Thanks to Steve for sending that in.  He was on his normal walk this morning, and the fog got pretty dense in downtown Bellbrook.  Then it cleared immedately when he got to the top of the hill.  That will be hte nature of the fog for the next couple of hours… dense in local spots, but not everywhere.  I am seeing the lowest visibilities in the southern Miami Valley.

We should see some peeks of sunshine this afternoon, and temperatures will be just a little warmer than yesterday, with highs near 51 or so.  Over the weekend, it looks like there will be a bit of a warm-up… although short-lived.  Saturday through Monday, temperatures should climb into the low-to-mid 50s.  Next week, things will really change.  Do you remember a few days ago when I said we are in the “colder part” of this weather pattern?  We are about to feel it.  A big storm will move into the Great Lakes by Tuesday… dropping our temperatures:

We may even see a few snowflakes mixing in by Thanksgiving!  Good, it will finally start to FEEL like the holiday season!    Get ready for a cold shopping day on Friday, especially if you’re heading out early!

If you missed our morning show today, you probably missed my announcement… or, I should say my daughter, Claire’s, announcement.  Here she is with her message:

We are very excited that our family is growing!  Now you can watch me grow on TV, too

Have a great weekend!  Go Flyers… go Bucks!
Jamie

The storm will push a cold front through tonight, so today and tonight are the best chance of rain for us.  It looks like slightly drier air will be in place Thursday morning, but the chance of showers will return during the afternoon, as we get a little daytime heating.  And we won’t see *much* daytime heating… with highs just a bit cooler than we have been… right near 50 degrees.  That is still above normal!  Average highs are in the upper 40s this time of year.

I do think we are in the “cooler” part of the weather pattern… and over the next few weeks, we’ll start to feel more of a chill.  And perhaps see a few more snowflakes?  I do not think this is going to be an extremely snowy winter for us… but we may end up above-normal in precip.  These are my initial thoughts on the weather pattern that has set up for us!

On to Winter Safety Awareness… today, we’re talking extreme cold!  Exposure to cold can cause frostbite and hypothermia, and can even become life-threatening.  We are mainly concerned with temperatures below zero, but it might not even have to be THAT cold for those who are most susceptible (infants and the elderly).

WIND CHILL:  This is not the exact air temperature, but rather how the combination of temperature and wind FEEL on skin.  Sometimes we call this the “Feels Like” temperature.  As wind increases, heat escapes from the body at a faster and faster rate, driving down your core body temp. 

FROSTBITE:  This is damage to body tissue caused by extreme cold.  A wind chill of -20°F can cause frostbite in just 30-minutes!  Frostbite causes a loss of feeling and a white or pale look to extremities… such as fingers, toes, ears, or noses.  If symptoms are detected, it is important to get medical help immediately!  If you’re not able to get help right away, slowly warm the affected areas if you can. 

HYPOTHERMIA: This is a condition where the core body temperature drops to low levels.  Hypothermia can kill, and for those that survive, there are likely to be continuing liver, kidney, and pancreas problems.  Warning signs include uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness and apparent exhaustion.  Take the person’s temperature, and if it’s below 95°F, get medical care ASAP!

If medical help is not possible, warm the person slowly, starting with the body core.  Warming arms/legs first can draw cold blood toward the heart leading to heart failure.  Get the person into dry clothing and wrap them in a blanket, covering the head and the neck.  Warm broth is the first food to offer.

Jamie

And take a look at where it will be about 30 hours later… hey, STILL over Missouri:

It won’t be until Thursday that the storm moves just north of us.  That means we stay with clouds, cool temps and the increasing chance of rain.  Right now, it looks like the best shot of rain for everyone will be Wednesday!

Now on to more Winter Safety Awareness week info.  Today we’re talking ice!  Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees, utility poles and communication towers.  Utility companies usually work a lot of overtime after a big ice storm, as power and communication equipment can be out.  Much of the time, the damage is so extensive, they have to call in for help from surrounding communities.

