Nothing went wrong last night, though… congrats to the Dayton Flyers!  Let’s do it again tonight!

And our weather forecast is improving over the weekend, so that is good news, too!  Today will be another chilly day, with highs in the lower 40s.  At least we will see quite a bit of sunshine early, with a few afternoon clouds.  Going into the weekend, temps will slowly warm.  Saturday’s high will be near 50 degrees… and we should be into the mid-50s on Sunday.  That will be nice!

There is still the slight chance of a spotty shower late Saturday and into Sunday.  I do think most of the weekend will be dry… but we have to keep at least a SMALL chance of rain in the forecast.  Good news, though… the best chance of rain will come Saturday evening/overnight… so it shouldn’t ruin any outdoor plans you have during the day.

Hey, if you are interested in becoming a storm spotter… here are a list of dates the National Weather Service will do training:

NWS STORM SPOTTER TRAINING SCHEDULE

If you missed the class for your area, you can always travel to another county to get the same training!

Enjoy your weekend… I hope it’s great!!
Jamie

We have what we call a “split flow” across the country.  This happens when the jet stream separates into two branches:  the Polar Jet to the north and the Subtropical Jet to the south:

There is a storm that will be moving in the southern branch… and some of that energy will pass to our south Friday and Saturday.  So if you have travel plans that take you in that direction… be aware that things will be a little unsettled from the Ohio River through the Gulf Coast States:

Some of that moisture may creep into our area on Sunday, as the storm lifts north a bit:

So we do have a chance of showers Sunday and Monday.  The good news… temperatures will be on the rise as we head into the weekend, coming back above normal by Saturday afternoon.  Next week also looks to be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s by Wednesday.

GOOOOO DAYTON FLYERS!!!!!!! 
Jamie

The rain becomes more widely scattered beyond this… and I think there will be a lot of dry weather here during the afternoon, as we get into the “warm sector” of the storm.  BUT we can’t completely rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm.  It will be breezy and mild:

Then the cold front approaches tonight.  This will increase the chance of rain again… with a line of thunderstorms likely as the front comes through late tonight:

We could see some gusty winds with the front… and the SPC has now placed us in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather:

The time of day (late night/early morning) that the front will move through is not the most favorable for severe weather.  So we will have that on our side… but I still expect some stronger winds.

This is our last “mild” day for awhile.  We’ll be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees (depending on how much sun we see)… but behind the cold front, temps drop for the 2nd half of the week!

The National Weather Service has completed it’s survey of storm damage from Sunday, and has determined that tornadoes hit a couple of Indiana counties.  The closest county to us is Ripley, IN which is about 30-40 minutes west of Cincinnati.  Here are the reports:

NWS WILMINGTON… RIPLEY COUNTY, IN TORNADO
NWS INDIANAPOLIS… LAWRENCE COUNTY, IN TORNADOES
NWS FORT WAYNE… WHITLEY COUNTY, IN AND DEFIANCE CO, OH TORNADOES

Jamie

Above is a map showing all of the warnings we had on Sunday, the red tornado and the orange severe thunderstorm warnings.  Notice how most of the warnings connect (I drew white line to help).  Most of the warnings and tornadoes we had, happened with the same supercell thunderstorms.  A few more scattered to our north…. one to two that popped from Missouri through Indiana, along with a couple to the south.

Above are the actual reports.  Notice how just about all of them are associated with the long lived thunderstorms.  (If you are interested in the actual storm reports from S.P.C. I have them posted at the bottom.)   Pretty amazing that we escaped this one…. there was a supercell producing tornadoes just about all day, and when it made it to Butler County.  Stopped.

With the system off to our east… we are seeing a slight flash back of winter… with wind advisories and colder temperatures on the way.

But this isn’t the end of the Spring like weather.  Tuesday we will be back in the 60s, but watch out!  Another more powerful system will give us the chance from more severe weather Tuesday night… and then winter will return!

Here are some more Tornado reports from the Storms Prediction Center to go along with the map above.

First lets take a look at Saturdays High temperatures

These are the official readings from the national weather service.  If these are a little to broad Here are some more readings from our weather bug network.

The problem is…. all of this is going to change.   We have some much colder air off to our north and west.  While it isn’t all going to come at us at once…. it will gradually seep in.  The first round of cooler weather will move through with our system on Sunday.  With the low pressure system almost directly on top of us… there will be plenty of rotation around in the atmosphere.

That is why there is a possibility for some severe weather.  Right now it looks like its going to be a pretty cloudy & rainy day limiting destabilization… but if we do see some sun and this system heads a little further north our chances for severe weather will go up.  When you see 75 degrees on March 7th, you have to be ready for anything!

