It’s hard to believe the destruction in Oklahoma after a monster tornado struck the southern Oklahoma City suburbs… including the city of Moore.  Here is a look at the tornado’s path and preliminary info:

If the storm ends up being an EF 4 on the scale, the maximum winds would be up to 200 mph… but to tell you the truth, this one could have been even stronger.  Less than .1% of  all tornadoes end up being EF5 (max winds 235mph)… so that is quite rare.  But outbreak itself is not unheard of… as areas become more and more populated it goes without saying–more people are at risk.  And afterall, it is tornado season in Oklahoma… which is smack dab in the middle of “tornado alley”.  One interesting graphic I came across is the tornado climatology for May 20th:

Scary accurate where that bullseye is.  The National Weather Service has teams out in that community today to survey the damage, and will have more information as the day goes on.  And is there ever damage.  It is heartbreaking to see the images today… Oklahoma Tornado Gallery.

I’ve heard reports of this tornado being anywhere from a half of a mile… up to two miles wide at one point.  (again, NWS will confirm this today).  At one point the NWS in Norman Tweeted this powerful warning:

@NWSNorman 322pm – the tornado is so large you may not realize it’s a tornado. If you are in Moore, go to shelter NOW!

The tornado’s track is eerily close to the one that hit on May 3rd, 1999… although it went a bit farther south.  Here is the track-comparison:

Our residents in Xenia may be able to relate.  The stories of loss… and of survival will continue to pour in over the next few days.  You can stay up-to-date at www.wdtn.com

The good news is that there was warning.  The NWS issued a tornado warning for the area 16 minutes before the tornado developed, and the community of Moore had about a half-hour lead time before it reached them.  The loss of life may be attributed to a number of things… the lack of immediate action (take EVERY warning seriously, and when you hear a warning… act NOW), or even just the shear strength of the storm.  We will learn more in the coming days.  But what is very interesting… is the list of the top 25-deadliest tornadoes on record:  DEADLIEST TORNADOES  Only one of them–Joplin–is in the NWS Doppler radar era.  Amazing life-saving advances in weather technology!  The preliminary death count on Moore is 24… but is likely to rise.  Praying for the whole state of Oklahoma.

Onto our local weather… we do have a slight risk for severe storms today:

The threat will be greatest in the later afternoon and evening hours.  Any storm will have the potential to produce winds in excess of 60mph, and we could see some larger sized hail.  Thankfully, today our tornado threat is not as great… but down in parts of Oklahoma (southeast corner)… Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas… they could see more strong storms with large, long-tracked tornadoes.  We will continue to keep you posted on air and online.  Follow @WDTN on Twitter for breaking news updates, too.

A severe threat will linger on Wednesday, as a slow-moving cold front approaches.  Behind the front on Thursday, showers and even a thunderstorm will still be possible, but the severe threat will be over.  Much cooler air builds in for the second half of the week, with highs in the 60s both Thursday and Friday.

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We are starting off with the potential for some patchy fog this morning, and very mild temperatures in the upper 60s to right around 70.  The stalled front we talked much about last week, is now north of the area… putting us in the warm airmass:

Yesterday we reached 82-degrees, and it was a little humid.  This summer like weather will continue today, as we get even warmer.  We should reach the mid-upper 80s this afternoon, and dew points will be in the mid-upper 60s… which means more humidity.  The easiest way to measure how humid it feels outside is by looking at the dew point.  Whenever the dew point is above 60-degrees… you will notice it.  Today, the dew points will be in the mid-upper 60s, and this is where that falls on the Muggy Meter:

The rain chance today is fairly low.  If something pops, it would be during the late afternoon or evening hours.  The best chance for this is north and west of Dayton, and the SPC has highlighted this area for an elevated risk for severe storms:

Again, only a 10-20% chance of a thunderstorm… but if it does develop, it could be strong with damaging winds and hail.  We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings for the area on air and online at www.wdtn.com.  A better chance for severe weather in our area exists for Tuesday AND Wednesday.

