The satellite image shows how skies have been clearing from north to south this morning:

Where clouds have cleared (in the north), we have fog!  In Lima, visibility has been down under a quarter of a mile, and there Wapakoneta schools are running on a two hour delay because of the fog.  In the southern viewing area, things have not been that bad.  We’re still up around 9 miles visibility at the airport, WPAFB and down by the Dayton Mall.

As the day goes on, eventually everyone will see sunshine!  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon… it will be a nicer day for sure!  And temperatures will respond under the sun, as we warm into the mid-50s!

Here’s a look at how the rest of the week will play out.  Each day with more sunshine, and warmer temps:

Don’t forget to wear green tomorrow!  One of the hazards of this job is not being able to wear green because of the weather wall.  If we wear a true green, we will disappear because the wall is green, too!  I don’t like getting pinched, so I’ve decided to take the day off.  Ha!  No, I’m actually switching days with Erik so he can visist with his family this weekend… so he will be here for St. Patrick’s Day.  Hopefully he can find a shade of green that works!  Anyway, here’s the forecast… looks like we’ll be lucky!

Enjoy the warm-up!
Jamie

Its always a stuggle to see when a system like this will finally pull out and how long the low level clouds will stick around.  By looking at this map it seems as though there is enough cold air aloft and even a few slight precipitation returns (not only in the NAM but the GFS as well) that low statoform clouds should stick around for much of the day.  Also, if any sunshine does pop out early… and surface heating will just cause more cloud cover to form.  Either way, Monday will not be the nicest.  Tuesday looks like a different story as the sun returns, however with light winds out of the north temperatures will be slow to rebound back into the 60s.  – Erik Zarnitz

Here are some additional rainfall totals from Friday night through Sunday night.  Thanks weather checkers!  If you have any additions totals you’d like to add please list them below.

Beavercreek 2.02

Cedarville 1.69

Centerville 2.15

Fairborn 1.45

Greenville 1.73

Kettering 2.3

New Carlisle 1.9

Piqua 1.85

Sidney 1.7

Tipp City 1.8

Sidney 1.7

Tipp City 1.8

Union 1.6

Xenia 1.8

Yellow Springs 2.03

Matt sent us this shot from his place in Beavercreek… says the fog is pretty bad all along the Montgomery/Greene Co. line in that area:

The fog should burn off as the sun continues to rise… warming temps.  But I think we’ll be mostly cloudy for much of the day.  As we head into late afternoon and early evening, we have the chance for showers and thunderstorms.  It looks like anytime after 4pm it could be wet… and the rain will continue overnight.  The Severe Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed us in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather this afternoon and evening:

Our biggest severe threat will be hail… and the potential for an isolated tornado.  We will, of course, keep you posted on any watches or warnings on Channel 2, and on www.wdtn.com.  Strong thunderstorms will be entirely dependent on how much destabilization we see during the afternoon.  The best chance will be between 4 and 8pm!

We will remain rainy tonight and Saturday as the main storm approaches from the southwest.  Showers and thunderstorms could produce some heavier rain in spots, so the potential is still there for some localized flooding problems.  A few showers linger on Sunday, but a drying trend works in for next week!

On to the KLA update!  As many of you know, I am enrolled in the 2009/2010 class of the Kettering Leadership Academy.  This is a program that you are selected to be in by city representatives… and you learn all about the city and the different people and programs that make it work.  This month, we focused on Public Safety!  We started out at the Kettering Police Department, where we got a tour of the station… including the new dispatch room (impressive!) and the shooting range.  One of the officers showed off the different guns, and did a shooting demo for us, so we could see the difference in accuracy and firepower.  Being pregnant, they had me enclosed in a booth, just to be safe (with the threat being lead exposure).  They did offer a chance to shoot a gun to some of my classmates… but they declined. 