Even small accumulations of ice are dangerous to motorists.  It is a must to drive with caution… but even if you’re going slow, your vehicle can easily slide out of control on the ice.  Take it from me, I was driving through our parking lot here at the station last year during an ice storm.  The lot sloped off to the right, and my car suddenly stopped going straight… and started sliding completely to the side, as the ice (and gravity) took over.  Unbelieveable, as I crashed into the building!

Here are the differences between the various types of winter precipitation:

FREEZING RAIN:  Frozen precipitation falls into a warmer airmass near the surface… and melts.  But temperatures AT the surface are below freezing, so the melted precip freezes on contact with objects.  A sheet of ice!

SLEET:  Frozen precipitaiton falls into a warmer airmass above the surface and melts.  Then it moves into a sub-freezing layer before it reaches the surface… and re-freezes into sleet.

SNOW:  Snow falls into cold air, and never  melts.

How much snow will we see this year?  Looking at the current weather pattern, I have a feeling it will be a below-normal year in terms of snowfall… but I think it will be a wet year, nonetheless.  Still, a couple of good snows… and the potential for ice are there, so we should still prepare for the worst!

Jamie

Today, we have a *slight* chance of a spotty light shower.  The northern counties are more likely to see rain today.  Everyone sees rain chances increase for Tuesday and Wednesday, as a slow-moving storm gets closer.

Although wintry weather is not in the forecast this week, this is Winter Safety Awareness Week!  This week, I will be posting info on this event right here on the weather blog.  Why is this important?  Every year, dozens of people die due to exposure to cold.  Plus, we deal with vehicle fatalities because of wintry weather conditions… and, unfortunately, something we’ve already seen right here in the Miami Valley this year… house fires, as people try to heat their homes.

Remember back to the big wind storm a year ago?  We went for days–weeks–without power.  Luckily, the weather was fairly comfortable, so we didn’t freeze.  But imagine that happening in the winter!  Brrrrrr….

Today, we’ll discuss heavy snow and winter storms.  Awhile back, Carl Nichols posted a blog about the Blizzard of ‘78.  He talked about how the storm virtually paralyzed the local community for days.  Even if you are able to get out during or shortly after a snowstorm, there is no guarantee the stores will be open.  Big storms can even affect emergency and medical services.

Let’s go over some winter weather information new to the area this year.  The National Weather Service has changed it’s criteria for issuing Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories.  Here is the new criteria:

Click to enlarge

Here are some other terms you may hear in the forecast throughout the winter months:

BLIZZARD:  Winds of 35 mph or more with snow or blowing snow reducing visibilities to less than 1/4 a mile for at least three hours.

BLOWING SNOW:  Wind-driven snow that reduces visibility.  Blowing snow may be falling and/or snow on the ground, being picked up by the wind.

SNOW SQUALLS: Brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds.  Accumulation may be significant.

SNOW SHOWERS:  Snow falling at varying intensities for brief periods of time.  Some accumulation is possible.

SNOW FLURRIES:  Light snow falling for short durations with little or no accumulation.

Regarding injuries due to ice and snow… about 70% of them result from vehicle accidents, and about 25% occur in people caught out in a storm.  Most happen to males over 40-years-old.

And the governor is reminding us that not only is there the threat of severe winter weather… but we also need to be aware of the H1N1 threat.  If we do have a huge snow storm, and someone in your house happens to get the flu, you’ll want to have all the necessary supplies on-hand.  This will help you avoid having to brave the storm for any needed supplies!

Jamie

OCTOBER:  Temps were -2.6° below normal… Precip was +2.08″ above normal.

NOVEMBER:  Temps are +2.0° above normal… Precip is -1.30″ below normal.

We will remain dry and warmer than normal right through the weekend, but a chance of rain and cooler temperatures will move in for next week.  Right now, the rain chances aren’t extremely high… but at least they are showing up.  And temperatures aren’t necessarily going to drop below normal, but they will be cooler than they have been!