Stay with us this week, as the active weather pattern fires up again!
Jamie
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A stalled boundary is still the focus for our cloud cover and scattered showers this weekend.  We’ll continue to see the clouds this evening.  There’s a slight chance for a few scattered showers.  As of 6pm there are a few showers and thunderstorms in the southern half of the Miami Valley.  Be sure to head to wdtn.com to get the latest scan of Live Doppler 2HD.

Despite the cloud cover this afternoon we did see our highs in the middle 70′s which is a few degrees above normal.

This evening we’ll see a slight chance for a few showers and storms to develop.   But they are going to be very isolated in nature.

None of the storms that develop will be severe – however out west it’s a different story.  There are tornado watches in effect as a large storm system produces severe weather there.

Back here in the Miami Valley we’ll see more clouds heading into Sunday.  A little bit of sun may spark a few showers and storms in the afternoon but again they will be isolated in nature.

One thing you’ll notice – and probably noticed today – is an increase in humidity.  Dew point values are in the lower 60′s so it feels slightly sticky.  However Sunday dew point values will rise into the middle and upper 60′s which means it’s going to feel a bit more uncomfortable.

Monday looks like it will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the middle to upper 80′s.  Temperatures stay in the lower 80′s for the first half of the work week but right now it looks like the Memorial Day weekend may be dry!

Have a great weekend!
Tara

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What a warm day yesterday– we officially reached 87-degrees for the high with sunshine throughout the day.  If you’ve done some planting, the next several days will make you happy, as we have the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Free watering!    This active weather pattern is all thanks to a front that is stalled across the region:

The front will oscillate between the Ohio River and our northern counties right through the weekend.  The combination of occasional disturbances moving along the boundary and daytime heating will fire up showers/thunderstorms at any time.  While it won’t rain all day, every day… it will likely rain at some POINT every day in our area.

Although wide-spread severe weather is not expected, any thunderstorm will have  the potential to produce small hail or even winds 30-to-40mph.  And the downpours.  Wow.  In just a couple hours this morning, Beavercreek picked up over an inch of rain!

So watch for localized flooding over the next several days.  This pattern does not look to break until at least mid-week next week.  So keep the umbrella handy!

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I have decided today is my “pick day of the week.”  It’s going to feel more like summer rather than spring.  We’ll see gusty winds at times near 30 mph which will allow our temperatures to soar into the middle 80′s.

While temperatures will be well above normal it doesn’t look like we’re going to break a record.

We’ll see lots of sunshine for the first half of the day.  By the afternoon clouds begin to build and there’s a chance for a few showers or thundershowers.  A cold front will sink southward and bring the chance for rain mainly after 6pm.

The cold front stalls right over the Miami Valley and this means our rain chances will continue for Thursday.

The rain chances continue into the weekend and much of next week.

There will be some dry times but most of the days will have scattered showers and storms.  Be prepared to keep the umbrella nearby

Tara
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High pressure is moving off to our east, and southerly winds have developed over the Miami Valley.  With the help of a little cloud cover, our temperatures have been much warmer this morning… sitting in the mid-upper 40s:

We will remain dry today, even though we’ll be dealing with clouds for the morning and early afternoon.  Expect more sunshine as we head past lunch time.  With the sun and strengthening southerly winds, our highs will reach the mid-70s today… running just above normal.

Winds increase even more so on Wednesday–southwest flow 15-25 mph–so quite breezy.  But with lots of sunshine, we will see highs push into the mid-80s!  Talk about a warm-up!

The next rain chance arrives as early as Wednesday evening, as a front drops in from the north:

Initially, the rain chance will be confined to the northern counties, but a better chance of showers and thunderstorms moves through all of the Miami Valley Wednesday night into Thursday.  And a good part of the day Thursday will be wet, as the front stalls over the region.  This front will drift a bit farther south and then head back north as we head into the weekend… the exact placement will, of course, determine who has the best chance for rain each day.  If you have outdoor plans, this is a forecast you’ll want to pay attention to… we will have a better idea of front location as we get closer.