Next, we headed outside to meet the K9 units!  We met a black lab named Bandit, and a German Shepard named Brix.  It was amazing as they both came upon a staged car and found the drugs the officers hid inside.  It was really like a game to them… they got a prize after they found the bad stuff, and their tails were wagging the whole time.  They were also pretty excited to find some objects the officers hid in the grassy/tree area nearby.  A screwdriver, and a police badge.  I couldn’t believe how fast they found the items!  They basically search an area for “things that don’t belong”… which could be disposed-of-evidence in a case.  Bandit will sit on an item and bark until recognized/rewarded, but Brix puts the item in his mouth and puts up a fight to give it up… quite entertaining!  We also watched Brix apprehend a “suspect”… man that dog is strong!  You can read more about the K9 unit here:  KETTERING POLICE DEPARTMENT K9 UNIT.

Police Chief Jim O’Dell then spoke with us about the challenges of police officers and the Chief of Police position.  One of the things that stuck with me was the fact that these officers often have to make life-or-death decisions in a matter of seconds.  How clearly would you be thinking in a moment of huge adrenaline rush?  Talk about stress on the job! 

After leaving the Police Department, we headed over to Fire Station #33.  Kettering has seven fire stations… numbered 31 through 37.  The reason for the high numbers is because they are actually a part of a COUNTY numbering system, to make it easier when multiple cities respond to any given fire.  Anyway, the guys there cooked us some lunch and we briefly spoke with Chief Bob Miles about the department and its operations.  Kettering has about 100 volunteer firefighters… and it always amazes me how these people donate a good chunk of their time… and put their lives on the line… all as volunteers!!

The crew had gear waiting for us out back, so we headed out to play dress up!  I could not believe how HEAVY the clothing is!  The jacket and pants alone are like 20 pounds, and the boots add an extra 10.  It wasn’t bad at first, but once I had been wearing it for awhile, I did have to sit down!  We first got to try entering a “burning” building to put out a fire.  The hose was set to only half-pressure for us… but that was still unbelievably heavy/hard to maneuver!  Being cautious with the pregnancy, I had some help on this drill.  Thanks to Shift Commander, Nick Hosford for assisting! 

We entered the structure, and got to actually spray the hose… and using two people learned how to lift/drop the hose to hit different areas.

Next, was the “Smoke House”.  I did not participate in this drill, because of the pregnancy… but I got to see my classmates put on the air packs… which weighed an additional 30 pounds, by the way!  The airpacks contain compressed air, and in a fire situation might last 9 to 20 minutes.  They are completely sealed around your face, to let no contaminated air in… and are (as one of my classmates found) not good if you are claustrophobic!!  They also demonstrated their thermal imaging cameras, which I did get to see.  In a dark room full of heavy smoke, you can CLEARLY make out bodies.  The firefighters told us besides the air packs, this is one of the greatest inventions in fire rescue.

Last, we got to tear apart a car!  This was to demonstrate rescue for a car accident.  Once again, there were heavy, heavy tools we used to remove the doors from the car… VERY powerful tools!  And some more manual items that allowed us to cut/smash out the windows.  We also discussed the paramedic-side to being a firefighter, as most of the calls are for EMTs. 

Overall, we gained new admiration for our firefighters, and really those around the country.  We were only doing minimal training… THEY do much more than that weekly, and in actual emergencies… they put their lives on the line to save others.  It is truly amazing, and definitely not for everyone!  Kudos to the people in our community that help keep us safe!!

We will be running a story on the Kettering Leadership Academy tonight during the 5-6:30 newscasts… so I hope you can catch it!

Have a great weekend,
Jamie

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Notice our morning temperature… 49 degrees!  Wow, that’s a couple degrees ABOVE our normal HIGH for the day!  Once that warm front lifts a little farther north, we will be well into the “warm sector” of the storm system.  This should ensure a relatively quiet afternoon.  We still can’t rule out a spotty shower, but mostly dry weather will be in place from noon or 1pm on.  We will continue to see some clouds around, but despite this, we should still push into the 60s for highs today.