Now on to my KLA experiences.  I am currently in the Kettering Leadership Academy’s 2009-2010 class.  We have been learning about all aspects of our community, and yesterday’s session covered the schools.  I grew up in the Kettering school district, and I have always known what a great program it is.  BUT there is so much I was never aware of that the schools do!  Not to mention, there is SO much more they have added since I graduated! 

First, a little background.  Kettering City Schools service about 8,000 kids.  It is made up of…

9 Elementary Schools
2 Middle Schools
1 High School

With three additional buildings… DL Barnes, a maintenance facility and the transportation garage.  Also included, Roush Stadium and all other sports fields.  There is more than 1.1 million square feet of buildings and 250 acres of property. 

The schools run on a budget of about $80 million each year.  Eighty percent of that budget comes from the Kettering community, with 20% coming from State and Federal funds.  Just think of all the things they need to budget for:

Facilities/Utilities
Teachers
Councilors
Principals
Curriculum-books
Supplies
Computers-other technology
Special Education Programs
Food
     *400 Breakfasts/day
     *3,500 Lunches/day
     *52 Cafeteria employees
     *2 Clerical Employees
Transportation/Fuel
     *60 Buses
     *266 Routes
     *Travel 570,000 miles/year
     *55 regular drivers
     *3 Mechanics
     *2 Clerical
Legal
Extra Curricular
Administration
Maintenance
     *55 Custodial
     *5 Groundskeepers
     *3 Maintenance
     *2 Plumbers
     *3 Electricians
     *2 Clerical
Communications/PR
Human Resources
Growth/Expansion

I am probably leaving something out, but you get the idea:  it’s expensive to run a school district!  And the school district is probably one of the most important parts of a community.  It lays the foundation, as good schools will attract good people.  Thankfully, Kettering has a great school system, and people come here specifically for certain programs it offers.

The special education department is amazing.  There are so many different levels of teaching, and children move seamlessly through their day from that one-on-one help they need to a regular classroom, perhaps with an aid’s continued assistance.  The high school offers about 20 sports to students, and more than 30 clubs/activities.  If a student can find 10 other students interested in a certain topic (and find a teacher to be an advisor), they can start their own official club!  Pretty cool.  We were amazed to see there is actually a Star Wars Club at Fairmont!

Students have the option of choosing from two advanced studies programs at Fairmont.  They have Advanced Placement (AP) classes and are one of the only schools around that offer International Baccalaureate (IB) classes!  These types of classes really challenge students with college-level content, and prepare them for college classes.  People come to Kettering specifically for the unique types of classes offered, and the IB program. 

The music program is one of the largest in the area.  They often win competitions and have many awards.  The group, 11thHour has performed with LeeAnn Rimes, the Beach Boys, Kenny Loggins.  They also have a new CD out… you can find out about ordering one here:  11th HOUR CDs

Fairmont has a career tech building to help not only prepare students for college, but to give them hands-on experience in a given field.  We visited the TV/Radio program, which has come a LONG way from when I was a student!  They told us most of the day, the room is booked and they’re either producing shows for air, or doing a live show.  I was impressed at the equipment they had… non-linear editing on Avid… wow, those kids will have a huge advantage!  We also visited a room where all the students were wearing scrubs and had stethoscopes around their necks!  They were in training for careers in the medical field.  They learn how to care for patients, with help from local hospitals.  The construction/trades program is also awesome, as students just built an entire house!  It’s currently up for sale… you can find more about it here:  DELTA HOUSE

Finally, we stopped in on the auto-mechanics program, also very competitive!  They use donated cars to learn all about the field, and also do work on citizen’s cars… if the repair fits what they’re learning about in the curriculum.  They even do computer diagnostic testing, cool!

What a fun day we had!  I do have to say, my favorite part was having lunch with the 3rd graders of John F. Kennedy Elementary School.  That is where I went to school as a kid!  It was so neat to be in the cafeteria again, drinking a small carton of chocolate milk. 