GFS, Fri 7pm

As we’ve been talking about this week, that front will not quite make it THROUGH the Miami Valley, as it lifts back north as a warm front Saturday afternoon:

GFS, Sat 7pm

So while Saturday will start with some showers in the area, we’ll dry out and warm up during the afternoon.  Expect highs in the upper 60s to right around 70 degrees.

On Sunday, a storm will move along that front, and we’ll see some rain and even thunderstorms in the area.  Right now, it looks like the *heaviest* rain will be just north of Dayton, as the GFS is depicting:

GFS, weekend rain forecast

But if the front sets up a bit farther south, we could see some heavier rain here.  We’ll keep you posted on our thoughts over the weekend.  I hope you enjoy it!  Just think, last weekend our highs were only near 30 degrees!  We’ll be 40-degrees warmer on Saturday!! 

Jamie

But it looks like a little sunshine will peek through during the afternoon.  Expect a breezy day, but the southerly winds will bring in the warmer air.  Our highs will be into the mid-50s this afternoon.  Tonight, a slight chance of showers… the same for Friday afternoon.  But Friday, we’re still thinking lower- 60s… not bad. 

SATURDAY… the big day!  We are now thinking upper 60s are possible, as we are in the warm sector of the storm, with dry weather in the afternoon.  I think a few showers could be around early on… but some sunshine is possible later in the day!

Jamie

Monday: 9 degrees
Tuesday: 6 degrees

I am happy to say that we are in the lower 20s this morning!  And at the time we are supposed to be our coldest, temperatures are actually rising!  We will continue to climb through the day… reaching the mid-30s around noon… and the lower 40s as we head into the second half of the day.  That will feel nice!

As we’ve been talking about all week… the warm up really gets here Thursday and Friday.  Thursday afternoon, we’re now thinking mid-50s are possible… and Friday we’ll be in the lower 60s!

Saturday could be even warmer for us, as it looks like we’ll be in the “warm sector” of the storm.  This basically means there will be a warm front NORTH of us and a cold front WEST of us… see the GFS model below:

This could change if the front drifts farther south, but right now Sat. looks to be the warmest day of the next seven.  There could be a spotty shower here or there, and it does look like we’ll see some cloud cover.  But I’m also thinking there could be a little sunshine.  And depending on how much sun we get… this could be a day where temperatures get out of control!  I’m being safe and forecasting lower-to-mid 60s… but we’ll see how it looks as we get closer…

Here’s a funny story… my daughter, who is 16 months, loves watching Channel 2 news.  It is a little rediculous, as she is so young!  But whenever the music comes on, she looks at the TV, and makes a “surprised” face… like she’s so excited the news has started!  (I’m sure it’s because we always have it on, and the music is just familiar to her).  BUT, even more odd… when she’s throwing a fit and crying… if I start saying stuff like, “We’ll take a look at Live Doppler 2 X coming up…” she will literally STOP crying and listen to me.  Hilarious! 

Anyway, have a good one, and enjoy the nice warmer weather!
Jamie

On Wednesday, afternoon temperatures will be a bit warmer, although still chilly.  We should be near 40 degrees.  As that slightly warmer air moves in, a little moisture will as well:

700mb Relative Humidity, Valid WED 7am.

That could mean a few spotty flurries early Wednesday.

We get even warmer Thursday, with highs in the 50s… but a frontal boundary is going to be in the area Thursday through the weekend.  In this type of set-up, frontal location is everything in terms of if we will see rain… and how warm it will get.  We will be watching the trends in the models, and will tweak the forecast as needed:

Right now, it looks like at least Friday we will be on the “warmer” side of the front… so that would mean lower 60s for us, with a slight chance of showers.  We’ll continue to keep you posted on the forecast on-air and online!

If you are ready for warm, Spring temperatures… you will be happy to know this:  While we start the month with average highs in the lower 40s… our average highs climb into the mid 50s by the end of March!

Jamie

As of Sunday night the system was just starting but as this system deepens the winds around it will strengthen… pulling down even more cold air…. for us.  Futurecast doesn’t show any snow across our area but with the winds and bitter cold air, it will feel wintry enough.

As the area of low pressure moves away Monday afternoon winds will gradually decrease.  Overall wind chills for much of the day will stay in the single digits!

If you have friends or family out on the coast… here is a snowfall forecast from just one of the models we use.  It looks like a pretty good shot of 6-12 anywhere from New York City and north.  The areas south will probably be contaminated with sleet… so unless your friends live in the mountains they’re totals wont be quite as high as what this model has put out.