As we head into Thursday and Friday, we start to see a little more lift as each piece of energy moves through and the main storm gets closer.  Here is what both models are forecasting for Thursday evening.  First the NAM:

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And now the GFS:

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We are looking at the 700mb level, about 10,000 feet up in the atmosphere.  The green color represents moisture… relative humidity.  The red lines and numbers you see denote rising motion (the lower the number, the greater the lift).  If this pans out, it could mean some heavier downpours for us… perhaps even a few thunderstorms.  The threat of severe weather is low… as we are lacking in instability, but some locations could pick up a half-inch or more if you get a thunderstorm.  The ground is already saturated from snow-melt, so there could be some ponding and/or minor flooding issues. 

We continue to stay active as we head into the weekend.  See yesterday’s blog on this slow-moving storm… not much has changed!!

Jamie

It has been nice the past several days, to enjoy lots of sunshine with the warmer readings.  Here is a beautiful shot Mike Zander captured while enjoying a day off in Troy yesterday.  Check out that bright blue sky!

The combination of warmer temperatures and sunshine have caused rapid melting of snow across the area, too.  Jonathan Marker of Eaton sends us this photo of some minor flooding in his yard, where the piles of snow have quickly diminished:

Although the warmer temperatures will continue, we are going to see some changes.  Today, you’ll notice increasing clouds as we head into the afternoon hours.  And by this evening, a chance of scattered showers works in.  This is due to an area of low pressure across the Plains, which will help push a warm front across the Miami Valley:

This storm is going to be a slow-mover.  Notice over the next several days, it creeps its way toward the Miami Valley.  Here is Wednesday, expect some spotty showers:

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Thursday, even more rain… could even hear a few rumbles of thunder:

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Friday, cloudy and rainy:

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Saturday, still some showers around:

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Once the storm passes over us and off to the East, some colder air will work in for Sunday and the beginning of next week.  highs will go from the 50s and 60s down into the 40s.  ‘Tis the season for ups and downs!

Don’t forget… THIS SATURDAY is Dayton Skywarn’s Storm Spotter Training class!  If you’ve always had a fascination with weather (and I’m guessing you have, if you’re reading this blog)… now is your chance to learn about severe storms!  How they form… what to look for… and how to report severe weather to keep others safe!  Here are the details:

WHAT:  Dayton Skywarn Severe Storm Spotter Training
WHEN:  This Saturday, March 13th from 9am until Noon
WHERE: Miami Valley Hospital, Berry Building Auditorium
THIS IS OPEN TO THE PUBLIC… AND **FREE**!!

Erik and I will be there, too… hope to see you!
Jamie

Now for the some information on todays weather.  The system that rolled in on Sunday evening was fairly weak, however it did put down some decent rains.  As of 9:30 pm the heaviest rain fell just east of Eaton.  Places like Lewisburg and New Lebanon coming in with over a half inch of rain.  The good news…. yes, this was RAIN for a change and not snow!!  That will also be the trend as we head through the week. 

The same system that brings us the clouds, rain, and mild weather by midweek also brings colder air as it moves away.   On Thursday the system will gradually move east and regenerate along the eastern seaboard.  At that point the coastal low will begin pulling down colder air from the north… So get ready, we could see a few more snowflakes in the forecast by late next weekend!

And so then on a clear night, we cool off a lot more efficiently:

We will have good Radiational Cooling again tonight into Saturday morning.  Something else to note, cold air is dense air, so it will sink to the lowest spots.  That is why some locations will be perhaps 5 degrees colder than other locations.  One of the most notorious low-lying cold spots in the Miami Valley is actually Miami County!  Piqua, Troy and Tipp City often have colder readings than other locations in the early morning hours.

BUT the sunshine will warm us rather quickly as we head into the afternoon!  We’ll make more than a 15-degree jump by lunchtime… with temperatures in the mid-30s at noon.  Our high should be right around 40 degrees.

