We’ve already seen rain and even some sleet across the Miami Valley tonight. Here’s a photo of the sleet earlier near Greenville from Cody Miller. Don’t forget to send your photos to report!t via wdtn.com
We saw our high temperatures at 3am. Ever since then the cold front has brought colder air southward. Take a look at just how fast temperatures fell this afternoon.
There is a Winter Storm Warning in effect for most of the Miami Valley. A Winter Weather Advisory for the extreme northern half of the Miami Valley.
This winter storm is very large and is impacting several states. Take a look at how far south the winter warnings stretch.
This is a complex storm that has many variables to it. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow are going to occur in the Miami Valley. The rain/snow line is very thin and if temperatures vary by a few degrees that could mean some areas will see more sleet than snow or vice versa. We’re keeping a close eye on the rain/snow line. Tonight it will be right over the Miami Valley so the southern half will see some rain while the central and northern half will see sleet.
The line shifts farther southward throughout the day on Friday. However there’s still a chance we’ll see some mixing around lunch time in the Dayton area while areas north see all snow. By the afternoon and evening cold air spills into the entire area and that means everyone will see snow.
One area of concern I have is the amount of icing. Wilmington and other areas in Clinton and Warren counties may see some minor ice accumulations. The central half – Eaton, Dayton, Springfield will see several hours of sleet.
Overnight sleet and freezing rain will overspread the region. By early Friday morning sleet and freezing rain is likely to create icy roads.
By lunch time areas north like Celina, Bellefontaine and Greenville will likely see all snow. Eaton, Dayton and Springfield may still see areas of sleet.
Shortly after lunch time everyone will transition over to all snow. The snow will be heavy at times.
I know many people are wondering how much snow we will see. To say this is a complicated forecast is an understatement. I’ve been pouring over model data coming up with the forecast trying to account for every variable. The difficult part will be the rain/snow line. If we end up seeing more sleet and freezing rain we’ll see less snowfall. If we end up seeing less freezing rain and sleet we’ll see more snowfall.
Here’s my snowfall forecast:
Within the 6-8inch band there may be pockets with more than 8 inches. All depends if we don’t see as much sleet.
OvernightSleet/freezing rain – wet & icy roads
Sleet/freezing rain/snow (north) – wet & icy roads
Snow begins northwest of Dayton/sleet near Dayton – wet & icy roads
Moderate to heavy snow at times – snow covered and slippery roads
Snow is gone however it’s going to be cold! Temperatures fall into the teens which means we may see some more icy spots due to a refreeze.