rain/snow line.  BUT I tend to think we’ll get at least some warmer air wrapped into the storm, as the ECMWF is forecasting.  Notice how much farther north the rain/snow line is here:

Click to enlarge

We’ll keep an eye on it!

The group Foreigner is going to be LIVE in our studio for the noon show today.  They will perform some songs, and chat with Marsha.  Then they will be in concert tonight at Hobart Arena!  Fun!

Have a good Thursday!
Jamie