Even if we do see rain here or there… we DO look to be warmer… and to stay warmer.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s through next week.  I’m officially planting! 

Jamie
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It was a MUCH cooler weekend, as expected, across the Miami Valley.  Sunday morning, temperatures dropped into the 30s with clear skies… and we did have some scattered frost to start the day.  THIS morning, we’ve actually had a bit of cloud cover which has helped to hold temperatures UP.  You can see colder readings in spots that had clear skies through the overnight:

But the clouds are breaking up through sunrise, and that will allow temps to drop into the upper 30s for most… mid 30s for some.  A Frost Advisory is in effect through 9am.  I was able to hold off on the planting (although I was VERY tempted to get things in the ground a few times)… and I brought in all the items the past two nights.  I do plan on actually planting my flowers this week, as we look to be in a warmer stretch… and we’re getting later into the season.  It’s mid-May for crying out loud!  

We do expect a significant warm up this week:

If you do your planting, you will have to water a bit, as the next chance of rain doesn’t show up until Thursday.  We will remain unsettled right through the weekend, with a frontal boundary draped across the region.  Exactly where this boundary ends up will determine HOW unsettled we will be.  Stay tuned.

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The clouds hung around a little longer than anticipated and that had an impact on today’s highs.  We only hit 55 degrees thanks to all of the cloud cover.  Our normal high for this time of year is near 70.  The below normal temperatures will continue for the next two days.  But we will see more sunshine for Sunday and Monday.

Tonight a weak cold front will pass through the area.  This will bring a very thin line of light showers.

The showers will move east after 10pm and skies will become partly cloudy overnight.  Temperatures will drop into the upper 30′s and lower 40′s again by early Sunday morning.

We’ll see some sunshine for Sunday afternoon but highs will still stay in the middle 50′s.

The chilly air mass stick around as high pressure gets closer to the Miami Valley Sunday night.  Temperatures will drop into the middle 30′s by early Monday morning.  This means if you have planted your garden you may need to cover up your plants or bring them indoors.

The good news is warmer temperatures will head this way for the new work week.  Look for lots of sunshine and temperatures into the upper 70′s and near 80 on Wednesday!

Happy Mother’s Day!

Tara
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We had some pretty decent thunderstorms come through overnight, and some spots picked up around a half-inch of rain.  At times, winds got up near 40-45mph as the storms came through.  Here’s a look at some of the rainfall totals:

Today, more showers and thunderstorms are likely as a cold front approaches from the west:

This will be most likely in the afternoon and evening.  A small portion of the Miami Valley is under an Elevated Risk for severe storms today, with the main threat being strong winds and hail:

It looks like storms will get going in our area, and then strengthen as they head east.  We will keep an eye on it later today, and let you know if we get any watches or warnings… on-air, online at wdtn.com and on social media @WDTN.

Behind this cold front, we will see MUCH cooler air build into the region.  Yesterday we reached 80-degrees… today we’ll be closer to normal, but will continue to drop over the weekend:

So it does look much cooler, although dry, to celebrate MOM on Sunday!  And there is still a very good chance of frost Monday morning, with clear skies and light winds overnight. This will help temperatures drop into the mid-30s early Monday.  Bring in your potted plants!

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Our weather has been very similar day-to-day this week… with cool, calm mornings and warm, unsettled afternoons.  That is once again what we will experience again today!  The slow-moving low pressure area that has kept thunderstorms in the Miami Valley has now moved off to our northeast, and high pressure is in control of our weather this morning:

That has allowed skies to clear and brought light winds.  This is aiding in the development of fog as we start the day, so watch for reduced visibilities through mid-morning.  Notice that area of low pressure on the left of the image… THAT is our next storm.  It moves our way today, and ahead of it temps will climb into the upper 70s with early sun and increasing clouds.  Beyond 2 or 3pm, the rain chances will start to increase across the area:

Much like the past couple days… afternoon and evening activity will be scattered, so you might get a heavy downpour… or you might get nothing at all.  That’s the nature of the beast!  We are also RIGHT on the edge of an Elevated Risk for severe weather:

Any severe storms that develop west of us will have the potential to reach especially our western counties.  They will tend to weaken, but it is something we will keep a close eye on today.  Check in with @WDTN_Brian on Channel 2 in our 90-minutes of news beginning at 5pm.  There is a slightly better chance of strong thunderstorms on Friday–especially in our eastern counties–as a cold front slowly moves through.  Behind this front we turn a LOT cooler for the weekend:  60s Saturday and only 50s on Sunday!

And we are still watching the potential for frost on Monday morning… clear skies, light winds and temps in the mid-30s.  Brrrr!  Wait until Tuesday to plant if you can!

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Once again, we are starting off cool and dry across the Miami Valley this morning.  This afternoon looks very similar to yesterday (maybe a touch warmer) as the upper low is moving farther away, but still influencing our weather.  We’ll see partly sunny skies, with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon as we heat up.

The nature of “scattered” activity, is that not everyone will see rain… but if you do you could see a heavier downpour or even a little bit of small hail.  Yesterday, there was a fairly potent thunderstorm that came right through Dayton… but in Kettering all we got was a brief light shower and we heard some thunder.

Any rain will taper off through the evening, and Thursday will start off dry.  The best chance at sun tomorrow is through the first part of the day… with again the clouds increasing and scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and evening.  BUT these will be moving in from the WEST–the result of a *new* disturbance moving into the area:

Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce stronger winds and hail, so for Thursday the severe weather threat is “Elevated”.  The best shot at stronger storms will be in our northwest counties… we will continue to keep you posted!

Jamie
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As expected, yesterday’s rainfall totals were highest in our southern coutnies–closer to the upper low we’ve been tracking for days.  Here are some of the numbers, called in by our Weathercheckers:

We are still STILL dealing with that pesky upper low, which is keeping our weather unsettled here in the Miami Valley.  This morning, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out, but the rain will not have quite the coverage it had yesterday.  The low is located over the Carolinas today:

Around the back side of this feature, we will continue to see clouds streaming in from the east… and the potential for more showers.  The best shot of rain will come with some heating during the afternoon hours.  We couldn’t rule out a rumble of thunder, but that chance will be a little higher on Wednesday.  Yes, the rain chances continue beyond today… here is a look at a very unsettled stretch:

Right now, it looks like Thursday will start dry… with the rain chance returning in the afternoon and evening hours as the NEXT disturbance moves in.  Scattered activity is possible Friday & Saturday, with a slow-moving front… and finally, a drying trend for Sunday–Mother’s Day.  We will also be cooling for Mother’s Day, as highs will struggle to make it above 60-degrees.  AND you know how we usually say, “Don’t do any planting until after Mother’s Day” ?  Well we say this for good reason… it looks like this year we actually do have the potential for FROST the day after Mother’s Day!  Plant with caution this weekend

Jamie
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Last week, we discussed an area of low pressure that would cut-off from the main flow and slowly move south of the area.  Well, we are STILL dealing with this storm system… so expect unsettled weather to continue for the next couple days.

The best coverage of rain will be across the southern half of the Miami Valley, but the northern counties will still see a few stray showers today.  Here is a morning snap shot of Live Doppler 2HD:

Click HERE for the latest loop

Over the past 48-hours, this has been the trend as expected.  Take a look at the 2-day totals:

Cincinnati actually had a record rainfall yesterday–picking up 1.96 on that date… beating the previous record of 1.67, set back in 1882.

With the clouds, rain and a bit of a breeze today… it will feel cool again.  Even as we climb into the mid-upper 60s for highs this afternoon.  On Tuesday, the low will still be nearby, influencing our weather with scattered showers:

BUT it will begin to slowly move away from us, which means our highs will trend a bit warmer each day through mid-week.  The rain chances never completely go away, however, as we stick with a 20% chance of a spotty shower even Wednesday afternoon.  And towards the end of the week, we add rain chances as the next storm system approaches.