I left most of my notes at home, so a lot of this is just what I am remembering off the top of my head.  If there is anything you would like to add, please leave a comment below!   In January, we are learning about Community Organizations/History… so I’ll have another KLA update then!

Jamie

Then, cooler air will move in behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday.  The past two mornings, we’ve left for work with temperatures in the lower 50s.  Imagine how it’s going to feel tomorrow morning when you step out to upper 30s!  It’s still just above normal, but everything is relative… and that will feel cold after the mild conditions we have been used to!  Afternoon highs will also be just above normal both days, with readings in the mid-to-upper 50s.

Winds will increase behind the front, so late today you may notice it become a little breezy.  It will still be breezy on Wednesday, but at least we’ll be back to some sunshine!

Another warm-up is in the works for Friday and Saturday as high pressure moves to our east, and an upper level ridge builds in briefly.  We should be back into the 60s!

Hope your week is going great!
Jamie

Right now the official hurricane track from the National Hurricane Center keeps the system well to our south.  While long range predictions can be hard to make, I also posted the most recent run of the NAM weather model.  That model shows the system moving farther north bringing heavy rain to the southern and central Appalachian Mountains.  While I think the chances of us here seeing rain the remnants of Ida are pretty small… it is a possibility we will have to watch out for as we head towards midweek.

A cold front moved through overnight, and the cool air behind it will keep us just below normal this afternoon.  We’ll see lots of sunshine, but it will be breezy… with highs in the lower 50s.

It will be a COLD start Friday morning!  High pressure will be centered right over us, providing clear skies and light winds.  That is the perfect set-up for a good radiational cooling night!  We’ve talked about this before, but here is what happens on a night like tonight:

The heat of the day is able to escape back into the atmosphere very effectively without a cloud deck in place.  And cold air is dense air, so it sinks to the lowest places.  That’s why we’ll typically find the coldest readings in the lower-lying areas… valleys, etc.  After a cold start in the upper 20s on Friday, it will be a pretty seasonable afternoon.  High pressure will move off to our east, allowing winds to shift in from the southwest. 

That will put our afternoon highs right around normal, in the mid-50s.  Then the ridge builds in as we head into the weekend:

 Temperatures under this ridge will be in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday!  What great timing!  Perfect conditions to get out and finish those leaves!  OR to go do something FUN rather than yardwork… lol 

Oh, before I forget, here is that picture I promised of Halloween fun!  We had a Beggars day here at the staiton, where all employees got to bring in their kids to Trick-or-Treat!  My little Tinkerbell had a great time!

Jamie

It looks like the sunshine will hang around all afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler today, with highs only in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.  That’s almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, but at least it will be a bright 50 and not a cloudy 50! 

The clouds move in tonight ahead of a cold front.  Again, there is not a lot of moisture for this weak front to work with, so we’re talking a slight chance of spotty showers on Wednesday.  The best chance will be in the afternoon and evening.  But with more clouds around, temps will be even cooler… highs in the upper 40s.

Behind the front, you guessed it, another shot of cool air.  Thursday:  mid 40s.  Friday:  near 50.

Then we get into the good stuff.  We’re still forecasting a big warm-up for the weekend… highs in the 60s!!

Jamie

We have a weak cold front heading our way.  Ahead of it, we’ll be right around normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 50s.  BUT we’ll be fighting increasing cloud cover and the chance to see a few light rain showers.  The best chance of rain will be along/north of I-70… but we can’t rule out a few spotty sprinkles in our southern counties.  Overall, everything will be light, as this front is lacking any real moisture.

Slightly cooler air will then work in for Tuesday… highs will be in the upper 40s.  And there’s no chance to warm up Wednesday, as another fast-moving system brings more clouds and even some showers to the area.

But then we head towards next weekend… and I’m liking what I’m seeing!

A big ridge building over the Eastern US.  That means sunshine and warmer temps!  Let’s see if it can hold.  Great holiday decorating weather… if you’re into that kind of thing this early! 

Jamie