We’ll finally come back up to normal readings over the weekend, with highs in the mid-40s both Saturday and Sunday.  I think Sunday has the potential to be even warmer, but that weak upper level disturbance is still progged to bring some clouds and perhaps a spotty shower to the area by late in the day.  The slow-moving storm that will move in from the West looks to be moving a little *slower*… so the chance of rain for early next week has been pushed back a few days.  Now it looks to be more towards the middle part of the week.  We’ll keep you posted!

Enjoy your weekend!!
Jamie

The song of the day, and what a happy little song at that!  Today’s weather should also make you feel happy.  Well, unless you want another 2 feet of snow!  In that case, this will have to do:

LOL!  Thanks to one of our viewers for sharing that photo.

High pressure is just off to our West, and that will keep things bright and sunny around here as we head through the next few days.  It will still be chilly, however, as we are going to be on the front side of that high both today and Friday.  Remember air around high pressure flows clockwise, so you can see where our winds will be coming from:

That northerly flow will likely keep us in the upper 30s.  But then Saturday hits, and the high will be right over us, eventually moving off to our east.  That will finally allow the warm-up to really take hold.  We’ll see mid-40s Saturday, with upper 40s possible on Sunday.  Again, we’ll be fighting some cloud cover Sunday afternoon as that weak disturbance moves through.  There could be a spotty shower, but most locations look to stay dry. 

The chance of showers will be in the forecast through the first half of next week as a slow-moving storm approaches from the west.  And, yes, it should be warm enough to keep most precip as rain.

Enjoy your Friday EVE!!
Jamie

The weekend will be very nice; particularly on Saturday.  Sunday, we will probably have to deal with more clouds around, which will likely keep high temps in check, as we stay in the upper 40s.  The reason… a weak upper-level feature (storm #1) will swing through:

There is not a lot of moisture, so the chance of showers will be low… but it’s something to keep an eye on.  A better chance for rain will come Monday and Tuesday as that stronger storm (#2) approaches us.

Hey, I want to remind you all that the National Weather Service is holding it’s annual Storm Spotter Training sessions all around the Miami Valley.  You can take an approximately 4 hour course and learn all about severe weather… what to look for, how to report it, and your reports will help others stay safe!  Here is the link to the schedule:  NWS STORM SPOTTER TRAINING.  Erik and I will actually be at the Montgomery County training class, at Miami Valley Hospital on March 13th.  We certainly hope to see some of you there!!

Jamie

Thanks to Francie in Springfield for sharing this cute photo.  Although, Pam and I agree we’d prefer a chocolate bunny right about now!

We’re staying a little chilly so far this week because of a storm system moving to our south.  Air around low pressure flows counter-clockwise… so we will continue to see a northerly wind here in the Dayton area, keeping temperatures below normal:

The storm will also keep us with some cloud cover through the middle part of the week.  However, if you live in the Northern Miami Valley… up toward Mercer, Auglaize, Darke, Logan and Shelby counties… you may see more sunshine today and Wednesday, as you may be JUST out of the reach of the cloud deck.  We could also see a passing flurry where the clouds are in place, both today and Wednesday.  But it looks like we’re missing out on any significant snowfall.  This storm is bringing wintry weather to parts of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas.  It is going to stay just far enough south to keep us out the messy weather.

Then, something wonderful happens.  Well, I guess it’s only wonderful if you’re looking forward to Spring!  The sun will come out for the second half of the week, and we’ll get a real boost in temperatures!  High pressure builds in at the surface…

…and aloft for Friday and Saturday:

That means mostly sunny conditions, highs at or ABOVE normal, and melting snow!  I do like the snow, but when it gets all dirty like it is now… I want it gone!  And it will be nice to have a few more parking spots around.    The GFS is still forecasting a good storm developing across the Central US, and a strong southerly flow may set up here by Sunday/Monday.  This would help push our temps into the low 50s… so it will feel MUCH more like Spring.  We’ll watch it and keep you posted on any changes.

Have a great day!
Jamie