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There is a pesky low pressure area in the upper levels of the atmosphere and it is a slow mover.  This is the same system that brought chilly temperatures to Chicago and snow to Wisconsin.  Now it’s in southern Missouri and will slowly move eastward.

This storm system gave us a bit more clouds today and temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.  But still we’re near normal.

Tonight the rain will stay to the west of the Miami Valley.  But it will slowly creep northward late in the day tomorrow.

Temperatures will start out once again in the lower 50′s.

By Sunday afternoon we’ll see a bit more clouds across the area.  Temperatures will stay in the upper 60′s close to 70.  There’s a slight chance for a few showers to develop but mainly south of Dayton and later in the afternoon/evening.  This will be from the area of low pressure that will slowly pivot bands of rain northward.

As the low pressure area finally moves eastward there’s still a slight chance for a few showers Monday.

Temperatures continue to rise for most of the work week with highs in the lower 70′s.

Tara
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We’ve seen more clouds streaming through the Miami Valley ahead of a stalled front:

Once again, most of the rain (and snow… YES, snow)… will stay west of the area today.  I’ve included maybe a 10% chance of an isolated shower or two in our western counties this afternoon, but overall it looks like another nice day.  There’s certainly a lot going on this weekend, and I know everyone is concerned about whether or not it is going to rain… so here is the latest thinking:

The uppper low will cut-off from the main flow today, and then start to slowly drift east.  It is looking more and more like the unsettled weather associated with this feature will stay SOUTH of the Miami Valley.  Good news for outdoor plans… but if you’ve already done your planting, it will mean you need to water.  I have kept an ever so slight chance of a spotty shower through the weekend, but more so early next week, as we watch this system slide by.  Here is the GFS for Monday afternoon:

So maybe a 30% shot at a few showers here.

Runners will delight in the great weekend weather this weekend.  We have the Derby Day Dash going on in Dayton–emceed by our own Dan Edwards… and, of course, the Flying Pig Marathon events down in Cincinnati:

And then the Derby itself.  Because the low is moving south of us… rain chances are higher… south.  So unfortunately for horse racing fans, it looks wet at times in Louisville:

Next week, the low will slowly pull away from us and as that happens, temperatures will warm again!  We’ll be in the 70s through a good part of the week!  Enjoy!

Jamie
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We are off to another beautiful start in the Miami Valley with mostly clear skies and really comfortable temperatures in the 50s and 60s this morning.  The afternoon looks very similar to yesterday–warm with our fair share of sunshine!  Yesterday, the official high did reach 80-degrees as predicted.  Today we may be a couple degrees cooler, with a few more clouds around during the afternoon hours.

The pollen count is even higher, with trees being considered “very high”… and the mold count has come up, too:

An area of low pressure is still on track to become cut off from the main flow west of us tomorrow:

Then it will s.l.o.w.l.y. drift our way.  Most of the area will stay dry on Friday, with still that slight chance of showers, mainly in our western counties:

The rest of us have a better shot at a spotty shower on Saturday… and even more so on Sunday and Monday.  Temperatures will be heading downhill, too, as the upper low gets closer to us.  Highs over the weekend will be in the 60s!  WHICH is perfect running weather.  So if you’re running the Pig in Cincy and you don’t mind a little (possible) rain… it looks pretty good:

GOOD LUCK to all the runners and walkers!!
Jamie
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High pressure is now off to our east, and a consistent southerly flow has set up over the region.  This is bringing about a very nice start to the month of May, with morning temperatures in the mid-upper 50s… and afternoon highs expected to be near 80-degrees!  (Normal temps are 67/47).  With abundant sunshine, once again we have a high UV Index, and if you have fair skin it will only take 20-30 minutes for you to burn.

We are still watching for an area of low pressure to cut-off from the main flow at the end of the week:

This will slowly work towards us… the placement and timing are still a bit in question, as is typical of this type of low.  The old saying, “Cut off low, weather person’s woe” will ring true!  As it gets closer to us, though, the rain chances will increase and temperatures will cool to near-normal values:

Right now it looks like the slight chance of a spotty shower–especially west of town–on Friday, with the best chance of rain coming Sunday through Monday.  But stay tuned!

Jamie
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High pressure building into the region is helping to create foggy conditions across the Miami Valley this morning:

Yesterday’s fog was light… but today it’s more dense in spots.  At times, visibility will drop below a quarter of a mile.  And the visibility will fluctuate as you travel around this morning–some spots will see no fog at all, others will have it quite thick.  Here is a look at some of our weather cams from the morning drive:

You can see how things change from place to place!  The area of high pressure will bring the sunshine back this afternoon.  Yesterday, the clouds were stubborn and did not break as expected late day… so highs remained mild, in the lower 60s.  Today, we do expect the sun to warm us quickly as we head into the afternoon hours, and we should top out about ten degrees above normal–going with 77 as our high.

The warming trend continues with sunshine and a southerly flow on Wednesday, as we should be up to that 80-degree mark.  Dry weather sticks around Thursday… but a bit more cloud cover may hold temps down a couple degrees.  Still warm, in the upper 70s.  Tree pollen continues to run high, and with little change in the weather and lighter winds through the end of the week, we do expect pollen levels to stay in the high-to-very-high category, unfortunately.

Changes come as we approach the weekend.  Friday, we’ll see a slight chance of a spotty shower or t’storm… mainly in our western counties.  A better chance of scattered activity comes over the weekend as temperatures slowly cool.

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We are starting off with lots of low clouds, fog and even some mist and drizzle this morning.  The slight chance of a spotty shower will continue through early afternoon, as we stick with lots of clouds today as seen on our Futuretrac forecast model:

Clouds look to break a bit in the late afternoon and evening hours, so we should see a bit of sun before it sets.  Overnight we will be partly cloudy and dry… and we do expect more in the way of sunshine on Tuesday as a warming trend takes hold of the region.  Here is a look at how high temps play out:

You can bet pollen counts will be high again, as generally dry conditions will be with us through Thursday.  We do look to be a bit more unsettled as we get to the end of the week and weekend.  There are still a lot of questions regarding this extended forecast as an area of low pressure will move slowly towards the region.  It looks to be cut off/blocked by the end of the week, and we could be right on the edge of an area of clouds and precip:

So while not a wash-out, the chance of showers & thunderstorms may be with us for a few days.  We will keep you posted on our thinking as we head through the week!

This past weekend, I was so excited to be a part of the very first activity held in Kettering’s new Habitat & Environmental Center–previously known as Southdale Nature Center.  I actually went to camp at this facility in elementary school… so it was even more special to go back and talk weather with local children.  Here are some pictures from my visit.

Very soon, a permanant weather display–sponsored in part by WDTN–will be up for all to see.  They are also working on recycling/energy displays… and have lots of critters to meet & greet you.  Hope everyone gets to check out this fantastic nature facility!

Jamie
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Hopefully you got out and enjoyed the first part of the weekend.  Clouds have already thickened across the area and rain chances will increase later tonight.  We did see highs today slightly above normal.

This is all thanks to an area of low pressure heading near the Miami Valley later this weekend.  Clouds have increased and will stick around for the rest of the weekend.

Look for showers to develop later tonight and continue through the overnight hours.

By Sunday morning the showers will be scattered in nature.  It won’t be a complete washout but you may run into a few showers from time to time.

By Sunday night and Monday morning the storm system heads east of us and eventually our rain chances decrease.  There’s a slight chance for a few isolated showers early Monday but only around a 30% chance.

The rest of the workweek looks mainly dry with above normal temperatures.  Highs in the middle 70′s are possible for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tara
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